We Have A New New New Greek Deal - Full Details And Live Webcast

Tyler Durden's picture

The words commitment, support, hard-work, and reform are popular among these talking heads. Here are the details and the press conference - though do NOT try and use your calculator.

As Lagarde adds: "The initiatives include Greek debt buybacks, return of Securities Market Programme (SMP) profits to Greece, reduction of Greek Loan Facility (GLF) interest rates, significant extension of GLF and European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) maturities, and the deferral of EFSF interest rate payments."

 

Basic provisions (via Citi's Steve Englander) are:

1)     About EUR 35bn to be paid out to Greece in December, about EUR9 bn in three Q1 tranches

2)     Greece still has to meet some conditions and pass a tax reform and fulfill conditions on buyback but goal seems to be to have December 13 final decision on disbursement

3)     Greek debt to be reduced to 124% of GDP by 2020, in absolute terms, ambition is to cut Greek debt by EUR40-45bn.

4)     Rates on official loans to Greece are cut; ECB returns profits on Greek bonds bought at a discount and paid at face value

5)     Offer to buy back debt at 35 cents on the EUR

6)     EFSF defer interest payments for 10 years and extends loan maturities by 15 years

7)     No forgiveness on face value of official loans (but lower rates would imply an NPV cut)

8)     Additional debt relief possible down the road if Greece meets austerity targets

9)     Some rumors of a further write-down down the road if Greece complies with austerity program

10)  Many additional avenues of possible help to Greece, contingent on austerity, are being mooted

11)  Greece has to sequester revenues in advance to meet debt servicing needs

 

Live Webcast:

 

27 November 2012 Eurogroup statement on Greece

The Eurogroup recalls that a full staff-level agreement has been reached between Greece and the Troika on updated programme conditionality and that, according to the Troika, Greece has implemented all agreed prior actions.

The Eurogroup in particular welcomes the updated assessment of the Troika that Greece has implemented in a satisfactory manner a wide ranging set of reforms, as well as the budget for 2013 and an ambitious medium term fiscal strategy 2013-16.

The Eurogroup noted with satisfaction that the updated programme conditionality includes the adoption by Greece of new instruments to enhance the implementation of the programme, notably by means of correction mechanisms to safeguard the achievement of both fiscal and privatisation targets, and by stronger budgeting and monitoring rules. Greece has also significantly strengthened the segregated account for debt servicing. Greece will transfer all privatizations revenues, the targeted primary surpluses as well as 30% of the excess primary surplus to this account, to meet debt service payment on a quarterly forward-looking basis. Greece will also increase transparency and provide full ex ante and ex post information to the EFSF/ESM on transactions on the segregated account.

The Eurogroup again commended the authorities for their demonstrated strong commitment to the adjustment programme and reiterated its appreciation for the efforts made by the Greek citizens. The Eurogroup noted that the outlook for the sustainability of Greek government debt has worsened compared to March 2012 when the second programme was concluded, mainly on account of a deteriorated macro-economic situation and delays in programme implementation The Eurogroup considered that the necessary revision in the fiscal targets and the implied postponement of a primary surplus target of 4.5% of GDP from 2014 to 2016 calls for a broader concept of debt sustainability encompassing lower debt levels in the medium term, smoothing of the current financing hump after 2020 and easing of its financing.

The Eurogroup was informed that Greece is considering certain debt reduction measures in the near future, which may involve public debt tender purchases of the various categories of sovereign obligations. If this is the route chosen, any tender or exchange prices are expected to be no higher than those at the close on Friday, 23 November 2012.

The Eurogroup considers that, in recapitalising Greek banks, liability management exercises should be conducted in respect of remaining subordinated debt holders so as to ensure a fair burden sharing.

Against this background and after having been reassured of the authorities' resolve to carry the fiscal and structural reform momentum forward and with a positive outcome of the possible debt buy-back operation, the euro area Member States would be prepared to consider the following initiatives:

A lowering by 100 bps of the interest rate charged to Greece on the loans provided in the context of the Greek Loan Facility. Member States under a full financial assistance programme are not required to participate in the lowering of the GLF interest rates for the period in which they receive themselves financial assistance.

  • A lowering by 10 bps of the guarantee fee costs paid by Greece on the EFSF loans.
  • An extension of the maturities of the bilateral and EFSF loans by 15 years and a deferral of interest payments of Greece on EFSF loans by 10 years. These measures will not affect the creditworthiness of EFSF, which is fully backed by the guarantees from Member States.
  • A commitment by Member States to pass on to Greece's segregated account, an amount equivalent to the income on the SMP portfolio accruing to their national central bank as from budget year 2013. Member States under a full financial assistance programme are not required to participate in this scheme for the period in which they receive themselves financial assistance.

