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EURUSD Surges To 3-Week High; Risk-Assets Mixed

Tyler Durden's picture




 

S&P 500 futures limped 3-4 points higher from last night's close helped by a surge in EURUSD (and its correlated-ness). The most liquid FX pair in the world jumped like a penny stock up to a 1.2899 high this morning (up at three-week highs) just shy of its 50DMA. Merkel sprinkling some hope of a somehow favorable EU budget accord, no news is good news for Greece, and a Spanish reacharound auction seemed the catalysts for hope but we note two significant shifts today from the very recent risk-on regime: 1) credit markets in Europe diverged flat to lower from equities today; and 2) US equity futures also did not follow the path of least resistance higher with FX carry. Whether this is simple illiquidity is unclear; but typically on thin days, everything correlates and levitates - today in European corporate and sovereign bonds and US equities, that was not the case... and 2Y Bunds end the day back at 0.00%

 

GGBs reached a hope-fueled post-PSI high over EUR35 today... good luck...(see this post for some context)

 

As EURUSD retraces its pre-/post-election plunge...to test 1.2900

 

but... European corporate and financial credit lagged notably today relative to European stocks...

 

and European Sovereigns were stagnant today after 4 days of rallying...

 

and S&P 500 futures did not follow through with the EURUSD exuberance...

 

Gold was stable, Silver up a little, Copper tailed off into the close but oil was the worst performer among commodities back down to around $87.

 

With Treasuries closed, CONTEXT (our broad risk-asset proxy) is a little off-kilter but S&P futures are clinging pretty well to broad risk assets (as JPY offsets EUR exuberance) and credit/commodities leak...

 

S&P 500 futures remain right at the lower-end of Support/Resistance from Draghi's 9/5 pronouncements...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Thu, 11/22/2012 - 12:59 | 3004704 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Because Kevin Henry needs to celebrate Thanksgiving, there is nobody to push the correlated ES BUY button while EUR/USD rockets on Merkel rumors.  All the lights are out at NYFED :-(

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:08 | 3004728 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

Does anyone really think they will not pump the wealth and bonus effect until year-end? Gotta sell iShit

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:11 | 3004738 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

OT:  Sorry..  Don't know where else to post.

 

Obama's Gun Ban List Is Out
 

Alan Korwin - Author Gun Laws Of America GunLaws.com

Here it is, folks, and it is bad news. The framework for legislation is always laid, and the Democrats have the votes to pass anything they want to impose upon us. They really do not believe you need anything more than a brick to defend your home and family. Look at the list and see how many you own. Remember, it is registration, then confiscation. It has happened in the UK, in Australia, in Europe, in China, and what they have found is that for some reason the criminals do not turn in their weapons, but will know that you did.
 
Remember, the first step in establishing a dictatorship is to disarm the citizens.
 
Gun-ban list proposed. Slipping below the radar (or under the short-term memory cap), the Democrats have already leaked a gun-ban list, even under the Bush administration when they knew full well it had no chance of passage (HR 1022, 110th Congress). It serves as a framework for the new list the Brady's plan to introduce shortly. I have an outline of the Brady's current plans and targets of opportunity. It's horrific. They're going after the courts, regulatory agencies, firearms dealers and statutes in an all out effort to restrict we the people. They've made little mention of criminals. Now more than ever, attention to the entire Bill of Rights is critical. Gun bans will impact our freedoms under search and seizure, due process, confiscated property, states' rights, free speech, right to assemble and more, in addition to the Second Amendment. The Democrats current gun-ban-list proposal (final list will be worse):
 
Rifles (or copies or duplicates):
M1 Carbine,
Sturm Ruger Mini-14,
AR-15,
Bushmaster XM15,
Armalite M15,
AR-10,
Thompson 1927,
Thompson M1;
AK,
AKM,
AKS,
AK-47,
AK-74,
ARM,
MAK90,
NHM 90,
NHM 91,
SA 85,
SA 93,
VEPR;
Olympic Arms PCR;
AR70,
Calico Liberty ,
Dragunov SVD Sniper Rifle or Dragunov SVU, Fabrique National FN/FAL, FN/LAR, or FNC, Hi-Point20Carbine, HK-91, HK-93, HK-94, HK-PSG-1, Thompson 1927 Commando, Kel-Tec Sub Rifle; Saiga, SAR-8, SAR-4800, SKS with detachable magazine, SLG 95, SLR 95 or 96, Steyr AU, Tavor, Uzi, Galil and Uzi Sporter, Galil Sporter, or Galil Sniper Rifle ( Galatz ).
Pistols (or copies or duplicates):
Calico M-110,
MAC-10,
MAC-11, or MPA3,
Olympic Arms OA,
TEC-9,
TEC-DC9,
TEC-22 Scorpion, or AB-10,
Uzi.
Shotguns (or copies or duplicates):
Armscor 30 BG,
SPAS 12 or LAW 12,
Striker 12,
Streetsweeper. Catch-all category (for anything missed or new designs):
A semiautomatic rifle that accepts a detachable magazine and has:
(i) a folding or telescoping stock,
(ii) a threaded barrel,
(iii) a pistol grip (which includes ANYTHING that can serve as a grip, see below),
(iv) a forward grip; or a barrel shroud.
Any semiautomatic rifle with a fixed magazine that can accept more than
10 rounds (except tubular magazine .22 rim fire rifles).
A semiautomatic pistol that has the ability to accept a detachable magazine, and has:
(i) a second pistol grip,
(ii) a threaded barrel,
(iii) a barrel shroud or
(iv) can accept a detachable magazine outside of the pistol grip, and
(v) a semiautomatic pistol with a fixed magazine that can accept more than 10 rounds.
A semiautomatic shotgun with:
(i) a folding or telescoping stock,
(ii) a pistol grip (see definition below),
(iii) the ability to accept a detachable magazine or a fixed magazine capacity of more than 5 rounds, and
(iv) a shotgun with a revolving cylinder.
Frames or receivers for the above are included, along with conversion kits.
Attorney General gets carte blanche to ban guns at will: Under the proposal, the U.S. Attorney General can add any "semiautomatic rifle or shotgun originally designed for military or law enforcement use, or a firearm based on the design of such a firearm, that is not particularly suitable for sporting purposes, as determined by the Attorney General."
 
