This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: Iran Positioned to Threaten Oil Lanes
Submitted by Daniel J. Graeber of OilPrice.com,
In mid-December, the U.S. military will have only one aircraft carrier positioned in the Persian Gulf region for the first time in two years. At the same time, the Iranian navy said it was kicking off a 10-day exercise in the region. Oil prices spiked when Iran early this year threatened to close oil-shipping lanes in the region. If talks scheduled for December between Tehran and the IAEA turn sour, there exists for Iran the potential to exploit the security vacuum in the region and use its defensive position for geopolitical gain.
The U.S. Navy announced that, for about two months, there will be only one aircraft carrier based in the Middle East region because of unexpected repair work needed on USS Nimitz. A Navy commander said it was the "right thing to do" to leave the military one carrier short in the region, a first since December 2010. At the same time, the Iranian navy announced plans to conduct a 10-day drill to display what Tehran said was a way for the Islamic republic to "display its might and deterrence power."
In January, oil prices were moving fast beyond the $100 per barrel mark in part because of tensions with Iran, which had threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in response to increased sanctions pressure. The U.S. Energy Department describes the strait as the "world's most important oil checkpoint." Last year, about 17 million barrels oil per day traveled through the area, which represented about 35 percent of the world's maritime oil shipments. Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines in place to compensate for any closure, though each of those has their limitations.
Traders in January said tensions in the region would certainly lead to an increase in oil prices. While much of Iran's oil heads to Asian economies, the oil market is global, meaning U.S. economic power is linked critically to U.S. defensive power in the Middle East. U.S. Energy Department analysts said any economic uncertainty in the oil markets would have a ripple effect on the global economy.
Iran and delegates from the International Atomic Energy Agency are set to resume negotiations Dec. 13. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano has said there's "lots" of activity at the Parchin military complex near Tehran. Western diplomats have said they suspect Iran has taken steps to shield what could be illicit nuclear activity at the site. Tehran has said it was opposed to weapons of mass destruction, though Western diplomats have already said they expect few breakthroughs during next month's talks.
Iran could take advantage of the U.S. Navy's brief drawdown in the region to rattle its sabers in the gulf should the IAEA issue a damning nuclear assessment following December talks. With Iran's economy in decline, however, any decision to shut down the Strait of Hormuz could work against, not for, Tehran's favor. Nevertheless, the mere threat of a closure in January was in part responsible for a one-day 4.25 price increase for oil. Iran's naval drills are scheduled to get under way about a week after the IAEA talks. Without a major U.S. defensive bulwark, the Iranians may have the deck stacked in their favor.
»
- 13167 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Off Topic (sorry, boyZ and girlZ)…
This whole “Fiscal Cliff” can be fixed in a jiffy. Really!
The problem with the Cliff is not the debt, or taxes, or cuts to defense or entitlements. The problem is in the NAME!
So, here’s my solution – just rename the damn thing from the scary-sounding “Fiscal Cliff” to something else like “Pink Banana”, “Ultra-Super-Uber-iSavings”, “Gaga-Bieber-Kardashian-Hope’n-Change”, or “Xiang-Ding-Dong-Free”…
Any other gewd names? ;-)
Looney
The Fiscal Shalom Cliff, see; immediately sounds nicer.
Forget all this crazy oil stuff. I heard that Ahmadinejad likes to kick puppies. What are we waiting for? Bomb them ASAP!
Obama is thinking who needs to blame the Iranians for an oil spike which "caused" the already inevitable recession? The extremist, partisan Republicans are right here to take the blame for forcing the US off the "fiscal cliff".
No war in the ME before the midterms.
Tell Honey Bunny to chill.
no comment
The US is facing some extremely difficult challenges with a lightweight President at the helm. Hopefully some non-neocon adults are working matters behind the scenes.
It seems that de-escalation may be beneficial as long as it is not used to entice Iran into doing something stupid.
Iran well knows that it can cause extreme problems for the US by jacking-up oil prices and, to date, the US has played right into their hands. When you've got a collapsing fiat money system run by maniacal central bankers the last thing you need is an oil price spike caused by a geopolitical crisis.
Central bankers and the banking syndicates love these crises as it gives them cover for their own acts of destabilization (equating to treason) - hopefully someone on the inside not beholden to the criminal banking syndicates has figured this out and is toning things down.
December!??
I want my Persian Armageddon NOW!
whatever happened to...."4 aircraft carriers...Next full moon...right after the election" and all THAT shit! Remember??
when the carrier's provide more distance they prepare for war!
Bomb them ASPCA!