The Eurogroup stresses, however, that the above-mentioned benefits of initiatives by euro area Member States would accrue to Greece in a phased manner and conditional upon a strong implementation by the country of the agreed reform measures in the programme period as well as in the post-programme surveillance period.

The Eurogroup is confident that, jointly, the above-mentioned initiatives by Greece and the other euro area Member States would bring Greece's public debt back on a sustainable path throughout this and the next decade and will facilitate a gradual return to market financing. Euro area Member States will consider further measures and assistance, including inter alia lower co-financing in structural funds and/or further interest rate reduction of the Greek Loan Facility, if necessary, for achieving a further credible and sustainable reduction of Greek debt-to-GDP ratio, when Greece reaches an annual primary surplus, as envisaged in the current MoU, conditional on full implementation of all conditions contained in the programme, in order to ensure that by the end of the IMF programme in 2016, Greece can reach a debt-to-GDP ratio in that year of 175% and in 2020 of 124% of GDP, and in 2022 a debt-to-GDP ratio substantially lower than 110%. As was stated by the Eurogroup on 21 February 2012, we are committed to providing adequate support to Greece during the life of the programme and beyond until it has regained market access, provided that Greece fully complies with the requirements and objectives of the adjustment programme.

The Eurogroup concludes that the necessary elements are now in place for Member States to launch the relevant national procedures required for the approval of the next EFSF disbursement, which amounts to EUR 43.7 bn. EUR 10.6 bn for budgetary financing and EUR 23.8 bn in EFSF bonds earmarked for bank recapitalisation will be paid out in December. The disbursement of the remaining amount will be made in three sub-tranches during the first quarter of 2013, linked to the implementation of the MoU milestones (including the implementation of the agreed tax reform by January) to be agreed by the Troika.

The Eurogroup expects to be in a position to formally decide on the disbursement by 13 December, subject to the completion of these national procedures and following a review of the outcome of a possible debt buy-back operation by Greece.

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DavidC's picture

In other words, complete bollocks...

DavidC

vast-dom's picture

Magic that you can't believe in!

Central Bankster's picture

The problem is that the market expects that every bailout is 100% guaranteed at this point.  The central planners can ONLY disapoint or meet expectations.  Everything good priced in, everything bad not discounted.  Thats why this market is within 3 months of entering a 3 year bear market.

kliguy38's picture

Of course that is the game. But the real question which they cannot forecast is just how bad the "real" economy gets. That is they're real concern. They can manage the paper game, but the pitchfork and torch crowd is they're real concern. If I am right they will have to pull out Plan B.....not the contraception....but the flush....and it is designed to overwhelm any torch and pitchfork crowd with pure fear and panic..gl

flacon's picture

"These measures will not affect the creditworthiness of EFSF, which is fully backed by the guarantees from [bankrupt] Member States."

walküre's picture

I just don't understand WHY? It's completely laughable and yet, they give us one performance worse than the last.

124% debt/GDP by 2024 now.

DavidC's picture

I'd love to know how that got a mark down - whoever it was, please tell me why...

DavidC

fonzannoon's picture

Lots of new names and faces on here lately David. Most of them seem like welcome additions. Some feces too.

 

Just Ice's picture

A few European elitists seem to roam ZH, downmarking any posts that may be construed as negative against their beloved POS zero, er, euro.  But for the euro, the national bond and currency markets of all these individually troubled countries would've pulled things back in line before they totally went over the edge into the black hole of depression so it is a self-made euro-currency created crisis, (totally crushing many average citizens while the elites continue with meetings large for much hand wringing).  Now, the whole world, via IMF, as well as Euro zone countries that better managed their affairs, are called upon, repeatedly, to pay the price for past (and in some cases continuing) wasteful and irresponsible governments and bank largesse.  That debts racked up by their neighbors would not be shared responsibility was a condition many Euro zone countries understood to be the case in joining the euro to begin with.  Now their taxpayers are saddled with the reality of neverending bailouts as they are, indeed, stuck with those debts in addition to their own.  IMF should walk and stop participating in the farce so long as the ludicrous euro currency structure remains in place.  Freedom of trade and travel did not need a common currency in order to take place in Europe;  further, the euro could've simply been developed as a "reserve" type currency to be used in international and cross-border trade and transactions rather than as replacement of national currencies.  Its role would've expanded based upon natural demand in the marketplace without governments in essence being able to become dependents of other nations through the euro umbilical. 

Ghordius's picture

bollocks. one downvote in the original "bollocks" and all this noise about "euro elitists"?

you talk about a "self-made euro-currency created crisis" and a "ludicrous euro currency structure"

what you fail to see is how this current crisis would have looked like without the EUR

what are the Danes and the Swiss currently doing? pegging to the EUR

what was the last response to a currency war? a currency grid

so what is this "ludicrous ... structure"? a preemtive currency grid

as Bastiat said, there is the seen and the unseen

gjp's picture

I'll wager a few trillion of your fiat garbage of choice that the upcoming US fiscal cliff 'solution' will be immeasurably more preposterous.

