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Black Friday Fails To Bring A Budget Deal For Europe

Tyler Durden's picture




 

First it was Greece, which Europe couldn't "resolve" on Monday night despite Juncker's vocal promises to the contrary, and was embarrassed into postponing until next Monday when everything will surely be fixed. Now, the time has come to delay the "resolution" of the EU budget, which was supposed to be implement last night, then a decision was delayed until today, and now every European government leader is saying a new meeting will likely be needed to resolve the budget impasse.

As BBG summarizes, "Divisions between rich and poor countries flared over the European Union’s next seven-year budget, leading German Chancellor Angela Merkel to rule out an accord until the new year. France defended farm subsidies, Britain clung to a rebate and Denmark demanded its own refund, while countries in eastern and southern Europe said reduced financing for public-works projects would condemn their economies to lag behind the wealthier north. “Positions remain too far apart,” Merkel told reporters early today after the first session of a summit in Brussels. “Probably there will be no result at the end of this summit. There may be some progress but it is probable that we will need to meet again at a second stage."  In other words the same old absolute and total chaos from the European Disunion we have all grown to love, in which the only solution each and every time is to delay reaching a solution, at least until after Merkel is reelected and in the meantime kicking the ever greater ball inventory in Draghi's court, where he too will promise to make everything better as long as he actually dosn't have to do anything.

On the surface this kind of political clowning should be bad for risk: however, in Europe BIS' FX trading team always operates deep below the surface, and while all the news about fixing being interrupted are ignored, what did impact the EURUSD, and thus broad risk, overnight was the reflexive German IFO Confidence release, which printed at 101.4, above expectations of 99.5, and higher than the October print of 100.0 which also happened to be the February 2012 low. Nevermind the ongoing deterioration in German PMIs, of which the service component dropped to 2009 low levels, and that an IFO economist warned German Q4 GDP may (read "will") come in negative for the first time in years - the jittery headline scanning algos took the news and sent EURUSD higher by 40 pips, making German exports that much more uncompetitive.

In other news, the Greek deal was percolating, with various permutations being contemplated, and now even Goldman's Themistoklis Fiotakis on hope the debt buyback will be greenlighted over objections by the broader Greek society, and all those other European countries who will soon realize their EFSF funding is being used not to bailout Greece, for whom it is not a question of debt stock, but lack of GDP flow, but to generate massive hedge fund profits.

Finally, with the US trading session today at half mast, expect another record low volume half-trading day, which means a risk levitation is practically guaranteed. Headlines scanned for by the few trading algos will be anything promising a "massive", "unprecedented", "record" Thanksgiving retail season, just like last year, when a month later everything was inverted and it was subsequently learned that the bulk of the purchases had been returned to the sellers.

Some more macro previews from SocGen:

The market should be very quiet today, as many US investors are off on Thanksgiving break.

 

All eyes will thus be on the eurozone with the publication of French and German business confidences indices. The French index hit its August 2009 low last month ahead of the publication of the 2013 budget. Thus, a correction is expected, but the index will remain at low levels. German IFO business confidence could continue to deteriorate, although it hit its February 2012 low in October.

 

We note that lower-than-expected indicators could revive expectations of rate cuts by the ECB on 6 December. The SG scenario does not factor in an interest rate cut as they are already very low (repo rate at 0.75% and deposit rate at 0.0%): the potential disadvantages (money market fund outflows) would outweigh the advantages (could a 25bp cut have a major impact on activity?). We will also be paying close attention to President Draghi's speech today.

 

Overall, the EUR/USD could rapidly hit a ceiling and 2Y Bund yields fall back into negative territory.

And a complete review of what little happened overnight from Jim Reid:

Black Friday actually began on Thursday for many US consumers who cut short their Thanksgiving dinners to be amongst the first through the doors of retailers that opened earlier than usual this year. A number of chain retailers including Walmart and Toys R US were said to have opened at 8pm yesterday in an effort to kick-start sales ahead of the all-important holiday shopping season. Although for those who wish to let the fingers do the walking and shop from the comfort of your homes Cyber Monday also presents an attractive alternative. So watch out for commentary from retailers and industry groups next week for this weekend’s sales performance which should shed some light on consumer sentiment amid the ongoing ‘fiscal cliff’ uncertainty.

