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All You Need To Know About Argentina's Upcoming "Technical Default"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Technically, a technical default may still be avoided, but it is now unlikely. As the following presentation from JPM's Vladimir Werning shows, the market has already decided what the "next most likely big picture step" will be. The big question is what the less than big picture next steps will be. And as the following flow chart of options to all "potentially" impaired parties shows, there are quite a few possible steps as the variety of causal permutations has suddenly exploded. For everyone who has gotten sick and tired with following the sovereign default story of one Greece and Spain, please welcome... Argentina, where things are about to get a whole lot more interesting.

Next steps: A nerve-wrecking December for bondholders on all sides.

Risk of “technical default”: Where does it lie within the payment chain and why?

Risk of “technical default”: A payment chain is as strong as its weakest link

Full presentation:

 

 

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Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:49 | 3005071 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

They should just Default already....Bitchez

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:23 | 3005370 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It that like a technical cancer? Just wait and we will find a cure??

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:55 | 3005086 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Hysterical.  Two fucking words: It's over!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:18 | 3005121 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

What is over? I live in Argentina, they fucked me once and many others , this time the funds and the banks are left with the shit debt , not many small or medium investors holding debt this time.....life will continue here after the coming default , the dollar will probably double and life will become cheap for me once again, not to mention i am waiting to pay for a mantion at half price.,,,soon very soon...
I don,t understand what is funny , you missed out on an opportumity 10 years ago and you will lose on it again,,, less laughing more doing...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:25 | 3005183 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Lou Reed - Last Great American Whale (Live at Farm Aid 1990)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbBB8QEbUtg

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:51 | 3005240 Ajas
Ajas's picture

"this time the funds and the banks are left with the shit debt , not many small or medium investors holding debt this time"

This is an odd comment.  So the banks have no capital and all the debt is externalized.... is good?  Severing ties with the international debt market has only had one conclusion ever.  And "the dollar will probably double and life will become cheap" is not it.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:46 | 3005320 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Do you have your money in a safe in your house?  And if so is it dollars or pesos.  Because if your money is in the bank then they may not give you dollars at all (which they did back in 2000 when Argentina had it's debt crisis).  They will give you devalued pesos and won't allow banks to give out what dollars they have.  What will happen is the same thing that happened in 2000 but worse and will last longer. 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:35 | 3005421 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

I think european's savings are more in danger than ours.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 07:32 | 3005901 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Depends how your saving, nice shoes!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:13 | 3006109 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

like i said they fucked me once, no my money is NOT in Argentinian banks.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:24 | 3005522 I Miss Tony DeF...
I Miss Tony DeFranco and the DeFranco Family's picture

I lived in Argentina for four years but am back in the states because I ran out of money and had to come back to rescusitate my business. I agree that the Argies will keep on, keeping on... they know how to survive, especially when the Amercians and Europeans keep showing up to be fleeced. Learn how to use that Spanish keyboard, friend. 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:18 | 3006131 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i use the coma that way on purpose, i love typos, spanglish and the sorts,

mientras you arn,t slow and undertsand teh setnence.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 01:32 | 3005736 xxxxx
xxxxx's picture

I regret not going down there then. I hope I get another chance. Right now it must be hell with the current inflation, no imported goods and no ability to convert peso's into dollars.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 06:36 | 3005889 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Hell? It's elsewhere these days.

Inflation is relative.

No such thing as "no imported goods".

No such thing as "no ability to convert pesos into dollars".

Take a look at the fundamentals and read some data.

"Growth in foreign trade, especially trade with MERCOSUR partners, has been one of the main factors driving the Argentinean economy. Argentina is a major importer of industrial and computing machinery and parts, industrial supplies, automobiles and other consumer durables, refined fuels and lubricants. Main import partners are Brazil, European Union, United States and China. This page includes a chart with historical data for Argentina Imports."

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/imports

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:20 | 3006140 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

toy con vos, yo vivo en el paraiso.
huevo eres tu?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 17:34 | 3007374 Tursas
Tursas's picture

Iran learned how to change oil to gold with Turkey - and we all know that no gold carrying donkey has ever been  stopped by a closed gate!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 07:34 | 3005900 Snake
Snake's picture

 

It's not hell at all XXXXX.  In fact, the world bank stated last week that "Between 2003 and 2009, the number of middle class inhabitants has been doubled in Argentina, from 9.3 million to 18.6 million".  It's all over the web.

