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Markets Gone Wild

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It all makes so much sense... risk markets everywhere have gone vertical. As we noted earlier, "with the US trading session today at half mast, expect another  record low volume half-trading day, which means a risk levitation is practically guaranteed." QED. And yet something appears broken - just look at these cross-asset class charts... oh and of course EURUSD surges to 1.2952 as the Eurogroup Summit has been confirmed as 'called off'. Is repatriation risk-off flow driving the correlated ignorance of algo-based risk-on? 300 pips in 10 days. S&P 500 back above 1400. Gold pushing $1750. This move seems to be entirely driven by technical stop-runs everywhere as EURUSD blows through its 50DMA, S&P 500 Futures cross above the 100DMA, and Gold blows through the 50DMA. Efficient markets forever...

EURUSD stupidity - or all reptariation all the time...

 

Commodities mad...

 

and S&P 500 futures have auctioned up to post-election open and Draghi levels...

 

The move appears extremely synthetic - i.e. top-down - with big individual names largely unmoved by today's action.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:28 | 3006325 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

Black Friday sale on USDs.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:31 | 3006337 gjp
gjp's picture

Get em while they're worth something.  Limited edition, may not be worth anything in 2013.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:33 | 3006349 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Unlimited Edition, courtesy of your friendly Federal Reserve board

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:49 | 3006416 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Federal Reserve Monopoly Board Game http://fiatmonopoly.blogspot.com/ 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:45 | 3006414 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Don't buy gold its a relic and ya can't eat it....now move along and get back to your gameboy

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:57 | 3006466 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Anecdotal evidence I know, but I have been seeing some scarcity of Gold Eagles in SE USA coin shops.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:15 | 3006532 SaveTheBales
SaveTheBales's picture

I dunno.  Charlie may have a point.

Just think: if we'd skipped stacking altogether and just bought BRK puts, we'd be doing slightly better.  So the dude's not completely wrong -- just talking his book.  Well, hell.  Who doesn't?

Personally, I think it was part of a fiendishly clever ruse to keep the price of gold down so Charlie himself could back up the truck.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:45 | 3006353 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

All markets are one big Tom Lee - run WalMart today.  

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:15 | 3006530 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

"Black Friday sale on USDs."

Dafuq? You think this is a sale?  Overpriced confetti.

Sat, 11/24/2012 - 00:44 | 3008081 They Tried to S...
They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

Devaluing perpetually at a mall near you.

2013 Black Friday - "Merchants now giving discounts only with payment in Gold and Silver"....

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:30 | 3006332 Flounder
Flounder's picture

you see what happens Larry when you devalue the dollar

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:30 | 3006335 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

The dollar is breaking pretty big technical support.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:31 | 3006343 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

How fucking surprising.  Right on a huge shopping day.

1,400 SPX. 

I would have never thunk it.  Great post re-re-re-re-re-re expressing the obvious.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:31 | 3006345 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

I love the smell of spiking precious metals with my morning coffee

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:47 | 3006417 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

And where are the US Doelarr bulls who were yapping it up this week?

How's that Euro short coming along?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:32 | 3006346 youngman
youngman's picture

Maybe the Brazilians are buying gold again....lol....

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:33 | 3006352 adr
adr's picture

JCP gaining 50% today would make just as much sense. So why not. Maybe RIM can gain 6400%.

Does it really matter anymore?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:33 | 3006354 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Looks like the "shorts" are covering their bare asses with this shorten secession today.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:33 | 3006355 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Short squeeze to 1400 completed as predicted. I now expect the markets to be clumped lower when people return to work next week.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:33 | 3006356 PUD
PUD's picture

The giant ocean of "money" created out of thin air has to go somewhere. This is why fundamentals do not matter. Until something truly breaks...oil, war, default, euroexit etc...why act so surprised?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:36 | 3006369 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  When the supply lines for essential commodities breaks, then and only then does any of this get real.

Same as it ever was.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:54 | 3006451 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

You're coming along nicely PUD, but some fundamentals do matter.

Gold (real money) is set to rise for the 13th straight year. Dow/Gold is 7.5, down from 44 in 1999.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:00 | 3006479 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yep.  If the scarcity of gold I have seen at the retail level continues, I would much more prefer buying physical gold than the Dow.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:55 | 3006849 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Speaking of scarcity, how about opening up the coffers at the COMEX and taking a look at their silver inventory. *crickets*

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:33 | 3006358 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Risk on is shopping on Black Friday.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:34 | 3006360 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In all instances where a country lost faith in it's currency, I do believe that the "markets" shot to the moon just before hyperinflation and chaos set in.  Prosecute the fucking fraud at all levels of society.  It will happen on way or another.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:36 | 3006373 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Only in Kangaroo courts I'm afraid.

