This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Art Cashin's Cynical Recollections Of Black Fridays Past And The End Of Washington's Cone Of Silence

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The two day rally, wrapped around Thanksgiving, is hardly a surprise to UBS' Art Cashin. It’s an old pattern that he discussed on CNBC on Tuesday. What was a surprise to him was the magnitude of Friday’s move. "A bit unusual" he notes, adding that "the markets then began to buy into the Black Friday hype that filled TV screens. Mobs of people clutching all manner of electronic devices. That seemed to inspire interest and short covering in the recently depressed tech sector. That allowed the market, led by the techs to close the abbreviated session with a full flourish," but Cashin warns that this new week often starts with a rethink - as he advises a "solid skepticism about early reports... Other years, we learn that Black Friday success just cannibalized other sales. We’ll see what happens this year." Also, with over 400 microphone hunting legislators returning to Washington,
the cone of silence on the fiscal cliff is probably just a memory
.

Via UBS' Art Cashin:

The calendar has lots of market moving possibilities like GDP; Durable Goods and Initial Claims. Additionally, there's a saloonful of Fed speakers set over the week. The market may, in fact, be in the hands of politicians, both here and across the pond. On this side of the pond, over 400 microphone hunting legislators return to Washington so the cone of silence on the fiscal cliff is probably just a memory. Meanwhile, the President seems set to spend the week on the campaign trail, possibly reiterating his pledge to veto any tax cut extension on the top end. Fastening seat belts may be in order.

 

Some Cynical Recollections Of Black Fridays Past – As noted above, the media frenzy on the Black Friday crowds appeared to help the stock market especially the techs. But, over the decades, many traders, including yours truly, have developed a solid skepticism about early reports.

 

Merchants have a keen interest in promoting Black Friday. They hope that reports of huge crowds and success will inspire other consumers to join the Christmas rush in the days that follow. It’s a variation of creating the image of this year's "must have" toy. As the season wears on, however, we often learn that the large crowds were there for the door-buster specials then put the wallet back on the hip. Other years, we learn that Black Friday success just cannibalized other sales. We’ll see what happens this year.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

it was thinnest volume rally for 170 point. all algos went wild and volume went on black friday sale.

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/11/stocks-for-nov-26th-bahkcg-gld-a...

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Repeat after me...there is no inflation...there is no inflation...

"Cost of '12 Days of Christmas' gifts in 2012: $107,300, up 6.1 percent"

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2012/11/cost_of_12_days_of_christmas_g.html

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

To add... good thing I love my dog. Just ordered a new batch of Blue Buffalo Turkey and Potato cans. In February they were $24.99 a case. Paid $30 today after negotiating and coupon clipping BS. That's a 26% annual inflation rate on dog food (lots of natural goods etc) but still!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

To add... good thing I love my dog. Just ordered a new batch of Blue Buffalo Turkey and Potato cans. In February they were $24.99 a case. Paid $30 today after negotiating and coupon clipping BS. That's a 26% annual inflation rate on dog food (lots of natural goods etc) but still!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment autofixer
autofixer's picture

My Thanksgiving turkey was 10% MORE expensive Y.O.Y. from the same store. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"It's the best Black Friday, Eva!"

             - MSM Every year.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:58 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

When Black Friday comes,
I'll stand down by the door.
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor.
When Black Friday comes,
I'll collect everything I'm owed.
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road.
When Black Friday falls you know it's got to be --
Don't let it fall on me!

When Black Friday comes,
I'll fly down to Muswellbrook.
Gonna strike all the big red words
From my little black book.
Gonna do just what I please,
Gonna wear no socks and shoes.
With nothing to do but feed
All the kangaroos.
When Black Friday comes I'll be on that hill
You know I will.

When Black Friday comes
I'm gonna dig myself a hole,
Gonna lay down in it 'til
I satisfy my soul.
Gonna let the world pass by me,
The Archbishop's gonna sanctify me,
And if he don't come across
I'm gonna let it roll.
When Black Friday comes,
I'm gonna stake my claim --
I'll guess I'll change my name.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

Every single year is the same:

1) during Thanksgiving weekend: Black Friday sales are HUGE!

