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What Happened In The Fall Of 2010?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A funny thing happened in the fall of 2010. Global equity markets went from the relatively 'normal' reflection of fundamental trends in earnings to an entirely disconnected 'keep equity valuations high at all costs' centrally-planned environment divorced of fundamental support (no matter how many times we are told 'stocks are cheap'). What happened and who broke the markets 'saved the world'?

 

 

Hint: ryhmes with 'who he blew'

 

Source: Bloomberg Chart of the Day

 

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Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:49 | 3002499 climber
climber's picture

Our kids will be playing with squirrels...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:06 | 3002578 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Our kids will be eating squirrels.

Fixed it.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:12 | 3002602 Jason T
Jason T's picture

That's what they ate in the last great depression...who knows how many starved to death.  

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:22 | 3002655 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

The squirrels will be eating our kids.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:54 | 3003016 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@zebrasquid

Post of the month.  Easily.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 01:24 | 3003983 monogratis
monogratis's picture

Save the Acorns and the Planet!  Kill the squirrels and eat the children!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:53 | 3003011 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Winston Churchill

Here in Louisiana and much of the South, squirrel is the first date on the fall hunting schedule.  I don't know how many people enjoy it, but I can assure you it is eaten regulary every September.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:08 | 3003260 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Don't care for it myself.

Can't get it out of my head that its a tree rat.

Live in the South myself.Love rattlesnake and gator,frogs ,but draw the line at rat.

Had dog once,didn't know it the time.The Indian curry house was raided next day,

and an Alsation was  found in the fridge.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:52 | 3002507 Conman
Conman's picture

Blame it on the algos, they have made the market a complete farce. It no longer represents companies future earnings, but is just a reflection of expectation of future bailouts.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:39 | 3002745 archon
archon's picture

It's like the ugly girl who wears too much makeup - just enough to hide her true ugliness, but no amount of makeup can fix that kind of ugly.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:53 | 3002510 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

QE2????

 

(Jumping up and down clapping hands)

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:56 | 3002530 Danks18
Danks18's picture

Nope, it's John Sununu.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:06 | 3002576 HD
HD's picture

Sorry, it's Dr.Fu Manchu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fu_Manchu

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:45 | 3002983 negative rates
negative rates's picture

No, it was I, grasshopper.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 18:20 | 3003408 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Who is Richard Koo...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:53 | 3002512 jim249
jim249's picture

The most important shopping days of the year coming up. No way the fed is going to let the markets drop. Got to get those sheepel out spending!

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:55 | 3002521 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Catch yall niggas down around 1250ish..  but thinking 1403 first...

http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:56 | 3002524 oldfruit1
oldfruit1's picture

ina drew? why the fuck would she want to keep the market up?

conspiratoiral BS to explain you faulty analysis and forecasts tyler ? ;)

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 13:57 | 3002534 benbushiii
benbushiii's picture

The algos / HFT are allowed to exist because they enable the direct tranmission of market manipulations by the FED.  Whom was buying the Euro last night and printing dollars to protect the markets?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:03 | 3002560 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

It really is the overnight futures market and the graveyard shift at the NYFED which is responsible for this splt since Fall of 2010, after the massive dead cat from ES 666 petered out.  

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:13 | 3002540 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

When confidence/perception is reality, man the CON.

<Aye aye Captain Ben.>

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:00 | 3002543 nolla
nolla's picture

Well, all this whining and crying about stupid algos and stupid momos and stupid this and stupid that...

So, are you really thinking that the UST 10y or German 10y Bund are the Best Investments around? With a yield under 1 3/4%? If not, then buy equities, simple as that.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:02 | 3002555 oldfruit1
oldfruit1's picture

exactly .. the fuckwits here dont get that flattening the yield curve means you need to chase return in equity. there doesnt have to be a hidden conspiracy .. the fed openly just crushes the yield curve .. so your grand conspiracy is actually right under your nose .. its just you dont fucking get it. 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:05 | 3002571 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i think zh put it better when it said u buy bonds now for total return and stocks for income. complete reversal. performance seems to bear that out. the 10yr could outperform stocks all the way to negative yields. seems like a lot of people have not figured that out.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:43 | 3002762 funthea
funthea's picture

Forest... Meet trees.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:25 | 3002913 hussaifa
hussaifa's picture

Uh...that does not explain the massive equity fund outflows and correspondingly large bond fund INflows from the ICI fund flow data, the supposely large amount of money market fund cash reportedly "on the sidelines", yestreday's post on ZH about large amounts parked in savings accounts, nor the lack of equity daily trading volume (though its hard to trust any data these days). If it is not in some way manpulated, then I think we would all love to hear your obviously rational explanation so that we can shed our "fuckwitdom" for your relative "genius". 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 22:48 | 3003832 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

You're kind of a dumbass, aren't you?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:03 | 3002559 Conman
Conman's picture

What was worse buying HP stock or staying in cash or those crappy treeasuries like you say.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:11 | 3002599 nolla
nolla's picture

Good point with HP, but that's not my definition of a diversified portfolio.

Look, I don't like too much what the CB's are doing, I don't. But today, when I thought that here in Europe the stock market is a bit ahead of itself I thought that instead of shorting stock futures I did my habit of buying Bund instead. But it's not fun! Bund future is in a ridiculous level at 142 and change, meaning a yield of 1,43%. Huh, come on, it's just one week of equity bull and the Bund future drops to a massive and critical support level of 138 - huge losses already there. But 138 is still LESS than 2% yield for a 10 years investment. Not my game. 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:27 | 3002676 Conman
Conman's picture

HP is just 1 example. FB, zynga, nflx, gmcr. chk. list goes on and on and on and on.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:44 | 3002767 nolla
nolla's picture

HD, DIS, even (god forbid) TOL.. no, still not the point. The point is this:

If Santa Claus is giving you a portfolio that you must keep the next 10 years, which one you would take: QQQQ (or SPY) vs. UST 10y?

