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Michael Burry's Reminder That After Every Over-Consumption, A Brutal Hangover Is Inevitable

Tyler Durden's picture





 

On America's day most famous for over-consumption, we thought a few minutes of reflection on the state of our world would be useful. Infamous for his correct predictions of the great recession, Europe's demise, and the collapse of the US financial system (as well as profiting handsomely from being right), so well captured in Michael Lewis' book "The Big Short", UCLA's Dr. Michael Burry undertakes UCLA's Economics Department's commencement speech with much aplomb. In this "age of infinite distraction", the painful 'truthiness' of this 15 minute speech is stunning from single-sentence summation of Europe's convulsions that "when the entitled elect themselves, the party accelerates, and the brutal hangover is inevitable" he reminds us that Californians, and indeed all Americans, should take note. A quarter-of-an-hour well spent from a self-described 'chicken-little' who was "just trying to figure it all out".

 

 


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Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

worst shot you've ever tried....

For me 1/2 scotch 1/2 porridge...its called cement

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I’m sorry to say it, but UCLA is neither an Ivy League college nor a top tier school among the ranks of MIT or Stanford. Dr Paul Krugman earned his undergraduate degree from Yale, his PHD from MIT and ultimately went on to become a Princeton professor and one of the most respected economists in the world. Virtually nobody has even heard of ‘Michael Burry’, and from what I can see the only people who listen to him are doomer libertarians, raving conspiracy theorists and tiresome, moronic silverbug preppers. Maybe when Mr Burry gets some serious credentials, I’ll pay a bit more attention to his ludicrous predictions about the economy. Until then, I’ll listen to the experts.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment ultraticum
ultraticum's picture

" . . . . Until then, I'll listen to the experts."

 

MDB:  Please keep listening, and you too will get the same disastrous results as your annointed "experts", who only wish they had either the brains or the fortitude to go against the herd just once in their little establishment-indoctrinated lives.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Looney
Looney's picture

MDB = Moronic Douche Bag  ;-)

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

MDB type prostitutes have been around for a while. Tenessee Eny Ford wrote a song about them http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Joo90ZWrUkU&feature=related

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

Rather then commit suicide, the suicide candidate should print up a new currency, with some gold backing, even if it's only one ounce of gold you can scrape up, and issue $2,000 to start the new solid currency, and see what happens. The outcome can't be much worse. The gold deposit can be monitored with 24/7 internet video cam.

Give the suicide candidates something to do.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

That's not the original MDB up there (not that it matters), note the underscore character at the end of the name.

 

In any case:

"I Can't Believe I Ate The Whole Thing"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFKifpMtlNs

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

And how can anyone say any brainwashing college is worth a dam theses days.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Happy Thanksgiving, my fellow ZH diverse, motley crew of unconventional thinkers (a very good thing) & skeptics of most everything stated or pronounced by Big Brother (a very, very, very good thing).

I give thanks today for honest & bright people like Michael Burry, who still find the time & energy to go against the establishment, and lay bare truths before people just like this college graduate class he spoke to in the above-titled video.

As many here are undoubtedly aware, we are in a contracting global economy, as measured in real economic output, productivity and consumption, despite what heavily massaged statistics generated by various governmental beaurocratic agencies (such as the BLS) claim. Some could and do credibly argue we've entered a deep economic recession or even depression, and they have compelling statistics of their own to back those claims up (e.g. how understated official inflation allows GDP to print flat or positive, only due to officially "not counted" higher prices, which hides dramatically decreased consumption; e.g. how deficit-derived government spending has essentially made as many as 25% of the U.S.'s population dependant, partially or entirely, upon direct government transfer payments to meet their basic needs, such as SNAP/EBT, SSI, Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, UI & extended UI, etc., which allows the "soup lines" of the 1930s to now be hidden from view).

Here's a really interesting article that pretty much rips apart the notion that there's a "skilled worker" shortage in the United States, and lays bare the truth that many of those companies claiming this (and politicians repeating it) are essentially only willing to hire extremely highly skilled workers for what are barely above fast food worker wages, which won't even allow such workers to pay off their educational loans (another truth laid bare):

Skills Don’t Pay the Bills


By Published: November 20, 2012

Earlier this month, hoping to understand the future of the moribund manufacturing job market, I visited the engineering technology program at Queensborough Community College in New York City. I knew that advanced manufacturing had become reliant on computers, yet the classroom I visited had nothing but computers. As the instructor Joseph Goldenberg explained, today’s skilled factory worker is really a hybrid of an old-school machinist and a computer programmer. Goldenberg’s intro class starts with the basics of how to use cutting tools to shape a raw piece of metal. Then the real work begins: students learn to write the computer code that tells a machine how to do it much faster.

Nearly six million factory jobs, almost a third of the entire manufacturing industry, have disappeared since 2000. And while many of these jobs were lost to competition with low-wage countries, even more vanished because of computer-driven machinery that can do the work of 10, or in some cases, 100 workers. Those jobs are not coming back, but many believe that the industry’s future (and, to some extent, the future of the American economy) lies in training a new generation for highly skilled manufacturing jobs — the ones that require people who know how to run the computer that runs the machine.

This is partly because advanced manufacturing is really complicated. Running these machines requires a basic understanding of metallurgy, physics, chemistry, pneumatics, electrical wiring and computer code. It also requires a worker with the ability to figure out what’s going on when the machine isn’t working properly. And aspiring workers often need to spend a considerable amount of time and money taking classes like Goldenberg’s to even be considered. Every one of Goldenberg’s students, he says, will probably have a job for as long as he or she wants one.

And yet, even as classes like Goldenberg’s are filled to capacity all over America, hundreds of thousands of U.S. factories are starving for skilled workers. Throughout the campaign, President Obama lamented the so-called skills gap and referenced a study claiming that nearly 80 percent of manufacturers have jobs they can’t fill. Mitt Romney made similar claims. The National Association of Manufacturers estimates that there are roughly 600,000 jobs available for whoever has the right set of advanced skills.

Eric Isbister, the C.E.O. of GenMet, a metal-fabricating manufacturer outside Milwaukee, told me that he would hire as many skilled workers as show up at his door. Last year, he received 1,051 applications and found only 25 people who were qualified. He hired all of them, but soon had to fire 15. Part of Isbister’s pickiness, he says, comes from an avoidance of workers with experience in a “union-type job.” Isbister, after all, doesn’t abide by strict work rules and $30-an-hour salaries. At GenMet, the starting pay is $10 an hour. Those with an associate degree can make $15, which can rise to $18 an hour after several years of good performance. From what I understand, a new shift manager at a nearby McDonald’s can earn around $14 an hour.