I was there for a month last week.  People are happy, aware of how lucky they are living in peace, going out in droves to eat amazing food, drink great wines from the skirts of the Andes and have a great time.  Argentines are very social people.  This is a country where folks are not desperately alone.  Add a rich emotional life, good food, huge aquifers and tons of energy (just in shale oil so far: Vaca muerta, 20 some billion barrels).  Argentines are aware of what they have.  Yes, there are movements, politics at work, public complains.  That is the nature of a true democracy, people have different opinions and they have the right to express them out in public, safely and without repression.  Construction in B.A. has slowed down a little, true; and yet, it's hard to find a square block without something new going up.  All bought on cash.  In fact construction has had an amazing boom for the last ten years, all bought on cash.  Without a doubt, it is a very rich country with a corrupt upper class (not all of them really, but most) of rich landowners (now complainers), secular agents of imperial world centers (London: 1810 - 1914, New York 1914 - [less and less] to the present) international banksters and (today) vulture funds, used to decide who was the dictator in charge.  These, now increasingly jailed puppet dictators and international (especially media) corporations and their (let me say it again) local and international agents are fully aware that their time has ended.  There is a new geopolitical situation in a country (a whole subcontinent) where it's past and recent painful history taught people a very hard (and well learned) lesson, avant-garde of what's happening in Europe today.  Of course this is just an opinion, a reading.  Regardless of "scientific" charts in techni/color carefully done by banksters [suddenly used as epitomes of credibility???] du jour we all see, read, perceive - and understand - what we can.

 

 

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 05:59 | 3005873 bushwarcrime
bushwarcrime's picture

Keep up the good work samcontrol,

don't mind the yanktards who've never been out of the trailer park

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:17 | 3005120 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

Can anyone suggest channels/ways to trade Argentina financial instruments

- Argentine Peso is not offered by any FX online broker i spole with

- Argentina bonds is pretty much impossible for retail investors

- ADR share of argentinian company does not give proper exposure to argentina troubles

 

anyone know of an ETF , a platform or something ? 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:23 | 3005125 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

as i mention above , the financial instrument is US$ , if they devalue say 50 percent in one go, dollar is king...as always here. When that happens , take a trip to patagonia and i will show you financial instruments..

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:18 | 3005122 Manthong
Manthong's picture

It's just a good thing that no real default that triggers a cascade of synthetics will occur.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:07 | 3005169 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

I bought ARP9028N1016 for 5 USD. What shall I do to become sustainable and save the world's climate?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:11 | 3005174 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The pictures don't due justice to the extent of the clusterfuck

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:38 | 3005190 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

I'm very curious about this process. I want to see if the wild capital is stronger than States. We'll see if we re-establish States sovereignity (which could happen in many ways) or if we loose it for good (also possible).

And is not as important for Argentina (which is practically self-sustainable) as it is for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, even Italy and others.

Is this the end of the Nation States stage? (As we know, State as institution has been weakened for decades).

It's the start of the NWO?

New geopolitical blocks are perhaps going to be set?

May some other actors have something to say (and do) on the subject?

And let's not forget Argentina produces food for apross. five hundred milion people with a population of 40m.  That's collateral, folks.

Interesting, isn't it?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:58 | 3005503 machineh
machineh's picture

Maybe it's the end for La Viuda Negra, Kristina Kirchner.

What an ignorant, belligerent peasant! Not even a competent lawyer ... maybe something wrong with Arg. educational system?

If a biographic movie about Kristina is ever made, it should be titled 'Memories of Underdevelopment.' She thinks like her Third World heroes, Chavez and Evo Morales.

Or maybe she'll retire and write an auto-ayuda best seller -- "THINK AND GROW POOR" ... ja ja ja ja ...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:29 | 3005526 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Well, she looked a lot more competent that those Harvard boys who posed "their" questions to her some weeks ago, didn't she?

Ignorant? I think she knows more than some would like.