I think the answer is simple.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:04 | 3002565 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Not so simple. Equities are set to boom in nominal terms and crash in real terms. Buy silver. Silver is set to rise 30X in real terms.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:00 | 3002550 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

Check out this picture from a town in New Jersey. The place is falling into tribalism. Total chaos. Our future I fear.

http://www.vulgartrader.com/post/36155543079/a-break-with-civilization-t...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:03 | 3002841 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

I live about 30 mi from that town ...it's very blue collar ,this sign was put up after Sandy people were patrolling the streets with shot guns and the police did't stop them from doing so ...

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 23:08 | 3003857 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Defending your home against loser fucks is tribalism and that's a bad thing?  Didn't see any tribes in that picture, just a sign painted by good, wholesome Americans fed up with loser fucks.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:04 | 3017368 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

I'm not saying it's bad, but that it's necessary is bad.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:10 | 3002592 falak pema
falak pema's picture

QE2 and the massive increase to BOT algos; We know that; we have been educated by ZH.

TY, lets move on to 2012. >Two years later the inevitable meltdown has not occurred as CB QE shenanigans now have put the whole planet on that trajectory in unsion. Global subterfuge.

Until it hits the asymptote...but when? 

We all seemed to believe that the current US reserve/FED system would lose its resilience in 2015-17 period...At least that was what was felt as when the debt accumulation in current paradigm would lead us to the wall.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:19 | 3002641 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I'm planning on the end of 2014 being TSHF date.

If its later no matter.But by then is the time to have all your ducks

in the proverbial row.Better too soon than a moment late.

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:53 | 3002814 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Can I take that date to the bank?  Shit, wrong word, my bad!  ;)

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:05 | 3002844 Carnegie_IB
Carnegie_IB's picture

I think this movie trailer helps support your line of thinking. 

 

http://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A2KLqIK8Ja1QggUAFy77w8QF;_...

 

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:17 | 3003284 aerojet
aerojet's picture

You sound like one of those doomsday cults.  They predict the end of the world, get it wrong, and then come up with some bs reason why they were wrong and it's still 1-2 years from the mistaken date.  Heaven's Gate at least created their own localized end of the world.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:23 | 3003299 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Financial Armageddon.

Math, not misguided faith, predicts that future.

Go back  to sleep,you will need it.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:21 | 3002645 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

-

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:36 | 3002725 csmith
csmith's picture

QE2 happened and everybody saw it coming.

QE1 was different. It was stealth. It had happened before anybody really KNEW it was needed (And it WAS needed - if only to keep the system from collapse)

Today people act like each episode of QE was a natural, perfectly foreseeable progression. They weren't.

QE1 kept things from flying apart. QE2 was an ADMISSION that the system was still badly damaged. QE3 was more of a hope-laden booster shot for an economy that people recognize is not really going anywhere, but is at least stable.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 14:39 | 3002744 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what about QE7?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:14 | 3002879 e-man
e-man's picture

Everyone keeps using that word. I do not think it means what they think it means.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 11:34 | 3004495 Ctrl_P
Ctrl_P's picture

By the way, you do not happen to have 6 fingers on your right hand?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 07:07 | 3004170 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

If the Devil is 6, then God is 7.  This market's going to Heaven....

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:07 | 3002850 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

"What happened in 2010?"

 

Wall Street went full retard?

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:18 | 3003288 aerojet
aerojet's picture

IIRC, it was the second time that money were about to break the buck and all hell was going to break loose.  So they fixed it--for good.  It's not a market in any real terms anymore, though.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 15:10 | 3002865 holgerdanske
holgerdanske's picture

So what is it going to be?

I have expected a collaps for 4 years, still nothing. My brain tells me it has to come, but history shows it can take a while.

 

I am getting so tired of all of this. I could have doubled my money investing in stock. Hang on, I did buy gold and did double my money.

 

Rant over :-)

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 17:14 | 3003274 phoolish
phoolish's picture

There's no telling how much is now owned by the world's CB's and equivalents.

 

 

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 19:30 | 3003531 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Fuck You???

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 21:01 | 3003681 Invisible Hand
Invisible Hand's picture

OT, but earlier squirrel comments made me think about this.

I ate a lot of squirrel growing up in Appalachia.

Not too bad if you are OK with dark meat (a squirrel is a rodent, but not a rat).

One difference being poor made was that you never saw rabbits, squirrels or deer, they were afraid of people for good reason.  People ate them because they needed the meat.  My great-uncle next door liked possum but I could never bring myself to try it.

My dad would go out early and bag a couple with his .22 (that requires good shooting) before going to the cotton mill for 10 hours of hard work.

It was free meat (cost about 2 cents for a .22 LR back then).

I'm guessing we'll all be happy to have squirrel in the not too distant future.

Wed, 11/21/2012 - 23:13 | 3003863 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

I still eat squirrel. No one bothers me when I eat it. They don't understand that you have to go outside (perish the thought), find the right trees, sit or stalk, take good aim, shoot and hit, gut, skin, cut up, saute or bake, serve, cut, chew, savor, think, reflect. 

 

All of that without doing the factory-farm-to-supermarket fiat sprint and gulp.

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