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Quote Of The Day: SNB's Jordan "Base Scenario Doesn't See Euro Collapse"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While Nassim Taleb sees Switzerland as the poster-child for what Europe should become, the quote above from SNB's Jordan begs the question - which scenario does include the Euro Collapse (and remember, as he tells us, the Franc cap is 'not' currency manipulation).

  • *TALEB: FOR EUROPE TO SURVIVE MUST BECOME MORE LIKE SWITZERLAND
  • *JORDAN: FRANC CAP ISN'T CURRENCY MANIPULATION
  • *JORDAN: SNB MAY NEED TO TAKE LIQUIDITY OUT OF MARKET EVENTUALLY
  • *JORDAN SEES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS WEIGHING ON SNB BALANCE SHEET
  • *JORDAN: SNB BASE SCENARIO DOESN'T SEE EURO COLLAPSE


 

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Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:27 | 3018187 So Close
So Close's picture

The day ain't over yet.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:52 | 3018264 negative rates
negative rates's picture

No it isn't.

And J.P.Morgan and Prudential Insurance are walking a fine line, illegie at that, but always do your best carry trade.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:28 | 3018191 Confundido
Confundido's picture

The worst blind is he who doesn't want to see....

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:29 | 3018195 Orly
Orly's picture

Maybe he should read the previous ZeroHedge article about the Bank of Japan?

It ain't pretty...

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:17 | 3018323 knukles
knukles's picture

Any central bank that creates money out of thin air, cost Zero, buys interest bearing instruments and carries them at book resulting in a loss ....

.... should be a governmental agency by virtue of competency

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:29 | 3018196 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

That's IT they got it finally! We all just need to become like Switzerland! 

The hill's are alive with the sound of CHA-CHING!!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:33 | 3018211 Brian
Brian's picture

Oh, I see, so Europe should just peg the Euro to the Franc?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:35 | 3018216 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not sure what it means...maybe become better at making chocolates? Anyway, problem SOLVED time for equity lift-offs YAY we did it!! Dora - We did it - YouTube

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:20 | 3018221 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

  • FOR EUROPEANS TO SURVIVE WORST CASE SCENARIO MUST BECOME MORE LIKE SWISS

The hills are alive with the sound of SIG Sauers!

"If ever a nation had "a well-regulated militia," it is Switzerland. Nineteenth-century economist Adam Smith thought Switzerland the only place where the whole body of the people had successfully been drilled in militia skills."

 

http://www.guncite.com/swissgun-kopel.html

 

Item 5

 

If you live in California where you are restricted to 10 round magazines, then maybe you should move. If you live in Illinois, NYC, or DC, then you should definitely move. If you live on Airstrip One (formerly Britain) where essentially only shotguns may be owned then adjust accordingly. If you live in Switzerland you probably already know how to shoot and have excellent equipment. Everyone should know and abide by their local gun laws, no matter how Draconian, illogical, and unconstitutional they may be. These laws are for your protection/sarc.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-19-10/fear-we-are-returning-time-history-where-it-common-occurrence-fight-ones-life

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:22 | 3018336 knukles
knukles's picture

And look at the gun range!
Like an "Augusta National" Shooting Club

Betcha they got waitresses serving chocolate, schnapps, beer and those great Swiss cold meat and cheese breakfasts with wonderful coffee, and steak tartare whilst dressed up in those big people leather droodle leprechaun outfits.

Man, they could do a new magazine "Gals and Ammo" with the blonde hotties in sexy lingerie all decked out in expensive firearms....

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:34 | 3018215 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Cue the Von Trapp Family...

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 19:09 | 3018816 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

VT family, with guns. Trap shooting.

And more illicit offshoring of money. So, your country's rich people bank their

filthy lucre in my country and my country's rich do the opposite.

Then , Mr Von Trapp can join the Banker Mafia that passes for police

and government, so that nobody can complain about the banks' malfeasance.

And the gates of hell open up and swallow us all.

