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Mark Grant On Greece: "There Is No Deal Here"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

There is no deal here. There is a fantasy of projections and some wishful thinking but no deal. There is not even an agreement on disbursement as codified in the last paragraph of the statement (here). The odds on Greece reaching a primary surplus in the next several years are about 1 degree off of Kelvin's Absolute Zero [the market seems to agree]

The deferral of interest payments and the extension of the loans have some meaning but are nowhere close to bridging the deficit gap.

All of this of course has to go back to the nations' Parliaments and it may not be as readily accepted as some hope.

There is not even a definitive agreement yet to give Greece more money.

The debt buy-back (as we discussed here) is governed under British law and while they are once again going after the private sector bondholders there is no CAC to enforce any action though there is the obvious falsification of prior claims that "it will never happen again."

What we have here are more promises, a concocted ruse and an agreement on a concept that is actually no deal at all.

I would also say that Mr. Draghi lost a good deal of credibility tonight touting this statement as an agreement that would "reduce uncertainty."

Ms. Lagarde's statement:

“The initiatives include Greek debt buybacks, return of Securities Market Programme (SMP) profits to Greece, reduction of Greek Loan Facility (GLF) interest rates, significant extension of GLF and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) maturities, and the deferral of EFSF interest rate payments."

is also factually incorrect as these are "maybe" proposals for the most part as stated in the EU official pronouncement.

What we have here is one more "huff and puff" and no agreement by any definition that I would find acceptable. 

 

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Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:47 | 3013161 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

no deal? really? ya think?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:59 | 3013190 akak
akak's picture

Eat your Thanksgiving turkey leftovers and STFU.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:07 | 3013202 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

you got it akakaa, you got it. i shit my thanks giving out every motherfucking day.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:18 | 3013230 akak
akak's picture

Yes, and onto ground that once belonged to Native Americans, thereby defiling them and all of their ancestors.  That makes you a racist swine who deserves death.

(If the above does not make any sense, it is only because I am following the 'logic' of your recent mindless rants against the Thanksgiving holiday.)

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:27 | 3013248 Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

I don't know whether to give any of you up or down arrows on your turkey tirades.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:32 | 3013259 akak
akak's picture

Do as your conscience dictates.

I just can't tolerate in the least the kind of kneejerk, irrational, blanket hatred that VD showed on Thanksgiving Day, or that AnAnonymous shows in every one of his sweeping anti-American posts.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:34 | 3013268 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have blind hatred towards Ben Inkjet Akak. It's kneejerk, irrational, blind hatred towards Ben Inkjet Akak and I completely admit it. Ben Inkjet (according to the other article) loves cash. Who knew? I've lost it.

Okay I'm done. Sorry.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:39 | 3013276 akak
akak's picture

One might have blind hatred towards Ben Inkjet, but that hatred is surely never irrational.

;-)

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:41 | 3013283 Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

I thought I'd get at least an up arrow from Akak for "Turkey Tirade"

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:46 | 3013297 akak
akak's picture

It was good, I will admit, but it did not pass the stringent Akak quality threshold for an up-arrow from yours truly.

My threshold for down-arrows is much lower, though, and you do not give receive one of those either.  You should consider yourself thankful for that.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 02:22 | 3013632 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The plain arithmetic states that there is no saving the EU in any form remotely resembling what it used to appear to be, or was envisioned to be at its inception.

Even if Germans and the relatively few other "solvent" but smaller north European nations gave 80% of their net incomes in pure, dedicated "charity" to PIIGS+France, for the next 10 years straight, it couldn't save them, and it would absolutely ruin those presently solvent, driving their economies into a depression.

There was a fatal flaw in the incorporation papers of the EU that was overlooked and/or ignored and that can't be corrected ex post facto (since the damage has been done).

The European Union, for all practical purposes, is dead, even if not formally eulogized yet.

You can't "fix" the math, stupid or Paul Krugman.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:07 | 3013334 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

my shit is derived from organic foods so the dead injuns are thankful that i am fertilizer grade. you and your hormone turkey (a)kaka i'm not sure about.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:29 | 3013390 Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

I hope the spirit of Russell Means is still hanging around our Earthly Plane and kicking some ass.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:59 | 3013192 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Same old dog and pony show, zerohedge is like watching forest gump over and over again

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:19 | 3013234 ShorTed
ShorTed's picture

So, "Run Forest" but in your case, don't come back. Sorry you're not fully enlightened or entertained.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:00 | 3013196 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

So, when does it blow up?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:08 | 3013324 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

And that's the key.

You have to understand what this all means, and everyone pontificating in ZH comments (often far, far . . . light-years superior to the actual articles) thinks they do understand the big picture.  

I'll say that most are talking their book.  Mostly about gold.  What they see coming is what will boost gold.

