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Fiscal Cliff Update: 'Little Progress Toward A Compromise In Past Ten Days"
Two Fridays ago on November 16, just as AAPL was in danger of plunging below the absolute last support level of $500 after which freefall for it and the entire market begins, a truly unexpected deus ex machina appeared for those still clinging to long stock positions: politicians, in this case John Boehner and Nancy Pelosi, who held a press conference in which they defined the recently launched "Fiscal Cliff" talks as "constructive."
In reality, this appearance was nothing but a photo opportunity for talking heads (as explained in "Risk Ramp on Boehner Banality"), and one which as Nancy Pelosi herself admitted later, served simply to halt what then looked like an assured free fall in the markets. Since then the ongoing rally in stocks and the EURUSD has been predicated on the "constructiveness" of the talks actually being real. Because while a fiscal cliff solution, or rather a compromise - one in which the status quo will be extended and no news spending cuts or major tax hikes will appear, will certainly be implemented, the question is what will take to get the career politicians to bend to even this tiny "compromise" and what is the sequence of events of such a catalyst. As is well-known, Goldman, unlike almost every other sellside group on Wall Street, except for Morgan Stanley, still sees a tumble in the S&P to unchanged for the year levels as being the key driver that forces DC to cobble a deal (to be sure, Goldman then expects stocks to surge to over 1500 for 2013).
Judging by the latest update from Reuters, Goldman will likely be right, if only in the short term. As Reuters admits, " U.S. lawmakers have made little progress in the last 10 days toward a compromise to avoid the harsh tax increases and government spending cuts scheduled for Jan. 1, a senior Democratic senator said on Sunday." That this update comes after the "big" market swoon into the recent lows from November 16, is certainly cause for alarm, because it means that at least one more violent market whipsaw to the downside will have to take place before there is any cliff progress to report.
From Reuters:
U.S. lawmakers have made little progress in the last 10 days toward a compromise to avoid the harsh tax increases and government spending cuts scheduled for Jan. 1, a senior Democratic senator said on Sunday.
"Unfortunately, for the last 10 days, with the House and Congress gone for the Thanksgiving recess ... much progress hasn't been made," Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, told ABC's "This Week" program.
A deadline is looming. Absent action by lawmakers and President Barack Obama, roughly $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts will start to hit households and companies in early January.
Durbin said Democrats are willing to allow small changes to parts of these entitlement programs, including public health insurance programs for the elderly and poor, but the Social Security government pension program should not be on the table.
"Bring entitlement reform into the conversation. Social Security, set (it) aside," Durbin said.
In other words, our assessment of the Boehner-Pelosi photo-op was once again spot on.
Remember: politicians are never in a rush to "resolve" something unless real money loss - either their own or of their primary lobbyists - is at stake. And Wall Street will make sure of just that. It will also be sure to buy ahead of everyone else once the real can kicking exercise du jour is completed. At least until the realization that nothing has been actually resolved kicks in. That bridge will be crossed in due course.
But first a far more looming bridge is that of the Cliff, on whose crossing there has been no progress made, for which Obama has said will demand double the previously expected amount in tax hikes ($1.6 trillion over ten years, or enough to fund the US budget deficit for one month), and which will collapse very soon, as there are now just 12 full sessions of Congress until the end of the year.
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Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Fat chance.
Doomed, fucking doomed I say.
Notice the hints being surreptitiously telegraphed?
Boner says that ObamaDon'tCare has to be on the table and Yomma is on holiday? Nazi says she just is trying to goose, talk up the markets, Bollox Chamblss is gonna go for more taxes and Peace Has Been Established in the Middle East while the Economy is Doing Just Fucking Fine.
And its in everybody's best political interests to drive the bus over the fucking cliff, starve the peasantry so's they can blame the other guy for the problem and the majority of the sheeple will yell scream and pontificate how its the other guys fault.
Who the fuck cares? Bankrupt that fascist government.
4 day work week, huh?
Those hard working congressmen must put in long hours!
Printing presses for the rich.
Soylent green for the poor.
+1 -- 3d printing presses for the rich making solyent green of the poor.
Mofo's still on the 1800's holiday schedule, when they had to get back home for the holiday's by horse-carriage.
Fiscal Cliff An Artificial Crisis. Fiscal cliff was manufactured to shift more of the burden of the crisis onto ordinary people.