The secret behind this skills gap is that it’s not a skills gap at all. I spoke to several other factory managers who also confessed that they had a hard time recruiting in-demand workers for $10-an-hour jobs. “It’s hard not to break out laughing,” says Mark Price, a labor economist at the Keystone Research Center, referring to manufacturers complaining about the shortage of skilled workers. “If there’s a skill shortage, there has to be rises in wages,” he says. “It’s basic economics.” After all, according to supply and demand, a shortage of workers with valuable skills should push wages up. Yet according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of skilled jobs has fallen and so have their wages.

In a recent study, the Boston Consulting Group noted that, outside a few small cities that rely on the oil industry, there weren’t many places where manufacturing wages were going up and employers still couldn’t find enough workers. “Trying to hire high-skilled workers at rock-bottom rates,” the Boston Group study asserted, “is not a skills gap.” The study’s conclusion, however, was scarier. Many skilled workers have simply chosen to apply their skills elsewhere rather than work for less, and few young people choose to invest in training for jobs that pay fast-food wages. As a result, the United States may soon have a hard time competing in the global economy. The average age of a highly skilled factory worker in the U.S. is now 56. “That’s average,” says Hal Sirkin, the lead author of the study. “That means there’s a lot who are in their 60s. They’re going to retire soon.” And there are not enough trainees in the pipeline, he said, to replace them.

One result, Sirkin suggests, is that the fake skills gap is threatening to create a real skills gap. Goldenberg, who has taught for more than 20 years, is already seeing it up close. Few of his top students want to work in factories for current wages.[continue reading via link above]

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

True. There has been no recovery.

However, the article does not explain WHY employers are unwilling to pay more to get the people they need. It doesn't add up.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:56 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Click on the link b/c the author and those he spoke with, including employers, discuss some of those potential reasons.

I only posted approximately 1/2 the article.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

Ah yes. It implies that employers are so greedy that they would rather lose sales than pay more for employees, so it says the solution is unions, and then it says that government schools have failed, so we need to give more money to government schools.

Sounds like NPR. Oh wait. It IS NPR.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

See my response further down (I'm not endorsing/agreeing with any of the "whys" cited in the article, and attribute dysfunctional supply/demand in this area with radical, unprecedented central fractional reserve bank monetary policy, more than anything).

As an aside, regardless of what these companies can or can not obtain similar skill level labor for overseas, no rational person will put the time and resources into obtaining specialized training as specifically described in the article, when alternate employment can be found paying 70% of that wage or even 100% of that wage with little to no such requirement of the investment of that time and those resources, so something is clearly broken in this equation.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:04 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

I'm that $10/hr, last job as precision manual and CNC diamond tool maker running 4 machines, got myself fired 5 months ago because I told my boss to shut the fuck up about my production or he could fire me, highly skilled CNC machinist with 30 years experience and can do anything. I also know an entry level machinist is worth less unless they have 5 years experience or more. That is a fact computers can't fix ever.

I chose the most opportune time when a company will be most damaged by my untimely exit, like I did the last time. I take long sabbaticals between quitting and firings. I've had 7 Yeas off with sabbaticals and no pay between jobs in the previous 30 years and 7 machine shop jobs. Fuck them small business small minded fuckers, that's what I say.

 

And they want to make 12 million illegal aliens legal citizens, and the globalist banksters and multinational corporations want to flood the country with millions more uneducated low wage illegal alien morons to drive down the pay of the legal Americans thru competition with them. OK, I get it. I Get IT! 

I'm not heartless. If I grant the illegals already in the country amnesty, who won't self deport, as a compromise, What do me and my fellow legal Americans GET?

How about a moratorium on immigration for 5 years so the illegals granted amnesty can be assimilated?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 14:31 | Link to Comment cheapy
cheapy's picture

I think you'd have been better off just looking for and landing another, better paying job, than to intentionally get yourself fired.  It sounds like you have the skills and experience that someone would be willing to pay more than $10 an hr for, but to take the risk to hire you, companies want good odds of getting an employee that can and will help them make a profit.

 

Just my 2 cents worth...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Binko
Binko's picture

Because the idea is now deeply embedded in the consciousness of american business owners that you only pay rock bottom wages. Many will cut their own throats before they pay decent wages to workers.

Relatives of mine owned an oil change business. They constantly complained about the workers suddenly quiting, the cost of training new workers and the poor quality of the work that caused many customer complaints and claims.

"How much do you pay the oil change guys?" I ask.

"10 bucks an hour."

"10 bucks an hour for working in a pit and doing service on expensive cars??"

"Speedy Lube trained us to check out local wages and only pay this much. We absolutely can't pay more!"

"It must be very expensive to constantly train new workers and to have to repair customer's cars and deal with customer ill will. Maybe if you paid 12 bucks or even 15 bucks an hour the workers would have more loyalty and stay longer and do better work."

At this point they look at me as if I'm some kind of communist labor agitator and basically just refuse to talk about it any longer. Higher wages, in their minds, is essentially off the table even if it would improve their bottom line. 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment cheapy
cheapy's picture

They probably aren't making enough profit to pay themselves for running the business.  In addition, once you increase wages, you have a tough time taking those increases away if it didn't cause profits to increase.  

 

If they own a large chain of the shops, they might be able to try the idea as a pilot at one where they are planning to close it down anyway, and therefore don't have much to lose by trying it.  

 

I would suggest if they think the employees could work harder/better and get the jobs done that they reduce the number of employees by 15% (perhaps by attrition or firing the ones causing claims) and giving the wage savings to the more productive employees that don't cause claims as a weekly bonus based on revenuse and claims (post a weekly chart of each by employee showing productivity and claims) .  They can then keep the overhead savings as increased profit.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You highlight some very interesting points.

If I am a business owner, and want to hire skilled workers at the present time, I need to have a relatively high degree of certainty and confidence about long term (or at the very least, intermediate term) trends, in terms of my order book, prices paid, likely revenue and profitability, before committing a large amount of working capital to expand output by HIRING additional employees, which is one of the largest constituents input costs of any business (and the highest, for most).

Maybe that's the underlying and critical problem that the article doesn't delve into or even mention:  The markets are broken by incredibly radical central fractional reserve bank monetary policy, which has distorted everything possible to such a massive degree, & completely destroyed the ability to plan ahead, since nothing can reasonably be forecasted over the intermediate, let alone long term, and therefore even those businesses that see their present order books seeming to justify such large capital outlays are not willing to make such a committment.

Bernank'd, broken, FUBARed markets.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment cheapy
cheapy's picture

No small business owner would even be THINKING about hiring additional people in this day and age unless they have obvious demand for their product or service that exceeds the ability of the existing emplyees to supply.  Taking risk to expand without demand and HOPING more customers will appear is a recipe for disaster.  

