Goodbye Petrodollar, Hello Agri-Dollar?

Tyler Durden's picture

When it comes to firmly established, currency-for-commodity, self reinforcing systems in the past century of human history, nothing comes close to the petrodollar: it is safe to say that few things have shaped the face of the modern world and defined the reserve currency as much as the $2.3 trillion/year energy exports denominated exclusively in US dollars (although recent confirmations of previously inconceivable exclusions such as Turkey's oil-for-gold trade with Iran are increasingly putting the petrodollar status quo under the microscope). But that is the past, and with rapid changes in modern technology and extraction efficiency, leading to such offshoots are renewable and shale, the days of the petrodollar "as defined" may be over. So what new trade regime may be the dominant one for the next several decades? According to some, for now mostly overheard whispering in the hallways, the primary commodity imbalance that will shape the face of global trade in the coming years is not that of energy, but that of food, driven by constantly rising food prices due to a fragmented supply-side unable to catch up with increasing demand, one in which China will play a dominant role but not due to its commodity extraction and/or processing supremacy, but the contrary: due to its soaring deficit for agricultural products, and in which such legacy trade deficit culprits as the US will suddenly enjoy a huge advantage in both trade and geopolitical terms. Coming soon: the agri-dollar.

But first, some perspectives from Karim Bitar on CEO of Genus, on what is sure to be the biggest marginal player of the agri-dollar revolution, China, whose attempt to redefine itself as a consumption-driven superpower will fail epically and very violently, unless it is able to find a way to feed its massive, rising middle class in a cheap and efficient manner. But before that even, take note of the following chart which takes all you know about global trade surplus and deficit when narrowed down to what may soon be that all important agricultural (hence food) category, and flips it around on its head.

Karim Bitar on China:

Structurally, China is at a huge disadvantage as it accounts for 20% of the world’s population, but only 7% of arable land. Compare that with Brazil which has the reverse of those ratios. What that does for a country like China is to incentivise the adoption of technification. Let’s look at their porcine market, which represents 50% of global production and consumption. In China, to slaughter roughly 600 mn pigs per year, which is about six times the demand in the US, they have a breeding herd of about 50 mn animals. In the US, the comparable number is only about 6 mn so there is a huge productivity lag.


Owing to its structural disadvantages, China is much more focused on increasing efficiency. For that, it needs to accelerate technification. So, we’re seeing a whole series of government incentives at a national level, a provincial level and a local level, focusing on the need to move toward integrated pork production because that’s a key way to optimise total economics, both in terms of pig production, slaughtering, processing and also actually taking the pork out into the marketplace.


The Chinese government is important as a customer to us because of its clarity of vision on food security. It has seen the Arab Spring, and it is cognisant of the strong socio-political implications of higher food prices. Pork prices could account for about 25% of the CPI, so it knows it can be a major issue. It’s because of all these pressures, that China is more focused on responding to the food challenge. It’s a sort of a burning platform there.


...Take milk production in China and India. China is basically trying to leapfrog and avoid small-scale farming by adopting a US model. In the US, you tend to have very large herds. Today about 30% of US milk production is from herds of 2,000 plus, and we expect that to reach 60% within the next five years. Today in China, there are already several hundred dairy herds of over 1,000. However in India, there’ll be less than 50. The average dairy herd size is closer to five, so it’s very fragmented. So the reality is that a place like China, because of government policies, subsidies and a much more demanding focused approach to becoming self-sufficient, has a much greater ability to respond to a supply challenge rapidly.

The problem for China, and to a lesser extent India, however one defines it, is that it will need increasingly more food, processed with ever greater efficiency for the current conservative regime to be able to preserve the status quo, all else equal. And for a suddenly very food trade deficit-vulnerable China, it means that the biggest winners may be Brazil, the US and Canada. Oh and Africa. The only question is how China will adapt in a new world in which it finds itself in an odd position: a competitive trade disadvantage, especially its primary nemesis: the USA.

So for those curious how a world may look like under the Agri-dollar, read on for some timely views from GS' Hugo Scott-Gall.