January 1, 2013 = Shut the fuck up already with the brainwashing on this shit MSM.
Yea, the Super Commettee.
+1 Looney
I hope Iran already has nukes.
Why do you hope that?
We no boom with countries that have boom boom!
Who's the BOOM king?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT5AQIlmM0I
It will cost you a lot less.
So better stop harasssing Iran by entering its airspace.
Yeh sure. A swarm of Iranian PT jon boats are headed towards the US fleet now. Fortunately the congress has just introduced a 1 Trillion dollar Fleet enhancement to combat the threat.
Just look out for that Filipino Monkey. He's caused trouble before.
I have always wondered if it was the same person
Why was i voted down ? Anyway, it gives me the opportunity to plausibly deny and disown any future revolution, counter-revolution, military coup, armed uprising and demonstration and secessionistic activities inside and outside the European Union in its present borders. Signed, The Magpie.
Never mind the down votes, here's the Sex Pistols:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8J20yMoNWZo
so Americas $1 Trillion fleet should be able to eradicate Somali pirates pretty quickly too
Good Luck with that US Navy
Viet Kong & Taliban Utd 2 - 0 US Military
You should also mention that the US Navy, after investing billion upon billions upon billions of dollars which are simply printed out of thin air
DID
sink a 500$ barge which is to be believed to have been used by Somali pirates.
sidenote: The US navy did compensate for the loss of the boat an repaid them 5 million dollars for the barge...
what's harder to hit with a sunburn missile? a big fat carrier or a swarm of little fast-boats. i am thinking the next war will expose carriers as the dinosaurs they are like WWII did with battleships.
The Iranian attack on a carrier group will "expose carriers for what they are": trip wires.
After Iran trips the wire, Iran will be bombed into rubble and then the rubble piles will be bombed.
maybe, but the US naval superiority will be ridiculed all over the world as soon as the first carrier is Pearl Harbored.
That is a small price to pay for a World War.
FDR allowed Pearl Harbor to be attacked so that he and his masters could make money off of WWII.
The current president will be just as willing to help.
It's the stealth carriers they have to worry about. Cloak off,
Do you have a pic of a stealth carrier? With or without the cloak.
trolling for iranians, using embargos as bait
We don't need to invade Iran, we can just bawl them over with the ole American charm! Broadcast a few epsiodes of dancing with the stars and a couple of fotball games, send them some buckets of fried chicken and they'll let us have everything we need!
Anyone in America got a beef with the people of Iran?
Thought Not.
The deranged sickos behind Govt play power games, representing nobody in society but their tiny diseased minds.
Lock them down and lock them up...
Stop Paying Tax ...don't fund these f'n sociopaths
But Alex Jones says Iran threatened to wipe israel off the map and he's not an israeli agent or anything :http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rJXOUXnD6Io
It is my opinion that that Israeli agent meme is bullshit. Alex is simply blinded by his faith.
That is my major qualm that I have with like minded thinking individuals in regards to government, economy, freedom, etc. A vast proportion are jesus (I had to tell my tablet not to capitalize the name) freaks.
The first thing I ever stole was a Carl Sagan book from a bed and breakfast that I stayed at as a child. After reading cosmos, I find the bible to be akin to Shel Silverstein. Full of many good lessons, but not meant to be taken literal.
Down votes may now commence.
The most effective agents are always the ones who don't know they're agents. Jesus was just another false-flag Israeli provocateur sent back from the future like in The Terminator.
Iran says they want to wipe Zionism off the map.
Neo-fascist neocons no like.
Iran is a "country." A country doesn't "say" anything.
I've heard that reported a lot in the press, though, so I guess we should conclude that sufficient *repetition* makes something true. What people believe is far more important politically than anything that's real or true.
Alex is simply blinded by his faith.
Sure, that must be it.
Is it possible to NOT be blinded by faith, faith being the holding of beliefs in the absence of (or even contrary to) physical or demonstrable evidence? I have personally always considered "faith" to be synonymous with "insanity".
Akak,
Those are not human beliefs. Please contact Paul Krugman, he is our planets authority when it comes to aliens
Banned from Prisonplanet forums after 7 years for saying infowars is being infiltrated
Posted by James ?????? on November 26, 2012
"banned because the name ”Molly Maroney” wasn’t suppose to be known, it was a fluke that she replied to a person inquiring about a question to infowars. And she replied, after she replied. The person looked her up and bam. Came out as an intern of Stratfor, an Israeli data mining front. It was created in 1996 in AUSTIN, same time Jones came on the air. I’ve been a Jones support for MANY years, you can google my screen name NASTYNORTHNYC and prisonplanet forums. I have no reason to cause trouble, it was a simple question of why Stratfor and Infowars popup in the same sentence"
http://12160.info/profiles/blogs/banned-from-prisonplanet-forums-after-7-years-for-saying-infowars
Iran aside for one second, and as to your "Stop paying tax" suggestion. What do taxes collected actually have to do with what government spends each and every day? 16 trillion straight out of their rectal reserve.