We are now even more morally bankrupt than financially,if thats possible.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:45 | 3006413 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

+1

The financial bankruptcy is a result of society's moral bankruptcy.

"The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else." - Frederic Bastiat

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:03 | 3006492 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1  Yes, yes, yes.  Our moral bankruptcy is the elephant in the roomo no one wants to talk about.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 14:06 | 3006887 falak pema
falak pema's picture

what?

lol; mindset....what haven't I written here on this subject! 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:37 | 3006593 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Not only possible, but predictable.  The two go hand-in-hand.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:42 | 3006398 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Criminals, wearing white collars and cashing their government checks, are employed at all levels of the pyramid scheme. If we can't get to the ones at the top, maybe we can get to the ones at the middle or bottom. How about we start by placeing all the cops under citizens arrest?

Or, at the very least, stop selling them food, gas, etc. Stop talking to them. Ignore them. Give them the silent treatment. Don't encourage them. They are the Redcoats

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:35 | 3006363 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

The bernank has plugged in his very special 'reflux apex perculation machine', and decided now is the time for shenanigans.

The filthy little bastard what he is.  On a brighter note, it is Friday, you now have two lovely days off work before starting the whole game again Monday.  Have a good weekend ZHers.  Whoever you are

;-)

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:35 | 3006364 falak pema
falak pema's picture

so much for euro scepticism fed on budget gridlock!

The market seems to love it. The more the EU is in grid lock the more free is Count Draghi, the real king; not those Euro eunuchs sitting in Brussels.

And the markets love Draghi to be free of all constraints! 

EurUSd now : 1.2968.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:39 | 3006366 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I challenge ZH to mention the exact level we should start re-shorting ES.  Please, step up to the challenge.   At this point, I see a re-test of the 50DMA around 1425 on Black Monday.  

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:01 | 3006483 J 457
J 457's picture

1,410 before the drop to 1,280.  Fiscal cliff not going away until Dec 22 where last minute compromise will be reached. 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:07 | 3006511 slingshot
slingshot's picture

1432

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:28 | 3006570 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

1404.1

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:37 | 3006377 ekm
ekm's picture

My definition of the stock market:

A PERENNIAL EFFORT TO LURE SUCKERS.

 

This is panic, pure and clean panic. It's forced buying on the hope that some idiot is left to buy the shit that primary dealers own.

 

DO NOT GET FOOLED.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:01 | 3006470 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

so game theory is to get short before the fiscal cliff frame work bullshit fails.. on the assumption that the legal insiders (congress) through MSM and the primary dealer pumpage are building short positions into this manipulated market, and again, never letting a crisis go to waste ?

I think we can assume that what ever direction the market heads into the deadline should be faded with everything being a staged manipulated show these days. If we drift lower into the deadline get long, a drift higher get short.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:37 | 3006378 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Great setup for monday's short.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:38 | 3006381 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Stopped out by that magical pop on the EURUSD the other night, stopped out on the magical pop on the US open. OK, maybe I'ma mug for continuing to short this market, but when it goes, it's going to really blow.

How can NOTHING from the Eurozone the other night, BAD job figures on Wednesday, bad US Mich figures the other day result in a 200 points Dow, 22 point S&P RISE? Even Bernanke wasn't pushing a good side the other day.

DavidC

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:55 | 3006456 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

David, you dont understand. 

 

 

 

We know its a Ponzi scheme, they know its a Ponzi scheme but for them its life or death.

 

The powers that be will do everything to keep it alive.

 

Save yourself some grief.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:07 | 3006512 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

If you buy farmland, you'll stop caring about this stuff and have confidence in returns on your investment.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:41 | 3006392 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is all about Greece.  Greece is what has the potential to explode swaps and take the whole system down.  Nothing else does in the near term.

The market is convinced that with nothing having changed, at all, the EU Fin Mins will reach agreement on Greece on Monday, where they could not last Monday or the Monday before that.

If they don't, and it's hard to see how they can, this will all go into freefall.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:56 | 3006462 DavidC
DavidC's picture

And then Spain...and then France...and then Italy...and then UK...and then....

DavidC

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:43 | 3006395 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Im all in

 

 

Long Cockroaches and ammo and AG

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:43 | 3006400 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

Gold up 1%,silver up 2% let see if the cap holds.

 p.s I am all in too.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:49 | 3006829 Boeing Boy
Boeing Boy's picture

not quite all in, waiting for 18++

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:44 | 3006407 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

CNBC talking heads are slinging jizz at the cameras.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:46 | 3006408 ekm
ekm's picture

People, people, people.

Stop chasing the news. It's got nothing with the news.

 

We are beyond the point of market decline. This stock market cannot possibly decline. It can only crater, otherwise the owners (primay dealers) of super uber hyper priced stocks have no other option but keep buying until the weakest link (s) collapse.

