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Europe's Good, Bad, And Ugly Charts

Tyler Durden's picture





 

A glimpse at stock prices, sovereign bond prices, and credit spreads and you could be forgiven for believing that (a la Juncker) Europe has turned the corner. The dismal reality is that one by one, market-based signals have been decoupled from reality by repression or plain old jawboning and squeezing. The picture of real fundamentals is considerably worse as these three charts from Bloomberg Briefs show. The Good (financial conditions index at multi-year highs) is merely a reflection of the ECB's transfer of risk and support (and is obviously hindered by the acknowledged failure of transmission mechanisms; which leads to the bad - both consumer and business confidence has decoupled (in a bad way) from markets. All this market-based hope is predicated on eventual joint-and-several-ness and an ECB backstop that seems more promise than premise; the ugly is that Germany (cash-money for the rest of the Euro-slaves) has seen six months in a row of manufacturing orders plunge and nine of the last eleven. Markets aside, fundamental realities suggest yet another hope-based rally due to be faded.

 

The main driver of the market (via banking performance and correlation) appears to be the improvement in the optics of the financial conditions index in Europe. This is simply due to the ECB's almost entire disintermediation of the interbank and sovereign funding markets and not in any way a true reflection of reality...

 

EU business confidence (above) has decoupled from this financial conditions index (like never before) and also (below) consumer confidence is at dismal levels...

 

and who will save us? who will provide the capital to back another acronym? Well - not Germany we suspect...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The chart is representative of " BULL SHIT"!     Offended in Queensland, in the middle of the night!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The economy is going from bad to worse. Hold on.

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm not going Eric Sprott marketing GURU! He has some good ideas...

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Tell people that we're actually in an economic depression if real productivity, real consumption, real wages, and that holy grail core metric, real economic growth (or contraction, more accurately), was accurately measured and reported, and they'll look at you as if you're literally clinically insane (with few exceptions).

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

I was specifically told there would be moon bases, rocket boots and jet packs for everyone as well as a kid. 

 

I'm still waiting.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Beating expectations", all... the... way... down...

Same as it ever was.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I can asure you that european trade is really comming to a screetching halt. overal production will be down this month between 8 and 9% vs. 2011.
I have a cockpit of 16700 Belgium companies and their financial health. all production companies.

Companies also are to broke to fire people. Now this may sound funny at first but it also shows that they'll run at full force untill they go bankrupt. And that day is very close for a lot of companies who saw all their cash reserves evaporate in 2008/9.

once the bankrupcy wave hits, Sandy will look like a kitten compaired to what it will do to the EU economy.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:01 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The sheeple won't realize it until the re-crack up leveraging on homes and faux-luxury cars, fueled by taxpayer backed entities such as GSEs and "government motors affiliated credit agencies," all on the back of pure, unadulterated deficit spending by deeply captured "sovereigns" since the monkey hammer of death slam down in 2008 get re-foreclosed upon and re-possessed, whether in the U.S. or EU.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

and news from Spain you can get a 100% bank financed mortgage for a bank reposessed property from a Spanish bank

..hope that made sense as i thought they were broke, and the property market was broke!

..and i'm tempted ...that probably makes no sense!!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

credit creates money he.
Santander is advertising all over europe. yep... with the cheapest loan rates... go figure...

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

yes the Bwanker creates money (credit) out of thin air, pays the property owner/developer and I now owe the bwanker something (for him doing nothing)

it's like insurance, a never ending stream of cash flow until the buck (market) stops ..then he gets caught with his pants down and the politicos come and wipe his arse

you can see why property and banking, and property, banking and politics are so intimately linked

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It's a world economy now, and the earth is saturated with debt, so in the absence of a jubilee, the savior must come from another planet. dumbasses.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

well Christine Lagarde and her swirling LV handbag is as close as you'll get to a female version of Thor from another planet

does the IMF count as an alien being?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

i'm sick of fucking charts that show how we should be fucking crashing!

 

 

 

 

fuck you bernanke, cb's, political fucks, and all fucking tbtf's!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Lets invert the charts, and start with "battleship grey"?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment woggie
woggie's picture

the beast is on the gobble
and all that matters is we're all headed for it's belly
http://youtu.be/ntmthFyaYzY

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Today, my boss tried to fire me.
And because he's a complete moron who simply doesn't read or know shit about economics, I can safely post my story here I guess :)

Today I almost got fired because I did 2 things that are concidered evil now:

1. I work in a international company and I used to refer to my dutch collegues as: the dutch
my polish collegues as: the polish
the french as: the french....

Now that was concidered "rascisme"... really!?

2. I work with about 260 female collegues at work. And sometimes I call some, if the translation is right: Sugar or Girl

That is now discrimination.... really?!

So they brought the company lawyer, the union representative and HR director and my boss into a meeting this morning.
I was totally unprepared. I just got a mail: evaluation.

Now this was like being suckerpunched by a bunch of kids. Really?!
I think I said that about 20.000 times.
That was according to them a reason to fire me with cause so they don't need to pay me my chute.

