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Greece Is Saved, Again, As Eurozone And IMF Reach Deal On Greek Debt/GDP of 124% By 2020

Tyler Durden's picture


No 4:00 AM morning session this time, as the general revulsion to even pretending to work on behalf of a totally destroyed country is tangible:


Phew - great, Greece is fixed or something. The only problem, of course, as we explained earlier, is that Greece has to magically grow its GDP by EUR 50 billion from EUR 184 billion to EUR235 billion by 2020 for this 124% debt/GDP to be hit (and another EUR 20 billion in the next two years). No, really.

Behold, Europe's magic stick, which puts every "hockey stick" ever conceived to shame.

And this is how previous IMF projections of Greek economic results have fared:


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Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:15 | 3012555 InfinityZero
InfinityZero's picture

Cui Bono ?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:24 | 3012597 lineskis
lineskis's picture

"Saved" with Debt/GDP of 124% by 2020 ?!?

Saved by being burried alive... Brilliant!


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:34 | 3012643 Looney
Looney's picture

One thing is missing in the 2-nd chart after the 2 Oops's - O-o-opa!!!

I think, it is time for Greece to declare war against China and, ten minutes later, sign an unconditional surrender.

It will be easier and faster for Greeks to learn Chinese than to change the direction of their GDP.

Oops! Oops! O-o-opa!


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012653 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Novel thinking. Good show!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:52 | 3012709 CH1
CH1's picture

For how long can Wile E. Coyote hang over the canyon?

The wait is sickening.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:54 | 3012726 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I like how no one ever publicly mentions how embarrassing a 124% debt/gdp ratio even is. Is there no more shame?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012648 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Greece raped and sodomized again.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:54 | 3012725 Looney
Looney's picture

Well... They (the ordinary Greeks) haven't done anything to change things via either Elections or Pitchforks. So, they must be enjoying things ju-u-ust the way they are. I guess?  ;-)

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:53 | 3012716 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

this is a realistic plan, and all important milestones will be executed well ahead of schedule, just like all the previous times.

and in the event this plan doesn't work out exactly as planned (hearsay!), this could in no way have been foreseen, and even so, no establishment economist will be fired as a result.

i should have become an establishment economist. even when you're completely, smashingly wrong, you can still rely on not getting sacked. ever. or admit any kind of error.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:29 | 3012618 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

OOOPS IN 2020 at -20

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:46 | 3012664 Looney
Looney's picture

.  Cui Bono?

Miso Soup!  ;-)

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:16 | 3012561 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Gold Flash crash? Holy crap!!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:21 | 3012584 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

whoa, had to open a kitco tab to see - well worth it. Wish I could crash prices like that before I go shopping...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:26 | 3012605 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

and the fiscal cliff will miraculously dissolve at the opportune moment  etc etc

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:55 | 3012892 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Good ole KITCO and another chart malfunction. 

That site really sucks sometimes.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:22 | 3012589 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

where is the flash crash?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:27 | 3012607 fuu
fuu's picture

Data error? Shows up in silver as well.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012649 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Clearly a Marianas Trench pattern is forming in the technicals.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:49 | 3012691 XitSam
XitSam's picture

My Inverted Manta Ray pattern swamps your Marianas Trench pattern.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:36 | 3012655 youngman
youngman's picture

Strange ..very strange....but they bounced right back up....must be some new Chinese servers getting warmed up...testing their potential..

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:46 | 3012678 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

yeah...gotta like how they always wait until all markets are closed so there are no distractions for the algos and insiders

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:27 | 3012609 FoeHammer
FoeHammer's picture

I'll surely trade them less Federal Reserve Notes for the same oz of gold!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:26 | 3012570 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Greece has to magically grow its GDP by EUR 50 billion from EUR 184 billion to EUR235 billion by 2020

Nothing magical about it.  Nominally, this is certainly possible, as Hyper Mario can just inflate the debt away with his Euro printing press.  EUR 50 billion may be the price of a gyros sandwich by then.

Of course, in real terms, it will never happen.


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:28 | 3012611 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Even nominal that's 4% per year, averaged.

The US can't even manage 2%.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:41 | 3012624 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture





Nominal GDP Growth vs. Real GDP Growth
GDP, or Gross Domestic Product is the value of all the goods and services produced in a country. The Nominal Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all the goods and services produced expressed in current prices. On the other hand, Real Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all the goods and services produced expressed in the prices of some base year. An example:
Suppose in the year 2000, the economy of a country produced $100 billion worth of goods and services based on year 2000 prices. Since we're using 2000 as a basis year, the nominal and real GDP are the same. In the year 2001, the economy produced $110B worth of goods and services based on year 2001 prices. Those same goods and services are instead valued at $105B if year 2000 prices are used.