Go home and eat turkey. One second or minute or day or month, one time, it will crater.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:12 | 3006522 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the trouble is that ZH is a financial site, totally dependent on analysing market dynamics. 

If the market is frigid and pschyo-rigid like a queen wearing a chastity belt, the whole function of market analyst becomes meaningless. We are in feudal times and the queen is now in quarantine as the King is out Crusading, for the holy grail of fiat kingdom of heaven.

The day trader is CLUELESS as he is up against BOTS who act according to Oligarchy rationale totally disassociated with normal market rationale. The market is no longer the real tangible economy, its Alice in WOnderland. 

So ZH loses its focus in the sheer frustration of watching a game that has no rationale except that its irrational and guided by invisible hands like puppets on the string.

No wonder the TDs lost their cool, their pool games are taken over by THE HUSTLER. WS is now totally town of the Hustler.

Get used to it, and remember market analysis is dead in Deadwood. 

Until Wild Bill Hickock comes to town! 

What a nice place it used to be when Blondie had Dagmar as only knucklebrain in the house! 

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:45 | 3006409 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

I apologize. This happens everytime I go short. Sorry. Next time I really will do the opposite of what makes sense.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:52 | 3006836 PeteJE
PeteJE's picture

Relax, don't lose your position.  

 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:45 | 3006410 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

Cash flow smoothing/assurance - US Government style

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:47 | 3006419 Cunnial
Cunnial's picture

This market is a joke. And not a funny one either. 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:47 | 3006420 youngman
youngman's picture

Low volume..very low volume..and the HFT´s know it..so they can play very hard today....no fundimentals today..just playing around with the Turkey leftovers..

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:58 | 3006467 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Yes, and when it blows (and it will) the HFTs will either just waterfall it making 6th May 2010 look like a blip or they will just STOP.

DavidC

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:48 | 3006425 w00dmann
w00dmann's picture

I don't know about you, but I find it very difficult indeed to sit on the sidelines while catastrophic levels of debt, bad news and simply ginormous risk exists around the world, and have to watch smiling, drooling cocksuckers dry-hump the market to some of the highest levels in history.  Truly a bizarro world.  It's hard not to feel like you're "missing out" as prices ramp higher and higher.  Then again, I don't trade stocks anyway so I question how I can even feel like I'm "missing out"...?!  I guess that tells more about me than the markets.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:53 | 3006447 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I'm sure Bernake really gives a fuck.

Guess what?  You can stop him, he knows it, and he and his 'crew' are going to do whatever the fuck they want to do.

Get used to it.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:03 | 3006491 adr
adr's picture

The reason why they keep humping this market to record levels is to get you to capitulate and put your money in. The longer the retail investor holds out, the higer the market will go.

Cramer is just a ghetto market used car salesman. His job is to make it look like you are missing out on getting rich by not being in the market.

Investing in hyped up momo stocks is the same as a $20 Black Friday phone. It is meant to generate a buying stampede so all the handlers can transfer a useless piece of garbage to you, in return for your hard earned cash.

The wealthy can't be left holding the bag. That is the little person's job. That is really what happened with Netflix. Cramer was successful at $250 making people believe the stock was going to $500. Enough morons bought the stock and the insiders unloaded, crashing the price.

People are saying not to support the banks. Well you shouldn't support the stock market either. When you buy shares, the only thing you are doing is lining the pockets of the scum of the earth.

Why? Because someone convinced you that the path to wealth is holding a piece of paper tied to the ability of a company to fudge is books?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:05 | 3006504 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Step right up, folks, and see something you've never seen before...

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:12 | 3006528 w00dmann
w00dmann's picture

"Cramer is just a ghetto market used car salesman."

Heh heh. That one made me laugh! :)

Of course, what you say makes perfect sense. It sure does feel odd tho' sometimes when the world is dancing with irrational exhuberence, and you aren't singing the same song. Strange days indeed! :)

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:26 | 3006562 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I vested out of the stockmarket in 2007.

A lot of research ,and a little luck.

Everytime I feel tempted to slide back in,I just remember the look of

the CNBC sell siders, as the market just went down ,and down for months.

You really want to be in a market with no bids ?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:46 | 3006590 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

There are no sidelines, you bet on the deflation.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:53 | 3006444 IronShield
IronShield's picture

Efficient what?  Who cares?  Remember that saying from back in the day? "The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent."  Yeah, don't fight it, enjoy the ride down the fiat express; all aboard that's going aboard, biotches!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:54 | 3006450 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Agree, so I am in real assets. Gold, silver and quality miners. At least I feel I am not participating in the sham of stocks rising for no real economic reason and just being manipulated by algos.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 11:55 | 3006457 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

SPX 1,400 achieved.

Now, time to drift sidewise and then bang the fuck out of the close.