They print that FRN TP by the ton, no taxpayer needed.
They are going to go 14th Amendment bounty-time on you insurrectionists if you cause enough trouble for them to notice.
"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."
Cracks me up they could even pay a juicy, unquestionable pension (on top of the bounty) for bringing "law-breakers" to "justice".
Those dastardly Iranians! They be terrorists, they be. /sarc
We have only one, one lone juicy aircraft carrier which is a sitting duck. should any hostile forces decide to attack now would be the perfect opportunity. Repeat, the usa and coalition forces are nearly defenseless and we hope that by broadcasting this message to unfriendly regions that no-one would try any funny business. Longitude --- --- Latitude --- ---. These surface vessels are most vulnerable when assaulted by type XFT weapons which we hope no-one will use...
The American sheeple will be bloodthirsty for war once Israel - oops I mean Iran torpedoes that fat sucker...
inadvertent double post caused by thinking about the woman in the Liquid Plumber ad.
double impact
Guest Post: USA Positioned to Threaten World
Right around that time of year for someone to spike the oil prices again.
Oil traders are looking for some bonus money. Iran would like higher oil prices as well.
Iranians, like most of the world's inhabitants, are ruled by a few "elites." However, in Iran's case, the ruling class head figures are absolutely out of their minds crazy. Religious fanaticism and nuclear weapons do not mix. The end game will be military conflict with heavy loss of life - mostly Iranians but not the sociopaths calling the shots in Tehran.
Religious fanaticism and nuclear weapons do not mix.????
Have you looked at Israel recently? If not, I hope you are sitting down when you do.
I'm guessing you can't have, based on your comment.
What evidence do you have that the "sociopaths" have nuclear weapons? If any, you really should share it with the 16 (and what sort of fucked up country needs 16?) US intelligence agencies who find no evidence that they do.
I think this guy supplied the evidence long ago.
Mordechai VanunuPaid (paying) a huge personal price.
Has to be one of the bravest men on the planet.
Directly approaching your comment, it's easy not finding evidence.
If I'm looking into the number of pesky rodents around, and I want the numbers to come in on the low side, I'd just conduct my 'search' in the nearest cat's home.
Apologies - just realized you were replying to Ibird, not me.
Simple.
"Religious fanaticism and nuclear weapons do not mix."
Should all messianic religions be screened from nuclear weapons command?
Can we just reduce the number of nukes to be enough to destroy the planet ONCE.
Anything else seems like a waste.
Could this be a false flag in reverse?
Making it seem as the area is bare?
Rememeber, 3 ways to deal with debt;
1/ Pay it off. Ain't a hope in hell!
2/ Default. Never gonna happen.
3/ Take the nation to war.
'Could this be a false flag in reverse?'
huh?
It's a double-bluff. Like a reverse-lateral movement against your OWN most obvious strategy to dupe the other guys into what you KNOW they most want to do.
It's just playin' it cagey, see?
I think I understand, you mean kinda like Austria mobilizing to threaten Serbia?
Remember when we tried getting Saddam to respond and take the first shot? Just didn't work.
"false flag in reverse"
Kind of like how ambassador Glaspie was told to sucker Saddam into invading Kuwait?
Will it never end? Ever?
Certainly not in our lifetime - unless we destroy everything - that should stop it.
Do you really want it to? While most people get their kicks from the shit that the TV mindfucks them with, we have the ultimate comedy to witness. Life.
I was listening to a show my girlfriend was watching the other night, and found myself predicting what was going to happen next. Us ZH'ers can't do that. Every day some other bat shit crazy event happens that leaves us shaking our heads.
Take solace in that.
Maybe...look, Obama won't go down for Bibi. He pushed Bibi into a ceasefire that practically guarantees Hamas more and bigger rockets. I don't have a problem with that, quite the contrary, just stating facts.
But now he's got to give a little something back. US carriers are a two-edged sword. Try it on for size, so, two carriers is a deterrent, not just to Iran, but to Israel. Why would Israel have to attack Iran, when the US (two carriers) is so well positioned to do it better? But one carrier is just a symbol. There's no strike depth there. One carrier creates a vacuum, to be filled by Israel, or by Iran, or both, with predictable results.