A video interview with Michael Hudson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTxY-oZuxB4
"But we've always done it this way...."
Such long hours that they need plenty of time before Christmas to rest up.
Why do they call them "Bush Tax cuts"? Was Bush on the socialist wagon when he did this? I'ze confused lol
We all know the debt ceiling will be raised. It is QE to infinity. Load up on gold and silver.
http://schiffblog.blogspot.ca/
... and then get ready to hand it over during after the executive order banning personal ownership is enacted. Don't worry, they'll give you $36us(eless) an ounce for your gold.
I'm more interested in what they will give me for my copper, brass and lead.
when does the debt ceiling talk start? I wonder if cnbc will just keep using the "rise above it' pins to appropriately apply to the debt ceiling.
They have a week to resolve the cliff, or it's tippy the canoe in the river. The debt ceiling is moot at this point in time.
We went over the debt cliff long ago. It's so deep it takes a while to hit bottom. No changes will be attempted until that happens. That's when the pain starts.
You are not allowed to thing logically, 0 + 2 = 1.
Two wrongs don't make a right, but three rights make a left.
short of default nothing will be fixed. the masses have figured out how to vote for bread and circuses...
I wouldn't blame the masses. They didn't:
If not I would assume that our govt is engaging in MMT
Fical cliff, fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff.
Is much easier for the plebes to digest than auesterity measures.
Preparing for the fiscal cliff will goes over much better than forced Austerity. Is this why the media keeps drilling this phrase into our heads?
Oh and "debt jubilee" sounds so warm and comfie...
Sounds like a dessert. Can I have mine a la mode?
I want mine flaming. More realistic that way...
If you go over the cliff, but no one hears you scream, did it really happen?
Yes, they were on Christmas Recess and not paying any attention.
This is true. The "Fiscal Cliff" will be spun as if it's some sort of natural event that just happens. It's already in play so nobody gets blamed for it. In politics, not getting blamed for bad stuff is absolutely the first concern. On the other hand, passing austerity measures and cutting popular programs is a certain path to a shortened ride on the political gravy train, no matter if you are Democrat or Repub.
So in 12 days these 535 partisans will reach an agreement that they've been unable to reach in the last 12 months and more? NOT!
I think the senate leadership WANTS the tax increases of the fiscal cliff mandates and is willing to pin the blame on spending cuts on the minority party, thus, no incentive to reach a deal.
Forget recovery; hello bigger-than-life recession. Given the precarious state of the world's economy, this could be a tipping point to something so big the politicians and the Fed can no longer kick down the road.
Doing anything but letting the tax cuts expire and spending cuts go into effect is kicking the can. How did we get so fucked up that even on ZH, people can't tell up from down?
The fiscal cliff is a small bit of salvation, no matter what scary overlay graphic and music CNN dubs in.
they can kick the shit out of this can. they can all agree that the cuts set to take place would do severe harm. they need another year to think it over. all cuts set to take place are taken off the table. all tax increases set to kick in are put off until further notice. they punt the debt ceiling to 30 trillion to buy 3 more years. they beg ratings agencies to downgrade us so people run to treasuries like last time and lower rates. problem solved.
The only thing I would amend there is the hike. They will hike it 19.[something] trillion (sort of like $19.99 being easier to sell than $20.00) with some sort of super secret automatic additional increases that apply if a series of useless promises are met.
Agreed, just look at Japan
At the last minute, they will pass the Great Compromise that extends it another 6-12 months.
Keep in mind that the Democrats have already abandoned their payroll tax cut.
The Great Compromise at a minimum is going to revert that tax rate to its previous level. If nothing at all else happens other than extend everything -- THAT won't be extended -- because both parties say now that it is defunding Soc. Sec.
This means that in a Great Compromise scenario that you are envisioning, there is 120 Billion of destimulus. That's 0.8% of GDP drag, already defined with no constituency to prevent it.
Not so fast:
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Support is quietly mounting in the U.S. Congress, especially among Democrats, to extend a payroll tax holiday for 160 million Americans to protect workers from an immediate hit in their take-home pay at the beginning of next year, according to lawmakers."
Of course, it may be a gambit to get something else, but I know for sure that many Dems would love to keep this in place. It conditions us to think of SS as something that is routinely funded by the general fund...
