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Markets Gone Wild
It all makes so much sense... risk markets everywhere have gone vertical. As we noted earlier, "with the US trading session today at half mast, expect another record low volume half-trading day, which means a risk levitation is practically guaranteed." QED. And yet something appears broken - just look at these cross-asset class charts... oh and of course EURUSD surges to 1.2952 as the Eurogroup Summit has been confirmed as 'called off'. Is repatriation risk-off flow driving the correlated ignorance of algo-based risk-on? 300 pips in 10 days. S&P 500 back above 1400. Gold pushing $1750. This move seems to be entirely driven by technical stop-runs everywhere as EURUSD blows through its 50DMA, S&P 500 Futures cross above the 100DMA, and Gold blows through the 50DMA. Efficient markets forever...
EURUSD stupidity - or all reptariation all the time...
Commodities mad...
and S&P 500 futures have auctioned up to post-election open and Draghi levels...
The move appears extremely synthetic - i.e. top-down - with big individual names largely unmoved by today's action.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Black Friday sale on USDs.
Get em while they're worth something. Limited edition, may not be worth anything in 2013.
Unlimited Edition, courtesy of your friendly Federal Reserve board
Federal Reserve Monopoly Board Game http://fiatmonopoly.blogspot.com/
Don't buy gold its a relic and ya can't eat it....now move along and get back to your gameboy
Anecdotal evidence I know, but I have been seeing some scarcity of Gold Eagles in SE USA coin shops.
I dunno. Charlie may have a point.
Just think: if we'd skipped stacking altogether and just bought BRK puts, we'd be doing slightly better. So the dude's not completely wrong -- just talking his book. Well, hell. Who doesn't?
Personally, I think it was part of a fiendishly clever ruse to keep the price of gold down so Charlie himself could back up the truck.
All markets are one big Tom Lee - run WalMart today.
"Black Friday sale on USDs."
Dafuq? You think this is a sale? Overpriced confetti.
Devaluing perpetually at a mall near you.
2013 Black Friday - "Merchants now giving discounts only with payment in Gold and Silver"....
you see what happens Larry when you devalue the dollar
The dollar is breaking pretty big technical support.
How fucking surprising. Right on a huge shopping day.
1,400 SPX.
I would have never thunk it. Great post re-re-re-re-re-re expressing the obvious.
I love the smell of spiking precious metals with my morning coffee
And where are the US Doelarr bulls who were yapping it up this week?
How's that Euro short coming along?
Maybe the Brazilians are buying gold again....lol....
JCP gaining 50% today would make just as much sense. So why not. Maybe RIM can gain 6400%.
Does it really matter anymore?
Looks like the "shorts" are covering their bare asses with this shorten secession today.
Short squeeze to 1400 completed as predicted. I now expect the markets to be clumped lower when people return to work next week.
The giant ocean of "money" created out of thin air has to go somewhere. This is why fundamentals do not matter. Until something truly breaks...oil, war, default, euroexit etc...why act so surprised?
Correct. When the supply lines for essential commodities breaks, then and only then does any of this get real.
Same as it ever was.
You're coming along nicely PUD, but some fundamentals do matter.
Gold (real money) is set to rise for the 13th straight year. Dow/Gold is 7.5, down from 44 in 1999.
Yep. If the scarcity of gold I have seen at the retail level continues, I would much more prefer buying physical gold than the Dow.
Speaking of scarcity, how about opening up the coffers at the COMEX and taking a look at their silver inventory. *crickets*
Risk on is shopping on Black Friday.
In all instances where a country lost faith in it's currency, I do believe that the "markets" shot to the moon just before hyperinflation and chaos set in. Prosecute the fucking fraud at all levels of society. It will happen on way or another.
Only in Kangaroo courts I'm afraid.
We are now even more morally bankrupt than financially,if thats possible.
+1
The financial bankruptcy is a result of society's moral bankruptcy.