Buck Johnson's picture

I didn't want to read all that bluff because essentially it's something to jawbone and buy a few more months until they have to think of another thing. 

Lore's picture

It takes special talent to sound that arrogant with that much mud on their faces.

exartizo's picture

simply... blatant money printing in The Guise Of A Bailout.

Sam Clemons's picture

I'm still left wondering why governments should be allowed to borrow at all...  Let's cut up the sovereign credit card so people can go back to their lives.

Lore's picture

Governments borrow to serve the lenders. Nice work if you can get it.

ghengis86's picture

Hahahaha !!!!

They're so serial this time!!

vote_libertarian_party's picture

Futures shoot up...uhh...  .2%

 

Well, good thing that is fixed forever.

 

Next problem for fixin'?

Cangoroo's picture

Kicking the can

rubearish10's picture

More like kickin' a bowling ball!

Winston Churchill's picture

Elevated to an Olympic event.This takes platinum cajones to bluff the

markets with this alphacrap soup of myriad Ponzi schemes.

mccoyspace's picture

I'm glad to know there is nothing to worry about comrades.

chump666's picture

Poor Greeks.

Their fate in the hands of madmen.

chump666's picture

 All of us.

It's just the Greeks are getting boned without Vaseline in a public spectacle.

TrustWho's picture

Fuck, who is knocking on the ECB door? Ireland, Cypress and Portugal. Tell them the Greeks were better negotiators. Old contract obligations are expected to be executed as previously agreed unless you have Russian mafia connections....my apologies Cypress. 

1000924014093's picture

What does a crappy fusion hip hop band have to do with anything?

Cangoroo's picture

Maturity Monday, March the 17th, 2456

whoknoz's picture

you are welcome to eat my hamburger today and pay me on the first Tuesday of 2024...

mkhs's picture

Would the second Tuesday of next week be okay?

q99x2's picture

BTFD Greece is not going to default. Sure took them long enough to make up their minds.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Are the irish paying attention?

BlueCollaredOne's picture

TPTB realize that only .1% of the population actually pay attention to economic policy and they use that to their advantage. The average citizen knows nothing of the absurdity that is now taking place.

This will continue until people wake up to the situation they are presented with is not their fault. Of course this will never happen because one day we will be more worried about finding our next meal, as opposed to trying to figure out why things are the way they are.

It's going to fun to witness this all go down. I print a few ZH articles a day so when shit really does hit the fan, at least I can say I told you so to all the people who still think I'm a "conspiracy theorist"

Bohm Squad's picture

Unfortunately, people will not seek out why they're in a particular situation because the reason will be supplied to and for them.

 

Go long evil speculators or equivalent...

BlueCollaredOne's picture

Or, the answer supplied to the people will be something that benefits the power structure.

For example, with Iran accepting oil for gold, this could possibly disrupt the hegemony that the dollar has on oil. When it costs more dollars to buy oil, Americans can be led to believe "that those Iranians need to be taught a lesson."

How about food prices rising in the future. Americans could be led to believe that the reason food is expensive is that farmers are gouging them, and that corporations like Monsanto are the answer with cheap food.

The future is going to be filled with examples of the government riding in on a white horse, with the blackest of insides.

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

The average ~8-14% empty retail on high-streets is a bit of a give-away, especially when a remaining 40% is "Poundland" and "Cash for gold".[1] The "Common Man" knows what's going on, even if they can't express it in macro-economic terms.

Two years ago I warned my (then) 9 employees of what was coming, and I'm happy that they & their families are insulated from it so far (in the short term, at least).

p.s. fucking love your blue steel look

 

[1]EU hasn't had the "advanced Walmart effect", so not sure if this is the same in US high-street.

BlueCollaredOne's picture

You see glass half full, I see glass half empty. I'm sure we could each learn from each other.

By the way, I showed my girlfriend your response and, before clicking on your hyperlink I told her it was going to be a youtube video of Derek doing his trademark gaze. After clicking on it her response was "Did you somehow respond to yourself?"

Birds of a feather.

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

A fairer test would be to actually sit down with her and watch the movie first.

These ain't smart moves; or rather - serious warning. Sharks around here do this stuff in their sleep; I do this reflexively without even bothering to read your reply. I took one look at your Avatar and hit the link without even bothering to look at what you'd written, as the implicit meme linkage is assumed.

There's a reason why GS calls their spots "Muppets".