Belligerent? Would you prefer a less "belligerent" person as Monti, Samaras, Rajoy perhaps?

Undervelopment... Hey, we've managed to keep our Central Bank in our hands, bro. 

Anyway, we don't feel "underveloped". Most of us just like other "development" that the one of the "First World".  See, that's quit a tight vision of yours, pal. I'd love a Dolce & Gabbana dress but I wouldn't like to have it meanwhile kids around me were starving. I'd rather buy food for the kids and that, my friend, looks more "developed" to me.

I have priorities.

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:38 | 3005934 Snake
Snake's picture

Here are good examples of what I see as both sides of Argentina today.  Machineh ... what I called "complainers", agents ... Shrill, disrespectful "upper class" putting down a "peasant".  Complaining about an educational system they themselves dismantled in favor of "private"- everything (sounds familiar?), lacking creativity, quoting a 1968 tired old movie ("Memories"), scared of new geopolitical movements that include mestizos and indigenous populations.  The tone of the final laugh says it all ...  Is this an example of a good education?

In contrast, look at Tntarg, a more typical Argentine of today, skeptic but well balanced, watching here and there, pondering, never shrill, trying to dialog.

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:29 | 3006757 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Here goes my +1 to you:

"Shrill, disrespectful "upper class" putting down a "peasant".  Complaining about an educational system they themselves dismantled in favor of "private"- everything (sounds familiar?), lacking creativity, quoting a 1968 tired old movie ("Memories"), scared of new geopolitical movements that include mestizos and indigenous populations.  The tone of the final laugh says it all ...  Is this an example of a good education?"

We could truly have a better World of real freedom, even free markets (wich we don't right now) but as History tells, we're stucked because few humans won't decline on endless ambition of Power by any means.

I see them as primitive, barbarian, restless people. What a paradox: They feel "superior"  as they behave like hungry beasts.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 02:55 | 3005800 Rick64
Rick64's picture

It seems you are clueless. The Argentine debt problem dates back to former regimes that played ball with the bankers.  The game is you take away any protectionist barriers, privatize some sovereign owned assets, buy goods from us (including weapons) then we give you access to huge loans to modernize and industrialize your country. That money is then used to line everybodies pocket that is in power while they are developing transit, utilities, and manufacturing. Of course they have to use certain multinational companies to do this (halliburton, bechtel, GE, ect..) as part as the conditions for the loan from the IMF and major banks. Then you cause a financial crisis and they can't pay the loans back, this is where the IMF does a debt restructuring which translates into we buy all your soveriegn assets at bargain prices to help relieve the debt repayment and let us set up military bases on your soil. Well Kirchner said no on the grounds that it was odiuos debt, and the bansters ended up taking a 60% haicut. Kirchner is looking good in my eyes.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:23 | 3006550 piceridu
piceridu's picture

This is coming to many nation states: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsn_cCXHAvE&playnext=1&list=PL94072D24DDD...

Argentines are now experts at barter...

Sat, 11/24/2012 - 09:37 | 3008271 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

That was in 2001.

Right now it's in the past for us but you're right: it's already started in Greece, Spain and other States. Seems to be near in the future in many other States too.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:58 | 3005203 Rari Nantes In ...
Rari Nantes In Gurgite Vasto's picture

So Vladimir, shall I buy or shall I sell? or shall I Elliott it ? 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:14 | 3005209 XenOrbitalEnginE
XenOrbitalEnginE's picture

Some legal latin in there :  default on a pari passu.  This is the assumption that a legal entity has the same rights as some other legal entity.

Lawyers hide meaning like that to avoid looking like decisions can be common-sense.  Go through the lawyer, pay the fee, get a dead language lesson.

Governments typically think "but I'm different" and blow right through the "Pari Passu".  (Actually, I'm tempted to say all people think this.   People in governments tho, so Hokay.)

 

XOE

 

P.S.  Of course I read the flowcharts first.   Latin stuff explained on the top lines!  Sorry for overexplaining!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:01 | 3005253 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

poor Argentinians. Absolutely beautiful country runs by thieves for generations. At least that is how it looks from here. 

How much did you say I could get Patagonia for?....for Mendoza? ....how about just Cerro Torre ...a bit of Aconcagua>

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:44 | 3005316 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Sounds familiar anybody?