Meaty problems, simmering solutions

What potential impacts could a further re-pricing of food have on the world? Why might food re-price? Because demand is set to rise faster than supply can respond. The forces pushing demand higher are well known, population growth, urbanisation and changing middle class size and tastes. In terms of economic evolution, the food price surge comes after the energy price surge, as industrialisation segues into consumption growth (high-income countries consume about 30% more calories than low income nations, but the difference in value is about eight times). Here, we are keenly interested in how the supply side can respond, both in terms of where and how solutions are found, and who is supplying them. We are drawn towards an analogy with the energy industry here: the energy industry has invested heavily in efficiency, and through innovation, clusters of excellence, and access to capital has created solutions, the most obvious of which are renewable energy and shale. The key question for us is, can and will something similar happen in food?

It’s hard to argue that the ingredients that sparked energy’s supply-side response are all present in the food supply chain. In food, there’s huge fragmentation, a lack of coordination, shortages of capital in support industries (infrastructure) and  only pockets of isolated innovation. We suspect that the supply-side response may well remain uncoordinated and slower than in other industries. But things are changing. Those who disagree with Thomas Malthus will always back human ingenuity. As well as looking at where the innovators in the supply chain are (from page 10), and where there are sustainably high returns through IP (e.g., seeds, enzymes etc.), we need to think about the macro and micro economic impacts of higher food prices, and soberingly, the geo-political ones.

Slimming down

Could the demand destruction that higher energy prices have precipitated occur in food? There are some important differences between the two that make resolving food imbalances tougher. Food consumption is very fragmented and there is less scope for substitution.

Changing eating habits is much harder than changing the fuel burnt for power. And, ultimately, food spend is less discretionary that energy, i.e., the scope for efficient consumption is more limited and consumers will not (and cannot) voluntarily delay consumption, let alone structurally reduce it. This means that higher food prices, especially in economies where food is a greater portion of household spending, will lead to either lower consumption of discretionary items or a reduced ability to service debt (with consequent effects on asset prices). When oil prices spiked in the late 1970s, US consumers spent c.9% of their income on energy vs. an average of 7% over the previous decade. And yet, the total savings rate rose by c.2% as they overcompensated on spending cuts on other items. 2007-09 saw a similar phenomenon too. Even the most cursory browse through history shows that high food costs can act as a political tinderbox (so too high youth unemployment), and we believe there is a degree of overconfidence with regard to the economic impact of food prices in the West: food costs relative to incomes may look manageable, but when there is no buffer (i.e., a minimal savings rate) then there are problems. Food spend as a percentage of total household consumption expenditure is a relatively benign 14% in the US, versus c.20% for most major European nations and Japan. This rises to c.40% for China and 45% for India. Of course, as wages rise, the proportion of food within total consumption expenditure falls, but that is only after consumption hits a ceiling. Currently, India and China consume about 2,300 and 2,900 calories per capita per day, compared to a DM average of about 3,400. If the two countries eat like the West, then food production must rise by 12%. And if the rest of the world catches up to these levels then that number is north of 50%.

The scramble for Africa’s eggs

In terms of ownership of resources, food, like energy, can be broken into haves and have-nots. While there are countries  that have been successful without resources, it is quite clear that inheriting advantages (in this case good soil, climate and water) makes life easier. But that, of course, is only half the battle; what is also required is organisation, capital, education and collaboration to make it happen. Take Africa. It has 60% of the world’s uncultivated land, enviable demographics and lots of water (though not evenly distributed). Basic infrastructure, consolidation of agricultural land and minimal use of fertilisers and crop protection could do wonders for agricultural output in the region. But that’s easier said than done. Several African economies also need better access to information, education, property rights and access to markets and capital. Put another way, it needs better institutions. If Africa does deliver over the coming decades, rising food prices will alter the economics of investing in the region. The next scramble for Africa should be about food (while it is about hard commodities now and in the late 19th century it was about empire size). Fertiliser consumption has a diminishing incremental impact on yields, but Africa (along with several developing economies elsewhere) is far from touching that ceiling. Currently, Africa accounts for just 3% of global agricultural trade, with South Africa and Côte d'Ivoire together accounting for a third of the entire continent’s exports. But if the world wants to feed itself then it needs Africa to emerge as an agricultural powerhouse.

Higher up the production curve is China, which has been industrialising its agriculture as it seeks to move towards self sufficiency. Power consumed by agricultural machinery has almost doubled over the last decade, while the number of tractors per household has tripled, driving per hectare output up by an average of more than 20% over the same period.

