The Cost Of Kidding Yourself

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Mark McHugh via Across The Street blog,

Five years ago, every American would have considered a trillion-dollar budget deficit a national tragedy.  If you believe the CNBC parrot show, NOT having a trillion-dollar deficit is now a sure sign of the Apocalypse.  I speak of course of the cleverly dubbed “Fiscal Cliff,” which panicked CNBC apologists are required to mention no less than 5,000 times a day.  We’re told ad nauseam that going over the cliff will drag the US into recession.  Here’s what we’re not told: The US has been in recession 9 of the last 10 years.  It’s in recession this year, and no matter what CNBC’s financial terrorists say or the idiots on Capital Hill decide, it will most certainly be in recession in 2013.

Creating the illusion of economic growth is easy if you can print money.  It’s a prank you can play on an entire country.  Cut the value of the currency in half and the economy’s size will appear to double.  If it doesn’t, you’re in recession (whether you know it or not).   Cavemen probably understood this concept better than America’s best economic minds.

The only way to accurately measure changes in a nation’s economy is to do so relative to the world (see Notes for non-nerds below before protesting).  According to the World Bank, the U.S. represented 31.8% of the world’s economic activity in 2001.  By the end of 2011, that share had dropped to 21.6%, meaning America’s slice of the world economy is 32% smaller than it was a decade ago, and getting smaller every day.  Note that America’s housing bubble did nothing to boost the U.S. on the global stage.

As horrific as these results are, they’re better than Japan’s, whose “lost decade” proved only to be prologue for its “lost-er decade.”  Japan’s share of the world economy fell more than 35% from 2001 to 2011 (literally worse than Zimbabwe) and has now shriveled 54% from its peak.  But Japan’s real collapse did not coincide with the bursting of its stock and real estate bubbles in 1990 and 1991 respectively.  The decline actually began in 1995 when policymakers allowed government debt to exceed 90% of GDP (a milestone the U.S. quietly passed in 2010). 

The more they “fixed” it, the more it broke.  17 years later, the only thing Japan has proved is that smart Japanese economists are about as real as Godzilla.  Time and time again, the country has chosen collapse over admitting failure. On November 19, 2012, Bloomberg reported, “The Japanese government will spend 1 trillion yen ($12.3B) on a second round of fiscal stimulus as it tries to revive an economy at risk of sliding into recession.”  It would be funny if it wasn’t so tragic.

The United Kingdom gets third place in the 2001-2011 major economies’ “Race to Oblivion”, although with a less than 3.5% share of world GDP it’s hard to call this a major economy with a straight face anymore.  While the U.K. printed its way to 24% loss in world GDP, France and Brazil both passed the nation where an actual troy pound of sterling silver now costs about 235 “pounds sterling”.  With government debt expected to reach 88.7% of GDP in 2012, once-Great Britain will soon be seated at the kids’ table at economic summits, if it gets invited at all.

All three of these countries are in death spirals for the same reason:  They believe that they have the ability to avoid recession by simply printing their own money.  As America’s 100-year numbskull (and current Federal Reserve Chairman) Ben Bernanke once mused:

“…the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

True dat, Ben….unless there’s “cost” associated with turning the nation’s currency into the world’s laughing stock….

Oh wait, there is.  So just for fun, let’s project the last ten years growth rates forward another ten years:

And there you have the real New World Order (sorry Freemasons).  In ten years China’s economy will be bigger than those of the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. combined.  What are the chances they will drink the same kool-aid we are presently guzzling?  Will they need, or even tolerate, the opinions spewed by our pundits and politicians?  And more importantly, will the U.S. dollar still be the world’s reserve currency?

Being a war-mongering banana republic isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, and despite what CNBC’s fast-money fuckwits may think, the stock market is not America’s report card.  Wall Street is the white elephant that America can’t afford to feed anymore and China doesn’t have the slightest interest in buying (just take a look at the Shanghai Composite).   Continuing to yield to its tantrums will undoubtedly destroy us.

Fun Facts:  Total U.S. GDP growth in the 20th century was $9.93 Trillion, while the  government accumulated $5.5 Trillion in debt.  In the 21st century, the US has borrowed $10.7T and has a grand total of $5.30T in GDP growth.

***

Notes for nerds: Most of the calculations presented were derived from data compiled by the World Bank which can be viewed or downloaded here.   World GDP was set to 100% and each country’s percentage determined simply by dividing by world GDP.   Japan’s debt as a percentage of GDP from Fred (225% was used for 2011).  Estimate of U.K.’s 2012 Debt/GDP from here.  U.S. GDP stats from USgovernmentspending.com (2012 estimate adjusted for 2% growth).  US debt from Debt to the Penny.

