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Goldman Says To Sell USDJPY: "Pain Trade Is Lower"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If this particular FX trade reco came from Tom Stolper, we would urge everyone to do the opposite with both hands and feet. However, it hasn't, and since it actually makes intuitive sense, we would urge readers to at least give it a cursory skim through.

From Goldman's Tony Song

Positioning For A USDJPY Move Lower

USDJPY has rallied 3.5% in 2 weeks on wide expectations that Abe will come into office on Dec 16 and force BOJ into aggressive monetary easing (target 2% inflation). Market as a result has seen one way demand for USDJPY higher options driving skew sharply higher to recent highs. The desk believes that there is significant risk in USDJPY in the next month given event risk (most notably Japan elections/BOJ meeting and US fiscal cliff), but the desk feel that with positions relatively stretched, holiday season looming and the long side of the equation almost solely dominated by short term spec guy that the PAIN TRADE is now likely USDJPY lower from here, at least much more so than what the vol curve currently indicates.
 
Idea: Sell 1x2 USDJPY Put Spread 82.20/81.20. Zero Cost. NY Cut. 21Dec Expiry. Spot Ref 82.20. 1BF max downside.
 
Strikes are chosen based on the concentration of stops below 81.50 (where we expect short term spec names to start throwing in the towel). This could happen if:
 
A). Abe loses election or backs off from his aggressive policy stance. (Latter more likely)
B). US gets further away from a resolution on fiscal cliff. (Baseline forecast is for a decision on Dec21 before which we will see plenty of volatility and headline risk)
C). Risk negative shocks in either Arab Springs, EU, China etc.
D). Headline shocks and choppy price action driving weary market participants into closing their books for the year and taking us to downside stops in a vicious cycle.
 
Obviously there is a big chance that USDJPY goes higher as well in which case the trade ends up flat. Entry levels are attractive (below) and this trade works well as an overlay to an existing long cash position which many people may have. Hope it’s helpful and feedback much appreciated.
 
1mth 25 delta $JPY puts trading very cheap vs. ATMs (which you’re selling)

 

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Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:27 | 3013925 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I sense a trick.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:31 | 3013930 negative rates
negative rates's picture

No trick, just zero down on a honda.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:33 | 3014096 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Let's get to the point - what does Thomas Stolper say? All else is meaningless.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:28 | 3013926 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Talk about a "pain trade", all fiats are going to ZERO.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:23 | 3014059 CPL
CPL's picture

TPTB are just making sure the horses in the glue factory are executed in the order they require.

 

Gotta save the fattest and most glue worthy for last.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:30 | 3013929 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

Fuck Goldman!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:32 | 3013934 mjorden
mjorden's picture

What other Option do I have?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:23 | 3014064 CPL
CPL's picture

Silver, gold and oil.  Only currencies worth anything now.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:33 | 3013935 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

So Goldman is buying USD/JPY, then?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:35 | 3013939 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

Goldman: You can sell the 1x2 directly to us if you so wish.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:32 | 3014077 CPL
CPL's picture

Buddy hid the bodies in his basement.  Plus the girls body in post mortum had his deposit in her, after she was dead.  (the sick fuck)

 

No sympathies at all, the evidence points to him V&ing these kids and setting up an intruder.  Be assured though that his sickness combined with his impressive arsenal will be used to move laws around on gun ownership. 

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:07 | 3014210 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

It's not politically correct to gloat about double tapping anybody, much less 'mere' trespassing burglars.  He's going down; he didn't just defend himself, he openly admitted to executing one of them.  More details in this article. 

http://www.thenorthwestern.com/viewart/20121127/OSH0101/311270243/Man-ac...|head

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:39 | 3013945 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fuck you GS...and your world domination.  Eat shit!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:45 | 3013951 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

To agree with the Devil is not always a sin

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 09:50 | 3013974 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Time to buy USDJPY?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:03 | 3014002 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

The long term play is that Japan has been dying since 03/11.

The short term play is if you increase the juice (via printing money) to the paddles, you can get a reaction that would simulate life and give hope that Japan could live again. This is played against the ability of DC to put down the crack pipes and page boys to put forth a meaningless document of reform (ala EU can kicking) to avert the fiscal cliff and put us on the path to prosperity once again (via money printing).

We have entered the realm where you are betting one country is going to devalue faster than another. So the main point of this trade is ... Can you get in and out with a profit fast enough, so that your "profits" are not devalued into an overall loss.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:04 | 3014005 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

I don't give a flying fig what Goldman SAYS.

I only care about what Goldman DOES...

 

 

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:14 | 3014031 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Abe already backed off on the printing, was Song asleep?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 13:08 | 3014512 Orly
Orly's picture

No he didn't.  I guess you weren't short about 11 o'clock last night Eastern US time...

But that ramp was short-lived and has almost completely retraced already.  The market is realising that Abe is a mouth-piece and that there is very little he can do to affect monetary policy except to jaw-bone.

His banter was shot last night; he's done.  Goldman is right; it's time to fade this move and it's a big one.  The only thing to look out for is repatriation of yen funds from overseas business at the end of the month.  Next week should be the real humdinger in the short xxxJPY pairs, especially the USDJPY and probably the EURJPY as well.

:D

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:56 | 3014476 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Fool me once shame on you, fool me 40 times, ehhh??!!

Is Tony Song really a person?? Or just a false moniker used to skim the accounts of sheep and

leave no paper trail?

Likewise Tom Stolper. Where would you go from there with a record of 0 for 20 fx calls?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 13:50 | 3014649 Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

Last time credit suisse tried to post a stunt like this on ZH only for it to blow up.

 

I have not yet seen one of these work out.. and isn't ZH all about fading the squid?

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