Even so, in just the last 10 years China has gone from surplus to deficit in several meat, vegetable and cereal categories. So a lot more needs to be done, and a shortage of water could also prove to be an impediment, especially in some of its remote areas.

The power of the pampas

With significant surpluses in soybeans, maize, meat and oilseeds, Brazil and Argentina have led the Latin American  continent in terms of food trade. Current surpluses are 6x and 3x 2000 levels, versus only a 30% increase in the previous decade, and are rising. A key impediment to boosting exports is infrastructure. Food has to travel a long way just to reach the port, and then further still to reach other markets. Forty days is possibly acceptable for iron ore to reach China on a ship from Brazil, but that would prevent several perishable food items from being exported. And hence, solution providers in terms of durability, packaging, refrigeration and processing will be in demand. Also, while you could attribute a lot of the agricultural success of LatAm economies to good conditions, they have also benefitted from the adoption of agricultural innovation. For instance, more than a third of crops planted in the region are as seeds that are genetically modified, versus more than 45% in the US and about 12% in Asia. Genetically modified crops are not new. They provide solutions to some of the most frequent constraints on agricultural yields (resistance to environmental challenges including drought and more efficient absorption of soil nutrients, fertilisers and water) or add value by enhancing nutrient composition or the shelf life of the crop. And while the adoption of GM crops and seeds is far from wholehearted, particularly in Europe, it’s most certainly a key part of the solution in economies that are set to face a more severe food shortage.

The last mango in Paris?

Europe’s deficit/surplus makes for interesting reading. Seventeen of the 27 EU countries face a food trade deficit, and yet, the EU overall recorded a surplus (barely) in 2010 for only the second time in the last 50 years (see chart). Broken down further, the UK is the largest food importer, followed by Germany and Italy, while the Netherlands and France lead exports thanks to their very large processing industries. If Europe’s future is one of relative economic decline, then reduced purchasing power when bidding for scarce food resources is an unappetising prospect. Therefore, it needs all
the innovative solutions it can muster, or import substitution will have to increase. It’s important to note that being in overall surplus or deficit can mask variety at the category level, i.e., Europe is a net importer of beef, fruit & vegetables, and corn, while its exports are helped by alcohol and wine specifically. Japan, in particular, is very challenged. It is the only country in the preceding table to show a deficit in every single food category.

We conclude our trip around the world in North America. Large-scale production, access to markets, a home to innovation
and favourable regulation has meant that the US (and Canada) continues to dominate some of the key agricultural resources such as soybeans, corn, fodder, wheat and oilseeds. Put this self sufficiency together with the medium-term potential for energy self sufficiency and relatively good demographics (better than China), and a rosier prognosis for the  US, versus the rest of the Western world and parts of Asia, begins to fall into place.

Agri-dollars on the rise

Before we conclude, we need to devote a few lines to the geo-political and macro economic consequences of higher food prices. It’s likely that countries will act increasingly strategically to secure food supply, and that protections (e.g., high export tariffs) may well rise. It is also likely that there are special bi-lateral deals to access stable and secure food supply.

This could obviously damage the integrity of the WTO-sponsored system. Another consequence might be the emergence of agri-dollars, in the same way that petro-dollars emerged in the 1970s. This may seem far fetched (the value of the world’s energy exports is US$2.3 tn compared to US$1.08 tn for agriculture) but it’s important to think through the consequences. The big exporters, especially those with the scope to grow their output, may well have sustainable surpluses that can be reinvested into their economies (or extracted by a narrow part of society). Similarly, the consequence of being a net importer will be an effective tax on consumption: disposable income in the US would jump if oil was US$25/bbl.

As we have said, we would expect the big gainers of a meaningful rise in food prices in real terms to be Brazil, the US and Canada, while Japan, South Korea and the UK would face challenges. The top chart is important: look how China’s surplus has turned to deficit. What will happen if the Chinese middle class swells as it is expected to? And that’s  the rub; what we have been used to in terms of food’s importance is set to change. How food moves around the world is likely to change, and the flow of currency around the world will also likely be impacted.

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Hulk's picture

Nice! Whats in that little barrel ???

hedgeless_horseman's picture



That is where I make vinegar from the little bit of wine left in the bottom of bottles.  See the glass dispenser just to the left?