 

You don't even have a way to estimate the probability of another complete collapse or recession starting in the next 30 days, let alone try to plan a year out, 

 

I owned a few businesses over a 30 year span, and I wouldn't even consider trying again in today's environment.  I never got a "paycheck" in all thoise years, btw.  I only was able to take money out if the business was producing lots of cash in excess of costs.  When you have 20 employees to pay every week, and suppliers, and utilities and rent to pay, and you are underwater, and getting absolutely NOTHING for your 16 hr days, you don't even CONSIDER paying employess EVEN MORE, regardless of how low their wages might be from a quality of life standpoint.  That was why he was getting that look from the business owner, is my guess.  The business is barely surviving on his free labor and not returning anything on the capital he invested, and not meeting the estimates he was given when he bought the franchise, and he probably doesn't see a way to improve it, but hates even more to give up on his dream or see it ruined even further by union organizing or whatever.

 

Its just the way of the world these days.  So he complains about the claimms and productivity and lack of people that will stay and work their butts off for his $10/hr.  He can't raise prices and can't find costs to cut.  He hopes someday business will pick up...

 

Yes, just print us up some more debt money, and watch how fast it disappears off to the Far East or Middle East via WalMart and Target, or Exxon, etc.  Until we go back to making things here, and produce more thann we consume, its not going to improve, just deteriorate further into the abyss, IMO.   

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:49 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's incredibly coincidental you wrote what you did. I met with a client 3 weeks ago or so, and he literally has not paid himself any compensation in at least 7 months, in order to help improve the odds of making it through this environment with his business still intact, and because he refuses to cut anymore employees.

Now, before anyone cries for him, he's wealthy and has a lot of cash, so it's not as if he's starving. Still, he built the business from scratch starting a dozen years ago, and has put an enormous amount of sweat, toil and devotion into his business.

It's not a massive company, but it's not exactly tiny either, with around 80 employees, and it makes parts for the aviation industry.

There's no end in sight to the deleveraging and belt tightening. Bernanke and his counterparts the world over have sacrificed good, honest, ethical business owners on the altar of the myth of the too big to fail (which is unmitigated B.S.) banks, and the financial/banking sector, in general, with Wall Street as the crown princess of Bernanke's attention and adoration.

Bernanke, Geithner and Obama are running policy right now that is the textbook definition of plutocracy by the banking/financial class.

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment cheapy
cheapy's picture

I think we'd all be surprised just how typical your client's dilema is.  Yes, some, maybe many are rich, but it gets old working for nothing for months on end while everyone else at least gets a check.

 

I did a little observing this morning when I went out for groceries.  There is a Jiffy lube next door, and I counted 4 people inside, but all bays empty when I went in the grocery store.  I noticed the sign outside offering $8 off the price in the morning.  No customers anywhere in sight, and everyone just standing or sitting.  The had opened 1 hr before.  When I came out of the store I watched again for a little bit.  They had 1 car and 3 bays empty.  I assume the 5th person owned the car.  So, guessing, 3 others were employees and 1 was the owner.  So, in 30 min, they were doing 1 oil change for under $20, costing about $8 worth of oil and maybe $2 for a filter.  But if employees got $10 an hr, that would be $15 of direct labor, plus at least $5 in benefits and taxes, and guessing utilities at $500 a month and rent at $2000 and say $500 of other costs, that's $100 a day, or about $4 for that 30 min assuming they stay open at least 12 hrs.  

 

So the net is they got $20 in revenue and shelled out $34 in costs.  The owner didn't get a penny and has to pay the $14 difference out to keep the doors open.  Do that 23 more times for the day and he goes broke pretty quick losing $336 per day.  Welcome to small business USA in 2012.  The last thing the guy wants to hear is that his employees want paid more or that a customer is complaining something got screwed up and wants reimbursed to fix it.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:42 | Link to Comment Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Your last sentence doesn't make sense.  It's part of the social justice movement to think that a small business owner is not a rational human being who can make a decision that doesn't include sticking it to the proletariat.

If it improves their bottom line, they'd do it.  They'd do it over and over again and pull out all that wonderful extra cash.  People who go into business are in it for the money.  Not for social justice.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 03:04 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

I don't know how anyone makes an oil change business profitable.  Brings in $200 an hour tops, $1500 a day if you're lucky, COGS and expenses get most of it, taxes get the rest, and pray you don't get a fine from one of 50 different govt agencies looking over your shoulder or get sued by a customer, if either happens, that's it, you're bankrupt.

Just not enough money in it.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

It would help if entrepreneurship, especially on a small scale, was not made so onerous by regulation and taxation. If high-skilled workers could enter the market without impediment and hire other high-skilled workers in support then the problem could work itself out without relying on existing business owners who owe their status to lobbying and regulatory capture. When the little guy can enter the market and provide the goods and service which the big boys can't or won't and put skilled labor to work then those who are Too Big to Fail will find no support.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

That's a big part of it I believe. Big Business loves regulation, licensing and fees. They can afford it, the little guy can't = less competition.

And before some statist bonehead jumps in here on "licensing professionals" how long do you think that someone would be in business doing shoddy work? And, while we're at it...if a state issues a license to someone to practice their craft, why can't the state itself be sued along with that someone for damages...they gave him a state sanctioned seal of approval didn't they?

Its a racket.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:59 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

they gave him a state sanctioned seal of approval didn't they?

Its a racket.

 

A deadly racket. I've posted this before, forgive me if you've seen it.

 

The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection produces incomplete lab reports and uses them to dismiss complaints that Marcellus Shale gas development operations have contaminated residential water supplies and made people sick, according to court documents.

 

 

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/state/lawmaker-challenges-pa-d...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:27 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

A license is not an asset, simply an impediment to or a tax on new players entering any market at lower costs.

Buying a license does not in itself make anyone any money, apart from the licensing authority that is...

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 02:13 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

 

 

The Pennsylvania Liquor License Exchange
"Where qualified buyers meet serious sellers"

 


http://www.pallx.com/

 

 

In most states, a liquor license is considered a business asset and may be sold or transferred from one retailer to another. Often, this practice involves a business broker or a liquor license broker to facilitate a sale and the buyer must be qualified by the respective state. For instance, in the state of Florida, a buyer must apply with the Division of Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco in Tallahassee prior to buying a liquor license from a seller.

 

 http://www.ehow.com/how_7184224_sell-liquor-license.html#ixzz2D1gl93hA

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:41 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

You can't have job creation in the USA because factories that produce consumer products were removed from the country.

The Money Math for Job Creation doesn't work due to Globalization and the Federal Reserve Corporation.

Globalization = American Wage Arbitrage = Lower Worker Pay

Federal Reserve Corporation = Private Company that Manufactures Paper Money and Sets its Value, and continually reduces the value of the money by printing more and more of it out of thin air.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

...and sends that cheaply produced money (it's free!) overseas for tangible goods. In a sound monetary system wealth tends to remain at home due to its value rather than go abroad due to its cheapness. This tendency of wealth to remain at home is what Adam Smith meant when he spoke of the "invisible hand."