What I see coming, and there's no reason to listen to me at all, is that we have proof in hand of only one thing.  THEY WILL DO ANYTHING TO KEEP THE WHEELS TURNING.  Anything means anything.  You think some obfuscation and bullshit in a report would make them reluctant?  These people had Dominique Strauss Kahn framed for rape to get him out of the IMF.  These people threatened to pull the banking licenses of banks across Europe if they didn't take the February Greek haircut AND not declare default.  You think they'd stop at mere bullshit in a report?

There is never, ever going to be a moment when EU functionaries walk to a microphone and say "we give up.  It's all over.  Greece and whoever will collapse."  That's never going to happen.  They will ALWAYS resort to bullshit.  Money didn't exist in the Garden of Eden.  It was invented.  It's a product of imagination.  You can make it be anything you want it to be just to KEEP THE WHEELS TURNING.

Only oil ends this, guys.  Nothing else is real.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:19 | 3013357 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Just more Bullshit....and the futures are rallying again on the Bullshit so I guess the Bullshit works. It's all Bullshit until the printing stops and the can kicking ends. Rally on!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 02:36 | 3013639 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 "So when does it blow up?

 

It already has. They just don't want to admit it.

Reality is a bitch, but if you can fool the sheeple with platitudes and Ponzi schemes (that even Charles Ponzi would have thought too non-sensical to 'pull off') for a while, that's what will happen for a while.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:22 | 3013509 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

CiO, the population can be trimmed down if needed for oil to last them another 100-200 years. Nothing stops this.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:48 | 3013547 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

If you trim it down enough, it (the oil) lasts forever.

And you do realize you're talking about billions of people dead.  None of them are going to be volunteers.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:28 | 3014416 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

"None of them are going to be volunteers."

Easy, just tell them that they need to fight the "trimmers".

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 01:03 | 3013563 Ajas
Ajas's picture

It ends when the German people say "Nein."

And then Schauble explains "No, this deal is necessary or our $400B will be paid back in Drachmas!"

And the German people say "No, they will repay us in Deutschemarks."

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:51 | 3013174 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Buy the rumor, sell the news...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:51 | 3013175 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Can't we just skip the "Deal / No Deal" and shag some of the models holding the cases?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:52 | 3013179 vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

Its deal in the dream, just keep kicking can down the road.

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/11/upcoming-fda-approval-in-decembe...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:56 | 3013180 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

What have these jokers got against the concept of national currency ?

 

Jean claude is funny but Ollie really cracks me up.

 

I am sure the words "go fuck yourself" transcends all cultural bounderies.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:58 | 3013191 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Greece should have been forced out of the Euro long ago. I no longer pay much attention to these "deals", which appear to be the most amazing financial clusterfuck ever seen.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:59 | 3013194 chump666
chump666's picture

EUR just blew out.

No deal.

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:00 | 3013197 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Its a done DEAL, but no way an agreement.

 

It must be truly broken and the only option is to kick the can farther down the timeline. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:08 | 3013215 max2205
max2205's picture

Wait, now I am confused

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:14 | 3013220 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

There can be no domestic flow within the Greek economy with the Euro.

 

Sweet Jesus ....its not working for France.

 

They want a false reserve currency as a domestic currency.........

 

What a load of bollox.

 

Let me explain this - its very simple

Banks don't do money , they do credit

Nations do money

 

The euro market state is not a functional entity as it is not a nation state.

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:12 | 3013222 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

I hear Greece tourism is being crushed by its new image as not a fun place.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:07 | 3014016 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I was in Northern Greece 4 months ago. The only outward sign of any distress was that every business was cash-only. Other than that, you never would have known anything was happening.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:21 | 3013242 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The key was no key.

As the aside: as human beings in control of our spoken language, we owe it to future generations to make sure that the term "Greek deal" comes into the lexicon to describe all plans/solutions/good-things which are already fully acknowledged as NEVER GOING TO OCCUR.

Maybe it's unfair to judge before 2022...

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:17 | 3013499 Dick Fitz
Dick Fitz's picture

BDog-

What is your icon? It's driving me crazy trying to figure it out.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:39 | 3014111 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

It's a street sign telling the commuting businessman not to bash the baby in the pram in the head with his briefcase.

(We can all use the reminder.)

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 08:48 | 3013822 bag holder
bag holder's picture

We already have that. It's better known as a "Trojan horse".

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:26 | 3013252 Cheshire
Cheshire's picture

I dont think its going to work this time. They missed the part where Greece gets X on such and such day. Whatever happened ti the rail bonds anyway?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:34 | 3013269 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

"The debt buy-back (as we discussed here) is governed under British law and while they are once again going after the private sector bondholders there is no CAC to enforce any action"???

