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NYSE Volume: Is This Some Joke...?

Tyler Durden's picture


Earlier we noted the dismal volume in the markets today, it turns out we under-estimated just how dismal... Today was the lowest Monday-after-Thanksgiving Day NYSE volume since 1996! We suspect you will not hear that 'fact' on your favorite business media channel when they crow of the 'well off the lows' performance today...





(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)


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Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:20 | 3012783 ACP
ACP's picture

"What is this some kind of sick joke?"

"Sir, no sir!"

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:42 | 3012852 alphabrew
alphabrew's picture

"Bullshit I can't hear you!"

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:48 | 3012864 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

Looks like a head on a massive head and shoulders pattern in the works it ain't coming back for another 20 years,,,,,,,,,,,,volume that is,,,,,,,

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:54 | 3012886 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Cyclone at Coney Island?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:56 | 3012901 CH1
CH1's picture


This is Fed Theater. The 401K crowd must be maintained in their slumbers.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:23 | 3012955 seek
seek's picture

I'm starting to think even the slow folks in the 401K crowd may have started bailing out.

It may not be Fed theater -- just the Fed masturbating by themselves while we watch via the charts.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:33 | 3013128 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Unfortunately, when the fed masturbates we all get jizzed on.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:56 | 3013034 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

As you can see, the bullet entered right here, and exited right there.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:35 | 3013133 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Some Jungian thing....

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:21 | 3012787 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Everything dialing back to '96...then '95 ...then

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:37 | 3012832 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Peak volume during oil's production platuae.  Who woulda thunk it?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:42 | 3012851 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Yes Tyler, it is a joke.  But we are all still waiting for the punchline ...


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:21 | 3012790 docmac324
docmac324's picture

Looks like a decent haircut, for the reality bunch.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:21 | 3012792 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

centrally planned markets are belong to us!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:24 | 3012794 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

why are you speechless Tyler? look at 1992, heh, or 1982 (the year banks in America lost more money then they made since their inception)...


and the volume here at ZH of late has also been quite low to boot.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:36 | 3012835 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That's because all of the Romneyites drank themselves to death after the Obama victory.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:40 | 3012849 Orly
Orly's picture

Either that or the caustic and ornery gold-bug types are most annoying...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:45 | 3013001 NooooB
NooooB's picture

I like them. I read their posts in the "get off my lawn" voice.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:59 | 3013185 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That sentence makes no sense.  Instead of trying your hand in literature why don't you go back to pressing buttons like a caged monkey.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:04 | 3013205 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Well after your done smoking the illusionary paper pole for gains of I O U s and promisses of hope , hookers like you come and jump on the golden shaft and try and go silver balls deep ..   I would say paper humpers are much more annoying do to there greed and delusional understanding of true gain of wealth ,

illusion is the first of all pleasures

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:49 | 3012870 ekm
ekm's picture

Very good, very good point actually.

Even main stream media is paying not much attention to anything let alone Greece.


It shows that people have become totally numb since nothing makes sense. If retires have move already their money into cash accounts out of stocks, I guess no more reason to comment on ZH. ZH should be proud of this.


I credit ZH for the low NYSE volume since it's opened people's eyes.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:23 | 3012796 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

It's called the new normal: aka, AMZN got Robots. Everyone is waiting to see what happens (and no, the new I5 Appletastic-in-cardboard-this-time-for-March-2013 isn't fluffing like it used to).

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:22 | 3012797 surf0766
surf0766's picture

green shoots bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb-cups

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:27 | 3012798 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

favorite business media channel


ZH is my business media channel and I heard it here

as for CNBS and Bloomberg

whores all

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:23 | 3012799 soccerballtux
soccerballtux's picture

That's odd. What are the most likely reasons for this?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:09 | 3012871 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Algos took a well-earned Thanksgiving break

all work and no play makes Algo a very dull electronic toilet flush mechanism

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:24 | 3012800 Being Free
Being Free's picture

Look for SEC transaction fees to rise.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:24 | 3012802 metastar
metastar's picture

Where are the bots, the robos, the HFTs? Who will save us?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:21 | 3013365 xray vision
xray vision's picture

That's sort of what I was wondering.

Way back in the olden days (96), they didn't have HFT and robo trades did they?

So where did their volume come from?

If you could remove the robo trades from the curve, I wonder what it would look like.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:26 | 3012811 chump666
chump666's picture

Alan Moore you legend:

Yes, the market is a joke.