2) a few days later: Black Friday sales weren't quite as good as we originally thought

3) after Christmas: Black Friday sales kind of sucked

You can set your watch by it.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

http://www.tomsrivernjonline.com/2012/11/18/seaside-heights-gives-victim...

 

Probably because the homeowners that just got pounded on by Hurricane Sandy are being given a couple of weeks to clean up their lots because of engineering problems.  So far the insurance companies have been doing what they are good at.  Not paying a penny to anybody that has insurance with them.

 

http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2012/11/guiding_clients_after_the_s...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

sorry wrong video.

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Watching how people behave to save some bucks to buy a new TV offers a glimps of how people will behave when austerity comes.

Enjoy your 2013.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Really goes to show the effect on inflation on the populace where, for familes and those married, that extra 100 or 200 dollars you save means the world to you....where to a hedge fund manager, he wipes his ass with those bills.

Really goes to show how disconnected from the currency the populace is.  They need their fiat like a cokehead needs a bump.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Exactly, if people will riot like this for something they want, imagine what they will do for something they need.

pods

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I'm up 14% in just a few days in Apple, my last purchase of 506.50 paying off.  While everyone was touchdown dancing on Apple's demise, smart money was buying at these levels.  4th quarter is going to be strong.  GOOG was downgraded today, paging Reggie.  Of course ZH not doing any pieces on Apple dominating holiday sales, showing their extremely unhealthy bias against.  LMAO.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

AAPL sucks balls

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

What demise? I was in The apple store yesterday. The place was a mad house. Wall to wall people..That macbook pro w/ retina is one beautiful machine. Its calling my name as we speak.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

And it only costs 50% to 100% more than a comparable PC that has at least ten times as much software available! Can you say brainwashed? Of course you can!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Im not buying it. Not only is is overpriced, But there is no option to upgrade. Everything is soldered in.  It is still a fine machine.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Dude, the chump change they pay you to troll isn't worth the damage to your soul. Get a real job like male prostitute, it's healthier.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

What kind of asshole makes 14percent in days and doesn't sell?  this post gave me the confidence that the idiots are all in and over confident. Got me some 550 puts. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

DavidC

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Good luck with that plan, and fanboi thinking. Get back to us in 6 months with a status report..

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

How about I get back to you now, because I've owned for several years now, this was just my last purchase.

 

I am the number one fanboi of apple because it has made me rich!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  So when anyone calls me fanboi I immediately think, you are calling me a rich mother fucker for owning apple stock for so long.   I am a fanboi, captain of all fanbois, and rich because of it.  

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:41 | Link to Comment bigwhiffa
bigwhiffa's picture

Whatever makes you sleep at night.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My wife and her girlfriends went out shopping at 10:30 on Thanksgiving evening and came back 11 o'clock the following Friday, she said never once did they have to wait in line at any store. According to her it was the worst she's ever saw. My mom and my sisters who live in the Cleveland. area reported the same thing.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Your wife shopped for 12 1/2 hours?

Better increase your fees and order up some more unnecessary tests.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's what she tells me she was doing anyway, but who the hell knows for sure. I was at home with the kids.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

That's the ONLY attitude you can have, and maintain your sanity, when it comes to women. You probably really, REALLY don't want to know what she was actually doing. I have given up on meanigful relationships with women. The only way to win at that game is to not play. I wish I could be gay. At least gay men will go out and get jobs and pull their weight. But, unfortunately, hairy butts just turn me off.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Well, it's also Cleveland........but hey, at least it is not Detroit

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZzgAjjuqZM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

We do Xmas with my in laws on thanksgiving I got a long underware shirt that was too small. On Friday I took it back for a size larger. $0 spent.
I thought that was funny.$200 in my pocket and not a penny spent in the store.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

AAPL trading about 35% dollar weighted volume of the entire NDX over the last three months.

Like it or not, the market without AAPL is like Europe without Germany.

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!