And if that happens we WILL be downgraded again, and deservedly so.
the sneaky little bastards will tie it up with another whistle-by-the-graveyard bill and pass it under the door either day before xmas or new years...sneaky little bastards
I got a new way to pass it real quiet like.
On page 3,892 of the bill, insert a sub-paragraph which refers to a foot note found only in Appendix 24 volume 9 part 2 section VII which states that; "all such unnecessary and useless horseshit* to pass this bill that nobody wants to be associated with shall automatically take effect on the last Friday night of the year 2012 if and only if no member of Congress are able to vote on said bill for which no vote shall be held, and announced unceremoniously by the Sergent at Arms to an Empty Chamber at midnight the day of Christmas Eve."
* hereafter known as the "Unnecessary and Useless Horseshit Clause."tm
....as a member of congress; errr, zero hedge, I approve this message
Better copyright UUHC as well.
and Pelosi won't read it...
"little progress in the last 10 days toward a compromise"
This comes as a complete surprise. I am shocked and appalled !!! A complete surprise !!!
Credit downgrade in 3,2,1
What a clownshow...
Just another dog and pony show, folks; the end has already been predetermined; the middle class gets further decimated, and we lose even more of our freedoms.
They want to get the middle class to pay even more for the financial crisis.
The compromise that will be reached is that the current "budget" will be extended until the next CONgress can be seated, hence passing the buck, err, I mean kicking the can, yet again.
DEUS EX MACHINA
With most of the world’s major economies as well as the financial system bankrupt, there is only one solution that can save the world economy. Like in the Greek tragedies, Deus ex Machina is now the only way that the world can avoid a total economic collapse. This would involve God being lowered down onto the world stage and miraculously saving the plot.
http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/english-news/9031-deus-ex-machina
You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.
Rahm Emanuel
The build-up is everything, bitchez...........
I love a good drama. Too bad all we get is this shit.
our illustrious "leaders"........mutiple shades of gray
how can inexorably goin' from 16.3 to 20.0 trillion be construed as "avoiding" the ( media induced buzz term) "fiscal cliff" ? what a scam. some "ceaucescuin' " is in order.
Ya'll remember some years ago Congress appropriated money to hire a PR firm to burnish its public image?
Wonder how that's workin' for 'em these days?
Must be wurkin' pretty gud, they ain't wearing sticky feather suits.
That's the kind of expenditure that needs to be cut NOW!
How about another war in the Middle East? Ths should justify another increase in the debt ceiling.
Your fiscal cliff coincides with a law deadline, the date is January 15, 2013
http://www.dhs.gov/secure-drivers-licenses
Once old law is purged off the books, new law displaces old rule of law. The lack of transparency permits quick amendment’s in retaining new governing control.
Caveat emptor bitchez
My State nullified this piece of shit law years ago........
What happens when the Federal Government nullifies the States laws under a manufactured National Security event. How will your state handle this piece of shit law nullified years ago? I hope you have a Plan B?
I suspect it will be ignored once again. I don't live in Kalifornistan...........
Here's the move.
1. Let Cliff arrive. taxes raised - check
2. Reduce taxes - i.e. bring 'em back down. check - POTUS 1 - GOP 0
3. Can kicked down the Road - Ctrl 'P........
Why does the calendar have a November 31st?
Schwarzer Saturday
As it's the last year of the Mayan calendar they added another day for people to get everything prepared in time.
DavidC
In 2006 the Deficit was 8 Trillion when Hairry Reid started talking about it. Today it's 16 Trillion and he is still talking about it. This is the leadership you've come to expect!
A million sounds a lot. A trillion is just a number...
DavidC
"Make 'em work nights!"
Veruca Salt
The Fed will print.
The government will borrow and spend as usual.
The can will be kicked.
That is all you need to know.
Ask the Greeks for advice.
No mention on todays talking heads Fiscal Cliff discussion:
No mention of kicking the can (the compromise) will mean finally US debt downgrades by the big 3
No mention of the Fed has delayed a visible depression by printing $100B per month
I even heard one reporter say a deal will mean we will finally start reducing our DEBT...not deficit, out debt
they've already agreed to raise the debt limit, but they'll still put on the pantomime....
WTF - these motherfuckers don't work on Mondays????
Locked them (Congress of Baboons) up in one small room without access to restroom until they get it resolved. No Christmas for these morons.
If one ever needed a reason to HATE BOTH parties, here ya go.