Metaphors baby...metaphors...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:22 | 3012954 chump666
chump666's picture

I totally believe that the end is the beginning, establishment, most (not all) academics and organized religion is frightened by revelation.  Something new.  The system will break naturally anyway, it can't adapt.  The markets are a perfect example of a stagnant and dying concept. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:08 | 3013070 tip e. canoe
Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:29 | 3012813 SIOP
SIOP's picture

I would assume it's High Frequency Trading, or program trading that's throttled down for some reason?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:29 | 3012814 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

What is the meaning of this ????????????

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:58 | 3012905 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

If buyers aren't buying equities, indicative of the low volume, why is the index going up?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:29 | 3012815 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:30 | 3012817 Conman
Conman's picture

It was Sandy's fault!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:59 | 3012908 whiskeyriver
whiskeyriver's picture

Nope, it was Bush's fault. You don't want to be seen as anti femenist by blaming it on Sandy.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:29 | 3012818 chump666
chump666's picture
  • Reuters:  ECB to forego 11 BLN EUR profits on Greek bond portfolio
  • Deal will reduce interest above financing costs on Greek bilateral loans will fall to 50 BPS from 150 BPS once Greece reaches 4.5% primary surplus



Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:43 | 3012853 Orly
Orly's picture

Any more haircuts and they'll look like Indiana's cheerleaders...

Is it USDJPY back to 74?  Inquiring minds want to know...


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:11 | 3012935 chump666
chump666's picture

lol yes and the EUR is compressed between the 5, 100 and 50 MA's (in that order) on a 15min chart - which is bearish in a HFT world.  We need a  slaughter on the DXY to go risk on FX/stocks, just not happening.  As far as stocks go, well again it's the machines running the averages on low/nothing volume.  Can't see this being sustained for much longer. 


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:30 | 3012967 Orly
Orly's picture

Now they're talking about buying back Greek debt at 35 cents on the Euro, turning around and recapitalising the Greek banks with it.  Ultimate kick-the-can, do-over circle jerk.

When does this start making any sense at all?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:47 | 3013160 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

they should have shaved their beavers on TV-it would have been the highest rated TV ever.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:46 | 3012860 Cangoroo
Cangoroo's picture

These idiots think they can find an outcrowding deal and sell their paper. It will not work. Primary surpluses are obsolete, what Investors need is a trading surplus. It is f'****g meaningless whether you shift public to private debt. Total debt is interesting. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:31 | 3012821 Rockfish
Rockfish's picture

IF volume were music i'd say we were about at the end of this song.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:57 | 3012898 whiskeyriver
whiskeyriver's picture

And the eulogy is just starting.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:31 | 3012822 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

This is definitely telling us something but guessing Powerball's winning number is easier.  

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:02 | 3012911 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

this tells us the $billions of soiled nappies Benny is buying off petulent brats Blankfein & Dimon are not going into stocks

...are their derivative exposures costing that much?!! 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:32 | 3012825 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Buy more Silver Fizz.



Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:33 | 3012826 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The algobots only have so much to work with with all the boomers having what is left of their 401ks in bond funds after cashing out the rest to buy new cars.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:34 | 3012830 max2205
max2205's picture

Dark pool volume exploded today.....right?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:03 | 3012917 max2205
max2205's picture

Maybe the dollar vol was more normal?

Everything is $50-$600 per share now?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:35 | 3012834 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Volume shows the way the real economy is going: backwards.

When a country grows, so grows the money devoted to investing/speculation and, with it, volume.

When, on the margin, the tide subsides and the economy shrinks, there is less money for the stock market.

The bad thing for traders is that the universe of stocks suitable for trading is drying up. Less and less stocks show a decent volume to be good short-term trading instruments. Slippage for modest volume (i.e. 1000 shares) is on the rise.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:30 | 3012971 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I'm not sure that this makes sense to me. Volume shows the way the real economy is going? From where I sit, there isn't anything terribly "real" about volume. Volume tells me that there is too much debt (money) running around looking for some sort of yield in a giant Ponzi scheme. The economy is going south, but there are better indicators than volume. Now this could be the tide going out before the tsunami hits the market, I'll by that, but it's separate, I believe, from the economy.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:37 | 3012839 youngman
youngman's picture

But...But...But...the retail investor is is what killed I would think some bonus´s will be lower this year...and the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg might see a cut too in their no one is watching...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:39 | 3012842 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yet FarceBerg volume was over double normal at 124M.