"The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Frederic Bastiat
+ 1 Yes, yes, yes. Our moral bankruptcy is the elephant in the roomo no one wants to talk about.
what?
lol; mindset....what haven't I written here on this subject!
Not only possible, but predictable. The two go hand-in-hand.
Criminals, wearing white collars and cashing their government checks, are employed at all levels of the pyramid scheme. If we can't get to the ones at the top, maybe we can get to the ones at the middle or bottom. How about we start by placeing all the cops under citizens arrest?
Or, at the very least, stop selling them food, gas, etc. Stop talking to them. Ignore them. Give them the silent treatment. Don't encourage them. They are the Redcoats
The bernank has plugged in his very special 'reflux apex perculation machine', and decided now is the time for shenanigans.
The filthy little bastard what he is. On a brighter note, it is Friday, you now have two lovely days off work before starting the whole game again Monday. Have a good weekend ZHers. Whoever you are
;-)
so much for euro scepticism fed on budget gridlock!
The market seems to love it. The more the EU is in grid lock the more free is Count Draghi, the real king; not those Euro eunuchs sitting in Brussels.
And the markets love Draghi to be free of all constraints!
EurUSd now : 1.2968.
I challenge ZH to mention the exact level we should start re-shorting ES. Please, step up to the challenge. At this point, I see a re-test of the 50DMA around 1425 on Black Monday.
1,410 before the drop to 1,280. Fiscal cliff not going away until Dec 22 where last minute compromise will be reached.
1432
1404.1
My definition of the stock market:
A PERENNIAL EFFORT TO LURE SUCKERS.
This is panic, pure and clean panic. It's forced buying on the hope that some idiot is left to buy the shit that primary dealers own.
DO NOT GET FOOLED.
so game theory is to get short before the fiscal cliff frame work bullshit fails.. on the assumption that the legal insiders (congress) through MSM and the primary dealer pumpage are building short positions into this manipulated market, and again, never letting a crisis go to waste ?
I think we can assume that what ever direction the market heads into the deadline should be faded with everything being a staged manipulated show these days. If we drift lower into the deadline get long, a drift higher get short.
Great setup for monday's short.
Stopped out by that magical pop on the EURUSD the other night, stopped out on the magical pop on the US open. OK, maybe I'ma mug for continuing to short this market, but when it goes, it's going to really blow.
How can NOTHING from the Eurozone the other night, BAD job figures on Wednesday, bad US Mich figures the other day result in a 200 points Dow, 22 point S&P RISE? Even Bernanke wasn't pushing a good side the other day.
DavidC
David, you dont understand.
We know its a Ponzi scheme, they know its a Ponzi scheme but for them its life or death.
The powers that be will do everything to keep it alive.
Save yourself some grief.
If you buy farmland, you'll stop caring about this stuff and have confidence in returns on your investment.
This is all about Greece. Greece is what has the potential to explode swaps and take the whole system down. Nothing else does in the near term.
The market is convinced that with nothing having changed, at all, the EU Fin Mins will reach agreement on Greece on Monday, where they could not last Monday or the Monday before that.
If they don't, and it's hard to see how they can, this will all go into freefall.
And then Spain...and then France...and then Italy...and then UK...and then....
DavidC
Im all in
Long Cockroaches and ammo and AG
Gold up 1%,silver up 2% let see if the cap holds.
p.s I am all in too.
not quite all in, waiting for 18++
CNBC talking heads are slinging jizz at the cameras.
People, people, people.
Stop chasing the news. It's got nothing with the news.
We are beyond the point of market decline. This stock market cannot possibly decline. It can only crater, otherwise the owners (primay dealers) of super uber hyper priced stocks have no other option but keep buying until the weakest link (s) collapse.
Go home and eat turkey. One second or minute or day or month, one time, it will crater.
the trouble is that ZH is a financial site, totally dependent on analysing market dynamics.
If the market is frigid and pschyo-rigid like a queen wearing a chastity belt, the whole function of market analyst becomes meaningless. We are in feudal times and the queen is now in quarantine as the King is out Crusading, for the holy grail of fiat kingdom of heaven.