With the US markets closed for Thanksgiving, yesterday was a relatively quiet day for markets. In Europe, the Stoxx600 closed at the day’s highs (+0.59%) led by solid gains in the peripheries. Main bourses in Greece, Italy and Spain finished +1.99%, +1.03% and +0.90% higher on the day, respectively. The European market seemingly breathed a collectively sigh of relief that the manufacturing sector PMIs, although still mired in contractionary territory, have showed some signs of improvement. Indeed the flash Eurozone manufacturing PMI for November came at 46.2 (vs 45.6 expected and 45.4 previous) helped by improvements in France (44.7 vs 43.7 prev) and Germany (46.8 vs 46.0 prev). The services PMIs were softer though which took some shine away. The eurozone services PMI fell 0.3pts on the month to 45.7. This was also accompanied by a 0.5pt and 0.4pt drop in France’s and Germany’s services series, respectively.

Assuming no change in the November and December final readings, our European economists noted that the PMIs would point to a euro area GDP contraction of 0.5% qoq in Q4 which is broadly in line with their forecasts (-0.4% qoq). Staying on PMIs for a bit and turning back to  yesterday’s flash HSBC manufacturing PMI in China. DB’s Jun Ma thinks that yesterday’s 50.4 print correlates with an official PMI reading (to be reported on Dec 1st) of around 51 which would be a 0.8pt improvement on the October reading. Also in yesterday’s flash PMI report, the sub-indices of new export orders and output rose by 5.7pts and 3.0pts to 52.4 and 51.3, respectively. Jun believes that the rise in output was driven by raw material inventory restocking which is consistent with the recent rally in commodity prices.

The positive risk tone is extending into the overnight session with Asian bourses mostly higher across the region. Gains are led by the Hang Seng (+0.28%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.73) although volumes and news flow are predictably thin given Japan’s Labor Thanksgiving holidays. Sentiment in Korea was initially weighed by reports that North Korea is preparing to test a long-range ballistic missile. Away from geopolitical headlines, Airline Cathay Pacific overnight described the cargo business as a “huge challenge” and added that cargo revenues are down 13% YTD.

In the FX space, USDJPY is trading 0.3% lower this morning (82.2) and is on track for its biggest downward move in two weeks. This follows a WSJ article which cites Japan’s opposition leader Shinzo Abe as saying that he would be reluctant to intervene in the Yen. In a departure from his strong dovish rhetoric of recent weeks, Abe said that past intervention hasn’t been effective, and monetary policy alone isn’t enough to stop deflation.

Turing back to Europe, EU President Van Rompuy called an end to the first day of the EU Summit at around 11pm London time last night to allow heads of state some time to study a revised budget proposal that provides for EUR1 Trillion of spending between 2014-2020. The revised proposal allows for EUR80bn in spending cuts which are designed to appease the more hawkish leaders. EU leaders will study the proposals overnight and reconvene at midday today for negotiations. Merkel said that she doubts a budget deal will be reached at this week’s summit and most likely a second summit will be needed early next year.

Moving on to today, there will be very little as far as data flow is concerned. Germany’s IFO survey and Italian retail sales are the two main reports out today. We may get further headlines out of the EU Summit but we should see a relatively quiet end to the week with only a half-day market in the US.

 

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Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:10 | 3005922 sbenard
sbenard's picture

But stocks are higher! Go figure!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:22 | 3005924 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Fiat budget? The oxymoronic pike upon which the world writhes.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:11 | 3005923 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's black Friday......got one hell of a good bond deal for you Amigos.

 

How much can we put you down for?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:43 | 3006608 mkhs
mkhs's picture

If it doesn't come with a stampede, no thanks.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:29 | 3005930 PMakoi
PMakoi's picture

 “Positions remain too far apart,” Merkel told reporters...

"Give us yo money!"

"No!"  "If we give y'all our money, then our money will become worthless."

"Give us yo money, while we can still spend it!"

"Y'all don't understand.  There really ain't no money, there's just control."

"Give us yo money, now!"

"Okay, alright... but you have to promise to pay it back."

