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Just A Reminder...

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As you glare hopefully at the critical 1400 level on the S&P 500, we thought a gentle reminder of that vertically challenged relative performance of economic fundamentals would be worthwhile...

 

 


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Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment FoolsAdvice
FoolsAdvice's picture

pfft! Are economic fundamentals still relevant? 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

more importantly, do you trust those "fundamentals"? bc those too are goosed by QE. shift ECRI to 600 and actual SP to around 600-700 and you get the true fundamentals.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

That divergence sort of smacks of lack of fundamentals. Bubblicious!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment quintago
quintago's picture

I get it. The ECRI indicator is off. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

correct. it is exhibiting now classic horizontal QE induced levitation. put another way: spot the other case of prolonged horizontal levitation -- hint: you can't. this means ultra-synthetic float will at some point break down. but what the hell do i know?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

".. but the market can also stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Still waiting for the 'Quadruple Evel Knievel Formation' to emerge...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

the 200 pt divergence is similar to 2009 dip.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Except the duration...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

QE = float = duration. 

 

battle between forces of market mendacity vs. reality, with the former winning, for now...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Nowadays...

~~~

Delta = "time for banksters to convert their year end bonuses [grazie a taxpayers] to PHYZZ ~ MINUS, commission paid to coke dealers & Ukranian hookers" = Duration...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment RockRiver
RockRiver's picture

.....and then we buy!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

And I got the bruises that prove that!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Quick!! Throw a live chicken in it's mouth!!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Furthermore stocks are priced/valued using an assumption of continual growth into perpetuity (90s style), when in fact there has been no growth to speak of since 2008.  We'll need to use lower multiples on those "fundamentals" that you rightly question.  Perhaps you're being too optimistic with a 600-700 SP valuation :)

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment FoolsAdvice
FoolsAdvice's picture

"These aren't the economic fundamentals you're looking for..." <hand wave>

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

who blows up the Bernanke Death Star?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Mr. Panos

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Don't confuse market fundamentals with economic fundamentals.  Supply and demand will always prevail.  Thge markets may just skew the economics up for a while.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

i thought technicals were O_0

lol FUBAR

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Fight the fed in the name of fundamentals.  

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I'm fighting the Fed in the name of Farah Faucet.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment dugorama
dugorama's picture

one more time:

fight the power

http://youtu.be/wO2ebiuV3hU

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Gappage.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

AAPL crushing shorts again today. Some things don't make sense but a stock that got manipulated down to super cheap levels was a no brainer to buy. AAPL holding losses in check with its strength today.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Gypsyducks
Gypsyducks's picture

If $515/share is "super cheap" what is $415/share?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Still over price IMHO...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

We all have our opinions but AAPL still has amazing growth and funds that sold on the way down are chasing it up furiously. The story is still intact and momo chasers will try to test the 700 high again. Can't believe how many negatives that very truthful statement received. Grumpy bears??

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

dead cat bounce.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Are you the new ZH ROBOTARD?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:32 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

A $100 loss.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Wait for the Apple buy back when it's back under 10 bucks.  Then it'll be a cheap short.

 

Like the last time Steve Jobs left...and the time before that...and the time before that.  This time though, Jobs ain't coming back to steer the ship in the proper direction.  The assclowns running the company are repeating, play by play the exact same mistakes as last time.

 

Keep your gun in the holster for a bit.  They are just stocks...nothing important about them anymore or the accidental risk of profit.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

So, you are unaware of "channeled" holograms. Stevie isn't deleted, he is in reset.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

AAPL middle men are down to sueing competitors to try to make a buck these days. It's over Rover.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Unless they have invented anti-gravity or something else reverse-engineered from UFOs they are in trouble.  The current tech is out there solid with the competition.  What they have going for them it seems is holding people's licensing information hostage.  lol.  Folks should know better than to run single-source.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

..and the competition (cough) to Apple have what going for them precisely?

Microshit is so far behind Apple you need binoculars to see them

..meanwhile the GOOn squad are swimming in red ink selling their crap at a loss ...Priceless

any of you anti-Apple Einsteins got a leg to stand on put it on a postcard to:

Reggie's Desperate Last Stand, Monopolist Matrix Central, Shit & Bust. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

That divergence you are looking at is pure inflation.  The curves taken together, show classic stagflation.  In the past, prices reverted to the fundamentals.  This time really is different since we have a printfest like never before.  Prices will not revert unless the $US gains nominal value.  What are the chances of that?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Am I the only one that doesn't give a urine-bisected shit about the S&P 500?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Got to create a left shoulder somewhere

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

 

 

 

"Fundamentals? We don' need no steenkin' fundamentals!"

                                                                   Ben Bernake

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

read any good fiction lately?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:32 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Every time I hit refresh.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

naw man, just shift the green line down by 2 grid hashmarks and you'll clearly see the S&P has been underperforming for the past 4 years. (/sarc)