Hulk's picture

Yes I do! What is the procedure?

hedgeless_horseman's picture



  1. Collect the bottoms of wine bottles in a bottle until you have about a barrel's worth.
  2. Pour the wine into the oak barrell via a screened stainless funnel. You do not need a "culture" to make vinegar.
  3. Leave the screened funnel in the bunghole to let air in, but keep fruit flies out.
  4. Pour out vinegar in about a month.
  5. Repeat without cleaning oak barrel.
centerline's picture

Thanks HH.  Would I love to have propery and resource to do some of the stuff you do.  Practicing on smaller scale though.  Bread is a hard one  - lol.  I have made my share of hockey pucks for sure.  Am going to try this vinegar thing... sounds like fun and I always have a bottom bit of wine left over after cooking (yeah... I only use the wine for cooking... cough...cough).

Gardening has been interesting as well.  One of my favorites that always gets the wife shaking her head is pineapple.  Cut off the head and stick in the dirt... couple of years later and you get another one!  Buy one, get one free... delayed, but no effort needed (other than bending over twice... once to plant and once to pick).  LOL.  I must have about 20 pineapple plants now in various places.

Saw your post about swiss chard the other day.  That is definately next on my list.  Potatoes are another no-brainer.  I have even had luck using store bought organics as seed potatoes.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Is this really all it takes to grow a pineapple?? Gosh Ive been throwing out the top for years...I feel so foolish. Do you live in a tropical region? Living in inland San Diego means any plant must survive in temps 30-105. I can grow citrus , apples , stone fruit and passion vines easily (fighting off the birds ,squirrels and rabbits are a challenge ). Since Dole grew in the Hawaiian Islands I assumed they couldn't grow in the mainland. Oh well, burst my bubble and tell me you live in the tropics


nmewn's picture

"Is this really all it takes to grow a pineapple??"

Thats all it takes...that and water/time. My brother-in-law has a bunch of them in pots in various stages of growth, central Fla, with an occasional freeze...they do fine ;-)

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

ZeroHedge, come for the no where else seen news worthy stories, chat with fellow nuts and learn to grow pineapple! Sounds like heaven to me. To bad I can't make a living at it. Damn reality so intrusive!


Hulk's picture

Nmewn, me thinks the good biologist thinks us nuts. You, luxuriating in aligator tail and ruminating on Florida pineapple and me composting my best outputs...

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Yeah, both of you are nuts....but truly great fun! Rather be hanging out here than fighting off corpulent zombies over Chinese trinkets. I originally came here for the articles but the fascinating people and the varied view points got me hooked!


krispkritter's picture

Re: pineapples. When you cut the top off, leave just a bit of flesh on the tops, remove the harder outer portion(rind) and any  leaves at the base. Keep in moist soil and/or you can place it in a shallow dish of water(kind of like avocadoes) and in a week or so you'll see little white roots dropping down from the brown nodules on the fruit. For over-wintering in cold climate, use a cold frame, small hoop-house, or greenhouse. Even if marginally frosted, they will typically survive even if they look dead. Don't cut any of the dead portion away until it has shown new growth and then be careful. You can grow avocados, figs, pineapples, etc. in this manner and all in pots(along with bananas, potatoes, etc.) so they can be moved to warmer, sunnier locations in cold weather. I'm north of nmewn and inland so we get freezes here(Central FL) but I have all of the above growing year round. And pineapples should continue to produce for many years. Google for methods to induce fruiting using apples or chemicals.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Thanks so much kk for the info. I'm going to look at this more closely. I do have a large 50' north facing porch that has a overhang that would be great for overwintering. My large blue hydrangea does well there as long as bring it in during the extreme heat. My mother in law can't believe I can grow a hydrangea in my climate; they generally only thrive in coastal climates. Now if anyone else knows how to get a Macadamia nut tree to fruit ( mines 7 years old lush and beautiful but won't flower) or knows how to get a Champagne mango to start from the pit I would be eternally grateful!


tip e. canoe's picture

to encourage your tree to fruit, you may want to investigate ormus.

given your background, you could probably whip up a strong batch from scratch quite easily.

Yen Cross's picture

 balsamic vinegar and focaccia bread...  YUM!

A Lunatic's picture

Peter Reinhart has some very detailed books on the subject of  bread baking which I have found to be very useful. He has a very good book on whole grains/wheat bread that is extremely illuminating. I highly recommend such a resource for anyone interested in understanding the science of bread baking.