 

#DeliberatelyBeingNiceJustToProveAPointCauseIfYouGoIntoTheMarketLikeThisYou'reFuckingBoned

 

Serious point: Most, if not all, serious market players can do the Times or Telegraph crossword (hint - there's a formula to it). It's how we all read the papers, and every media piece is in a code. Or they do their equivalent Geographic alternative. If you're impressed with a single throw-a-way youtube link, STOP and get the fuck outta finance. If you can parse a link three deep into about six multiple meanings, and grasp what's actually being said...  then you can start. Otherwise run. the. fuck. away.

ZH looks shiny and fresh when you first read it, then if you get an inkling it looks insightful and deep, and then when you know the market it looks jaded and dark, reeling in the newbies long after the action's gone down. Then you think it's total shit, and worthless, 'cause you know the gossip and market much fresher and easier and ye gods, fucking racist idiots, but you still check it just in case. Then, when you know the scandals before they happen, and you're too shit scared to talk about them apart from anonymously... ZH will catch it and spare you the boot, as ZH is all "bollocks" and an anonymous email to them [proxy bitch, proxy] will cover your arse.

ZH is not your friend: it's a cynical joke fest, and most of the real readers never comment (as they're at work, and they all denounce ZH as bollocks, while still reading it), but we all keep a tab on it just in case. If you spot someone like me being overly genuine? Run. A. Way. Either we're drunk or selling something. We can be genuine, but there's always 1/2/3 levels of translation you need to it.

 

Oh, and if this is a "Big Reddit Fakeout" [yep, noted the dialect], don't think you're smart ~ simply think I'm being nice. The rest of the peeps here would just rip your balls off the first time you entered a trade. And then laugh at the newbie getting an education. Reddit is below a playschool when it comes to ZH. 4chan is below a teenager. And so on, I'm sure you get it.

 

That's why a cyncial joke about eating humans gets me +upvotes than a meagre tinkling insight into an small industry tip. Colosseum, rah! rah! rah!

 

Lions, Tigers and Bears. Don't forget it ~ there's posters here working $millions. They ain't going to play nice, Mr. Man. It's all bullshit unless there's no money at stake ~ and then we're just playing for testosterone balls and honing skills for real world negotiations, or shooting shit, or (scary) getting in touch with the things money can't touch (where's Yen for a comment here). When you're reading something that's not finance related, know that most of the readers don't care about it. If it's about money then everyone has an angle. So, yeah. I guess "cats" are safe here, barring everyone marketing to China (cymbol tush).

 

[Coda ~ until you hit the super-secret levels, where there's acutally a nice level of respect, and Ms Aura etc talk to you. Don't expect that though, this isn't /gonewild]

TraderTimm's picture

Well written, Aurora. Reminds me of the actual trading floor where men would shout their asses off and punch you in the face for 'taking' a trade from a whale pushing big paper. Even if you got it, you poisoned the pool and wouldn't get anything else. Sobering to not get hit when you're three feet away - but his buddy gets his just fine.

I don't miss the psychopathic part, the "rip your balls off for money" bit. This is also not the part where I claim to be a great person. I'm a flawed human being like anyone else. You sure sell the steely-gaze-fuck-someone-and-their-mother-too persona, I'll give you that.

The only thing that depresses me about ZH is how long it needs to chronicle what essentially is the same scenario, we're just in iteration 34 of a long loop that doesn't look like it is unwinding any time soon. Do I wish ZH to stop? No, not really, it is a soundingboard where I feel more sane here than listening to the TV bobbleheads.

Everybody has an agenda, yeah - we know. It isn't who is the best cold bastard - though you'd think so from reading what you wrote. There are better things to aspire to. Sure, get your "Fuck You" money and rule the world. I'll settle for making the whole thing irrelevant.

As for the masters-of-the-universe making their billions and swearing up-and-down that they don't read ZH - just remember, you can be made obsolete too.

 

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

It's the one's whose angle you can't figure out you need to be scared of...

Ghordius's picture

Aurora, very interesting, would you be so kind to translate for me this piece of jargon: "[1]EU hasn't had the "advanced Walmart effect", so not sure if this is the same in US high-street"

Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Traditonally in the EU/UK, the super/hyper-markets are (essentially) regulated at the local (planning) and national levels in the % of market share they can take from the high street, meaning a far more varied high street ecology (even if most of those are merely subsidaries of the same companies). SME's still existed as 'viable', until 2008, they died off in droves during 2010, and now even the larger chains are gasping (GAME, all sports stores, etc etc). My 8-14% figure isn't my own, it's proper research; more-over, the empty glass fronts in every town (barring Capitals) are extremely obvious.

 

The flip side to this is that WalMart killed off Malls & SMEs a lot earlier for the US, I think?

Ghordius's picture

thanks. the UK case is still a bit extreme, in the EU context. lots of SME's still populating main street on the continent, with variations from country to country