 
Note that Obama's pick for this office, Eric Holder, wrote a brief in the Heller case supporting the position that you have no right to have a working firearm in your own home. In making this determination, the bill says, "there shall be a rebuttable presumption that a firearm procured for use by the United States military or any law enforcement agency is not particularly suitable for sporting purposes, and shall not be determined to be particularly suitable for sporting purposes solely because the firearm is suitable for use in a sporting event." In plain English this means that ANY firearm ever obtained by federal officers or the military is not suitable for the public.
 
 
The last part is particularly clever, stating that a firearm doesn't have a sporting purpose just because it can be used for sporting purpose -- is that devious or what? And of course, "sporting purpose" is a rights infringement with no constitutional or historical support whatsoever, invented by domestic enemies of the right to keep and bear arms to further their cause of disarming the innocent. 
 
Respectfully submitted, Alan Korwin, Author Gun Laws of America http://www.gunlaws.com/gloa.htm
 
Forward or send to every gun owner you know...
Watch This, If You Want More Proof:
YouTube - CNN- Obama To BAN Guns SPREAD THIS FOLKS, PLZ!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nv3p2lLmjGk
 
A partial list of gun rights groups:
 
Gun Owners of America
http://gunowners.org/
 
Jews for the Preservation of Firearms Ownership http://www.jpfo.org/
 
FREEDOM=GUNS
http://www.tcsn.net/doncicci/freedom.htm
 
National Rifle Association
http://www.nra.org/
 
Second Amendment Committee
http://www.libertygunrights.com/
 
Second Amendment Foundation
http://www.saf.org/
 
Second Amendment Sisters
http://www.2asisters.org/
 
Women Against Gun Control
http://www.wagc.com/
 
 
 
 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:19 | 3004757 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Please allow me to simplify the gun ban list.

 

All Guns will be banned.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:30 | 3004936 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

Number two from the list (mini-14), blame it on the real number two - Breivik the mad Norwegian killer

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:39 | 3005307 Ginsengbull
Ginsengbull's picture

I don't know any gun owners, but if I did, I would print the list and give them a paper copy.

 

No point in making the abolishinists job easier, by allowing them to track e-mails.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:16 | 3004746 Cdad
Cdad's picture

We are four years long in the tooth...of vapor melt ups and iShit.  There comes a time when the best money move is to expect the unexpected.  With DC absolutely cornered in an unwinnable situation, a turn in trend becomes the much better bet.  And in the wake of these current and lousy corporate earnings, which The BlowHorn [CNBC] has been touting for years, the timing looks pretty good be the contrarian who decides to fight the Fed, instead.

But hey...go nuts buying Amazon tomorrow if you think today's lagging S&P futures are meaningless.  Be my guest.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:01 | 3004709 falak pema
falak pema's picture

happy thanksgiving to all Euro shorters from Count Draghi.

I hope your turkey is fine and dandy like a randy gander splt-roasted or broiled in the oven. 

Not that the euro is gonna stay dandy nor the goose gonna miss her gander.

In this game nobody stays faithful to any partner in the gravy race. 

Roller coaster rides all the way to xmas chimes! 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:22 | 3004763 magpie
magpie's picture

Why thank you FP.

Fuck Super Mario and the Nintendo Japs buying Zeuro for him.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:43 | 3004809 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I don't short, I don't long, so I'm neutral on all 4x or even on any speculative play. 

But I do eat turkey. So happy TG !