Overfed's picture


BTW, love those Shun knives.

StychoKiller's picture

Missing from your list is yeast, unless you intend to produce flour bricks...

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Yes, yeast...and water...and salt...none of which are really secrets to bread making.  

augustus caesar's picture

@ Abitdodgie and all those interested in learning to bake bread


Look for 'My Bread' by Jim Lahey.

It's my favorite book to recommend to beginning bakers as Jim takes his inspiration from the historical principles of bread baking as they have been practiced for thousands of years.

Peter Reinhart's books are excellent but I suggest you practice with Lahey's method before moving on to Mr.Reinhart's more advanced techniques.'s picture



I think my bread flour was too old...


I'm currently baking cookies with flour purchased in 2008. Kept it in the original bag wrapped up inside two plastic bread bags and twist tied. Good as new. The only item from my 2008 hoard which has gone off is the yeast. I'm going to try keeping a bit of sourdough to alleviate the yeast storage problem.

StychoKiller's picture

Normally, yeast is kept separate from flour (or other goodies [sugars] the yeast critters like to eat).'s picture

The yeast i had which became inactive was sealed in its own little packet.

In sourdough preparation one keeps a starter amount of dough with yeast included in the fridge. That is then used to make loaves by adding fresh ingredients and a starter piece is taken from the new batch and placed back in the fridge for next time. At least that's my recollection. I haven't made sourdough bread in over thirty years. Any tips would be appreciated.

AurorusBorealus's picture

An excellent piece on the macro environment for future long-term investment.  However, the key component here is demographics.  The history of the world has been such that large spikes upward in the population of humans (such as what has occurred in the past 200 years), are frequently followed by massive declines in population owing to contagious diseases (the book to read is William McNeil, Plagues and Peoples) which arise from the exchange of viruses between people and ever larger numbers of domesticated or herd animals.  I would also take a look at companies on the forefront of research for immunization against viruses, especially air-born or droplet born respiratory viruses... because if there is one trend that can be measured with accuracy over the history of human habitation it is the history of population and disease and the inevitable result of large increases in population is the advent of new and deadly contagious diseases.  This history of disease can be graphed, mathed, charted, and demonstrated with much more certainty than any of the nonsense that passes muster in economics (which looks at data for 100 years and then draws sweeping conclusion that have no basis in probability or statistics from what is, in reality, a snapshot of human history).

EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

The Dollar is not backed by shit. It's a piece of paper folks. It does not matter if you own all the farmland in the world unless Monsatan decides to allow you to join their mafia

Money Squid's picture

Its the thought that counts. The "petrodollar" seems reasonable so its accepted as a valid premise. The US made OPEC countries offers they could not refuse. But, keeping the people believing in the petrodollar system is the key to keeping the current system viable. US dollars flow to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, excess profits are used by KSA to purchase US debt, US consulting and construction services, and US weapons. The money needs to flow in an endless circle and the people need to have confidence that the system is viable and will remain so. Confidnece is basis for the confidence game. If gold becomes the basis and not oil the price of oil will fall and gold will skyrocket and the peeps will lose "faith" in the US dollar and the US economy will crash hard.

koncaswatch's picture

I'm where Monsatan is banned; a good thing. The flip side is we're not as productive per acre; but at least we can eat what we grow.

Philippines's picture

I have to agree here. In my opinion, what is "money" worth when you have no food. People are starting to wake up and think"what is money" as their cost of living for everything is constantly increasing. People are starting to realize that food is more important than money.

And with the US drought catching up and other food either being traded is non-existent, or ends up going somewhere else -- prices will only go up (as does the money supply, ironically.)

Make sure you have more food than money ;) 

Oh regional Indian's picture

Agricultural commodities are definitely the future of "power", geo-politically, socially... but the Agri-dollar is a stretch.

A quick look at this years drought in the US, it's burgeoning central-demand via SNAP, Corn/ethanol fuel consumption, excessive meat consumption (meat is a terribly in-efficient resource as manufactured/farmed food, takes an obscenne amount of feed/water per pound to produce, plus, Factory Farming is famous for it's "run-off" water pollution and waste management problem)...throw in GMO food from the US facing a global back-lash....

Food/Water might be the great global equalizers if the US military leviathan can be corralled, somehow. 