 

But the annual revenue of every society is always precisely equal to the exchangeable value of the whole annual produce of its industry, or rather is precisely the same thing with that exchangeable value. As every individual, therefore, endeavours as much as he can, both to employ his capital in the support of domestic industry, and so to direct that industry that its produce maybe of the greatest value; every individual necessarily labours to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain; and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was no part of it. By pursuing his own interest, he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good. It is an affectation, indeed, not very common among merchants, and very few words need be employed in dissuading them from it.

 

 

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/3300/3300-h/3300-h.htm

 

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment cheapy
cheapy's picture

Its really pretty simple.  Manufacturers here can't afford to pay a reasonable wage for the skilled people or else their costs rise to where they would be better off moving offshore to reduce costs and maintain their ability to compete and hopefuly make a profit.  So, in the one sense they can honestly say they can't find skilled people, but the reality is they aren't willing to pay enough for the real skilled people to want their jobs.  

 

Is it their fault?  They can't compete with Chinese wages at 1/5th or 1/10th of US wages and taxes and overhead costs also at fractions of our costs here.  Their only advantages of being here are reduced shipping costs and ease of communication, and those help, but cannot offset the huge wage and overhead differentials.

 

I saw many manufacturing clients go under for these reasons in the past 12 years.  I don't see an end to it until the Renimbi is revalued by at least triple, and I don't expect to see that happen as long as we as a nation keep borrowing from them, enabling them to keep their currency dramatically undervalued.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

TIS, much as I respect and enjoy your contributions here, you seem a bit off track on this subject if you believe the various premises of this article.

These 'skilled' manufacturing jobs in the US are competing with Chinese and VietNamese workers. It's no mystery why

I spoke to several other factory managers who also confessed that they had a hard time recruiting in-demand workers for $10-an-hour jobs. It’s hard not to break out laughing,” says Mark Price, a labor economist at the Keystone Research Center, referring to manufacturers complaining about the shortage of skilled workers. “If there’s a skill shortage, there has to be rises in wages,” he says. “It’s basic economics.”

When a US employer is paying '$10 an hour', he's not paying $10 an hour; he's paying all the other costs and taxes (imposed by our government) that go along with having another employee; and if this amount is more than the worker will make in terms of the monetary value of what they will produce, then the worker won't get hired.

We can't compete with overseas labour because foreign manufacturers don't face the ridiculous overheads that they do here, and because foreigners are happy to learn the skills required for these 'skilled' jobs in sufficient numbers to push wage prices downwards.

Clearly, being a skilled machinist is no longer much of a 'skill', irrespective of its complexity or difficulty; if one wishes to earn a decent amount, then find a different trade/profession.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm not advocating any position, cited within the article or not, as the correct one as to the "why" or "whys".

As an aside, regardless of what these companies can or can not obtain similar skill level labor for overseas, no rational person will put the time and resources into obtaining specialized training as specifically described in the article, when alternate employment can be found paying 70% of that wage or even 100% of that wage with little to no such requirement of the investment of that time and those resources, so something is clearly broken in this equation.

In fact, I'd argue that massive tampering with markets by central fractional reserve banks via unprecedented, radical, bat-shit crazy monetary policy, chief among them the Fed & ECB, have been as big as- if not the biggest- factor in breaking the rationality of all markets, including the supply/demand curve for skilled labor.

The Bernank'd, broken market chronicles are going to be one for the ages.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

Yup, Triffin and the road to ZIRP are coming home to roost

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

3005441 You succinctly stated it-

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

When the whole shithouse collapses and you need a new part from me, The Machinist, to make your car run, I'm going to make you pay me thru the nose for it.

I really got to see this movie;

The Machinist trailer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0fuHY4U1UA

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

It's all lube to reintroduce the fallacy of a social contract.  The social contract has nothing to do with labor unless you are a socialist, then yes, It's all about the relationship between employer and employee.

I find the second half of the NY Times article completely offensive.  There's no gap because of automation and outsourcing.  It has nothing to do with any social contracts.  It's dollars and cents.  If you are competing with someone from India or China, you can't hope to compete on price.  

Learn it. Know it. Live it.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:42 | Link to Comment RallyRoundTheFamily
RallyRoundTheFamily's picture

+100  This is what I see happening, also who would take one of these jobs when they can stay on unemployment and net more FRN's.

 

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

When economists wake-up and admit to the following two facts;

1. that the Earth is a ball isolated by a vast vacuum
2. in light of #1, the structuring of global economies, finance and population toward long term positive growth becomes absurd

then I'll sit up and take them seriously. Until then, a child who receives pocket money once a week has a stronger grasp of sustainable living.

It is precisely this inability to come to terms with the most basic and obvious facts to human existence is why I am of two minds about Agenda 21. Agenda 21 circumvents the absurdity of academia and reinstates common sense....no matter how ugly it is, the current path of modern society is uglier.

No matter what the motive or origin of that program, you must admire its' purity of assesment and boldness of action.

<You can vote me down all you like, it doesn't change the fact that I'm right>

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I'm I understanding this? Central planners have screwed things up and so we need more central planning in the form of agenda 21 in order to fix things? If I misunderstood blame the tryptophan.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

What if "Central Planners" are not the cause, what if a run-away society is the cause. You have assigned blame to a particular entity rather than investigate the true cause....which may or may not be Central Planning.

Where we stand right now and the future we are facing is 100% unsustainable and guarenteed to fail (painfully I might add).

So. What. Do. You. Do?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

 

You said:

 

, the structuring of global economies, finance and population toward long term positive growth becomes absurd

 

That is a direct result of the fiat monetary system and legal tender laws. Such a monetary system demands that interest be paid on money created through debt which requires an ever greater number of debtors to underlie the growing pyramid. Without such laws there would be no means to promote a system based on an exponential growth in credit. This system was created by and for the central planners -- politicians and bankers -- as it allows them to take a cut of all monetary transactions.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Take this one step further and imagine a society that does not have a  "growth" mentality.  A world where birth rates are managed... consumption is rationed... etc.  How would such a world work?  I do not know - but it sure feels like something other than freedom from where I sit now.

I too find myself conflicted with the notions of where human nature leads us and how we are best to deal with it (or not).  The real scary part is that we have arrived at our technological adolesence.  Will we survive it?

The financial side of things is geared to run on the growth premise (ponzi) of course.  Is the grease under the skids.  It keeps the hamsters on the wheel.  It fits better with human nature.  Corporations take the ball and run with it.  Parasites who understand the nature people and of the system can too often find ways to exploit them (bankers are the best modern example).  Politicians get bought and sold - playing the game with competitive advantages and stacking the deck to keep the party going.  Till growth runs out (nominally) and the system begins to implode...