So as anybody would do, I called for a 30 minute pauze, called my lawyer who loves this shit at 450€ a hour... and we discussed about this shit all day.... goodbye christmass bonus I was thinking... and also a bit of I'LL KILL ALL OF YOU YOU PIECES OF SLIME!!!

So after the afternoon, I came out, with a warning and I'll need to have my lawyer fill in a box of papersork to settle all of this.... goodbye summer vacation....
And I walked out with a paid medical examination from my boss and a checkup with my doctor to see if I suffer stress.....
believe me, I'll be crying like a baby when I'm over there, start to yell and cry some more... that'll convince him to put me on medical leave for about a year.

Now this is the way our bosses treat us to get rid of us without paying our severance pay. which is good :) about 1 month for every month I worked here.

But I won't be able to collect it for sure and I'll have to watch my words really really carefully.

Now they use rascisme and discrimination as a tool. what's discrimination? what's rascisme?

If you call a group: THE.... YOUR GUILTHY.....

if you call a woman who is friendly, and who works,with you all day: sugar or girl...
Believe me, they call me a lot of more sexyizt names and touching happens a lot more by woman than by man. Do you hear me complain?! No!And so do they! My boss heard it and decided it was discrimination!

FUCK THAT!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

Your boss, probably a yes man got the call to tighten the belt, he certainly ain't gonna fire himself, so he need to make shit up, sorry man that's corporate America

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

sales are down 27% year over year... I guess I'll see him fly sooner than I'll have 200 coffee breakes ;)

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Become a contractor then you can shove back.  Once you sign any of that shitty employee paperwork youa re hosed on the discretion of others.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 20:31 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

When you walk into work tomorrow am, declare "[Y]ou people..."  with a mouth full of donut, danish or pastry of some sort, and just leave that ambigous, partial sentence hanging.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment cliffynator
cliffynator's picture

Gino, is that you?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

SD, never heard such weak crap as grounds to summon you or sack you. It's not racist to call a Frenchman, "French" ...it's borderline laughable to call him a frog. The US President just got elected on 95% of the black vote, the racial equalities tossers haven't even lifted a colour-coded finger

As for calling girls "sugar" being sexist it's a term of endearment not detriment. At very least your employer needs complaints from staff and at very least he needs to serve you with a verbal warning, then a repeat written warning. I'm not aware of any Law which prohibits the words you've used and labels them sexist

Fuck your lawyer, deal with it yourself directly 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THE, catagorises people according to them.
and there's no complaints.

I already learned not to go into meetings like this alone. they are there to trick you. they'll make you sign everything and you come out pennyless. believe me, I learned my lesson in the past.
Honestly, it's stupid to go alone.

the words in itself where not the problem according to my lawyer,
It's the way they discribed them in the complaint.
They put in Rascisme and discrimination in the complaint without context. And if I would have signed anything, that would have been read by the WorkCourt in a totally different manner than how I just told the story.

It would just say: acted racist and discriminated woman at work. And believe me, I would have been screwed.

I sound though to go in alone. never do it. always have somebody who catches the bullet,and has your back.

Also, if I would have had that complaint in court, my career would be dead! Where do you think I would be able to work with a rapsheet like that?
Convicted for racisme and discrimination!
We need to show this printout of our rapsheet when we are looking for work.
It's not a funny thing where you risk this kind of stuff.
I just didn't and,couldn't risk it.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"sugar" is a term of indearment ..."bitch' or "Ho" can be taken as sexist

your employers can frame the words however they like, they just look like desperate dickheds taking them out of context and loaded with inuendo that are just not there

similarly "French" and "Pole" are neutral and not the same as "Frog" or "coalminer"

your employer is clearly a fucking retard, tell that to the tribunal  ;)

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 20:37 | Link to Comment TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Fuck the stupid Polack bitchez...can you send a link to their HR application?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You guys kick ass! The time spreads are awesome. Well done " girls and boys"...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Thecomingcollapse
Thecomingcollapse's picture

Really dude?!  C'mon!  I don't appreciate the rudeness of the white screen.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Tyler white screened me! I swear It wasn't me!   That crap pisses me off.

  I'll take the the flak for Tyler, when he sorts it out!~

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

The dollar did a perfect backtest of its moving average convergance today, after the other day's perfect backtest of the head and shoulders downtrend line at 80.  Which one is the real deal?  We can't bang around between 80 and 80.60 till an F-cliff deal gets done or Bernanke Day on the 12th, can we?  

Whatever way this breaks out with volume should be the trend for awhile.  It'd be really nice if it was fuel for the same direction, so we don't get a fake out.   

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 20:01 | Link to Comment StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Zee Germans are recession-proof and Audi's are reliable. Got it?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Can't we just keep producing product that goes nowhere? It has been working so good for the past three years. There has to be more inventory space with all the empty buildings.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Europe already topped in 2011 (FTSE, DAX, CAC, SMI).

 

The last leg to fall is the US.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-362-austerity-debt-fiscal-...

 

Looks like we are headed up until early 2013 - based on nothing but algos trying to suck every last buyer into the markets before they tank.

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