Amen

 

thanks Mr Taleb

The guy's gone from guru to train wreck in 2 days. Bring on the next piece of meat.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:32 | 3018206 vinayjha
Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:32 | 3018207 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Doesn't the very fact that he is even addressing the issue make it a real possibility?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:34 | 3018214 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

"which scenario does include the Euro Collapse"  the one not covered in whipped cream and cherries.  ie, realistic.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:25 | 3018280 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

That would be the well publicized scenario that involves calling up the militia and reinforcing the borders...

http://euobserver.com/economic/117873

Some 2,000 officers took part in the "Stabilo Due" military exercise in eight towns around the country, based on a risk map detailing the threat of internal unrest between warring factions and the possibility of refugees from Greece, Spain, France, Italy and Portugal, according to Swiss media reports. 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:37 | 3018383 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

And more from the same article...

“It's not excluded that the consequences of the financial crisis in Switzerland can lead to protests and violence,” a spokesperson of the Swiss defence ministry told CNBC on Monday. “The army must be ready when the police in such cases requests for subsidiary help.”

 

...

   

Swiss defence minister Uli Maurer recently told Schweizer Soldat magazine that there may be an escalation of violence in Europe. "I can’t exclude that in the coming years we may need the army," he said.

 

http://euobserver.com/economic/117873

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:35 | 3018218 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

So, the whole Euro needs to be tax avoidance heaven. Aren't they doing this now.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:38 | 3018224 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Ummm...and again...when are folks going to start calling the latest and greatest Greek stick save what it is? It's an f'n default! 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:47 | 3018232 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

So the entire continent of Europe must become a base of operations for Banks & corporations where nothing much else happens.

 

I thought that was the plan anyway ?

 

They see a collapse of the physical economy but not the claims on the economy.

 

I guess it can last for a bit but not forever.

 

Taleb is a Dork.

 

How come they don't teach political economy anymore ?

You Know - where the political & geographical / physical economy interacts ......inputs and outputs and all that lark......

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:02 | 3018284 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

How come they don't teach political economy anymore ?

They do at the University of California at Berkeley.

The Berkeley CEnter for Political economy (BCEP) brings together Berkeley scholars working in the field of political economy. BCEP supports methodologically sound research on the connections between economics and politics.

 

http://bcep.haas.berkeley.edu/

And here is a result...

Ranked 50th

 

California is 24/7 Wall St.’s “Worst Run State” for the second year in a row. Due to high levels of debt, the state’s S&P credit rating is the worst of all states, while its Moody’s credit rating is the second-worst. Much of California’s fiscal woes involve the economic downturn. Home prices plunged by 33.6% between 2006 and 2011, worse than all states except for three. The state’s foreclosure rate and unemployment rate were the third- and second-highest in the country, respectively. But efforts to get finances on track are moving forward. State voters passed a ballot initiative to raise sales taxes as well as income taxes for people who make at least $250,000 a year. While median income is the 10th-highest in the country, the state also has one of the highest tax burdens on income. According to the Tax Foundation, the state also has the third-worst business tax climate in the country.

 

> Debt per capita: $4,008 (18th highest)
> Budget deficit: 20.7% (17th largest)
> Unemployment: 11.7% (2nd highest)
> Median household income: $57,287 (10th highest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 16.6% (18th highest)

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-best-and-worst-run-states-in-america-150415625.html

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:42 | 3018238 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"When things get serious you have to lie" - some stuffed shirt.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:53 | 3018263 Manthong
Manthong's picture

 "Base Scenario Doesn't See Euro Collapse"

Well, OK..  but all the other scenarios do.

  

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:43 | 3018239 Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

He says that, but I bet he's looking to find new and interesting ways to replace their massive amounts of Euros/euro bonds with something less risky, like the Yuan, or the Korean won, or gold/silver/copper, or Ben Bernanke's scalp polish...

 

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:43 | 3018240 adr
adr's picture

Maybe we are in the split second right before the crash where time slows down and it seems like an eternity. The life of FIAT flashing before our eyes.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:51 | 3018242 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The Central question remains : is where the fuck is the flow coming from ?

 

Global and inter european chain of supply systems are not sustainable.

 

So much energy is wasted via "trade" that nothing remains for net capital growth.

 

Indeed in most countries capital is in a dramatic state of depreciation.

 

THE SUPPLY CHAINS ARE TOO LONG.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:57 | 3018279 Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

Don't you mean there are too many middle-men extracting wealth for doing nothing productive?  Seems unavoidable with central banking/fiat/frac reserve systems, no?

 

Just asking...

 

As for flow...  I still like that Eminem.  He's got mad flow.

 

Me, I'm a lyrical murderer.

I know you think I did but, yo - I never heard of ya.