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

 

Take this one step further and imagine a society that does not have a  "growth" mentality.  A world where birth rates are managed... consumption is rationed... etc.

 

That's not the idea. This is purely anecdotal but it seems to me that those who reproduce the most are on the fringe of society or even life itself. Stressed individuals act on a need to reproduce as quickly as possible before they die. Those who are well off reproduce at about the rate of replacement plus a fraction. Those who were well off but have hit a rough patch delay reproduction in hope of making a recovery and regaining well off status.

Take away the ability of central planners to created exponential debt and you will reduce the consumption of pointless consumer goods and services in the developed world where most consumption takes place. A reduction in demand for the raw materials to make useless gadgets and doodads would make those raw materials more affordable to populations under stress, food and shelter being foremost considerations. When the stressed populations become accustomed to being better off they will reduce their birth rate as others have.

No managing or rationing are necessary and neither are the central planners who would mange such a scheme. Central planners are the cause of the problem not the solution.

 

The real scary part is that we have arrived at our technological adolesence.  Will we survive it?

 

Man has felt that way forever. We see the story repeated from the Tower of Babel to  Frankenstein to modern science fiction. We'll be all right as long as central planners don't force a majority of individuals onto unsustainable paths for too long. Free individuals who are not compelled to run with a herd can recover their senses and back away from dangerous paths. Humanity can only survive if we are not collectively herded over a buffalo jump.

 

As far as worst case scenarios go I haven't forgot about the global nuclear arsenal or Fukashima. But remember this:

 

The Toba catastrophe theory suggests that a bottleneck of the human population occurred c. 70,000 years ago, proposing that the human population was reduced to perhaps 15,000 individuals[3] when the Tobasupervolcano in Indonesia erupted and triggered a major environmental change. The theory is based on geological evidences of sudden climate change and on coalescence evidences of some genes (including mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosome and some nuclear genes)[4] and the relatively low level of genetic variation with humans.[3]

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_bottleneck

 

 

If mankind survived such a scenario before we can do it again. No reason to believe it would be different this time.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Thanks for the response.  I always appreciate good conversation.  Would hang around to write more - but have to run for the moment.  Any more ZH for now and wife will kill me.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Feel free. Enjoyed the chat.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:05 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

Our ancestors, who are dead now, produced almost all the "Growth" we need, if we don't destroy what they produced for us by war. Why not just focus on 'Maintenance" of the things already produced? Any further "Growth" can happen organically, not necessarily monetarily. We can focus on leisure time and a minimal but necessary amount of work with greater benefit to each individual from our labor. Don't fret about overpopulation. A balanced intelligence in all areas on our part and a planet of somewhat unknown destructive capabilities such as ours, will take care of any overpopulation problem. Stop focusing on foreign problems and using it as an excuse to not take care of your own backyard first.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 01:15 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

Why not just focus on 'Maintenance" of the things already produced?

 

That's fine for you. I have other plans.

 

 

NORMAN: What are you doing here?
KIRK: I want you to surrender.
NORMAN: That is illogical. We can move more quickly than you. We are invulnerable to attack. We are much stronger.
KIRK: No, we are stronger. I'll prove it to you. Can you harm a man that you're programmed to serve?
NORMAN: No.
MUDD: But you already have, Norman, laddy. Human beings do not survive on bread alone, you poor soulless creature, but on the nourishments of liberty, for what indeed is a man without freedom? Naught but a mechanism trapped in the cogwheels of eternity.
MCCOY: (in a monotone) You offer us only well-being.
SCOTT: (in a monotone) Food and drink and happiness mean nothing to us. We must be about our job.
MCCOY: Suffering, in torment and pain. Labouring without end.
SCOTT: Dying and crying and lamenting over our burdens.
BOTH: Only this way can we be happy.

 

Kirk, Spock, Scotty, and McCoy outwit the Androids

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbHtzqCge_8


Thu, 11/29/2012 - 00:53 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I really appreciated this string of what I consider extremely insightful dialogue and the interchange of ideas and back-and-forth debate.

This is ZH at it's best, IMO, and I've observed this in many instances where I did not participate, but merely learned in an observant, quiet manner, as I didn't feel I had enough relevant and/or credible information or experience to add value to the dialogue.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment Whiner
Whiner's picture

Fools! Have you no sense of humor. MDB is a ZH treasure. He is a farcical humorist skirting so close to the edge of true American liberal gibberish that he sounds-well-almost self convinced. But keep on junkin him lest you take all the fun out of his art.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Give Thanks:

 

American Holocaust of Native American Indians (FULL Documentary)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTrbVf6SrCc&feature=player_embedded

 

The Canary Effect 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD7x6jryoSA&feature=player_embedded

 

American Holocaust: The Destruction of America's Native Peoples 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qra6pcn4AOE&feature=player_embedded

 

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Ginsengbull
Ginsengbull's picture

Don't trust anybody who brings only cranberry sauuuuce.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

Fun home winter project.

rocket mass heaters in a nutshell:

  • heat your home with 80% to 90% less wood
  • exhaust is nearly pure steam and CO2 (a little smoke at the beginning)
  • the heat from one fire can last for days
  • you can build one in a day and half
  • folks have built them spending less than $20

the verbose details on rocket mass heaters:

Good 3 minute time lapse video of how it works and what it does.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2bsUd5zLcLw

 

http://www.richsoil.com/rocket-stove-mass-heater.jsp

http://www.dailypaul.com/263910/wow-a-rocket-stove-amazing

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

 Could I get a little info from the clown that down voted this. Do you sell firewood. heh

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Life should be fair.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Individuals should respect the lives and property of other individuals. That's what differentiates man from animal and makes society and enterprise possible.

 

 

    Many critics complain that the free market, in casting aside inefficient entrepreneurs or in other decisions, proves itself an “impersonal monster.” The free-market economy, they charge, is “the rule of the jungle,” where “survival of the fittest” is the law.[20] Libertarians who advocate a free market are therefore called “Social Darwinists” who wish to exterminate the weak for the benefit of the strong.

 

 

The free market, in fact, is precisely the diametric opposite of the “jungle” society. The jungle is characterized by the war of all against all. One man gains only at the expense of another, by seizure of the latter’s property. With all on a subsistence level, there is a true struggle for survival, with the stronger force crushing the weaker. In the free market, on the other hand, one man gains only through serving another, though he may also retire into self-sufficient production at a primitive level if he so desires. It is precisely through the peaceful co-operation of the market that all men gain through the development of the division of labor and capital investment. To apply the principle of the “survival of the fittest” to both the jungle and the market is to ignore the basic question: Fitness for what? The “fit” in the jungle are those most adept at the exercise of brute force. The “fit” on the market are those most adept in the service of society. The jungle is a brutish place where some seize from others and all live at the starvation level; the market is a peaceful and productive place where all serve themselves and others at the same time and live at infinitely higher levels of consumption. On the market, the charitable can provide aid, a luxury that cannot exist in the jungle.

