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Just A Reminder...
As you glare hopefully at the critical 1400 level on the S&P 500, we thought a gentle reminder of that vertically challenged relative performance of economic fundamentals would be worthwhile...
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pfft! Are economic fundamentals still relevant?
more importantly, do you trust those "fundamentals"? bc those too are goosed by QE. shift ECRI to 600 and actual SP to around 600-700 and you get the true fundamentals.
That divergence sort of smacks of lack of fundamentals. Bubblicious!
I get it. The ECRI indicator is off.
correct. it is exhibiting now classic horizontal QE induced levitation. put another way: spot the other case of prolonged horizontal levitation -- hint: you can't. this means ultra-synthetic float will at some point break down. but what the hell do i know?
".. but the market can also stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
Still waiting for the 'Quadruple Evel Knievel Formation' to emerge...
the 200 pt divergence is similar to 2009 dip.
Quad Evel Knievel Chartage
~~~
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/evil-kniev-quad-form.png
Quad Evel Knievel Chartage
~~~
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/evil-kniev-quad-form.png
Except the duration...
QE = float = duration.
battle between forces of market mendacity vs. reality, with the former winning, for now...
Nowadays...
~~~
Delta = "time for banksters to convert their year end bonuses [grazie a taxpayers] to PHYZZ ~ MINUS, commission paid to coke dealers & Ukranian hookers" = Duration...
.....and then we buy!
And I got the bruises that prove that!
Quick!! Throw a live chicken in it's mouth!!
Furthermore stocks are priced/valued using an assumption of continual growth into perpetuity (90s style), when in fact there has been no growth to speak of since 2008. We'll need to use lower multiples on those "fundamentals" that you rightly question. Perhaps you're being too optimistic with a 600-700 SP valuation :)
"These aren't the economic fundamentals you're looking for..." <hand wave>
who blows up the Bernanke Death Star?
Mr. Panos
Don't confuse market fundamentals with economic fundamentals. Supply and demand will always prevail. Thge markets may just skew the economics up for a while.
i thought technicals were O_0
lol FUBAR
Fight the fed in the name of fundamentals.
I'm fighting the Fed in the name of Farah Faucet.
one more time:
fight the power
http://youtu.be/wO2ebiuV3hU
Gappage.
AAPL crushing shorts again today. Some things don't make sense but a stock that got manipulated down to super cheap levels was a no brainer to buy. AAPL holding losses in check with its strength today.
If $515/share is "super cheap" what is $415/share?
Still over price IMHO...
We all have our opinions but AAPL still has amazing growth and funds that sold on the way down are chasing it up furiously. The story is still intact and momo chasers will try to test the 700 high again. Can't believe how many negatives that very truthful statement received. Grumpy bears??
dead cat bounce.
Are you the new ZH ROBOTARD?
A $100 loss.
Wait for the Apple buy back when it's back under 10 bucks. Then it'll be a cheap short.
Like the last time Steve Jobs left...and the time before that...and the time before that. This time though, Jobs ain't coming back to steer the ship in the proper direction. The assclowns running the company are repeating, play by play the exact same mistakes as last time.
Keep your gun in the holster for a bit. They are just stocks...nothing important about them anymore or the accidental risk of profit.
So, you are unaware of "channeled" holograms. Stevie isn't deleted, he is in reset.
AAPL middle men are down to sueing competitors to try to make a buck these days. It's over Rover.
Unless they have invented anti-gravity or something else reverse-engineered from UFOs they are in trouble. The current tech is out there solid with the competition. What they have going for them it seems is holding people's licensing information hostage. lol. Folks should know better than to run single-source.
..and the competition (cough) to Apple have what going for them precisely?
Microshit is so far behind Apple you need binoculars to see them
..meanwhile the GOOn squad are swimming in red ink selling their crap at a loss ...Priceless
any of you anti-Apple Einsteins got a leg to stand on put it on a postcard to:
Reggie's Desperate Last Stand, Monopolist Matrix Central, Shit & Bust.
That divergence you are looking at is pure inflation. The curves taken together, show classic stagflation. In the past, prices reverted to the fundamentals. This time really is different since we have a printfest like never before. Prices will not revert unless the $US gains nominal value. What are the chances of that?
Am I the only one that doesn't give a urine-bisected shit about the S&P 500?
Got to create a left shoulder somewhere
"Fundamentals? We don' need no steenkin' fundamentals!"
Ben Bernake
read any good fiction lately?
Every time I hit refresh.
naw man, just shift the green line down by 2 grid hashmarks and you'll clearly see the S&P has been underperforming for the past 4 years. (/sarc)
What's 'critical' about S&P 1400? I remember when 'critical' level was 1000 only a short time ago. Bunch of hogwash, like tinsel on a unicorn its all just bullshit.