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:58 | 3004847 magpie
magpie's picture

Come to think of it, does Draghi really celebrate it - as a historical bailout of sorts ? Instead of Michealmas (time for debt payments), Martinmas (Coats sheared / Haircuts ?) maybe less, however i am equally unfamiliar with Transylvanian and Transatlantic holidays.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:06 | 3004722 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

For the love of Gawd, close these fuckin' markets and set urselves down for some Turkey, turkey.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:12 | 3004735 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

And turn off the TV....the only thing worse than going to a parade is watching one on television! Can anything be more irrelevant?!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:17 | 3004749 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Happy Thanksgiving bitchez... 

~~~

@h_h ~ We'll expect dinner table fotos... chop chop...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:17 | 3004752 dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

The dollar daily chart may be forming a giant head and shoulders pattern over the last year.  If a fiscal cliff deal is reached that pushes the pain into the future, the dollar will most likely break down and head to its 72-ish lows, which will, of course, drive all prices upward.  It will also be fueled by a possible Bernanke double-down on QEternity when Op Twist 2 ends.  We'll see how this plays out, but that's a very possible scenario as long as Europe doesn't implode in the meantime.  The opposite will happen if we get a combo of no fiscal cliff resolution, Europe implosion, or a Bernanke non-double down.  But I think the first scenario is more likely. 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:30 | 3004776 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The dollar is the most fundamentally flawed currency in the world. So it stands to reason why everyone thinks it the best of the worst.

The Euro is clearly superior.

http://freegoldobserver.blogspot.ca/2012/11/greece-portugal-spain-and-ir...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:59 | 3004853 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

The euro is crashing up ... against the US$ which died in the summer of 2011 ... can you die twice? 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 13:59 | 3004855 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Euro tops were reached on Oct 17 and Sep 17 between 131 and 132.  This move around 128-129 looks very retracement like.

 

For the US Dollar to fall, the Euro must rise - 57.6% of the US Dollar is weighted negatively against the Euro.  The US Dollar on its own cannot fall without forcing the Euro, Yen, Pound and C-Dollar to rise.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/us-dollar-falls-hard-as-bets-are-made-o...

 

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:12 | 3005236 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Charts are peaking... Need retrace in risk. Who want's to carry [open in the $] trades into a short Holiday week end?  the European Union has it's thumbs, [ firmly] inserted in their "ear sockets".

  My guess is we get some profit taking/ longs covering...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:58 | 3005327 chump666
chump666's picture

Tight market, USD/DXY spots look topped, they reverse hard you'll have a bull run till 2013.  China fudge via HSBC PMI, Japan will inflate to oblivion.  ECB will try and game the Germans, Greece is finsihed as a country.  Europe should (should being a 100% possibility) will be an all out riot zone in 2013.  HFTs running the MA's may crash this whole f*cking thing at some-point since volumes and volatility have been suppressed.

We have not had a substantial correction, substantial implying a 10% neg wipe-out.  The strange sell off after Obama got re-elected and the orderly sell and buys thereafter, are nothing.

The commie, crony capo's central bank overloads are still keeping this afloat.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:09 | 3005347 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Chump, I made a few pips. I should have traded the gbp/jpy cross.  I can't really be "candid with you " on an open thread...

 Suffice it to say, some covering is coming in a big way... You are well versed in options, so fade the DAX.

  Your brother in arms! YEN

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:41 | 3005401 chump666
chump666's picture

Yen,

I got burnt on the EUR sell off with the EU walking from Greece story, try to cover by going short  (indexes) on open.  Well you know the rest...market rallied.

I am narrowing it down to liquidity now flooding back into equities, any Wall Street profit taking was mild that and the USD has topped.

With a suppressed volatility it's very hard to find a decent position.  It's tough.   We either have a decent bull run till 2013, or a brutal sell off.  Hard to pick, but I am inclined to go long end year.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:45 | 3005413 chump666
chump666's picture

But...there is hope for the bears.  Inflation slams back into South America, Brazil/Argentina the USD black market will open up again.  Should knock their bond markets into hell and freak out USTs.  May, despite madman Bernanke and Obummer spend fest, rates may go up.  Thus sending stocks down hard.

America lives in la la land.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:12 | 3005455 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Don't trade/ponzi the euro " Chump"...  I'm just charts, not politics...  Cable bounced off that 1.59 area?

 Eur/Aud penetrated the 200 day average?  Flows are shifting...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:46 | 3005541 chump666
chump666's picture

I trade off volumes and flows, news effects that but sometimes not.  Like i said the DXY has topped, and if sells hard, we going to have a big rally (stocks) into end year.  You long EUR?  If so you may do all right.

But Europe and Asia are very overbought - equities (cept Shanghai).  A disconnect trade there, but when this blows it may start in Asia/Europe ripping into Wall Street.   I don't know when but maybe not for 2012, unless Israel drops bombs on Iran.

Good luck.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:28 | 3005524 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

and only a few days ago the story was  . . . .

Citi Has First Reaction To Moody's Downgrade: Not Surprising But More EURUSD Downside.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-19/citi-has-first-reaction-moodys-...

 

so much for theEURUSD downside, or is that next week ?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:39 | 3005538 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Screw eyes suit you well. I'll bet you are trying to break even! I'll bet you were short euro going into last week!

 

    Fíréan  Dip Shit!

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