The day trader is CLUELESS as he is up against BOTS who act according to Oligarchy rationale totally disassociated with normal market rationale. The market is no longer the real tangible economy, its Alice in WOnderland.
So ZH loses its focus in the sheer frustration of watching a game that has no rationale except that its irrational and guided by invisible hands like puppets on the string.
No wonder the TDs lost their cool, their pool games are taken over by THE HUSTLER. WS is now totally town of the Hustler.
Get used to it, and remember market analysis is dead in Deadwood.
Until Wild Bill Hickock comes to town!
What a nice place it used to be when Blondie had Dagmar as only knucklebrain in the house!
I apologize. This happens everytime I go short. Sorry. Next time I really will do the opposite of what makes sense.
Relax, don't lose your position.
Cash flow smoothing/assurance - US Government style
This market is a joke. And not a funny one either.
Low volume..very low volume..and the HFT´s know it..so they can play very hard today....no fundimentals today..just playing around with the Turkey leftovers..
Yes, and when it blows (and it will) the HFTs will either just waterfall it making 6th May 2010 look like a blip or they will just STOP.
DavidC
I don't know about you, but I find it very difficult indeed to sit on the sidelines while catastrophic levels of debt, bad news and simply ginormous risk exists around the world, and have to watch smiling, drooling cocksuckers dry-hump the market to some of the highest levels in history. Truly a bizarro world. It's hard not to feel like you're "missing out" as prices ramp higher and higher. Then again, I don't trade stocks anyway so I question how I can even feel like I'm "missing out"...?! I guess that tells more about me than the markets.
I'm sure Bernake really gives a fuck.
Guess what? You can stop him, he knows it, and he and his 'crew' are going to do whatever the fuck they want to do.
Get used to it.
The reason why they keep humping this market to record levels is to get you to capitulate and put your money in. The longer the retail investor holds out, the higer the market will go.
Cramer is just a ghetto market used car salesman. His job is to make it look like you are missing out on getting rich by not being in the market.
Investing in hyped up momo stocks is the same as a $20 Black Friday phone. It is meant to generate a buying stampede so all the handlers can transfer a useless piece of garbage to you, in return for your hard earned cash.
The wealthy can't be left holding the bag. That is the little person's job. That is really what happened with Netflix. Cramer was successful at $250 making people believe the stock was going to $500. Enough morons bought the stock and the insiders unloaded, crashing the price.
People are saying not to support the banks. Well you shouldn't support the stock market either. When you buy shares, the only thing you are doing is lining the pockets of the scum of the earth.
Why? Because someone convinced you that the path to wealth is holding a piece of paper tied to the ability of a company to fudge is books?
Step right up, folks, and see something you've never seen before...
"Cramer is just a ghetto market used car salesman."
Heh heh. That one made me laugh! :)
Of course, what you say makes perfect sense. It sure does feel odd tho' sometimes when the world is dancing with irrational exhuberence, and you aren't singing the same song. Strange days indeed! :)
I vested out of the stockmarket in 2007.
A lot of research ,and a little luck.
Everytime I feel tempted to slide back in,I just remember the look of
the CNBC sell siders, as the market just went down ,and down for months.
You really want to be in a market with no bids ?
There are no sidelines, you bet on the deflation.
http://goo.gl/SNeBv
Efficient what? Who cares? Remember that saying from back in the day? "The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent." Yeah, don't fight it, enjoy the ride down the fiat express; all aboard that's going aboard, biotches!
Agree, so I am in real assets. Gold, silver and quality miners. At least I feel I am not participating in the sham of stocks rising for no real economic reason and just being manipulated by algos.
SPX 1,400 achieved.
Now, time to drift sidewise and then bang the fuck out of the close.
Golly.