Up 8% too. LOL...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:45 | 3012855 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

could these figures be skewed by all the volume that's moved off the exchange?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:45 | 3012858 n.d.v.
n.d.v.'s picture

If the volume is so light, where did all the HFT algos go?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:49 | 3012867 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

the HFTs started to pick each other off?  Not sure, but that's my guess.  Algos and HFTs require "real" market participants to be a worthwhile endeavour I am thinking.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:52 | 3012879 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

No host, no parasite.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:50 | 3013550 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...yeah, and the parasite killed the host. Homeland Security, bla haa haa. Yeah, the new world order, umm, death. 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:15 | 3012937 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They don't really have to go anywhere based on composition, if the humans decline enough. The question in my mind is what is the increase in algos over the time period between 96 and now. Because there were no algos back then, or negligable, right? So the added algos would be subtracted, and then you would have a true measure of human trading difference, and it would probably be absurd.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:46 | 3012859 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Is the term "cash on the sidelines" still in vogue at my favourite business network?  I haven't turned them on in a while

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:47 | 3012862 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Folks preparing for the Mayan New Year, obv

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:49 | 3012869 Cangoroo
Cangoroo's picture

Hey, frightening. Window dressing season should be there.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:49 | 3012865 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Notice me this: Despite record low volumes, no WS bank/broker-dealer is going broke, losing money or even complaining. Could it be that profits are untethered from actual revenue? And who do ya think might be filling in the huge, yawning gap? 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:04 | 3012920 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My guess is the banks are living fine off the 40 bil a month from the fed, soon to be 85 bil. They are probably doing great with their credit card and auto loan business. If there are any loans going sour they are just handing them off to the fed. They don't need to rely on trading revenue or volume or market related revenue anymore. Granted with that business model the banks probably only need about 20% of their employees to keep the doors open while they get hammered in the back room. Good deal for those who make the cut.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:22 | 3012952 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

U got it, fonz. No need for actual business models anymore, not when you suckin of the govie teet. It's a riskless system where the winners are those with the best connections and the least amount of exposure to real markets

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:32 | 3012976 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It is a brutal situation for the bank execs and even more so for the fed. All the effort that gets expended by the fed to explain in great depth how QE is stimulative for the economy and the middle class. The testimony....the Q&A...all those public moments and not once has any of them burst out laughing. Not one of them has had those giggles that turn into gut busting laughter as they tow the same line month after month. Not one behind the scenes high five between a fed head and a big bank CEO. These guys deserve an award.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:44 | 3013151 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Sorry Rocky, my bad. By the way, as far as volume is concerned....where do dark pools fall into th mix?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:47 | 3013159 Orly
Orly's picture

Actually, it can be either one.

"Toe the line" means to stay in-bounds and "tow the line" means to carry their water.  Both are appropriate.


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:00 | 3013198 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks Orly. I sent this vid out a few times. Yen and EKM got a kick out of it I think. Maybe you have seen it. If not it is a fun 15 mins.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:47 | 3013293 Orly
Orly's picture

Thanks, fonz. That was very interesting. :D

I suppose the day trading robots are concerned with entanglement theory is the day we jump the shark. It seems we've jumped the shark.


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:36 | 3013134 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

It is still early in the cycle. There are going to be many going under in the bd business. The business model is completely broken right now. Most broker dealer's function on transactions and there just aren't near as many transactions occurring across the entirety.

Knight Capital is being bought out or bailed out? That is a big heads up imo. That might also account for the low trading volume.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:48 | 3012866 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

Middle class Americans don't care anything about volume.  All they know is what they see on their 401K statement.  As long as that's OK, then everything is OK.  That's what all these stock market shenanigans amount to--making sure suburbanites can look at that statement and it looks OK.  Anyone disagree with this?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:50 | 3012874 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I do NOT disagree.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:59 | 3012910 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I have no opinion...but what is the definition of OK ?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:41 | 3013144 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

OK = "similar to whatever it was yesterday"

The older folks (generally the only ones with any money) are afraid to cash out because they remember the late '70s into the early '80s.  We're in a somewhat different period, and it's not the best time for buy-and-hold large cap stuff, but old brains calcify--it gets progressively harder to readjust your way of thinking as you age.