Year 2000 Nominal GDP = $100B, Real GDP = $100B
Year 2001 Nominal GDP = $110B, Real GDP = $105B
Nominal GDP Growth Rate = 10%
Real GDP Growth Rate = 5%

Once again, if inflation is positive, then the Nominal GDP and Nominal GDP Growth Rate will be less than their nominal counterparts. The difference between Nominal GDP and Real GDP is used to measure inflation in a statistic called The GDP Deflator.



Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:24 | 3013111 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:48 | 3012686 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Yes, but the Greeks have many more government planners and chartists!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:19 | 3012574 magpie
magpie's picture


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012642 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

In centrally planned economies, central bankers "short" you!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:41 | 3012666 magpie
magpie's picture

At least there is no HFT intervention. And it can't be halted.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:37 | 3012657 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:43 | 3012850 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

juist sitting here cracking walnuts, drinking a beer and chuckling at your avatar

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:20 | 3012575 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Gold crash? Eh? Where?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:24 | 3012599 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Looks like it visited 1717 or so for a second then back up.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:28 | 3012610 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Not seeing it anywhere else. Kitco on the fritz again maybe.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:19 | 3012576 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

bullish svxy

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:22 | 3012580 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..As Eurozone And IMF Reach Deal On Greek Debt/GDP of 124% By 2020."

...and pigs might fly by 2020 too.

Hell if we're going to live in LaLa Land let's go the whole hog

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:29 | 3012617 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

"...and pigs might fly by 2020 too."

Pigs already do fly. Have you flown recently?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:37 | 3012656 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Also, if the A380 is not a "pig," nothing is.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:21 | 3012581 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

See how easy that was? They kicked that shit right to 2020. Next up, fiscal Cliff. The US will not be outdone. I say we kick that shit to 2030 at least.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:23 | 3012593 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

That's about when the spending reductions kick in.  Of course tax increases, well those will kick in next year.....of course.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:31 | 3012628 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Falling off the cliff will be painless. The Ben Bernank will cushion the fall with a nice big fluffy bed of fresh cash.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:38 | 3012659 youngman
youngman's picture

I can hear the politicians now..." we have cut spending ten trilllion by 2060...."

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:21 | 3012585 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture


...doesn't sound like anyone asked, umm, Greece(!) about this.  Will it go along or continue to ignore 70% of "planned" austerity?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:22 | 3012587 Mr Fix You Up Good
Mr Fix You Up Good's picture

Live your myth ON Greece. Cant they add?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:26 | 3012604 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

Greece will default, but this event will be based on politics, which are impossible to predict. How long can the north prop before there is voter backlash?


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:26 | 3012606 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Come on! Do you ever fix your house just once? Of course not. It's a continuous program of maintenance. That's all that's going on here with Greece, the IMF and EU. Just maintenance. And perhaps a little ledgersheet renovation thrown in to boot. Nothing to worry about at all, really.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:30 | 3012621 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

You use fix as in repair. I think fix here is more like a drug addict. They are engaged in a continuous program of "fixing" their house alright.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:33 | 3012637 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

I think the "fix" should really be used as in the "fix is in." And guess who's on the loser's side?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:34 | 3012644 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

And since you went there, really, they are in quite a fix, aren't they?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:27 | 3012608 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

124%? Damn. I think the highest the US was 130%, and that was during WWII.



Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:28 | 3012612 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Tyler, do I need your permission to use that second graph as a wallpaper on my laptop?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:51 | 3012676 hedgeless_horseman
Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:28 | 3012613 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

What is the Troika gonna do, force everyone to eat yogurt?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:30 | 3012620 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Greece is dead, long live Greece.


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:30 | 3012623 HD
HD's picture

I'd replace Ooops with %$#@&! but I'm not a chartist...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:31 | 3012627 jubber
jubber's picture

Euro ramping on this charade

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:34 | 3012639 magpie
magpie's picture

It ramped 30 pips alone this morning, so it's still nothing. Seems there is nobody to sell to.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:32 | 3012631 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Just in case no one has noticed, this upcoming 40 billion Euro tranche is not going to cover these losses to 2020.  There will have to be more.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:38 | 3012660 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Sssst, be quiet.

You are waking up the European taxpayers.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:33 | 3012636 schadenfreude
schadenfreude's picture

S&P 1450 bitches

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:34 | 3012638 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Another last minute Greek bailout non-event.  Color me shocked.

If it's possible for me to to be more jaded about this I can't imagine how.

Few months back somebody posted something along the lines of "Guys, they control the currency and can manipulate and change anything.  They can keep this shit going for years."  Whoever that was was absolutely right.