Anyway,  thieves weren't all argentineans, you know? You must know that at least, I hope.

You can't get Patagonia nor Mendoza except you come wiht NATO force. But everybody can share those beauties with us.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:16 | 3005267 walcott
walcott's picture

Get your TV's while you can bitchez!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:16 | 3005269 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

Amongst other stories of this fuckhole of a country (government only mind you not the people nor the things and places to experience like maybe Iguazu falls.... not to be missed) I was on a bus for a five hour ride to Mendoza with a lady next to me in her 60's in 08 and was informed of the mistrust and total fraud of  the government. They just overnight take your bank account and then tell you the next day what it is now worth. Then they take over the pensions. Then they take over the oil companies.

I have no idea how Bonner and Galt's Gulch or whoever else is promoting investing or living in Argentina but if I were you I would stay as far away from that country as possibe.

Just my 2 pesos worth.

Buenos Aires is a great visit though. Just dont live there.

Went with my friend who never played craps and we took a Kirchner owned casino in BA for $500.00 in ten  minutes with his lucky rolls. So fuck Bernanke and FUCK KIRCHNER

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:32 | 3005298 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

What a tinny knowledge of Argentina you have.

And about History, well! Banksters took savers' money, pal, just as they do all over the West.

It's amazing how little people knows, everywhere, about how things really are. With THAT very short knowledge common people take decisions and well, we'll see how wonderful things work. Rather than the era of knowledge I would say this is the orwellian era.

Orwell's imagination didn't go this far, thoug.

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:17 | 3005355 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

So how is really then Arg. You live there. Whats up.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:56 | 3005416 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Beautiful. Full of life. You just have to leave the Capital and be ready to drive.

Complex realities. Diversity of people and traditions.

Amazing food quality.

Plenty of space.

Brave fighters, even in such unequal battles.

And some mercenaries, as everywhere.

I love it.

 

(Nobody is weeping here except some dictators who are being put in prison, some - not all - corporations who are being exposed and some - not all - politicians who are running out of voters).

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:47 | 3005494 Snake
Snake's picture

I'm glad someone can give a true picture of Argentina TNTARG.  Thank you.  I travel to B.A. often, and I fully agree with your evaluation.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 07:50 | 3005908 machineh
machineh's picture

All true, but with one glaring omission: chronic 30 percent inflation, produced by a central bank dimwit who says an exploding money supply has nothing to do with inflation.

Oh -- and AFIP (the Argentine IRS) sniffer dogs at airports and ferry terminals, trying to catch Arg. citizens with dollars or the euros in their pockets. Only the gov't, see, can give Argentina's 'little people' permission to escape from their crumbling peso, which is virtually worthless outside its own borders.

Argentina is the world's only 'formerly developed' country, because Peronist flakes like its current joke of a presidenta, Kristina Kirchner, have robbed it blind. Now she's trying to shut down the opposition newspapers. SWEET -- if you're a Kirchner acolyte like our helpful Argentine correspondent!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:46 | 3005936 Snake
Snake's picture

 Be honest.  She is not "trying to shut down the opposition newspapers".

She is enforcing a media law, voted by a majority in congress (when her

party was a minority) to prevent the obscene manipulations of media monopolies

(agents, agents, agents) forcing people to watch and read what they wanted.

Said monopolies were well known and documented voices (for example) of the

military dictatorship of 1976 - 1982.  See: Herrera de Noble and Papel prensa.

That's all for today :))

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:38 | 3006693 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

That's the way it is, she's actually trying to enforce freedom of speech but as we all know you won't acknowledge that by mainstreams. As I said before the INGSOC and the Propaganda Agency is working very well around the World. Argentina goes (allow me) contrario sensu and so we HAVE TO BE PUNISHED for such an affront. What irresponsible, belligerent people we are!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:25 | 3006153 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

i have been here 25 years, and i don,t fully agree.

close but with a little bs the argentine way, nice , big friendly and slow moving....