Notes for non-nerds:  How much World GDP changes from one year to the next depends entirely on what is being used to measure it.  For example, World GDP expanded by 109% from 2002 to 2011 in USD terms, but contracted (-59%) in terms of gold.  Using the Euro would produce different results (+59%), as would using barrels of oil (you figure it out).  Looking at countries relative to World GDP is an honest measure of their changes.  To say that Japan is still growing (at least in terms of Yen), but everyone else is growing much, much faster in terms of Yen distorts the reality that  Japan is undeniably shrinking relative to the world (no matter what currency is used).

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CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

If you don't buy a ticket you're wasting your vote. Make sure to play Romney's birthday and not Ron Paul's. Romney is electable and that's got to count for something (fingers crossed).

Dr. Sandi's picture

Oh, god. We're watching the entire Jericho TV series on Netfelch right now. 2 episodes a night. This thread's making my skin crawl.

I keep hoping Jericho doesn't turn out to be Reality TV.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I only caught a few episodes but that was a good one.

MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

But you're essentially asking him to grow a pair, isn't that a little much to expect?

HappyCamper's picture

Sorry, Renewable Life, I just don't give a shit anymore. Most of the stuff you whine about is either trivial or nonsense.

This election just was a clear choice between freedom and tyranny. Tyranny won. The 47% is now the 51% and it's getting worse. THAT'S the REAL reason the Republicans lost. Audit the FED, the ignorant public doesn't care. The war on drugs as a real issue? Whatever. Renewable energy? What a joke. And Republicans are not in your vagina. That's just more progressive lies repeated by the activist leftist mainstream media and believed by lazy female (and male) voters.

The truth is that the American people are a bunch of selfish dumbfucks that have been brainwashed by our education system and the media. Justice is server however, because they actually deserve the wretched government that they get. The American republic died 100 years ago and American democracy died in 2012. Now only despotism and a Kleptocracy remain.

Nice soapbox.

Omen IV's picture

....AND REPUBLICANS ARE NOT IN YOUR VAGINA"    I DONT HAVE A VAGINA BUT.....the republicans are in a lot of vaginas without permission - please keep up the good work

Dr. Sandi's picture

The politico crowd is going to slither into any orifice you don't actively protect. And there'll be no lube for the peasant class.

Cathartes Aura's picture

oh hahahahhah,

And Republicans are not in your vagina. That's just more progressive lies repeated by the activist leftist mainstream media and believed by lazy female (and male) voters.

"progressive lies" oooohhhhhahahahahhahahhaaahhhahahha

Paul Ryan, carrying on from Ron Paul, who kept RayGun's dream alive.

Sanctity of Life proposed Constitutional Amendment.

yeah yeah, I won't let the story go - p'haps because few here seem to acKNOWledge it.

fuck'g hoot!    zygote personhood!! 

at least Renewable Life's rant hit a better pitch.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

1) A human zygote exists for about four days, and becomes a blastocyst on the fifth day.[5]

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zygote

 

2) Morning-After Pill (Emergency Contraception) at a Glance

  • Birth control you can use to prevent pregnancy up to five days (120 hours) after unprotected sex

http://www.plannedparenthood.org/health-topics/emergency-contraception-m...

 

3. 1)  PAUL: As an OB doctor, I've dealt with birth control pills and contraception for a long time. This is a consequence of government control of medical insurance. The problem is the government is getting involved in things they shouldn't be involved in, especially at the federal level. But along the line of the pills creating immorality, I don't see it that way. I think the immorality creates the problem of wanting to use the pills. So you don't blame the pills. The pills can't be blamed for the immorality of our society.

GINGRICH: When government provides a morning-after abortion pill [under ObamaCare], you inevitably move towards tyranny.

PAUL: Actually, the morning-after pill is nothing more than a birth control pill, so if you legalize birth control pills, you really can't separate the two. They're all basically the same, hormonally.

 

http://www.ontheissues.org/2012/Ron_Paul_Abortion.htm

 

3.2) Q: You have said that you believe that life begins at conception and that abortion ends an innocent life. If you believe that, how can you support a rape exception to abortion bans, and how can you support the morning-after pill? Aren't those lives just as innocent?