That volume chart makes perfect sense to me.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:37 | 3013138 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Bernanke stated as much.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:50 | 3012872 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Let’s hope it’s the new normal. In the end, the only effective way to defeat Wall Street is to walk away. Without our money and trading action, they are nothing.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:59 | 3012907 DavyRoySixPack
DavyRoySixPack's picture

Market is a 100 year old colon that has sank, dropped and very irritated and swollen and nothing can get through it - hence volume is way down. Bernanke's quantitative laxitives are having diminshed results. What we need is some Kombucha and some serious fasting along with minerals and such.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:06 | 3012925 chebetts
chebetts's picture

my mullet still flows like a natural spring, I wonder where the tie in to all this is?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:29 | 3012970 DavyRoySixPack
DavyRoySixPack's picture

my narcissistic mullet and my spring are tied to the universal vibrations of cosmic financial flows ... 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:11 | 3012934 fukidontknow
Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:19 | 3012944 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

nothing to see here people ... just "normal" market activity.   *cough*

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:28 | 3012964 negative rates
Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:34 | 3012982 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Kitco charts suck.  They are notorious for bad ticks.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:32 | 3013127 akak
akak's picture

Jon Nadler, of course, being by far the largest bad tick of all.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:02 | 3013200 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Jon "Nadless" Nadler is a leech.  Why this guy still has a job is beyond my comprehension.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:05 | 3013210 akak
akak's picture

No, Rocky, Nadless is far worse than a mere leech --- at least most of the leeches I have had to pull off myself have never had the nerve, unlike Nadler, to try convincing me that their parasitism was somehow to my own benefit.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:28 | 3012968 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re. Today was the lowest Monday-after-Thanksgiving Day NYSE volume since 1996!


So what? Unless, of course, we're referring to 1996 BC - in which case, then yes, we might have a problem.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:34 | 3012980 DavyRoySixPack
DavyRoySixPack's picture

Your Avatar - Watched "The Prisoner" many times in the late 70's ... looking back it is quite a parody about what seems to be our own situation with these gate keepers called the Keynesian s.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:57 | 3013036 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

I will not be filed, briefed, debriefed, indexed or numbered. My life is my own. i am not a number, I am a free man!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:18 | 3013098 DavyRoySixPack
DavyRoySixPack's picture

Number 6! ... OK .. he did finally escape .... what the heck was the BALL all about .....? ... crazy Brits .

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:21 | 3013105 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

'Rover' the guard dog!

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:34 | 3013114 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

The Prisoner, entire of episode 17, the last one, named ~


[REALLY worth watching ~ for the last 6 years, only fragments of the last episode, with French or Italian subtitles, have existed. Bless whoever raided the BBC archives and uploaded! GodSpeed Black Emperor!]

Was shown the entire series at age 12... best edumacation a monies could buy. People forget the fucking weird ape creature at the end, they really do, as a direct allegory for what we're all told our "inner #1 is". (36.30).

And they certainly miss the point of the series. "All you need is love"



Nowadays: I'm guessing Honey-Boo-Boo really isn't having the same awareness creation.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 15:23 | 3014991 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

i love that little smirk on his face as they're walking through the tunnel of jukeboxes.

all the world's a stage

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:20 | 3013103 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:35 | 3013135 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

The Prisoner is not a parody.


It's an allegory.


Wise up.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:39 | 3012990 nmewn
nmewn's picture

What happened to the Squidity?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:02 | 3013049 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

It's kinda fun to "find waldo" amongst the charts - waldo being the algos that run things irrespective of performance outlook.


Volume was down today as compared to the last two weeks - nonetheless we are likely headed up higher - as ridiculous at this sounds and based on rubbish future potential.  Go waldo.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:03 | 3013055 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

***Watch your ass on gold or get ready to buy,but golds on special deals right now.

Kitcos gold lease rate just went to negative -0.45% for one year lease and the 6 month.

When this happens gold gets nailed all the time,cause the bankers get paid to lease the central banks gold,and then it gets sold to keep prices down.

The Central banks get to keep the same leased out gold on thier books too,even though the bullion banks sell it outright.

Fucking ponzi

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:07 | 3013067 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

All months on silver lease rates just went to 0.00%

All gold lease rate months just went negative big time....

Something cooking....

Watch out.....***

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:30 | 3013123 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

Can you explain

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:48 | 3013166 Orly
Orly's picture

Sounds like a giant "risk-off" cascade is a-comin'.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:26 | 3013115 ekm
ekm's picture

I was just told by a wise person that I was having "press fatigue".


That's what's happening.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 21:49 | 3013171 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

What is press fatigue? EKM you see that HFT vid I sent last week? Pretty cool eh?