What's critical about a 200 day average? What about 50 days?
What the *#$&@ does that have to do with the actual value of an equity at any given point in time?
Nothing.
The green lines look like Maria's tits.
The red lines like Erin's tits.
Waiting for the two to meet.
Or maybe both girls grow a 3rd tit?
Three tits? That's awesome!
Paul 2011: 3 Tits That's Awesome - YouTube
On the back of course! Gotta have a place to hank on to when dancing. Milestones
Wow, now that's an IN YO FACE BERNAKE SPECIAL close!
89 degrees straight up!
I never thought they could do that. I didn't learn the first 832 times already. I'll have to wait for the next "tomorrow is the day they *might* stop this shit and the bottom will fall out" post. Should be arriving momentarily.
AH dont worry, they'll just ramp the shit in futures if need be...who really cares?
Major Fedage on the podium tomorrow.
Are you still staunch in your 'The FED has to sell eventually and can't do this forever' position?
Guess what...they can.
Fed is under orders from WH + Congress.
And the answer is: No they can't. They meaning WH + Congress.
The reason: The more securities they buy, the higher the unemployement in the financial sector.
QE3 looks good for big banks in surface only, but it's a dealth hole for financial jobs.
As long as they can print, e-print, digitize, or otherwise conjure up money and have the primary dealers to buy equities AND refuse an audit AND the SEC and CFTC are COMPLICIT....they can do WHATEVER THE F&*# THEY WANT TO DO.
The only way to PRINT is to BUY. When they buy, they remove securities from the market. Hence, the more they buy, the less need to have traders employed; not much left to trade.
Which is why they trade with each other with magic money.
They can do it all day long and all day strong.
I'm quite sure they don't give a shit about the actual 'traders' futures or fortunes.
Agree. Anyone else is not need. Show them the door.
700 trillion in dervitives aren't too shabby
Derivatives are traded face to face mostly. You don't need trading desks for those.
Nothing lasts "forever", and that includes the Fed's printing operation. Confidence in the US$ is going to fail at some point...and even though I'm an old man, I believe I'll be around to see the "crack-up boom" as Mises put it :)
just need to seasonally adjust the red line...problem solved
So who's tits would you rather have slowly dragged across your face? That is all I want to know.
keep that banana in your pants where it belongs....
I was thinking 1250ish on SPX at a minimum but based on this chart it seems the SPX always overshoots the ECRI to the downside before any base is put in. Looks to me like if the SPX corrects back to ECRI and then overshoots (like it has the last 3 times) then the down side target on SPX should be closer to 1100ish.
Is that FREE advice? Oh man...I knew I read these comments for a reason!
I"M GONNA BE RICH!
and I also belive that this 1750 area in gold is marking the top of it's counter-trend move higher and will now roll over and take stocks down hard with it... but all in context of a bull market with many years to go.
I think the Pacers will cover tonight and the over will come in. Wait....yea, I'm sure of it.
This is all SOOO over my head. Just tell me which one to buy.
Quick! Everyone purchase 10 yr USts yielding 1.6% nominally! Nevermind the premium nor inflation! Do it in the name of fundamentals!!
i am just waiting for the first day that cnbc tells me at 8:30am where the market is going to finish that day. it's coming soon. i was against it at first but now i just don't give a shit anymore.
Can we just move forward and start jacking the futures higher?
Jesus...all this talk and conjecture. Let's back to defrauding my 4 year old's future and, more importantly, handing over his yet-to-be-earned earnings.
Lies, damn lies and scaling errors.
D
E
C
O
U
P
L
E
Bitchez!
i have been reading zero hedge for 4 years now and it has made me a MILLIONAIRE....I WAS A MULTI-MILLIONAIRE
that is what you get for shorting the vix, 'mmmmm. uvxy, tvix?
You should convert those Yen.
Interesting that the graphs seperate at about the time, through casual observance, I detected the FED was fully hotwired into, and took over, the markets.
and entire year? i guess that is the new normal, permenant decoupling. in 10 years they'll be teaching young investors that the S&P is always 15% above the fundementals.
the only fundamentals that can consistently make you millions is following the price of an underlying security... the price is the fundamentals....
It's a HFT gamed market, if you haven't worked that out you should probably not trade in the market. But, it will blow, the valuation spread to earnings + the machines re-adjustments of the moving averages + messy profit taking will send this thing down one way or other.
When? F*ck knows...but there are some good clues, Asia has to sell (Japan/HK sans China), fat DXY bids, like 85+, commodities collapsing once again and my fav...War and chaos.
Bullish?
OVERLAY TWO COLORED CHARTS. IMPLY CAUSATION. NEXT POST.
Well obviously this time it's different.