PAUL: They may be, but the way this is taken care of in our country, it is not a national issue. This is a state issue. And there are circumstances where doctors in the past have used certain day-after pills for somebody with rape. And, quite frankly, if somebody is treated, you don't even know if a person is pregnant; if it's 24 hours after rape, I don't know how you're going to police it. We have too many laws already. Now, how are you going to police the day-after pill? Nobody can out-do me on respect for life. I've spent a lifetime dealing with life. But I still think there is a time where the law doesn't solve the problems. Only the moral character of the people will eventually solve this problem, not the law.

 

http://www.ontheissues.org/2012/Ron_Paul_Abortion.htm

Cathartes Aura's picture
we've been through it all before, hash it out amongst your fellow disinterested, uninformed voters.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 02:45 | 2963627 Cathartes Aura Vote up!

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yeah, that's always been the part I get stuck on, the Libertarian putting forth the Sanctity of Life Bill proposals every other year. . . I mean, I know these CongressCritters play volleyball with these bills - like the Weather Modification ones K.Bailey Hutchison and her pal Olympia Snow take turns pushing around.

so they just keep those bills "alive" and add bits of different wordage over time. . . pretty fascinating to see how they grow their agenda. . .

and Ron Paul's volleyball was Sanctity of Life, he keep that one alive for years,

The Sanctity of Life Act was a bill first introduced in the United States House of Representatives by Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX) on July 20, 1995, and cosponsored by Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-WY). It was reintroduced with similar text by Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) in 2005 in the 109th United States Congress,[1] 110th United States Congress,[2][3] 111th United States Congress,[4] and the 112th United States Congress.[5] The repeatedly introduced bill sparked advocacy from pro-life activists and opposition from pro-choice activists.[6]

and of course, the Rand son will continue the legacy, but meanwhile, so did the other "Paul" - Paul Ryan, who added some more interesting clawbacks - well, hell, of course - we're talking gov't here, that's what they do, they make LAWS, right?  so Paul Ryan's version, that's a hoot, I'll let you decide through your own web-search who might be the most accurate in their interpretations, but one thing for sure, it's yet another step in the direction of controlling a women's womb, the rights to make decisions about her own body, trumped by the State.  Ryan's floating enforced pregnancy even in case of rape and incest, we'll see how much shit that stirs up, over time.

it's how these politicians work though, stealth, lies, pretense, false labels, misdirection - they keep their agenda alive over time, manipulating the media until it seems a natural thing to acquiesce to, this loss of sovereignty - and for women, body sovereignty.

apparently it all got rollin' with the RayGun!

"Far from being extreme, Congressman Ryan has picked up the mantle of President Ronald Reagan in his support for a congressional declaration of personhood," commented Gualberto Garcia Jones, J.D.  "We are hopeful that as Ronald Reagan did before him, Congressman Ryan will use his position of influence to advocate uncompromisingly for the dignity and full legal personhood of the preborn."

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/religion/romney-vp-pick-supports-personho...

so yeah, all the Conservative Repubs keeping that bill alive, just doing their part for the system that works against the people.  over time.

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 08:50 | 2964090 CrockettAlmanac.com
Vote up!

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If life isn't sacred, what is?

Fri, 11/09/2012 - 14:43 | 2965653 Cathartes Aura
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if life is sacred, you could start with the life lived by the woman, and measure it against the minutes of existence,  completely dependent on the LIFE of the woman, that you desire to award the zygote.  it's illogical to argue UNLESS the argument acknowledges the DESIRE for STATE CONTROL over  female reproductive freedom. 

end of.

all the lofty verbiage you spew and the labels you string together to describe your beliefs mean nothing when it gets broken down into actual beliefs - then you and your fans are exposed for the tiny minded control freaks you are in your hearts. "anarcho-capitalist atheist pro-lifer" - did I get them all in?  any others like a caveat for their particular "libertarian" flavour?  echo chamber of upvoting lacking in critical thinking, all for the sake of wearing the "don't blame me, I VOTED for _______" bumper sticker - clue:  it's the "voting" part that's the tell. . .

if life is sacred, and you desire to enforce pregnancy to live birth - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?  will you continue your sacred role as protector to provider for the forced birth?  or go back to the "fuck the baby mamas and their brats" that is a frequent moan here?  who will provide for all these unwanted babies, and what kind of CULTURE do you suppose you'll end up with? 