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:50 | 3005939 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Germans are as guilty and greedy and profit-taking as anybody in all this, as ZeroHedge has covered in various pieces on Germany's mercantilism

Germany itself sabotaged the value of currency when it let German banks over-lever and create credit at 60-to-1 leverage and give loans that could never be repaid ... in order to sell German goods ... and this whole 'bailout' farce is largely to preserve the German banks, insurers and pension funds loaded up on dodgy debt created by Germans

This is the German dirty secret ... Germany's own Ponzi, hiding the bitter fact Germans are much less wealthier than they think, their pensions etc. perhaps as much as half worthless

And as the article above and many other ZH pieces have pointed out, Germany profits from teaming with other countries 'in trouble' to lower the euro's value and pump up German exports

By some accounts, Germany has been profiting about € 150 billion per year by being in the euro, and having the problems of other countries lower the exchange rate and Germany's interest on borrowing.

About € 100 billion more in exports and then perhaps another €50 billion in lower interest on Germany's debt

So maybe more than € 1 trillion since the euro currency notes appeared - some further details below

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/07/17/official-for-every-e-the-eu-crisi...

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:13 | 3006278 PMakoi
PMakoi's picture

Ach so!  Every Greek family should purchase or lease a new BMW... sehr gut!

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:38 | 3005933 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Why should the EU have a budget at all?? The EU should only be a treaty for better commerce... not another government above all the governments of Europe... more taxpayers money wasted...

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:17 | 3006117 reload
reload's picture

Exactly: why should the elected prime ministers of sovereign nations have to `negotiate` with the EU commission at all? the EU commission is unelected.....none of the constituent citizens of europe have ANY say in who is a commissioner. Could it be less democratic? I doubt it.

Anyway, they suresly have enough `bannana straightening tzars` and the like by now.

And how dare they ask for more money when the internal fund transfer mechanism is so corrupted, fraudulent and innefficient that publishing audited accounts has been impossible for 17 years? utter joke - in very poor taste.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:30 | 3006762 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

they don't "negotiate" with them, they appoint and instruct them

a secretary of state is also appointed and confirmed - careful with that "unelected" and "undemocratic", it's confederative

and the "banana straighteners" have at least kept most of the "new food" GMO trash out of the EU, just for a stupid example

and please don't behave as if the EU budget is serious money, compared to what is happening on the financial front

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:47 | 3005937 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Hell, the US hasn't had a "budget" in years...this is obviously bullish when you look at the "market" every day.

 

Algos being spoon fed directly from the printers don't care about "budgets". 

With that, I'm looking for a different type of "Black Friday" today.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:58 | 3005941 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Notice how the "market" is always on a vacation? One Holiday and the exchanges take a WEEK  off.. makes you wonder doesn't it. It's either entering a Holiday period. On Holiday or Coming out of one.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:19 | 3005942 falak pema
falak pema's picture

"I want my money back" vs "I want the PAC" vs "I want to pay the Eurocrats more"...

the three faces of Euro-Eve.

To whom God-Mutti Merkel says : I'll call you don't call me as you are all naughty girls.

What a tribe!

I'd love to tell Eve she ain't Venus de Milo, the ONE ARMED LADY, from Athens burning!

But I have a feeling Eve don't speak Greek no more! 

Witness the gruesome discussions in Euro group about Venus's lost arm :

In an effort to steer Greece towards debt sustainability, the European Central Bank is considering forgoing $9 billion in expected profits on Greek debt, according to Reuters. They are also considering cutting interest rate, extending the due date on loans, and a debt buyback by the government.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-november-23-2012-11#ixzz2D3UIg7I5

Oh the humanity! Maybe we will let you keep the other arm, sweetie! 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 08:58 | 3005943 MoreNails
MoreNails's picture

Europe's only hope is that one day these guys will all starve to death, failing to agree on a restaurant to dine at.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 09:00 | 3005946 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Give us Ze money NOW said... the angry Greek.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 10:00 | 3006055 youngman
youngman's picture

The Kensians know budgets are a bad thing for them....they do not like budgets..it cuts into their printing to eternity thesis...

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:50 | 3006437 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"...and Denmark demanded its own refund"

But its only fair..


net contribution per. citizen:

Danmark 961
Holland 857
Sverige 812
Tyskland 745
Frankrig 566
Italien 536
Østrig 499
UK 440 (cheap bastards)

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:34 | 3006780 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Danemark is also one of the EU members that takes the EU politics nearer to it's citizens, for example by having the ministers debating/declaring beforehand in both Parliament and national TV what they are going to vote in Council

funny, eh, the British have the cheapest contribution and are the loudest in this, so loud that they might just raise the price for the sake of protest

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