 

 

http://mises.org/rothbard/mes/chap18b.asp

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

This Nation I love is under attack Crockett.  I have no choice but to defend her.  I'm a very loving person, but I don't take prisoners.  I expect to fight thru hell, nothing less.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I hear ya. Just be careful of unleashing any friendly fire. TPTB have created all sorts of deceptions to set man against neighbor. In a sane world Birchers and hippies could very well interact peacefully and productively.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I just asked my bitch and she said you have to take friendly fire from where it comes. To me that means you better test your "friends".  I'm just fucking with you, what do I know, in the end it's going to be man to man bro :)

Here's a song to make it all good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwC5xfh4nfE

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:47 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Couple shots of corn whiskey and I could dance to that.

 

Try this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcS793J3OXY

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

After the coming blood loss crockett, the global reset and it's survivors,  Do you think we'll ever hear women in the West singing this song again :) ?  I suspect we will, but that would sound foreign to me at this point.  I'm just talking turkey, like in wild turkey, but why not, it's Thanksgiving. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZr0_ic1304

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:39 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Well one thing's for sure -- we won't be hearing Hillary sing it, she's made that clear -- and we can all count our blessings.

 

If we can get out from under the man and be men again ourselves then the sexes will be able to once again respect each other. The immorality of our political and economic system does not remain isolated but metastasizes throughout society. Consider this:

 

Otto Freidrich described the period of German hyperinflation and its effects: “… People carried wages home in huge crates; by the time they could spend even their trillion-mark notes they were practically worthless… There was not a single girl in the entire middle class who could get married without her father paying a dowry… They saved and saved so that they could get married, and so it destroyed the whole idea of remaining chaste until marriage…the girls learned that virginity didn't matter anymore.”

 

http://www.lewrockwell.com/bonner/bonner390.html

 

Only in  a truly free society in which the individual (who is real and tangible) is sovereign and not the state (which is an artificial construct designed to misdirect)  can men and women live life to the fullest measure.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Here's a speech by Miko Peled whose father was a general in the Israeli army, he discusses the origins of the conflict, how Palestinians and Israelis are the same people, how they can get along

Sad to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TOaxAckFCuQ

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

What people don't seem to get is this guy is using satire (quite effectively i might add) in his comments.

Anyone that would believe that 90% tax rate Krugman is anything but a total Moron would not have the ability to think let alone write.

I have read Millions comments for quite some time and the more I read, the more I appreciate his sarcasm.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Right on Whalley World.

 MDB is genius precisely because there are so many idiots in here. Burry has more than credibility. Burry is ganster all the way! He was falsely investigated by the scum FBI -- that alone gives his billion dollar doomsday trades significantly more credibility than false prizes like the Nobel. Peace Prize anyone to go along with that dead flesh hunk of bird?

 

MDB exposes those without any sense or sense of humor.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZ2fjLD45WQ

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

I have met many people who say exactly what MDB says, and some on ZH think this way as well. Also many in the MSM think the same way. Sarcasm is not just repeating the Progressive zeitgeist.

If he wants us to know he is being sarcastic, then he needs to include self contradictions, cognitive dissonance, and extrapolations of what such statements lead to - all in his posts.

For example, if he were to advocate a $50 per hour minimum wage, then that would be a clear extrapolation of what Progessives are willing to say openly, and thus the sarcasm would be clear.

Likewise, he could claim that he deserves free health care because he has a right to the fruits of other men's labor. Thus agreeing with progresives while simultaneously exposing their cognitive dissonance.

Making statements that qualify him to sit in for Rachel Maddow on MSNBC does not qualify as sarcasm.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Yes. For example:

 

 

A Modest Proposal for Preventing the Children of Poor People From Being a Burden on Their Parents or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Publick [sic],[1] commonly referred to as A Modest Proposal, is a Juvenalian satirical essay written and published anonymously by Jonathan Swift in 1729. Swift suggests that impoverished Irish might ease their economic troubles by selling their children as food for rich gentlemen and ladies.[2] This satirical hyperbole mocks heartless attitudes towards the poor, as well as Irish policy in general.

In English writing, the phrase "a modest proposal" is now conventionally an allusion to this style of straight-faced satire.

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

but every MDB post IS Swiftian. 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Falls short in my opinion for the reasons stated by Future Jim. Swift makes me laugh. MDB does not.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

yup. THe "ivy league" was your first clue

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

You are kind.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:40 | Link to Comment PMakoi
PMakoi's picture

Hahahahahahaha.... that made my day!  Thanks, I'm even more grateful that I was doing many of the same things, for the same reasons, as Michael Burry (on a smaller scale, but did very well in the fall of '08, and since).  Krugman?!?  Krugman??!!??

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment thendi
thendi's picture

This guy is hilarious

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

Only a collasal douche could draw such a correclation between Ivy League education and Expert. Good luck with your endeavors as a Krugman lemming.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Hi MDB. What time is your family coming over today for Thanksgiving? Your cousin Robot Trader is looking forward to seeing you. 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

ha ha ha..

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:50 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Are u seeing Tim Leary?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Wannabee
Wannabee's picture

MDB has a standing appointment w Dr Phil every Thurs afternoon. Sandwiched between Geraldo and Ann Coulter.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Ann is packing way more than el Geraldo so he wants to be bottom bitch.  And Phil is just too creepy to trust around anybody.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Yes, and boy is he ashen-faced!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment EARLPEARL
EARLPEARL's picture

burry applied his education to get masters in billionaires club...burry made billions where krugman wrote books....those who can do...those who cant write books

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

MDB is making an appeal to authority. Appeals to authority touch the Soul of Animals (hierarchy and conformism); whereas, science touches the Soul of Humanity (integrity, open mindedness, tolerance, responsibility, curiosity, courage, honesty, peace, nobility, progress).

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Respect my authoritah!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Oppressed In Ca...
Oppressed In California's picture

What a troll.....

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Name one thing Krugman has been right about...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:08 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Windows break.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:47 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

He is very clever to always speak in half truths.  This is why he is such a turd.  Feels to me like he is practicing to be a central banker someday.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Slipmeanother
Slipmeanother's picture

WOW MDB is perceptive and truly looks deeply into the economic, social and political issues of the day, his insights, comments and use of knowledge laden examples of the US and world economies performance is nothing short of stunning for its clarity, accuracy and mind boggling detail. Once again hats off to MDB for highlighting  just how most posters  have a dull medicore understanding of events! (lol)

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment dbTX
dbTX's picture

Paul Krugman is a Keynesian fruit loop, irrespective of his PHd, or where it came from.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment onthesquare
onthesquare's picture

you can't handle the truth

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

Good ol' Million Dollar Bonus --- biases can be consolling.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

The school that doesn't ruin the already top picks of US High Schools gets the credit for what happens naturally. If you don't score in learning, you don't get to the dance is what makes it go. One bright source lights a cave.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Did Paul Krugman a) predict the economic meltdown and b) figure out how to make money from it?

