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Stocks End Biggest 4-Day Run In 4 Months Amid Lowest Volume Of Year

Tyler Durden's picture




 

S&P 500 futures saw the lowest non-holiday trading day volume of the year and the lowest average trade size of the year also but capped a four-day win streak (biggest in four months) with small gain. The overnight plunge in futures (on EUR weakness following the Greek #Fail) was entirely retraced - slowly but surely but once Europe closed, the US was dead. Treasury weakness and EUR strength (JPY weakness) were the correlated drivers of equity exuberance today, oil flip-flopped in its non-believing 'cease-fire' way (recoupling with gold on the week); Silver surged; and credit tended to track stocks but HY modestly outperformed (though HYG closed red). VIX traded with a 14 handle briefly but ended +0.3 vols at 15.4%. Stocks (especially the big bellwethers) tracked VWAP all afternoon as all but Johnny-5 had left the building. HP Bonds cracked, AAPL green, SPY green, HYG red, VXX green, volume negligible - that is all.

S&P 500 had its biggest four-day gain in four months

 

ETFs across the macro capital structure weren't beating to the same drum as stocks today...

 

And across asset-classes - lots of decoupling and recoupling this week, which makes sense given the lack of human involvement... Bonds and stocks exchanging swings and USD and Gold recoupling by the close...

 

High-yield credit spreads squeezed higher today, outperforming but HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) tended to underperform...

 

Commodities were mixed but Silver surged and interestingly Gold and Oil recoupled post cease-fire chatter just as they did yesterday...

 

It seemed oil prices rejected the hope that a cease-fire is really upon us...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Bonus Chart: Food for HP Thought as you gobble gobble tomorrow...HP's CDS points to considerably lower stock price...

 

HP Bonds started to crack today and yesterday falling towards CDS' view...

 

but bonds have a long way to go to really catch up...

 

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Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:22 | 3003296 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Of course volume is low.  Traders are taking a long weekend.  This is why it was rediculous for the euro bears to come out last night and scream for a higher DXY and lower equity.

But then again, euro bears are fucking idiot paper humpers.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:32 | 3003320 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

All the charts look like variations on a lit fuse.  The stick of dynamite is off the chart to the right, but I think the fuse is getting pretty short!  Back to the bunker for me.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:26 | 3003303 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

HP - the motherfuckers who sold me many faulty printers. Go die, bitches!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:30 | 3003316 vrabobabo
vrabobabo's picture

Bernanke finds hp printers cool

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:33 | 3003323 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

This week is total BS.  Start shorting again next week.  

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:37 | 3003334 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Tremendous Slaughterer. My favorite post yet.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:45 | 3003353 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Like a perfect whore, I flip with the direction of the market, and I stay true to nothing.  There is no reason to be dogmatically long or short.  Just tactical, short-term positions.  No need to be a hero.  Post-heroic trading required, otherwise you end up like that dude from UBS: prison raped for 7 years.   

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:58 | 3003369 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Just don't jump short too soon. Wait for the volume to really dry up and let this move run a little bit longer than you think it has a right to. I'm all over this short opportunity again when it presents itself. Looks to me like a fifty percent re-tracement of the indexes move down is more than likely before the easy money will be made going short.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 18:05 | 3003382 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You ebb and flow I give you that but you are an unabashed bull. But who cares, it's about making money.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:49 | 3003358 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

#DIV/0!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 18:02 | 3003377 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

getting a little squeeze right now, went short at 88.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 18:38 | 3003450 chump666
chump666's picture

Markets took cue from the Shanghai commie ramp end session, trumped the EUR/Futures sell off.  That's all.  Bulls couldn't take this higher Because volumes didn't exist so the HFTs just traded the ranges,.  Could break out up the upside, all about the DXY that has flat-lined, you need that to collapse for a santa rally, other wise liquidity is tightening and NO ONE will be buying in end year.

There is a big short here, looking tight and...

Nasty.

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 19:07 | 3003486 adr
adr's picture

Proof of the eternally broken market is Facebook up to four month highs and Groupon soaring almost 40% in one week.

REALLY??!?!!!?!

Who is buying this garbage. Lockup expiration is the most bullish thing for Facebook since the company went public? I mean if you trade on charts, then you might as well go all in on Facebook because it looks like $30 is a lock. At least that is what the basement dwelling daytraders on CNBS will tell you.

Groupon, what the capital F'in hell.

On thanksgiving I will pray for torches and pitchforks.

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:03 | 3003490 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

The rally is suspect.

 

Volume has not confirmed price action. Volume has been steadily declining in the last four days. Furthermore, volume at key pivot lows has been bearish.More on the bearish volume pattern here:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-update-for-nov-21-...

 

Furthermore, last Nov 16 the Dow Theory flashed a primary bear market signal.  So the odds favor lower prices in the future. On average primary bear markets have lasted ca. 6 months. So, while nothing is carved in stone, it seems that we are merely witnessing a bear market rally. Those brave of heart could even attempt to short.

 

More on the primary bear market signal and the relevant chart here:

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-special-issue-afte...

 

 

 

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 20:36 | 3003633 Benjamin Glutton
Benjamin Glutton's picture

POMO front running fiscal cliff compromise,imo.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 21:32 | 3003742 h0oS
h0oS's picture

Oddly enough I did my largest shit since the last four days as well. Holy (or a seasonal holly) turd crap man!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 22:16 | 3003791 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

Consider that HP was one of the world's best-managed companies for several decades when a couple of Stanford engineers (Bill & Dave, the founders) ran the company. HP made products that you could throw off a truck and keep working, laser printers that lasted longer than their support life, workstations and servers that were the envy of the competition.

Then what happened? First the statists then the bean-counters and then the self-promoting marketeers took over. The company made one ill-advised acquisition after another, one strategic blunder after another as management got dumbed down and the Board of Directors became ineffective, timid, too-fat-and-happy wonks who never stopped breathing their own exhaust.

After devoting 20 years of my career (up to Director level) to HP, I left the company because it was too painful to watch its nascent demise. When I joined, back in the 70's, HP was a company you could really love and take personal pride and joy in building its success. Twenty years later it became a blundering behemoth bent on self-annihilation. 

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