Neither wants to make the "hard" choices that are gonna be needed to save the FIAT.
The problem is two fold (IMO).
1. TERM LIMITS.
2. Take away the politicians ability to use the printing press.
3)Fractional reserve banking.
People around the world are still buying our low interest bonds...backed by the Full Faith and Credit of the United States
Only short duration ones,the FedRes is buying the longer term ones.
Ask yourself why ?
Nobody else wants them.
The demand for short term UST's will last only as long as the petro dollar.
The US debt is never going to be repaid.
Compromise is in the works.
Timma wants to eliminate the debt ceiling.
Baner wants austerity.
Bammy will show willingness to work together.
Adding one more zero before the decimal onto the debt ceiling AND, making a FIRM commitment to spending cuts in 2016!
Bammy, cover of Time again!
Not kidding......my prediction.
"Real money on the table" What real money ? I thought the fed just printed it up... Is this a fight about money or control ? Why should they bother to do a deal when doing nothing causes them only 50% of the blame.. which even that can be managed away over the course of the next 4 years through the MSM and before the next election cycle. Money to them and the creation there of is just a tool by this point to be printed into existence to further their goals. I say they do jack squat shit and let the markets fall... they have the tools to fluff the market back up again in due time.
I agree with this. I'd be suprised if we didn't see the selling return this week, or soon thereafter. Very close to perfect backtests in stocks, the dollar, and the Euro. I do wonder, though, if the politicians learned from the Aug 11' debt ceiling meltdown that they should sing kumbayah and hold hands in public and keep the knife fights in private, which would lighten what should be one more downleg for equities.
I would think silver should pullback a little, then grind upward to $37 before it's time to reevaulate.
I've been thinking about these things for a while, and frankly I can't come up with a reason why the below scenario wouldn't be true under current conditions.
1) Spend to the sky, then redefine what the bounds of 'sky' are, and keep on spending
2) Discourage methods to reduce or slow population growth - they need new income streams from taxable bodies. This would also make immigration another perceived route to tax revenue, so relaxed protocols for incoming potential citizens is encouraged, but not expatriation or renouncing citizenship.
3) Encourage methods that increase fertility and social behavior for population growth - cynically, you could make an argument that hormones entering the food chain are part of this, not just a quick profit-center for farmers and meat-processing
4) Encourage social dynamics focused on emotional appeal and ad-hoc reasoning - never with rational logic, but only used to amplify situations and more easily 'steer' discourse on a given topic. It is similar to the mob dynamic where the collective IQ seems to drop sharply.
5) If a person can't be taxed successfully, make sure that they at least enter a program where profits can be extracted - from overbilling and estimation of funding to skim off the top, or privatized prisons where paying 35 cents an hour is standard. (Some of this work is now being put up for bid to private companies, not just government contracts)
6) Encourage surveillance methods with no recourse - lack of transparency on how and why they are used is key here, in addition to no legal protections. A good litmus test is - if you used the same methods and you would go to jail, but a state or government agency wouldn't - you're in an asymmetric surveillance system.
7) Encourage financial tracking and 'tagging' - make sure you know where all the flows are, that the banks are reporting on non-trivial amounts, or even smaller activities as mandated by the surveillance initiative. This of course is not applied to the system doing the tracking.
This is where we are right now. And I don't have any solution to it, other than trying to isolate as best as I can.
Fiscal cliff = artificial crisis
http://tipggita32.wordpress.com/2012/11/25/the-real-news-fiscal-cliff-an...
I am simply shocked that the markets may have been a wee bit optimistic on DC's ability to confront a crisis--it's not like we had the last two years to make a judgment on the prospects. And before a crisis can be addressed, it actually has to be confronted, sized up, acknowledged, etc. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
When does Congress / Obama confiscate my 401K & pension to pay for all this crap? How much time do I have before I should just quit my job & pay the 50% tax & penalty to get it out of the country?
When does Congress / Obama confiscate my 401K & pension to pay for all this crap? How much time do I have before I should just quit my job & pay the 50% tax & penalty to get it out of the country?
Obama has said will demand double the previously expected amount in tax hikes
With this as an opening position he is saying screw you I know this is unacceptable so over the cliff we go. Automatic cuts and higher taxes are comming. People with 401k don't pay anyway, only tax on the open market stockholders.
Alex Hannold might be the only onte able to free climb our fiscal cliff.