The gift that keeps on giving.  Like Herpes.  See you again in 6 months, Greece.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:34 | 3012640 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Get ready for the futures ES fullretard explode o rama.

Fucking out of control.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012641 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

A market rally tomorrow as EUR/USD rallies to above 1.30.

All is well with world now. All things are possible with self-deception.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:44 | 3012671 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

As of 5 mins ago, up 7 pips.  Not earth shattering.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012646 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

An as the munchkins celebrated the death of the wicked witch of the West, the wicked witch of the East appeared to end whatever optimism they had gained. Or in this case, the witch never really dies but slides under the house and returns in a different form.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012647 darteaus
darteaus's picture

WOW - that was a close one this time!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | 3012651 Hangfire
Hangfire's picture

What the hell just happened to gold?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:46 | 3012679 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture


Jon Nadler is having a laugh

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:36 | 3012654 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Just keep sending more EU currency, I'm sure it will work one day!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:42 | 3012668 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

"grow its GDP by EUR 50 billion from EUR 184 billion to EUR235 billion by 2020" - can I have what they are smoking, it's extremely strong stuff ?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:44 | 3012675 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

50 billion over 7 yrs out of 235B is about 4%/yr, real.


The US can't even manage 2%.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:46 | 3012680 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Were these forecasters working for Romney too?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:52 | 3012683 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

The squeezing of the lemons, in this case the Greek people, has just begun.


I replaced "Greek GDP" by " Facebook revenue" in the charts.

Well if Greece can do it why not Facebook ?




Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:48 | 3012684 Biflation
Biflation's picture

Where did that flash crash go? Damnit.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:52 | 3012708 darteaus
darteaus's picture

These aren't the charts you're looking for.

Move along.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:51 | 3012702 Cangoroo
Cangoroo's picture

Oh, my god, a sustainable solution was found, based on hope, more hope and even wishful thinking. I think the estimates are far too conservative, I bet annual GDP growth will be around 50 percent 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:54 | 3012719 ES-Sniper
ES-Sniper's picture


I can't wait to see Pisani's reaction tommorrow.... and only see, I have to turn off the sound as soon as he utters his hourly "look, the bottom line is.... I am a totally biased permabull CNBC cheerleader. 





Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:56 | 3012732 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

What a relief, for a second I feared that we would have breached the symbolic but critical 125.1% of debt to GDP by April 1st 2020. 124%  sounds like a much better number to forecast in 8 years from now, it is an elegant number, it follows the nice

2^n with n an integer from 0 to infinity. It is easy to remember elegant, it is just perfect. If it does not work, we can kick the can to 2030 following the same formula at 1248%.




Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:01 | 3012742 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

The best i can say is that if we bailout Greece we are not stuck with all those Spiderman towels.

Wait until we have to bailout Spain, we will be up to our ears in those.



Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:12 | 3012765 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

20B is a lot of prostitution.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:13 | 3012766 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Ring the bell agiain. Greece is saved!!!!

Greeks go out and spend like drunken sailors again. The Troika has your back.

LOL, they will never let you fail Greece. Just blow their money and you will get more, Comical.

Your ECB sugar daddy is a fool. Take him to the cleaners.



Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:56 | 3012896 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Bankers are truly artists. FInancial wizardry is an artform. Here we have a 7year projection which as time drags on will be claimed to be a hockey stick save, not as gradual slope of increasing GDP. Meanwhile the faith will be kept. Thepoliticians will have some where to hide as they shovel increasing fiat in the gaping maws of cash burn and destruction. Not until year six when the graph must go vertical for Greece's GDP to meet projections will the fraud be made clear, but by then, the current group of pols/bankers will on to their next meal, the taxpayers of the member states of the EU will be saddled w ever-more debt, and Greece will be a giant slum/welfare state with anything of value long since ransacked.

Oh, and did I mention the banks have long since pawned their worthless Greek paper onto the ECB at face-value.

You gotta love a masterpiece.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:57 | 3012903 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

This is clerarly an "Oh, thank God" moment.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:07 | 3012928 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Well, I think the Oops projection is Graph of the Year.

For this year and next.

Guess they think we're dumb.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:46 | 3013003 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The beauty of nominal GDP and hyperinflation. The German people have been conned once again by the elite Europeans.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:42 | 3013285 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Greece in a Troika induced coma status.

The upcoming Europe's status?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:20 | 3013354 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Farcical to predict a growth rate for Greece of 5% or more when all western countries are struggling to get 2% and many less. With the Troika / IMF projections I look forward to a future headline the politicians have promised and goes something like this ...

"In the global economy we have a new shining spark on how to run a economy with 5% growth".

Now I am off to buy a mickey mouse comic to search for this headline.

What is the projected future debt with 2% growth and I am being very optimistic. THAT IS THE REALITY.

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