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:48 | 3018250 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

I can fix this, uuhh wait no I can't NVM.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:52 | 3018261 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Isn't "base scenario" supposed to be the worst case?

I suppose that the Skittle shitting unicorns and their Leprechaun friends only see rainbows.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:07 | 3018277 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

 

A figure that is hard to believe but true

The number of Irish vehicles regs. under current licence increased in dec31 2011 relative to dec 31 2010 !

Although motor cycles ,goods vehicles and public service vehicles declined with working vehicles such as tractors & dumpsters more or less static. (slight increase)

Private cars Y2010 : 1,872,715
Private cars Y2011 : 1,887,810

However a dramatic ageing of the fleet is seen.
 31 dec.Y2010
Private cars 4 years old and older : 75%
Private cars 6 years old & older : 56 %

 31 dec.Y2011
Private cars 4 years old and older : 79 %
Private cars 6 year old and older :60 %

If we look at Y2007
Private cars 4 years and older : 65 %
Private cars 6 years and older : 50 %

http://www.transport.ie/upload/general/13673-BULLETIN_OF_VEHICLE__DRIVER_STATISTICS_2011-0.PDF

Ireland is becoming a northerly Morocco
A land full of old Mercs.

The ageing of goods vehicles is far more dramatic

Y2007
Vehicles 4 years old and over : 57 %
6 years old and over : 40 %

Y2010
Vehicles 4 years old and over : 73.4 %
Vehicles 6 years old and over : 50.5 %

Y2011
Vehicles 4 years old and over : 82.3%
6 years old and over : 57.7 %

If a banking fiefdom ever needed a devaluation against other banking fiefdoms so as to direct money energy into productive work (building tram lines ?) it is Ireland.

Also diesel (all vehicles) regs have now gone past the 1 million mark for the first time.
1,022,729 or 42.17%

Y2010
946,912 or 39.19 %

Y2007
821,212 or 33.64 %

 

 

The car fleet is simply unsustainable.

If devaluation is not a option capital controls / massive tax hikes on further private car imports should be made yesterday and all remaining fixed capital creation put into rail and tram connections.

 

capital controls = no Euro.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jv4lkswxpZM

http://www.geograph.ie/photo/1856275

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:20 | 3018333 Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

Its all Ponzi now, and Ponzis take no prisoners.

How is it Ireland's young people are fleeing for lack of work... yet the Irish government figures it a good idea to let in massive amounts of immigrants?

How does that work?

It doesn't make any sense... unless your plan is to de-Irishize Ireland, which maybe, just maybe, is the very idea...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tFsgo7S8n4

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 22:50 | 3019279 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

WTF, didn't you post this shit the other day?
Knock it off, train guy.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:21 | 3018335 Satan
Satan's picture

I would rather suck Von Rumpeys balls than live a non life in boring fucking Switzerland! Fondue eating, no side picking, always on time mountain dwellers. Beige is their favourite colour ffs.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 22:48 | 3019274 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Wow, that is an appalling choice, sir.
If the alternative was to suck on Nancy Pelosi's breasts, we would get the point and move on.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:22 | 3018338 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Titus

We are a market state.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:30 | 3018339 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Titus

We are a market state , not a nation state.

They stopped showing the national anthem on television about 20 years ago now.

 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=wygzJtJwPnk

 

It was certainly a more sustainable method of control.

Now its every man for himself

I course the controllers want this outcome

 

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18519395

As you can more easily pick the marrow from the bones of the former nation.


Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:58 | 3018435 Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

The architect behind Ireland's admittance of thousand of African immigrants is also Irish born - Alan Shatter.

 

Like the Bilderberger and Goldmanite Sutherland, I suspect there isn't a lot of blood flowing in their veins, hence their easy anti-cultural "globalism" for every country on earth.

 

Well, probably not Israel.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:24 | 3018342 knukles
knukles's picture

Become more like Switzerland.
Throw out all the alien visitors?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:31 | 3018363 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

The reading between the lines says: base scenario is bullshit, euro collapse is imminent.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:49 | 3018428 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

I have to admit, it gives me pause, how long these idiots in Europe have kept this ball rolling with bonds in the 5%-16% range in South Europe and rage building in Germany!!! It should give us a cue in America, just how long this game can go on! Without shit burning or an all out ballot box revolt, we better hunker down for the long haul, and shorting this shit should be a fantasy at this point!

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