*crickets*

anyone interested in *more* of the *same* can roll back the link. . .
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

And yet you fail to understand the words, " I don't know how you're going to police it. We have too many laws already. Now, how are you going to police the day-after pill? "

You'll continue to say that Ron Paul puts the rights of a zygote over those of the mother.

And I will continue to point out your error.

Cathartes Aura's picture

oooh, so disingenuous - Paul may not know how they'll police it, but he's all for making it a Constitutional Amendment and then working out the details as they go. . .

how very very CONgressional - like Pelosi passing the bills so they can see what's in 'em , eh?

you never, ever address the decade long PUSH for that amendment, initiated each time by Ron Paul.

you'd think he'd have figured out how he'd like it policed by now, eh?  best leave that to the locals to enForce.

and yes, way too many laws already - though THIS particular one belongs in the Dark Ages.

The Sanctity of Life Act was a bill first introduced in the United States House of Representatives by Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX) on July 20, 1995, and cosponsored by Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-WY). It was reintroduced with similar text by Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) in 2005 in the 109th United States Congress,[1] 110th United States Congress,[2][3] 111th United States Congress,[4] and the 112th United States Congress.[5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctity_of_Life_Act

dunno how "they" will enForce it, don't care, get 'er done.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The Sanctity of Life act takes reproductive regulation out of the hands of the federal government so there's nothing for them to enforce. Just make sure that your abortion clinic is located in a blue state, voter, so that you can get all those subsidies for free public abortions.

AllWorkedUp's picture

Dude. You're living in my head. I've been wanting to write a piece like that to the local rag. Basically, those idiots need to take on Libertarian Ron Paul principles. I would also add, repeal the NDAA, Patriot Act, Obama care and end the wars, and cut ties and aid to the Zionists.

There were 12 million fewer votes cast in this last election. I couldn't hold my nose and vote for either one of those assholes, I'm sure I wasn't alone.

Unfortunately, I think we're to far gone. Secession is the only way at this point.

HappyCamper's picture

AllWorkedUp, those are all good tangible goals that make sense. +1  Unfortunately, you're probably right in that we're too far gone.

mccoyspace's picture

Secessionist ideas have also been on the Left too.

http://vermontrepublic.org

They've been at it for awhile.

 

Cathartes Aura's picture

case in point:

Basically, those idiots need to take on Libertarian Ron Paul principles.

voter.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

 

 

“If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away.” -- Thoreau

 

 

I HEARTILY ACCEPT the motto, — "That government is best which governs least"; and I should like to see it acted up to more rapidly and systematically. Carried out, it finally amounts to this, which also I believe, — "That government is best which governs not at all"; and when men are prepared for it, that will be the kind of government which they will have.


But, to speak practically and as a citizen, unlike those who call themselves no-government men, I ask for, not at once no government, but at once a better government. Let every man make known what kind of government would command his respect, and that will be one step toward obtaining it." -- Thoreau

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

That's hardly a cogent response. Your obsession is beyond bizarre.

Cathartes Aura's picture

your deliberate obtuseness is completely expected, at this stage.

and the Conservative Republican Party's obsession with controlling wombs is beyond bizarre.

over and OUT.

Renewable Life's picture

Amen, that was the next paragraph I "could have gone on for another hour" with!! 

TSA, Homeland Security Dept, NDAA, Patriot Acts I and II, this shit is all part of the "war on liberty" with I did reference with the war on drugs, but should have expanded upon!!

Things that go bump's picture

I'd vote for em in that case, but they'd still be well advised to find a better, more believable front man than Mitt in 2016, preferably someone other than a rich, middle aged white man.  That is so 20th century.  

Tommy Gunner's picture

The GOP has not been the party of restraint for decades - if ever.   Remember Reagan's voodoo economics...  cut taxes - spend - borrow.

The GOP is - and is perceived to be - the party of cocksuckers.  That sliver of people who want to pay no taxes - destroy the environment - and prance around on their yachts.

Anyone with a brain gets it.   Yet still the dumb fucks in middle america continue to vote for them - they fail to realize they are getting fucked hard in the ass by them hahaha...  but that is because they are ALSO racists assholes.

So what do you have left - the Democratic party - also owned by corporations - the main difference between the parties is that the Dems at least apply some lube when they fuck you up the ass hard.  Oh yes, and they make sure to put on a Bill Clinton smile (whereas the GOP snarls with a fuck face and rams it in dry and takes pleasure out of your suffering)

Cheap energy is done - there are too many people - and there is no longer growth without money printing.

America is FUCKED.  The world is FUCKED.