Remember, there is a big war scheduled between the Jews and the Muslims. it's been on the schedule since Albert Pike put it there 120 years ago. Who do you think Obama works for? The Jews? Not...exactly... Luciferian square and compass f**ks? That's closer to the target.
You think nothing's going to happen after 12-21-12? Don't bet on it.
Yeah, I don't have a problem with Hamas having bigger and better rockets, let the scumbags hiding out in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem (and Israel's northern cities like Joppa) know fear the way innocent Palestinian children know it. The zionists have become the very genocidal maniacs they fled long ago.
If we all just promise to act really terrified of Iran's aggression, can't we spike the oil price WITHOUT anyone having to bomb anyone?
article pure MSM bull shift
Yeah, and tell us also how North Korea, which is in fact ruled by a certifiable sociopath and hereditary line of madmen, is about to rain nuclear missiles down on Alaska, just because they are (hypothetically) able to do so.
Funny how there is nearly no international furor over North Korea, which DOES have nuclear weapons capability, despite it being the very showcase of totalitarian repression and insanity. Maybe that very nuclear capability is the reason that the Western powers-that-be are afraid to kick that particular sleeping dog?
The US encourages countries to want nukes.
They tend to leave such countries alone.
Another example of the level of ignorance and short-sightedness in US foreign policy
The US Government does'nt leave nuclear states alone -- it funds them with borrowed money and taxes (a.k.a. slavery) money.
Take a paper spherical globe of the Earth. Turn it to position Vanuatu facing directly toward the floor. Crush the globe flat on a table. Begin apocalyptic prophesies for the top 1/2 of the globe. Just forget about the part you can't see.
It'll work out fine.
North Korean nukes are only a threat to the 34,000 American Troops stationed in South Korea and are not a threat to Israel.
Stop the madness by cutting the head off the dog. Sign the petition.
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/united-states-government-recog...
The U S Navy doesn't allow open waters to be blockaded. This is just typical ranting by the Iranians, nothing will come of it. I do hope it drives oil prices up though, I'm long UCO.
When did the US Navy start protecting the approach to Gaza?
Before, during, and after the USS Liberty was sieved killing 34 United States Navy sailors in international waters off Gaza!
Before and after perhaps but not during:
Read a little about this. My questions are was IFF used, any other method of I.D.? When youre creeping around in a war zone, you better be careful and let your friends know where you are.
One should also be careful to know who one's friends truly are. The attack on Liberty was deliberate and was intended to kill her entire crew.
DECLARATION OF WARD BOSTON, JR.,CAPTAIN, JAGC, USN (RET.)
IN JUNE OF 1967, WHILE SERVING AS A CAPTAIN IN THE JUDGE ADVOCATE GENERAL CORPS, DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY, I WAS ASSIGNED AS SENIOR LEGAL COUNSEL FOR THE NAVY’S COURT OF INQUIRY INTO THE BRUTAL ATTACK ON USS LIBERTY, WHICH HAD OCCURRED ON JUNE 8TH.
THE LATE ADMIRAL ISAAC C. KIDD, PRESIDENT OF THE COURT, AND I WERE GIVEN ONLY ONE WEEK TO GATHER EVIDENCE FOR THE NAVY’S OFFICIAL INVESTIGATION INTO THE ATTACK, DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE BOTH HAD ESTIMATED THAT A PROPER COURT OF INQUIRY INTO AN ATTACK OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD TAKE AT LEAST SIX MONTHS TO CONDUCT.
THE EVIDENCE WAS CLEAR. BOTH ADMIRAL KIDD AND I BELIEVED WITH CERTAINTY THAT THIS ATTACK, WHICH KILLED 34 AMERICAN SAILORS AND INJURED 172 OTHERS, WAS A DELIBERATE EFFORT TO SINK AN AMERICAN SHIP AND MURDER ITS ENTIRE CREW. EACH EVENING, AFTER HEARING TESTIMONY ALL DAY, WE OFTEN SPOKE OUR PRIVATE THOUGHTS CONCERNING WHAT WE HAD SEEN AND HEARD. I RECALL ADMIRAL KIDD REPEATEDLY REFERRING TO THE ISRAELI FORCES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ATTACK AS “MURDEROUS BASTARDS.” IT WAS OUR SHARED BELIEF, BASED ON THE DOCUMENTARY EVIDENCE AND TESTIMONY WE RECEIVED FIRST HAND, THAT THE ISRAELI ATTACK WAS PLANNED AND DELIBERATE, AND COULD NOT POSSIBLY HAVE BEEN AN ACCIDENT.