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:36 | 3005535 I Miss Tony DeF...
I Miss Tony DeFranco and the DeFranco Family's picture

Amazing food quality? WOW! Eat the food there and you get the green-apple-quick-step for days. 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:43 | 3005686 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Perhaps you went to McDonalds.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:19 | 3005273 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Don't worry, Their fearless leader has it all under control.  Once she gets her lips redone.

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/96348

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:23 | 3005282 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Repudiate that debt bro. Nothing I like to see more than a bankster losing money.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:52 | 3005497 Snake
Snake's picture

Cristina is ready to tell them (Griesa, funds, banksters and their Argentine and foreign agents): "Stuff the frigate up  ur ass.  You are getting zilch from us".  The lady has guts; that's why they (you know who you are) hate her.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 07:55 | 3005912 machineh
machineh's picture

Ah, so Snake comes out as a Kirchnerite, tambien!

Bet he's a Magic Money Tree guy too -- Argentina's inflationist central banker is a kind of hero to the MMT cargo cultists.

Print till you're rich! We just need a little more time, while millions protest in the streets.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/argentina-protests-thousands-flood-streets-1426641

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 09:09 | 3005948 Snake
Snake's picture

Media, media, media.  A media article proves nothing.  Should I trust everything written?  That's a medieval trust in the written word.  We live the XXI flood of written (dis)information.  Finding something even close to truth takes a lot of time and reading, right and left dear friend.  Kirchnerite because I write about a great Argentina?  Isn't that a manichean notion of friends or enemies, with me or against me, sionism or antisemitism? No, my friend, my vision of the world is way more complex than that. 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:30 | 3005295 Jalaluddin
Jalaluddin's picture

May we compare the economic casualty "technical default" with the military casualty "lightly killed"?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:50 | 3005379 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 "I think you sunk/repossessed my "Ancient War Vessel"?

  "Nope, you just sunk your "Sovereignity"!  Good luck with the " Loan Sharks"!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:45 | 3005412 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

California is taking extensive notes on this.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:21 | 3005469 KanKhaderKhanKan
KanKhaderKhanKan's picture

The vulture fund that's taking to Argentina to court (Elliot Management) isn't that the same company that bankrolled Romney's election? And according to Greg Palast didn't this company, along with Mrs Romney, violate a federal ethics law in the not so distant past? 

 

http://www.gregpalast.com/did-the-romneys-auto-bailout-bonanza-violate-f...

 

Furthermore doesn't this trial set a dangerous precedence now? That banksters/vulture-funds can now seize any state asset abroad (eg. a nation state's navy ship) where does that leave national sovereignty or do the banksters own the globe outright now? Maybe the conspiracists were onto something after all...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:53 | 3005498 Angry White Dude
Angry White Dude's picture

I think the SDNY ought to issue Elliot et al. one of these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_of_marque

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:05 | 3005519 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Technical default=  I can't pay you.

  Thermal default= broken "knee caps"

    Nuclear default+ above defaults= "BAILOUT".... Am I wrong?

   PAWN SHOP people/ My scatter gun is loaded!


Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:40 | 3005683 Dexter Morgan
Dexter Morgan's picture

These flow charts were like, complicated, or something....they were stupid.  If I wanted to read I'd go to school.  aha ahaha  heh eh ahah

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 01:05 | 3005708 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

yes of course argentina should default after they arrest and imprison the international banking cartel members that have hijacked their government. My friends there tell me usa and eu military operatives are already in the country creating unrest and sabotage. That these people plan to take the country down, have planned it that way since the generals were falsely promised they would win the Falklands but then were left high and dry by the usa when the british warships set sail. argentina does not have much time left before the usa and bankers put it into check and it just becomes a matter of time before the country goes down into debt slavery and corruption and prison control. From there as their base the bankers will make a move on venezuela, bolivia and anybody else in the south with resources so that chinese cannot.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 07:58 | 3005913 machineh
machineh's picture

Dude, lay off the paco -- it's making you hallucinate!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cocaine_paste

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 09:10 | 3005949 Snake
Snake's picture

ad hominem

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 01:38 | 3005739 Likstane
Likstane's picture

All these graphs. charts have jp Morgan on the bottom of them.  Why would anybody give a shit what these crooks are saying/promoting/conniving?  Isn't everything they say/do disinformation?   This is kinda like trusting your government to give you the truth. 

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