Hump-Day Humor: 4 Fun Facts On 2012/2013 Earnings

Tyler Durden's picture

It's that time of year when 2013 outlooks and strategy pieces bog down an otherwise already overloaded inbox. Some are wise; some not so much. We thought the following four wise fun facts noted from Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker would brighten-up an otherwise dull Wednesday evening. Full details below but: just 10 S&P 500 stocks accounted for 88% of 2012 EPS growth; those same 10 will account for only 34% of the growth next year; 5 stocks are projected to account for one-quarter of the entire S&P 500's EPS growth in 2013; and of the 20 firms expected to grow earnings faster in 2013 than in 2012, 8 of them will be swinging from major slumps to miraculous gains. It seems that once the fiscal cliff is behind us then the whole world is fixed, equities can initiate ramp-mode, and analysts' expectations have a chance of coming true. Parker, however, like us remains more stoic of reality with his 1434 end-2013 S&P 500 target (with downside 1135 possible).

Fun Fact 1: These 10 stocks accounted for 88% of the Earnings growth of the S&P 500 in 2012 - so much for diversification...

 

Fun Fact 2: those same 10 names will account for only 34% of EPS growth next year (still 2% of the names accounting for 34% of the growth is remarkable)

 

Fun Fact 3: These 5 firms are forecast to account for 25% of the S&P 500's EPS Growth in 2013!!

 

Fun Fact 4: And the following names will see 2013 earnings growth faster than 2012, some will be entirely miraculous in their resurgence...

 

So, all in all, the numbers remain highly concentrated, highly hopeful, and highly extrapolated...

as it appears 2013 expectations have a long way to fall back to reality (as many learned in 2012...)

 

Charts: Morgan Stanley