Was Paul Krugman a surgeon before he become an economist?

Who gives a FLYING FUCK which school you, Burry or anyone else went to.  I went to a buttfuck university in a small town in Canada - my brother went to a top university in Canada.

He makes 300k a year as an engineer.

I STARTED and I operate multiple major businesses in China and Hong Kong and I send him and his family business class tickets to come to visit each year.

Once again - who gives a flying FUCK about which university you went to- or if you even went to university. 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

Hi Tommy,

Good rant. I never finished college, and have just done just fine. I'd also very much like to visit Hong Kong, and would be perfectly happy with economy class tickets. Address on request.

;>)`

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Dear Mr. Bone Us,

Please take the advice of Goldman Sachs experts as a cure for your illness.

Sincerely,

Concerned

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:37 | Link to Comment thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

nothing makes sense

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:55 | Link to Comment orez65
orez65's picture

"... when Mr Burry gets some serious credentials, I’ll pay a bit more attention to his ludicrous predictions about the economy ..."
You are a fucking moron!!
Credentials??!!
The guy made billions PREDICTING EXACTLT WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ECONOMY.
Take your head out of your ass and breathe!!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment nevket240
nevket240's picture

MDB.  have a look around you and see the total fuckin' mess your Ivy League wankers and sociopaths have gotten us into. Paul Krugman is a loss to humanity, we should put a Wanker tax on anything he passes out of his oral sphincter. It is because of the Ivy League parasites we have the world as we know it. A fuckin' mess.

regards

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:54 | Link to Comment Sparkey
Sparkey's picture

Million Dollar Bonus, you are gifted, you deliver your irony in in such consistant ernest dead pan, that alot of folks here think you really mean it, yet all your are telling them is that they are idiots for believing it!

In January I'll be awarding the first annual,`Lamont Cranston`, To the best dissembler, the best obfustacator, the best, "misdirectionist" on the board, so far the race is tied between and AnAnonymous and yourself, you both are masters of projection, congratulations on your achievments! Keep up the good work, nothing is decided yet!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 01:10 | Link to Comment Too Big 2
Too Big 2's picture

"Until then, I'll listen to the experts."

MDB---if Geithner, Bernanke, and Krugman are your "experts" then you may want to reconsider.  Bernake said the subprime problem was "contained" and has tried everything possible to save the financial system.....and is down to the last refuge of banana republics...print money to pay debts....Geithner is on record only last week as saying that the debt ceiling should be eliminated in it's entirety....and Krugman....well, he is as deserving of a Nobel price as BHO.  Wake T.F.U.!!!   

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment MacAttack2
MacAttack2's picture

Krugman is a QUACK!

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment MacAttack2
MacAttack2's picture

Krugman is a QUACK!

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Pseudointellectual Krugmanites, etc., always prefer degrees and credentials to reality.  My degrees are bigger than your degrees, so there!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:08 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Michael Burry, in terms of intellectual depth and political radicality, puts to shame people like Steve A. Cohen, Bill Ackman, David Tepper, John Paulson,  Carl Icahn.  As investors, the only people in his league are David Einhorn, Jim Chanos, and Ray Dalio.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:15 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Ray Dalio and Kyle Bass

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:17 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

And Seth Klarman minus his investment in HPQ

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Forgot Kyle Bass.  Klarman is taking hit after hit lately.   One hour ago he just got wiped out of a quarry investment.   

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Those pesky Canberra Crows. ;-)

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment dog breath
dog breath's picture

Totally agree.  Wish he spoke more in the media.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

over consumption indeed.  You've got to be a special breed of dumb ass red-neck to get in a fight waiting in a line in front of Walmart.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The downfall is rapidly approaching. We have over consumed for far far too long.

 

http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:46 | Link to Comment GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

But, but, but the Krugman expert above thinks we can just print more and everything will be okay. And he's got a PHd from MIT...

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

He's been long building a serious case of "nobody listened to me, therefore I am not wrong."  Comforting, eh?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

He sounds sincere, truthful and not-listened to on the stage.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

Not being listened to? did you catch the guy in black going for the surreptitious nose-pick at 12:22?

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

He has a very manly way of speaking.  All things considered he probaby just followed someone like Schiff.  Good for him.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 14:53 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

Wow -- well worth watching.

Riddled with classic statements from start to finish.

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:07 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

American parties are so boring. Same old same old. I was watchiong the Rockettes this morning and I was dumbfounded that that passes for entertainment.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Ajas
Ajas's picture

5:00 -- the Agent Smiths in the background seem displeased.

And toward the end... "Life is not that short.  Life is well and long enough for you to come to regret any activity or habit involving exchange of long-term risk for short term gain... Of course when you encounter the opposite-- short term risk exchanged for long-term benefit-- consider hitting that button again and again and again."

15 seconds, which if thoroughly grokked, worth more than the 4 years it took to finally hear them.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

The state of Illinois is facing a $95 billion (and rising) unfunded pension liability. Governor Pat Quinn, in a bold attempt to get Illinoisians excited about pension reform, has unveiled a new mascot: Squeezy the Pension Python

~Via Metafilter (posted by: obscurator)

 

Yes: I found his youtube video more terrifying than "The Day the World Ended"; primarily because that is set in the future, while Quinn's was determined long ago in the past.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Mary Wilbur
Mary Wilbur's picture

This is true. I live in IL and heard it on the radio. I thought it was a joke, apparently not.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Oh, look, Squeezy is giving the taxpayers a hug.  How cute!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Future Jim
Future Jim's picture

At 16:29 he says that markets are not efficient, so it turns out he is just another douchbag trying to trick us into thinking that government is the solution.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:41 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

+1 Future Jim.  You heard the same thing I did it seems.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

"Today it is absolutely not fair, the World you are being dealt. There are many ways to deal with an unfair World, one may tune out, drop out, run away, one may get angry, one may fight.  One can do all they can, or you can do ultimately what I did.  Accept the world for what it is, work hard to exploit the opportunities it presents. And try to do so in as just a manner as possible."

 

 

That quote did it for me.  But then again I'm good at reading between the lines. Yes, ultimately he believes that Govt can be "fair".

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Intelligence_In...
Intelligence_Insulter's picture

+1 I was thinking the same thing.   Just another statist thug. Free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity...NOT GOVERNMENT.  Remember that next time you see taxes taken out of your paycheck.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

This video is worth listening to if you are an idealogue.  However, I would take umbrage with the overall message; i.e. that there is hope.  Note the mention of Wall Street and federal politics.  It is one thing to wax poetic, assuming one does have a sock in the mouth, but it is another to stand on principle.  Where did this guy get 8.2 billion dollars to go short?  Summer earnings?  