Yep, same day, different toilet
spx @ 1402 = ME OUT !!
when spx @ 1354 (go back and check my posts to verify) I said go long and wait for 1340 to buy more.....then it dropped to 1343!! now @ 1403 (intraday high = 1404 so far). Anyways i just unloaded my DEAD CAT BOUNCE LONG POSIITONS. From 1354 avg price to 1402 avg price = nice gain !!!
same thing with euro, i 1) unloaded my eur shorts of 1.315 @ 1.272... 2) went long @ 1.272...dropped to 1.268..so what ??? 3) i now unloaded my eur LONGS @ 1.2965 and have reloaded the SHORTS.. next week a greek budget deal or so? either a) sell on the good news or b) baaaaad news coming = sell now either way !!
the best thing??? = spent about 10-20 minutes/DAY MAXIMUM monitoring casino and the news!!! that's it !!!
happy thanksgiving!!
and just like the casino, you guessed right on the roulette wheel a few times in a row and are up big time. Only until the pattern breaks and you lose it all.
In the early part of the summer the alligator tooth pattern of the market was repeating at perfect intervals. Just when the tip of the tooth came up to set up shorts for the next leg down, Bernanke issued a no news event and the market shot higher. If you went short like you were supposed to, you would have lost everything. If you traded on the technicals like you were supposed to, it ended up burning you. That is also part of the Wall Street con. The technical trade only works until it doesn't.
Being short at 1400 or long at 1350 is the same as betting black or red. The odds are the same and don't pretend it is anything other than a gamble. There is no technical reason or economic justification for the market to be at any price today. The only certainty is the house always wins.
short history
august 2012 shorted MASSIVELY spx @ 1390, then pumped to 1474 high on day AFTER QE3. I shorted @ 1390, 1430, 1474 I even called the TOP @ 1474 here at ZH, u can check posts
so my avg spx short positions = 1450, my avg euro shor positions = 1.315
covered spx in phases @ 1384, 1360...then went long @ 1360, 1354....my 1340 order DIDN'T get filled bc low was 1343..and i was away from computer-don't monitor casino all day..just 10-20 minutes/day max...
anyways, if you don't have a good predictive stomach...YOU HEDGE and you SCALE IN..you don't go in, in one shot...its easy to scale in, which is what i was doing shorts spx from 1390 to 1474..also remember what goes up must come down, also manipulation is TEMPORARY.
cheers-roger out
yess ..dont you just love the sound of shorts squeezed again and again?
about 10 days ago...Durden wrote: Chief Exemption Officer will be busy....gues what...that was in the bottom...since then up up up yes...wrong call(again).Shorts soon to be BBQD into the Christmas.Thank you.
Its one of those days thats too obvious that something is off. Somebody left the rMp bot on.
Pssst: They don't give a fuck.
I don't know, but ... next week is month-end with year end bonus on the line.
Why wouldn't I be long euro after they created a "life after people" Continent courtesy of two World Wars? I mean obviously no one can be complaining about inflation over there yes, yes? They pooh-poohed all the actions taken by Paulson & Co after Alan Grennspan collapsed the totality of Wall Street right? So surely "it's safe to have a run rate in BMW's" yes yes?
We'll probably see a Black Monday sale.....off now
I have my VIX Calls ready to go for Monday. :)
This is exaxtly why I don't trade the ponzi euro.
Silver about to crack 34.00 dollars - Time to go long BLYTHE!!!
But it still only costs $5 to dig from the ground.
And they dig less of it each year. And there is only 1/10 of the investible silver that there was the last time it hit $300/oz (Infl Adj).in 1980 when there was 1/10 the paper money flying around. A person would have to be a complete freakin idiot to buy any of that shit. Hell, did you know that the hot market these days are Unicorn Turds.
There's a basic difference between gold's levitation and the rally that stocks are undergoing.
Gold is in a primary bull market, in spite of the current correction. So gold's advance is just a rally within a primary bull market. Not suspect.
Stocks are in a primary bear market that was signaled on Nov 16. Thus, stocks advance is a rally within a primary bear market and to add insult to injury with extremely low volume. Highly suspect.
Here you have the relevant charts and commentary thereto:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-update-for-nov-23-...