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EURUSD Coiling As Rumor (ECB) And Counter-Rumor (IMF) Dominate

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following the almost total lack of movement on the ECB 'savior' rumors, now we have IMF 'pain' rumors:

  • IMF WANTS EURO ZONE TO CUT GREEK DEBT BY 20 PCT OF GDP UP FRONT, COMMIT TO
    FURTHER REDUCTION LATER - Source
  • *IMF MAY WANT 40B EURO CUT IN GREEK DEBT, MORE LATER: REUTERS

EURUSD is just coiling and coiling here - but of the two rumors, t's EUR40bn write-down makes the most sense in a rational world of trying to help Greece (and therefore must be discounted as 100% not what will happen). We can only imagine that the EU tactic is now to throw each strawman to the rumor-mill to see what reaction is generated by the market - so far - #FAIL.

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:51 | 3011989 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh BOY is this GREAT!!

Flounder

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:56 | 3012014 ACP
ACP's picture

I think the reponse to this from BOTH the bankers and the Greeks was:

BWAHAHAAAHAAAHHAHHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAHHAHAHAHHAH!!!!!!

BWHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHHAHAHAHHHAHHAHAHHA!!!!!! Oh-uh, huh-huh...heh.

BWHAHAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHHAHAHAHHAHAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:54 | 3012003 youngman
youngman's picture

This is something to watch....amazing in fact....to me Greece is winning this game...they just sit there...really they do nothing...no one has lost a job or a pension has not been cut....and they keep getting money....truly amazing

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:01 | 3012021 walküre
walküre's picture

Ask the Greeks. They would disagree with your point. Their suffering is real enough and should scare anyone who still thinks their public service sector jobs, pensions or other entitlements are safe! Several municipalities across the US are implementing Greek style austerity.

We've only just begun ....

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:39 | 3012129 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

No shit.

The $40bn haircuts will take a chunk out of the pension funds.

You don't actually think the banks will take a haircut, now do you?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:59 | 3012025 flacon
flacon's picture

Sometime soon, most likely in 2013, the oceans will turn to lemonade as promised. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:09 | 3012046 asteroids
asteroids's picture

This is a game of musical chairs and the music is about to stop. When it does, the guy without the chair will pick up the tab for Greece. I was talking to a friend in Greece last week. 2/3's of the population is hurting. The other 1/3 is getting by but very worried. The political elites live in some kind of fairy world.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:37 | 3012118 flacon
flacon's picture

The Greek elites have been googling the least painful way to commit suicide. They know that when this thing blows up they won't make it out alive. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:21 | 3012254 Looney
Looney's picture

Becky? Is that you?

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:39 | 3016348 Looney
Looney's picture

I think I know who gave me the first Bump-Up, but what IS laughingly-disturbing, Asteroids, is that someone else ALSO clicked on the Up arrow. (this is both - hilarious AND scary! ;-)  )

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 08:40 | 3019903 igrego
igrego's picture

What movie u live in and how much did it cost? You should enroll to some form of education and start Micro Macro 101 instead of reading 0hedge

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:55 | 3012004 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The thing about a spring is that if you coil it too tight it snaps.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:01 | 3012027 flacon
flacon's picture

It's called a breakout and it looks like this:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkiz1uWCF0Y

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:56 | 3012010 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The tension builds. Don't turn that channel.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:56 | 3012015 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

Anyone notice the one rumor that has not come out is they will give up and not send Greece any more money?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:01 | 3012030 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Coiling. Is that something like when you've had your head spin so many times in one direction your brains explode?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:21 | 3012079 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

Modified Valsalva maneuver, maybe?

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:33 | 3012109 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Extremely modified. Sort of like in an old Bugs Bunny cartoon or something that might happen to Wild E Coyote after an ACME product malfunctions.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:02 | 3012033 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Get real long...Cuz it doens't matter what they do - only what they SAY...And I guarantee that nothing will be said to kill an upward move. How do I know? ...$16.00 in Appl, 3.00 in Amzn, Q's up .05 - That's the banks who ALREADY know which way this thing turns.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:05 | 3012038 Conman
Conman's picture

I think i heard line of reasoning before, but aapl was around 700, dow around 13600.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:53 | 3012337 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

I agree. EUR is coling for a massive jump against dollar

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:23 | 3012085 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

A point of logistics . . . Germany has already said any sort of haircut on bonds owned by the EU is illegal.  Not just undesirable.  Illegal.  The EU courts would probably say no.  The German courts would certainly say no.

So the IMF says no without an EU haircut, and there can be no haircut.

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:26 | 3012093 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

A €40bn write-down would just put a dent into the problem. With Greek debt projected to be over €300bn by 2022 and GDP to be only €254bn under the most optimistic of assumptions, the country will need at least a €100 to get to a real sustainable debt.

I do not see this happening.

 

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/11/24/sustainable-greek-debt/

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/part-2-sustainable-greek-debt/

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:48 | 3012111 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

 

A figure that is hard to believe but true

The number of Irish vehicles regs. under current licence increased in dec31 2011 relative to dec 31 2010 !

Although motor cycles ,goods vehicles and public service vehicles declined with working vehicles such as tractors & dumpsters more or less static. (slight increase)

Private cars Y2010 : 1,872,715
Private cars Y2011 : 1,887,810

However a dramatic aging of the fleet is seen.
Y2010
Private cars 4 years old and older : 75%
Private cars 6 years old & older : 56 %

Y2011
Private cars 4 years old and older : 79 %
Private cars 6 year old and older :60 %

If we look at Y2007
Private cars 4 years and older : 65 %
Private cars 6 years and older : 50 %

http://www.transport.ie/upload/general/13673-BULLETIN_OF_VEHICLE__DRIVER_STATISTICS_2011-0.PDF

Ireland is becoming a northerly Morocco
A land full of old Mercs.

The aging of goods vehicles is far more dramatic

Y2007
Vehicles 4 years old and over : 57 %
6 years old and over : 40 %

Y2010
Vehicles 4 years old and over : 73.4 %
Vehicles 6 years old and over : 50.5 %

Y2011
Vehicles 4 years old and over : 82.3%
6 years old and over : 57.7 %

If a banking fiefdom ever needed a devaluation against other banking fiefdoms so as to direct money energy into productive work (building tram lines ?) it is Ireland.

Also diesel (all vehicles) regs have now gone past the 1 million mark for the first time.
1,022,729 or 42.17%

Y2010
946,912 or 39.19 %

Y2007
821,212 or 33.64 %

 

 

If devaluation is not a option the best capital control for Ireland is to ban the importation of private cars unless you are a GP , taxi driver etc who does something useful with his private car.

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:34 | 3012114 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

What did they increase the debt by via loans? Now a 20% haircut is a reduction. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:00 | 3012200 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Idiots.

Wealth will inevitably be destroyed in this process - this is just a contest to determine how much of the pain will be felt in your portfolio, and how much in your wallet.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:02 | 3012536 Jethro
Jethro's picture

Three cheers for critically dampened functions!

Huzzah!

Huzzah!

Huzzah!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:13 | 3012551 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Finally!

 

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