I AM CERTAIN THAT THE ISRAELI PILOTS THAT UNDERTOOK THE ATTACK, AS WELL AS THEIR SUPERIORS, WHO HAD ORDERED THE ATTACK, WERE WELL AWARE THAT THE SHIP WAS AMERICAN.
ADMIRAL KIDD AND I BOTH FELT IT NECESSARY TO TRAVEL TO ISRAEL TO INTERVIEW THE ISRAELIS WHO TOOK PART IN THE ATTACK. ADMIRAL KIDD TELEPHONED ADMIRAL MCCAIN TO DISCUSS MAKING ARRANGEMENTS. ADMIRAL KIDD LATER TOLD ME THAT ADMIRAL MCCAIN WAS ADAMANT THAT WE WERE NOT TO TRAVEL TO ISRAEL OR CONTACT THE ISRAELIS CONCERNING THIS MATTER.
REGRETTABLY, WE DID NOT RECEIVE INTO EVIDENCE AND THE COURT DID NOT CONSIDER ANY OF THE MORE THAN SIXTY WITNESS DECLARATIONS FROM MEN WHO HAD BEEN HOSPITALIZED AND WERE UNABLE TO TESTIFY IN PERSON.
I AM OUTRAGED AT THE EFFORTS OF THE APOLOGISTS FOR ISRAEL IN THIS COUNTRY TO CLAIM THAT THIS ATTACK WAS A CASE OF “MISTAKEN IDENTITY.”
I KNOW FROM PERSONAL CONVERSATIONS I HAD WITH ADMIRAL KIDD THAT PRESIDENT LYNDON JOHNSON AND SECRETARY OF DEFENSE ROBERT MCNAMARA ORDERED HIM TO CONCLUDE THAT THE ATTACK WAS A CASE OF “MISTAKEN IDENTITY” DESPITE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY.
ADMIRAL KIDD TOLD ME, AFTER RETURNING FROM WASHINGTON, D.C. THAT HE HAD BEEN ORDERED TO SIT DOWN WITH TWO CIVILIANS FROM EITHER THE WHITE HOUSE OR THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT, AND REWRITE PORTIONS OF THE COURT’S FINDINGS.
ADMIRAL KIDD ALSO TOLD ME THAT HE HAD BEEN ORDERED TO “PUT THE LID” ON EVERYTHING HAVING TO DO WITH THE ATTACK ON USS LIBERTY. WE WERE NEVER TO SPEAK OF IT AND WE WERE TO CAUTION EVERYONE ELSE INVOLVED THAT THEY COULD NEVER SPEAK OF IT AGAIN.
I HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THE ACCURACY OF THAT STATEMENT AS I KNOW THAT THE COURT OF INQUIRY TRANSCRIPT THAT HAS BEEN RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC IS NOT THE SAME ONE THAT I CERTIFIED AND SENT OFF TO WASHINGTON.
I KNOW THIS BECAUSE IT WAS NECESSARY, DUE TO THE EXIGENCIES OF TIME, TO HAND CORRECT AND INITIAL A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF PAGES. I HAVE EXAMINED THE RELEASED VERSION OF THE TRANSCRIPT AND I DID NOT SEE ANY PAGES THAT BORE MY HAND CORRECTIONS AND INITIALS. ALSO, THE ORIGINAL DID NOT HAVE ANY DELIBERATELY BLANK PAGES, AS THE RELEASED VERSION DOES. FINALLY, THE TESTIMONY OF LT. PAINTER CONCERNING THE DELIBERATE MACHINE GUNNING OF THE LIFE RAFTS BY THE ISRAELI TORPEDO BOAT CREWS, WHICH I DISTINCTLY RECALL BEING GIVEN AT THE COURT OF INQUIRY AND INCLUDED IN THE ORIGINAL TRANSCRIPT, IS NOW MISSING AND HAS BEEN EXCISED.
http://www.ussliberty.org/bostondeclaration.pdf
One Carrier is enough. If the U.S. and Israel attack Iran's Nuke sites it will be started with B-2 bombers in the SEAD role, followed by Israeli strike aircraft with U.S. supplied aerial refueling.
I wonder if 1 carrier is enough to execute a scorched earth plan to level all oilfields in the region if the situation required it...
hmm...
Which carrier is on solo duty?? If it's the Enterprise, then she is a staked out goat just waiting for a false flag strike to sink her off the shore of Iran.
It is all about creating windows of opportunity and exploit them. All sides are playing that game.