I think you have a very interesting viewpoint with liquidity and the fed buying everything. I think about it often and I struggle with it. FWIW what I find interesting about you is you seem surprised by the whole orwellian aspect of what is going on. My guess is that having lived through it, you have a very hard time considering that you could wind up in the same quicksand again. I don't blame you for that. I hope we avoid it.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:14 | 3013309 ekm
ekm's picture

He described "press fatigue" as resigning to the news and accepting them, hence consuming the news, not challenging the news. He said that that's what the newsmakers actually want, they we consume the news, not challenge them. It's like marketing of products.

The video was too, too cool.


My ideas came from Flow vs Stock articles on ZH. There's always a limit to anything, inlcuding buying of securities. It never collapses gradullay. It always pops.


I've always said that: Slavery is a choice. Seeing the boom in gun sales, I don't think americans would like to become slaves, at least the  50% of them.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:21 | 3013360 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Good stuff ekm. agreed about the guns. i agree with doc engali though when he wondered who they would point them at when things got bad.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:25 | 3013377 ekm
ekm's picture

I'd see it differently. They are a deterent to avoid that things get bad.

Let me give an example.

Question: Why do we lock the doors?

Normal Answer: So thieves do not steel (wrong answer).


Correct Answer: We lock the doors so HONEST PEOPLE do not get tempted to steal. Thieves will always steel if they wanted. A lock on the door won't prevent them from stealing.

That's what the guns are, a lock on the door.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:29 | 3013391 Orly
Orly's picture

"We lock the doors so HONEST PEOPLE do not get tempted to steal."

And it is why Muslim women must wear burkhas, so honest men won't be tempted to rape them?

Are you feeling okay?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:30 | 3013392 ekm
ekm's picture

It's not the same, come on.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:32 | 3013397 Orly
Orly's picture

You never need a deterrent to prevent honest people from doing crimes.  But since I have discovered that you're Russian, I can see the connection.

Dostoyevsky had much to say on this topic.


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:33 | 3013399 ekm
ekm's picture

Not Russian, but Dostoyevsky is great.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:39 | 3013415 Orly
Orly's picture

Like Tolstoy, he tended to drone on and on and on.  Very dull.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:42 | 3013422 ekm
ekm's picture

Oh, I get the point.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:59 | 3013462 DavyRoySixPack
DavyRoySixPack's picture

I enjoyed "War and Peace" - of course I was stuck seomplace for a month with nothing else to do. Tolstoy stretched me .. a man who ate nothing but Kimis "fermented goat milk" .... left all of his money to his family before he died ..... and lived the life of a simpelton

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:21 | 3013359 ekm
ekm's picture

I have a theoretical case.

DOW has 30 stocks, I'd say an average of 70 billion each capitalization. Hence all Dow let's assume is 25 trillion dollars. Let's assume that 15 trillion were already owned. Hence again assumption, 10 trillion dollars of shares were floating.

The Fed has printed ....6 trillion so far? 10 trillion? How much is in "reserve"?


But... how is money created by the Fed? Answer: By buying, only by buying. If there's nothing to buy, the Fed cannot create money.

In theory, Fed + Primary dealers can "acquire" the whole DOW.......which is wait.......probably true or getting pretty close to being true.


Only God can create infinite things, human can't.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:26 | 3013382 Orly
Orly's picture

It may be that you're seriously over-thinking this thing, hoss.


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:29 | 3013387 ekm
ekm's picture


But, it's happening. I only envisoned an ideal theoretical case.

And it practically is happening in Russia.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:30 | 3013394 Orly
Orly's picture

Oh, you're Russian?  That's lovely.  Where from?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:32 | 3013396 ekm
ekm's picture

No, no.

From Albania.

I am very curious. Read a lot and talk to a lot of people.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:38 | 3013414 Orly
Orly's picture

Oh, I see.  Not Russian.  I meant no offence.  :D

Anyway, the purpose of the US central bank creating credits is to give to our failed banks who can then buy whtever they want with it.  It is not an infinite amount of money, so saying that the Federal Reserve is being like God is not accurate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a weighted index of 30 stocks.  Being weighted means that the numbers are skewed and can be made to look like whatever they want it to look like.  A far better measure of US equity performance is the SPX, or the Standard and Poors 500 Index.  It has 500 stocks in it, so it is far more accurate than the Dow30.


Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:47 | 3013419 ekm
ekm's picture

That's what I meant actually. It's not infinite.

It's limited by the assets available to buy.

I think there is little volume because not much is available for trading. Most of the stock is devoured by flow and rests in inventory.