The reality is this:  We are not buying this schtick and we are sick and tired of hearing false bromides.  

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment woggie
woggie's picture

the beast is on the gobble and all that matters is we're all headed for it's belly
http://youtu.be/ntmthFyaYzY

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Happy Thanksgiving ZeroHedge members….

 

Take good care of your Children, and family! Tomorrow is a new day, enjoy today’s happy moments.  :>)

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Atomizer, don't try telling it to vast-dom --- apparently, in his own twisted little universe, the celebration of Thanksgiving is synonymous with Native American genocide.  Go figure.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Fuck vast_dom ( _ underscore intended), and the " Edward/Longshanks" - "Henry the VIII th." horse he rode in on!

I'm stone cold sober, and just getting started. FX markets don't close for holidays.  "Thanks Giving", is just that!

All you tool shed "thespian" P/C assholes out there take heed...

 Good Video Tyler. Nothing anyone with Z/H [ mental fortitude] doesn't already know...

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Here's a speech by Miko Peled whose father was a general in the Israeli army, he discusses the origins of the conflict, how Palestinians and Israelis are the same people, how they can get along

Sad to watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TOaxAckFCuQ

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Skills WILL pay the bills.  For all of the bloviating and abbreviations here on ZH, who out of the 20,000 or so of us knows the art of handloading ammo and has the equipment to accomplish it?  This bullet just filled the freezer for me...

http://www.nosler.com/bullets/accubond.aspx

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 19:59 | Link to Comment evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

APRES NOUS LE DELUGE

A deluge of an unprecedented magnitude is both inevitable and imminent. The consequences of the economic and political mismanagement will have a devastating impact on the world for a very long time. And the consequences will touch most corners of the world in so many different areas; economic, financial, social, political and geopolitical.

 

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/english-news/7423-apres-nous-le-deluge

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Excellent article.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

just another hedge fund maggot gorged on the dead tissue of the usa. gross.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:04 | Link to Comment QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

The two professors (assuming) in the background are classic. They look like they are bored to tears... Why should they worry; they have tenure.  or they have pee pants

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8yXx9QWY7o

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:05 | Link to Comment QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Dupe

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Midwest Prepper
Midwest Prepper's picture

These Black Friday Shoppers are a Bit Over the Top:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmsTbcw-ilA

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 These, "made-up" mall shoppers will be {pilfered},  as usual. Consumer credit is " Burnt"!

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment edb5s
edb5s's picture

Atlas Shrugged reference at 16:40. 

 

 

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 22:01 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

I liked his commencement speech better last year. He seemed tired of giving it. Can't UCLA find someone else for next year? Dude is still interesting though.

The guy to back left, the one in black, ain't none to bright neither. He couldn't figure out that if he put his tassle on the other side of his hat like the old buck beside him that he wouldn't have to keep F'n with it. I'm headed to UCLA but I have to get another year of a foreign language.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 05:19 | Link to Comment WSP
WSP's picture

The reason they look "tired" is because they stayed up all night rehearsing their criminal talking points----all of these speeches are carefully crafted and handed down throughout our corrupt, criminal educational system and their only worry is that they will not pass their puppet master's criminal agenda down correctly.

Thu, 11/22/2012 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tyler, you RE WORKING OUR SERVERS. lET'S BE PATRIOTIC??

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 00:18 | Link to Comment brettd
brettd's picture

Knowlegde, information and creativity are the coins of the realm.

See: Apple; Google; HCA.

"Labor" and manufacturing are idols of the bygone age of GM, F, GE & Westinghouse....

Just "showing up" won't get it done anymore.

We are now an invention & invesment economy.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 06:42 | Link to Comment WSP
WSP's picture

No, we are now a centrally planned, fasicst criminal police state run by a few evil corporations that use their power and knowledge over us to increase their power and reduce us to slaves.

Knowledge, information, and creativity are the "coins of the realm" to concentrate power and control, implement a police state, and pillage the wealth of a formerly great nation.

We are now a criminal police state which is the most corrupt in the history of mankind but each day becomes more corrupt and thus raises the bar on just how evil and criminal the ruling elite can be.

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Amagnonx
Amagnonx's picture

Labor includes skilled labor as well as unskilled - more current knowledge is neccessary these days if you want to earn more than $2 a day  - because thats what it costs for unskilled labor outsourced to India for example.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 05:14 | Link to Comment WSP
WSP's picture

This video is an oldie but goody-----I didn't watch because I know it is a repost from a previous day when we had more freedom than we did yesterday----which means this could have been posted yesterday and each and every day.

THE PROBLEM with this analysis?

Amerika (aka UFSA United Fascist States of Amerika) is the most corrupt country in the history of mankind. Sure, every civilization has been corrupted by man as it is inherent in his nature, HOWEVER, never in history has a society had so many sophisticated tools of depravity available that is now. The reason the elite are so arrogant is they truly can control the masses, or so they think, and not only that, they are able to print the currency out of thin air and make the population grateful for their slavery.

While I agree that EVENTUALLy this will end bad once the elite eat the flesh off every societies bones and begin self-immolating on each other, this will likely be many years out (possibly centuries).

The bottom line is those of us that frequent truth telling sites like ZH know the inevitability of how the crime syndicate of Amerika ends, but like most crimes committed by the Amerika's elite, this will go on MUCH longer than you can stay solvent or sane.

 FUK Amerika and it's New York/DC/California run, centrally planned fascist criminal state that makes communism, socialism, and even hitler look like a schoolyard bully.  Amerika is an evil, criminal state whose banana republik corruption is so widespread that future generations will do the opposite of everything good Amerika has done (e.g. capitalism).  Of course, the police state, socialist/marxist/fascist hybrid policy will all be written about as positive but anything truly positive (e.g. old moral values, former capitalism, personal responsibility, etc) will all get the blame. 

 

Afterall, the tea party is racist and white males are bad people---I know because the MSM told me and they always tell me what is in my best interest and Amerika's best interest---you can trust the MSM because they only have our best interests in mind and THEY KNOW BETTER.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:15 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

There is no Indo European males on 'american' MSM? Quite a discovery...

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Ol' Painless
Ol&#039; Painless's picture

 

Your comments remind me of a conversation I had describing this work by Gabriel Kolko, "The Triumph of Conservatism"

 In fact, Kolko's thesis—that big government and big business consistently colluded to regulate small American artisans and farmers out of existence—has much in common with libertarian and traditionalist critiques of the corporatist state.

I've yet to read the book, however, I suspect it identifies exactly what you, nmewm, have recognized.

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