Durable Goods Come In Stronger Than Expected, Sandy Not Blamed

Tyler Durden's picture


With most pundits expecting a weak Durable Goods report today from the month of October, it was only logical that the final print would come better than expected. Sure enough, the October headline durable goods printed at 0.0%, on expectations of a -0.7% decline from a downward revised September 9.2%. It was in the non-volatile Ex-Transportation index that saw a pick up of 1.5%, missing modestly the expectations of a 2.0% print, and down from 1.7% last month. From an investment standpoint,  Capital Goods Orders nondefense ex-aircraft rose 1.7% on expectations of a drop to -0.5%, up from a downward revised -0.4%. One wonders just what seasonal adjustment factors were used in this particular data set which saw the NSA data drop from $63.1 billion last month to $61.8 billion currently. Needless to say, inventories of manufactured durable goods, having increased 33 of the past 34 month, just hit an all time high of $374.4 billion, rising 0.4% in the month, following a 0.2% increase in the month ago.

That said, we eagerly await the confidence pundits to blame today's better than expected durable goods data on Sandy, the same way every other data series which has come in weaker than expected in the past months has been "explained away." We may be waiting for a while.

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Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:44 | 3013963 GetZeeGold
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When do the revisions come out?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:48 | 3013971 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

please define "durable goods" for what it means these days...

I bet they don't mean gold and silver...

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:58 | 3014488 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i'd also like to know why this article shows a positive print for non defense capital goods orders ex aircraft and the one above it claims an 8% decline for the same index.  what gives?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:49 | 3013973 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

A 0.0% print?!?!



Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:50 | 3013977 ekm
ekm's picture

Wow, wow, wow.

What kind of products is USA making that could be rated as DURABLE?


Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:55 | 3013989 Jason T
Jason T's picture

making?  You mean selling.   We don't make things anymore.



Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:57 | 3013995 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Apparently dollar bills. Even if they are not durable they are infinite. So in that sense they are durable.

So here we are post election, back to business as usual. The charade goes on and on and on.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:01 | 3014000 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Top of the morning to you Fonz....another day another bunch of bullshit being tossed at us. I hope you aren't hung over ;->

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:13 | 3014029 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Same to you Doc. I am hangin in. Hope you are as well. I have to start going the other way with this whole thing. I can head to the gym and start finding some other interests. I spent the last few months hanging off every article and rumor. I am pretty sure it was not the healthiest few months of my life. Time to resign myself to this bizarro world. I am pretty sure once I get comfortable that should be the cue for the bottom to fall out.


Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:20 | 3014047 ekm
ekm's picture

Resign - no

Acknowledgment of reality and acting accordingly - yes

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:20 | 3014050 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That's funny..I've developed a similar attitude. I figure if I throw in the towel and slip back into the matrix then that's when the shit will fly. Problem is once you're out of the matrix it's impossible to slip back in....I see it everywhere....the deteriorating streets and neighborhoods....the lines at the church missions...more people digging through the garbage looking for valuables. I could go on and on, but I know you see it too.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:48 | 3014091 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I see it too. I can't close my eyes to it but I can come to the realization that this is a manifestation of the mass inability of the public to take the time and effort to realize why this is happening. In that sense, and it sounds crude, many people get what they ask for. I am absolutely rationalizing the pain and suffering of many people who do not deserve this fate. I just don't know how else to look at it.

What  continues to make the hair on the back of my neck stand up is the insurance companies. I truly think that Zirp is going to lead to those companies going bust. They will not be bailed out. Whatever administration is in power will say "enough is enough" and that will be the trigger for the takeover of the financial industry.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:52 | 3014161 ekm
ekm's picture

Wow. Quite an interesting exchange. I guess it's tough to accept that massive stupidity is quite normal and probably the norm.

In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs it is the rule" – Nietzsche

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:54 | 3014168 Dr. Engali
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I agree 100% on the insurance companies. They continue to scramble for cash, and  the fact they keep raising prices while decreasing benefits is killing them.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:21 | 3014053 Chump
Chump's picture

I can relate.  I'm making a concerted effort to quit worrying about "every article and rumor" as well.  What's coming is coming, and fretting is a waste of precious time.  Unless it's a banjo I'm fretting...


Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:51 | 3013978 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

obviously, fixing the broken windows help. 

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:53 | 3013985 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Broken iPhone windows.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:52 | 3013981 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Projected CNBS talking point:  The inventory build is bullish post-Sandy.  Bullshit is really not that hard.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:53 | 3013982 new game
new game's picture

if the shoe fits run with it...

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:55 | 3013990 SheepDog-One
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Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:55 | 3013991 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thank goodness for record gun sales or we would have a negative print.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:46 | 3014134 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I did my part...  bought some knives and ammo cans also...  and ammo purchases tonight maybe.  Keep stacking.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:55 | 3013992 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

The inventory of Bull Shit has reached a all-time high.

Long wadders.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:56 | 3013994 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Inventories up 33 of 34 months.... And likely more than is being reported, right? If you start with the idea that all of this is merely measured in dollars to begin with... Then recognize that most of the indicators are just projections based on limited data sets, then you factor in the places where data can be manipulated, all of the way down to the formulas and the definitions (see inflation) there really isn't much of a point to even paying attention. It's all propaganda, to one degree or another.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 13:39 | 3014618 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture


Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:01 | 3013999 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Volume today should be awesome. I put the over under at 3 shares. I am taking the under. All offers, no bids. I guess we can just hang out like this forever?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:08 | 3014020 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Awh hogwash, probably generator sales and lies.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:16 | 3014037 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

durable ain't so durable anymore. in other words shit don't last worth a fuk.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. [/Inigo Montoya]



Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:27 | 3014070 kliguy38
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If the shoe fits......THROW IT

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