Golly.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:00 | 3006478 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Yep, same day, different toilet

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:03 | 3006477 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

spx @ 1402 = ME OUT !!

when spx @ 1354 (go back and check my posts to verify) I said go long and wait for 1340 to buy more.....then it dropped to 1343!! now @ 1403 (intraday high = 1404 so far).  Anyways i just unloaded my DEAD CAT BOUNCE LONG POSIITONS.  From 1354 avg price to 1402 avg price = nice gain !!!

same thing with euro, i 1) unloaded my eur shorts of 1.315 @ 1.272... 2) went long @ 1.272...dropped to 1.268..so what ??? 3) i now unloaded my eur LONGS @ 1.2965 and have reloaded the SHORTS.. next week a greek budget deal or so? either a) sell on the good news or b) baaaaad news coming = sell now either way !!

the best thing??? = spent about 10-20 minutes/DAY MAXIMUM monitoring casino and the news!!! that's it !!!

happy thanksgiving!!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:15 | 3006525 adr
adr's picture

and just like the casino, you guessed right on the roulette wheel a few times in a row and are up big time. Only until the pattern breaks and you lose it all.

In the early part of the summer the alligator tooth pattern of the market was repeating at perfect intervals. Just when the tip of the tooth came up to set up shorts for the next leg down, Bernanke issued a no news event and the market shot higher. If you went short like you were supposed to, you would have lost everything. If you traded on the technicals like you were supposed to, it ended up burning you. That is also part of the Wall Street con. The technical trade only works until it doesn't.

Being short at 1400 or long at 1350 is the same as betting black or red. The odds are the same and don't pretend it is anything other than a gamble. There is no technical reason or economic justification for the market to be at any price today. The only certainty is the house always wins.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:24 | 3006554 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

short history

august 2012 shorted MASSIVELY spx @ 1390, then pumped to 1474 high on day AFTER QE3.  I shorted @ 1390, 1430, 1474 I even called the TOP @ 1474 here at ZH, u can check posts

so my avg spx short positions = 1450, my avg euro shor positions = 1.315

covered spx in phases @ 1384, 1360...then went long @ 1360, 1354....my 1340 order DIDN'T get filled bc low was 1343..and i was away from computer-don't monitor casino all day..just 10-20 minutes/day max...

anyways, if you don't have a good predictive stomach...YOU HEDGE and you SCALE IN..you don't go in, in one shot...its easy to scale in, which is what i was doing shorts spx from 1390 to 1474..also remember what goes up must come down, also manipulation is TEMPORARY.

cheers-roger out

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:04 | 3006497 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

yess  ..dont you just love the sound of shorts squeezed again and again?

about 10 days ago...Durden wrote: Chief Exemption Officer will be busy....gues what...that was in the bottom...since then up up up yes...wrong call(again).Shorts soon to be BBQD into the Christmas.Thank you.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:05 | 3006507 Cheshire
Cheshire's picture

Its one of those days thats too obvious that something is off. Somebody left the rMp bot on.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:12 | 3006527 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Pssst:  They don't give a fuck.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:14 | 3006529 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

I don't know, but ... next week is month-end with year end bonus on the line.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:18 | 3006538 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Why wouldn't I be long euro after they created a "life after people" Continent courtesy of two World Wars? I mean obviously no one can be complaining about inflation over there yes, yes? They pooh-poohed all the actions taken by Paulson & Co after Alan Grennspan collapsed the totality of Wall Street right? So surely "it's safe to have a run rate in BMW's" yes yes?

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:21 | 3006544 Heart of Gold
Heart of Gold's picture

We'll probably see a Black Monday sale.....off now

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:30 | 3006578 EcoJoker
EcoJoker's picture

I have my VIX Calls ready to go for Monday.  :)

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 12:53 | 3006637 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This is exaxtly why I don't trade the ponzi euro.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:09 | 3006689 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Silver about to crack 34.00 dollars - Time to go long BLYTHE!!!

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 13:17 | 3006712 akak
akak's picture

But it still only costs $5 to dig from the ground.

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 14:35 | 3006982 SilverSavant
SilverSavant's picture

And they dig less of it each year.  And there is only 1/10 of the investible silver that there was the last time it hit $300/oz (Infl Adj).in 1980 when there was 1/10 the paper money flying around.    A person would have to be a complete freakin idiot to buy any of that shit.   Hell, did you know that the hot market these days are Unicorn Turds. 

Fri, 11/23/2012 - 20:03 | 3007668 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

There's a basic difference between gold's levitation and the rally that stocks are undergoing.

 

Gold is in a primary bull market, in spite of the current correction. So gold's advance is just a rally within a primary bull market. Not suspect.

 

Stocks are in a primary bear market that was signaled on Nov 16. Thus, stocks advance is a rally within a primary bear market and to add insult to injury with extremely low volume. Highly suspect.

 

Here you have the relevant charts and commentary thereto:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-update-for-nov-23-...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!