But I remember that there IS a CAC to enforce bond buyback.

http://www.minfin.gr/portal/en/resource/contentObject/id/7ad6442f-1777-4d02-80fb-91191c606664

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:41 | 3013282 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Jump ahead three years from today and I'll bet anyone the same meetings will be taking place and the same general solutions being called the fix to the Greek crisis.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:05 | 3013331 sangell
sangell's picture

Listened to the press conference. These guys didn't kick the can they launched it into deep space! The Troika will be in business in the 2040's!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:23 | 3013372 TNTARG
TNTARG's picture

Maybe, engaged with Italy perhaps. Greeks and other will be extinguished of starvation by the time.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:23 | 3013370 coop
coop's picture

There is no way that the EU is going to let them bail out .... and the Greeks know it.

Time to dust off this video again.

"Thank you for the money Germany. We have been waiting a long time.....for war reparations"

"The Greek crisis explained" ... from the Greek point of view!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9cD3tyfKsI

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:30 | 3013393 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Everyone can recognize it as BS when one of the announced funding sources is ECB "profits from investments in Greek bonds."

Until I can read that someone has actually seen the cleared check used to fund Greece, It is all a joke.  Most surprising is that there are still enough people with funds left who can and will rally any market based upon another announcement of nothing.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:48 | 3013432 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

(Chart here:

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/greek-can-kicked-past-germa... )

The chart above from ZeroHedge helps to show what is really driving the Greek bailout deal. If you thought it was the welfare of the Greek people , then you have not been paying enough attention to the Eurocrisis.

In the chart above, GDP continues its descent until after German elections in the fall of 2013. Then, the number begins rising dramatically. This is no coincidence. The purpose of the this deal is to avoid problems for a few more months to enable Merkel’s reelection. The GDP numbers are realistically poor until the fall, because Germany needs them to be. Actual money is needed to plug funding holes until the election.

After the election, it makes no difference what happens, so unrealistic projections may be used instead of real money to plug financing holes. The next time Greece needs to be bailed out, Merkel will try to get a longer term deal to keep Greece in the euro. If the political calculus does not favor another bailout for Greece, she will allow it to default. It’s that simple.

While the deal expertly defers the Greek problem for another few months, it will do nothing to arrest the descent of the economy. The Greek people receive nothing for their suffering except malaria and more suicides. The Greek politicians receive money to hand out to their cronies at the banks.

The IMF did well. It conceded to allow the Eurozone to raise the sustainability goal to 124% Debt to GDP in exchange for an agreement to reduce Greece’s debt to under 110% by 2022. The only way to reduce the debt ratio that low by 2022 is for the Eurozone to forgive Greek loans. I am skeptical that this will  happen, but we will have to wait until 2016 to see if I am correct. In politics, that is a lifetime, and Schaeuble’s language is vague enough so that he can claim that nothing was promised.

The German led Eurozone did very well in this deal. In exchange for maintaining the status quo for a few more months, they gave up peanuts:

    Lower interest rate on bilateral loans
    Relinquishing profits an ECB held debt
    Extending the maturity of the loans
    Deferring interest payments for 10 years
    Loaning the money to Greece to buy back its outstanding debt

The first two points actually help Greece, but the last three are mere window dressing. Extending the maturity of the loans and deferring interest payments for 10  years ensures that the Greeks will be debt slaves long after Samaras, Merkel and Juncker have retired to their summer homes.

The Greek buy back is actually bad for Greece, because it will not be able to obtain replacement financing on such generous terms:

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/11/21/greek-bond-exchange-is-a-ba...

 

At least it makes the numbers look good today.

While the whole deal is a scam whereby Petros is being robbed to pay Pavlos, the biggest lie comes to us courtesy of the biggest liar in the Eurozone. Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Jean-Paul Juncker:

    “This is not just about the money. This is the promise of a better future for the Greek people and for the euro area as a whole, a break from the era of missed targets and loose implementation towards a new paradigm of steadfast reform momentum, declining debt ratios and a return to growth,” he told a 2 a.m. new conference.

He’s right about one thing. It isn’t just about the money. It’s about German elections. See you at the next Greek bailout summit, J.P.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 03:14 | 3013658 spartan speculation
spartan speculation's picture

crashisoptimistic is right they're is nothing these guys wont do to prop up the euro.  when you cant deliver any real news to ramp the euro's price they settle for meaningless headlines, without any fundamental positives. the euro price has not softened even though ive read many posters say this. it should but hasnt yet especially since the euro has been in striaght ramp mode since 12735 now its at 130 without even a retrace. the s&p was ramped with very low volume also. so go with the flow they want a higher euro / lower dollar. ben will come to the rescue on the 12th and buy more bonds becuase their isnt enough money in the global economy to support the broke governments and buy everything traded that has a ticker on it.

 

the cans shall be kicked until theirs no rubber on thy shoes 

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 03:29 | 3013662 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

reality and central banking do not go well together.

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