In communism, the gov had practically purchased everything. There is zero trading. I mentioned Russia, because Putin is buying up everything again, it seems to me.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:52 | 3013449 Orly
Orly's picture

But as far as I know, our central banks haven't bought stocks directly.  They are having the giant banks do it by proxy.  So there are plenty of shares available to trade in our markets but it takes two sides to make a trade: a bid and an ask.

Their shares are posted on the "ask" side of the equation but no one is taking the "bid" part of it.  There are two reasons for this, I think...

First, most retail traders, who used to trade stocks during the day, are mostly all gone because no one trusts these markets.  The other part of that equation, too, is the people who had their money in 401k plans- like a pension fund- have taken their money out and put it into bonds, so there isn't that much money to trade on the bid side.

Second, everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop, which means that we all know that something bad is about to happen and we do not want to be the last ones holding the bag when everyone runs for the door.  This should happen very soon, by the way, because the charts of SPX look almost exactly like they did just before the tumble in 2008.  No one wants to bid on stocks now because, even if the price goes a little higher, it can go a lot lower a lot faster.

The downside risk out-weighs the upside reward here.  So everyone is just waiting.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:02 | 3013464 ekm
ekm's picture

I actually see Fed + Primary Dealers as one entity.


I do not think though that any of the money from pension funds is ever coming back since those guys have already lost a lot and are retiring or about to retire. They are all scared that the least productive part of their lives will outlive the money.

The younger generation has no money, hence I do not think that any significant bid can come from retail.

So, my conclusion: Nobody's waiting, hence that's the problem, there is no bid.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:02 | 3013472 Orly
Orly's picture

Well, either way, the markets rely on momentum to operate.  They are always looking for the greater fool to buy something they know is so high already.

With momentum stalled, there is only the other direction to go.  Down.  We are all waiting to see if this happens.

Do you trade stocks or something else?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:09 | 3013483 ekm
ekm's picture

I traded a lot and lost a lot. When I slowed down to find out why I lost, that's how all started, in 2008.

Then I made a lot, then I lost a lot and then I made a lot and then I slowed down again.

Tried options and got killed. Have had a lot of success with HOD on TSX.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:20 | 3013503 Orly
Orly's picture

Options.  Yes, that's how I got killed the first time, too.  In 2006, which was actually the beginning of the Fed taking over the markets because I would play put options on SPY but the thing never went down.  All year, it never went down.

That's when I knew something was off.

Anyway, now I trade in the foreign exchange.  It is very challenging and fun.  Still treading water and not making much, as can be expected because the Feds are all over the markets, even in Europe.  But I'm doing okay.

Maybe you should try that.  Just go with a reputable broker and stay out of the brokers in Cyprus.  Stay out of Cyprus.  See if there is IBFX available to you.  They are the fairest and the best, I think.


Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:02 | 3013469 DavyRoySixPack
DavyRoySixPack's picture

Yes, and so markets will always go up with this ... "price inflation of equities" no matter the returns ....

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:03 | 3013474 ekm
ekm's picture

Not necessarily agree. Who's going to buy?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:20 | 3013237 realtick
realtick's picture

That looks like AAPL's quarterly EPS chart.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 22:51 | 3013307 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

Volume shows the way the real economy is going: backwards.

When a country grows, so grows the money devoted to investing/speculation and, with it, volume.

When, on the margin, the tide subsides and the economy shrinks, there is less money for the stock market.

The bad thing for traders is that the universe of stocks suitable for trading is drying up. Less and less stocks show a decent volume to be good short-term trading instruments. Slippage for modest volume (i.e. 1000 shares) is on the rise.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 23:37 | 3013412 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

crazy silver action happened on close in NY today caught here

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 00:04 | 3013468 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I didn't look at volumes while the market was open, but I did notice that bid for one (what used to be a fairly liquid) stock visibly dropped just 1-2 seconds after I bought a block and was surprised to see the HFT freak show in action there and then.
Shit, if this trend continues my short positions will keep sinking together with my long positions.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 01:58 | 3013624 SheepleRUs
SheepleRUs's picture

So HFT's take vacation too???  I thought they brought liquidity to the market??  What a joke.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 17:46 | 3015461 Ben Dover
Ben Dover's picture

When looking at campaign donations, comparing 2008 to 2012, Obama had a lot of investment banking support in 08. Pretty much all of that switched to Romney. Obama's slack was at least partially taken up by tech like google. Is this a sign that bank/investment folk are pulling their money out anticipating a per trade tax or are they gearing up for the collapse of the stock market and moving their collective cash into the next great scam?


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