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What's 'critical' about S&P 1400? I remember when 'critical' level was 1000 only a short time ago. Bunch of hogwash, like tinsel on a unicorn its all just bullshit.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

What's critical about a 200 day average?  What about 50 days?

What the *#$&@ does that have to do with the actual value of an equity at any given point in time?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nothing.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The green lines look like Maria's tits.

The red lines like Erin's tits.

Waiting for the two to meet.

Or maybe both girls grow a 3rd tit?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Shigure
Shigure's picture

Three tits? That's awesome!

Paul 2011: 3 Tits That's Awesome - YouTube

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Milestones
Milestones's picture

On the back of course! Gotta have a place to hank on to when dancing.           Milestones

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Wow, now that's an IN YO FACE BERNAKE SPECIAL close!

89 degrees straight up!

I never thought they could do that.  I didn't learn the first 832 times already.  I'll have to wait for the next "tomorrow is the day they *might* stop this shit and the bottom will fall out" post.  Should be arriving momentarily.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH dont worry, they'll just ramp the shit in futures if need be...who really cares?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Major Fedage on the podium tomorrow.  

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Are you still staunch in your 'The FED has to sell eventually and can't do this forever' position?

Guess what...they can.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Fed is under orders from WH + Congress.

And the answer is: No they can't. They meaning WH + Congress.

 

The reason: The more securities they buy, the higher the unemployement in the financial sector.

QE3 looks good for big banks in surface only, but it's a dealth hole for financial jobs.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

As long as they can print, e-print, digitize, or otherwise conjure up money and have the primary dealers to buy equities AND refuse an audit AND the SEC and CFTC are COMPLICIT....they can do WHATEVER THE F&*# THEY WANT TO DO.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

The only way to PRINT is to BUY. When they buy, they remove securities from the market. Hence, the more they buy, the less need to have traders employed; not much left to trade.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Which is why they trade with each other with magic money.

They can do it all day long and all day strong.

I'm quite sure they don't give a shit about the actual 'traders' futures or fortunes.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Agree. Anyone else is not need. Show them the door.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

700 trillion in dervitives aren't too shabby

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Derivatives are traded face to face mostly. You don't need trading desks for those.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment hairball48
hairball48's picture

Nothing lasts "forever", and that includes the Fed's printing operation. Confidence in the US$ is going to fail at some point...and even though I'm an old man, I believe I'll be around to see the "crack-up boom" as Mises put it :)

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

just need to seasonally adjust the red line...problem solved

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

So who's tits would you rather have slowly dragged across your face?  That is all I want to know.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

keep that banana in your pants where it belongs....

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I was thinking 1250ish on SPX at a minimum but based on this chart it seems the SPX always overshoots the ECRI to the downside before any base is put in. Looks to me like if the SPX corrects back to ECRI and then overshoots (like it has the last 3 times) then the down side target on SPX should be closer to 1100ish.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Is that FREE advice?  Oh man...I knew I read these comments for a reason!

I"M GONNA BE RICH!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

and I also belive that this 1750 area in gold is marking the top of it's counter-trend move  higher and will now roll over and take stocks down hard with it... but all in context of a bull market with many years to go.

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I think the Pacers will cover tonight and the over will come in.  Wait....yea, I'm sure of it.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

This is all SOOO over my head.  Just tell me which one to buy.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Quick!  Everyone purchase 10 yr USts yielding 1.6% nominally! Nevermind the premium nor inflation!  Do it in the name of fundamentals!!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i am just waiting for the first day that cnbc tells me at 8:30am where the market is going to finish that day. it's coming soon. i was against it at first but now i just don't give a shit anymore.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Can we just move forward and start jacking the futures higher?

Jesus...all this talk and conjecture.  Let's back to defrauding my 4 year old's future and, more importantly, handing over his yet-to-be-earned earnings.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Texas Fold-em
Texas Fold-em's picture

Lies, damn lies and scaling errors.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

D

E

C

O

U

P

L

E

Bitchez!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment EARLPEARL
EARLPEARL's picture

i have been reading zero hedge for 4 years now and it has made me a MILLIONAIRE....I WAS A MULTI-MILLIONAIRE

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

that is what you get for shorting the vix, 'mmmmm. uvxy, tvix?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You should convert those Yen.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Interesting that the graphs seperate at about the time, through casual observance, I detected the FED was fully hotwired into, and took over, the markets.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

and entire year?  i guess that is the new normal, permenant decoupling.  in 10 years they'll be teaching young investors that the S&P is always 15% above the fundementals. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Hallpass2012
Hallpass2012's picture

the only fundamentals that can consistently make you millions is following the price of an underlying security... the price is the fundamentals....

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:18 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

It's a HFT gamed market, if you haven't worked that out you should probably not trade in the market.  But, it will blow, the valuation spread to earnings + the machines re-adjustments of the moving averages + messy profit taking will send this thing down one way or other.

When?  F*ck knows...but there are some good clues, Asia has to sell (Japan/HK sans China), fat DXY bids, like 85+, commodities collapsing once again and my fav...War and chaos.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

Bullish?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment one_fell_swoop
one_fell_swoop's picture

OVERLAY TWO COLORED CHARTS.  IMPLY CAUSATION.  NEXT POST.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment mccoyspace
mccoyspace's picture

Well obviously this time it's different.

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