 

Things that go bump's picture

+1000.  I have never seen the difference put so directly and succinctly.  Sorry guys, stop chewing on your sour grapes and think about it for a moment.  God, that is Dick Cheney to a T.

Things that go bump's picture

You can give me down arrows until the end of time and it won't improve Republican prospects.  

Cathartes Aura's picture

lol, here, have an upvote - for addressing the anonymous downers, *grin*

duo's picture

Obamacare will be so hated by 2016 (and 100 million will be part time and therefore uninsured), that whever proposes scrapping it for single-payer will get huge support.

Repubs...pre-empt the Dems before they propose both the problem and the "solution" to the health care issue.

petolo's picture

Most Americans have no clue what a budget deficit is much less consider it a tragedy.

Sudden Debt's picture

so true, but even after seeing the deficits, trillions and triilons of euros and dollars, even I can't imagine what it really is.
I've seen the pictures how big a pule it would be but in my life, talking thousands of dollars is already a big topic.
Imagine you wife spends 1000 dollars and shoes.... you go nuts.
and in the grand scheme, what's a thousands dollars?

Bollixed's picture

I read a blurb a while back where people in the Weimar Republic didn't finally get the message fully digested regarding inflation until they saw their spending power cut in half in just 7 days. It was creeping up on them, but it wasn't until it reached that ridiculous level that they as a society could no longer keep their heads in the sand.

I have a feeling we're headed down the same road and as long as DWTS remains on TV, and folks iPhones still keep them preoccupied they won't wake up as a whole.

HappyCamper's picture

Bollixed, that's the most lucid and frightening statement that I've read in a long time.  Simply put, people won't wake up until their freedom and prosperity are destroyed.  Hang on; it's going to be a wild ride.

real's picture

i give the screaming potato a thumbs up just cause i miss him day to day 

BurningFuld's picture

The amazing thing is you can still trade that paper shit for stuff. Two words boys and girls: Tangible Assets

Tommy Gunner's picture

It's all ok.  We will all be reincarnated

Coke and Hookers's picture

“…the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost.”

This is the biggest lie. Money printing is a giant redistribution of wealth mechanism that dilutes people's wealth and moves it to the Government and its dependents - and of course to banks. It can be seen as a form of taxation. The three biggest redistribution mechanisms are taxation, deficits and bubbles.

Harbanger's picture

The only way to reverse the National Debt at this point is to dramatically cut spending and reduce the size of Govt across the board.  Any politician who attempts to curb government debt is toast with the voters, in large part because of the propaganda they get from the MSM.  Either way, people voted for the meme of class warfare, free stuff and wealth redistribution. 

Tommy Gunner's picture

IM possible.

We can see where that gets you by looking at Europe... countries that cut end up actually shrinking more - tax revenues go down... hiring goes down... it's a spiral into HELL.

It's simply too late - the debts are now too large - and it's too difficult to take back what has been given - whether it is corporate handouts or programmes for the public.  Again look at Europe - you cannot cut.

Canada a couple of decades was one of few countries that have made this work - but they cut back in GOOD times.... the global economy was buoyant so they could pull it off.

Now the world is collapsing... you cannot cut back and hope to recover.

I guarantee you - what is coming are massive defaults.  Unspeakable defaults.  And CHAOS

 

mkkby's picture

That's true.  Defaults and devaluation are the future, because austerity is impossible now.  However, after a default comes FORCED austerity because you can't borrow the same amount ever again.  Check fucking mate, and no way around that.

This is the lesson of Greece, Spain, Italy... and eventually every debtor nation. 

I believe that is why we have fema camps and soon -- drones everywhere.  Politicians know the math.  They are planning how to maintian order when the snap cards no longer work, and millions of inner city gangsters start feeling hungry.

youngman's picture

Especially when they do it with 0% interest rates...you can´t even save anything and get paid a small % to recoup some of the losses....and we know only 3% of us own precious metals...

CH1's picture

Most Americans have no clue what a budget deficit is

A lot of them do... they just avoid thinking about it.

boogerbently's picture

As is evidenced by the re-election of the majority of congress. (incumbents)

El Tuco's picture

Yes and that will be their undoing.........

Deacon Frost's picture

"It’s a prank you can play on an entire country world".

(considering it IS the world's reserve currency)

icanhasbailout's picture

Hey, look at the bright side. Thanks to obscene currency debasement, a $1 trillion deficit becomes less disgraceful every year!

Zer0head's picture

Propaganda - 100 Control the media you control the language