Else it's either the great global hunger games or a blue-hemeted, Agenda 21 driven technocracy/1984/rationed world for us all.

Aquaponics might be the way to go.

Check out this amazing story:


AurorusBorealus's picture

Another potential problem for U.S. agricultural production is the location of nuclear power plants and the potential for nuclear accidents in flood-plains or earthquake zones to render large portions of U.S. farmland unfit.  George Washington has pointed this out several times on this site.

Jreb's picture

O said: "meat is a terribly in-efficient resource as manufactured/farmed food". That's why we eat deer and moose. 50,000 wolves can't be wrong.

BTW - like your posts - always thoughfull even when I don't agree with them.


Money Squid's picture

eat wolves, dear and mouse. Who do those wolves think they are anyway?'s picture

Some folks are too benighted to realize that "nuisance birds" can be harvested for low cost and delicious entrees.


Wild Turkeys Overrun Brookline, Mass.



Wild turkeys have been a strange but common sight in suburban and even urban areas in metropolitan Boston for some time, but some residents of nearby Brookline say the birds are becoming more common and increasingly aggressive in their town.



Towns around Boston are beginning to respond to the problem by holding town meetings and informational sessions and hoping to find a solution to the nuisance birds.



Experts agree that the best way to avoid a confrontation with a wild turkey is to steer clear of it if possible, to not be intimidated and spray water at the bird if available.



Hulk's picture

These be some tough old birds Crockett! The breast meat is edible, but dem legs be too tough to chew...'s picture

Never ate wild turkey myself but I've seen them walking about and I know folks around here do hunt them for food. Not a leg man anyway, I like breasts (as a general aside: get your minds out of the gutter, people!).

Hulk's picture

Set out a live trap.Cut off Turkey head. Bring water in an applebutter kettle to 140 degrees, dip bird in repeatedly until the feathers start to come off.

Pull bird out of water and pluck feathers. clean bird, then cook!

OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

They have a recipe for the "bush turkeys" they have here in Australia:

Step 1: Put plucked bird in a large kettle with several large stones

Step 2: Boil for three hours

Step 3: Throw away the bird and eat the stones

Philippines's picture


I mean seriously, that is excellent food! I guess the problem there is that no one would know what to do with the bird if they managed to kill it... sigh...

"Experts agree the best way to avoid confrontation with a wild turkey" -- LOL!!!L!!! Thanks "experts" for your "expert" knowledge. Here is my "expert" advice:

If you see a turkey: kill it and eat it. Kill it, burn or boil its feathers off, then cut it in the middle and remove its guts like a fish. Chop and sautee the guts with garlic and onion for excellent appetizer. Cook the meat/bones of the bird how you want. Enjoy life! (And dont forget salt / chili/pepper!)'s picture



Now that's some real expert advice. Bon appetit!

scatterbrains's picture

yes my dear,  eating dear is delicious indeed.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Good to know/hear Jreb. Thanks.

And yes, hunted, sanely and consumed as a part of one's diet, all things stay in balance. Factory farming is a curse on mankind.


Azwethinkweiz's picture

Topsoil. At the rate we currently export it, we'll run out and have about 7% of arable land also. Look it up.

Marley's picture

Global warming (or GOD, depending on your beliefs)  is going to re-distribute the arable land.  Kind of a wealth redistribution.  Didn't know Global Warming (or GOD) was a socialist did you?'s picture

Global warming and socialism are equally fallacious if that's what you meant.

massbytes's picture

You will wish is was fallicious in a few years.  Those pesky scientists lying to us again...right?'s picture

Some scientists are finally starting to tell the truth:


'I made a mistake': Gaia theory scientist James Lovelock admits he was 'alarmist' about the impact of climate change



  • British scientist admits he had 'extrapolated too far' in earlier book
  • Claims other environmental commentators such as Al Gore did the same




Scientist who said climate change sceptics had been proved wrong accused of hiding truth by colleague

Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at America’s prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Muller’s claim that he has proven global warming sceptics wrong was also a ‘huge mistake’, with no  scientific basis.



Prof Curry is a distinguished climate researcher with more than 30 years experience and the second named co-author of the BEST project’s four research papers.

‘This is nowhere near what the  climate models were predicting,’ Prof Curry said. ‘Whatever it is that’s going on here, it doesn’t look like it’s being dominated by CO2.’