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Surprise: Right After The Election, New Home Sales Tumble From Downward Revised Two Year High

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There are those who may be surprised that last month's number of Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales, which was then reported at 389K, and which number hit the airwaves days before the Obama reelection, was the highest since April 2010. We are not among them, as we were fully expecting today's number to be a major revision of the September number lower - as just happened, with the whopper of a print revised far lower to 369K - but doubled down with the additional miss of expectations of Seasonally Adjusted annualized new home sales of 390K for October when in reality only 368K were sold. All these numbers are annualized. When observed on an as is basis, in October there was a grand total of 29,000 new homes sold in the entire USA, with the Northeast representing a whopping... 2,000 of this. Oh and of the 29,000 houses sold, 9,000 were not even started. And finally, for those who enjoy pointing out the rise in home prices driven only and exclusively by foreclosure inventory stuffing and removal of all such real estate from the open markets, both the median and average new home price ($237,700 and $278,900) printed at at the lowest since June. Oh wait, we know: Sandy's fault. Which explains all bad data. When the data is good, it is nobody's fault.

Please point out the housing "recovery" on the chart below.

And a longer term chart:

 

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Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:24 | 3017420 surf0766
surf0766's picture

In Amerika all numbers are positive ! No ?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:31 | 3017433 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

In CronyKapitalismComrade Amerika, statistical manipulation & timing of revision dumps own you.

Ben "Bukkakus" Bernax Economic Forecasting Epic-Ness 2005-2007 - YouTube
Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:36 | 3017457 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Yes, but that was then; the new numbers are entirely accurate and trustworthy.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:06 | 3017497 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

When the dumb ass bubble head who cut my hair was speaking about how all of the "very few" homes for sale in her neighborhood were selling quickly and quietly - "the for sale signs were taken down but no one was moving in, so we're thinking of listing our underwater home," she said (since the GSEs have literally been instructed to sit on delinquent mortgages & homes that could be foreclosed on, or, and I quote, "attempt to rent, rather than list for sale, the vacant units," per directive of the illustrious Federal Reserve Jackass Repository, and there's no doubt that the "settlement" with robosogining entities and their servicers has and will include more of the same instructions, effectively diminishing what would be the normal flow of foreclosured homes released by a conservative 80%, coupled with starry-eyed "investors" chasing those few assets that are actually being "released" in a highly "efficient" central planning way (sold to you, bitchez! Price non-discovery FTMFL!!!) as "rental properties")...

...I just nodded and forced a gentle smile, and I said in monotone, "that's nice."

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:32 | 3017517 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Are blue tarp, poly cord and spruce strapping counted as "home sales"? (You know, new normal and all that.)

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:58 | 3017530 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Oh come now. Housing is BOOMING. Why I saw in the news where one blew up in New Milford, CT just the other day.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 04:50 | 3019681 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

The "Aliens" are taking a breather.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:24 | 3017421 Zer0head
Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:28 | 3017430 chubbar
chubbar's picture

For the "truthers" out there and those interested in the truth, great new video out with new details piecing together 911 and all those behind it. Fascinating.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=n_fp5kaVYhk

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:51 | 3017504 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Also, a major International Conference on 9/11 has just concluded in Malaysia:

http://911blogger.com/news/2012-11-25/international-conference-911-revis...

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:03 | 3017554 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Cynthia McKinney presents to the 9/11 Revisited conference in Kuala Lumpur.

LOL!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:36 | 3017628 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

So that's your 'argument' against the absolute free fall for 2.28 seconds of WTC 7 due to office fires -- first EVER (NIST) -- as NIST admits? 

Or maybe it's your 'argument' against the measured acceleration of the roof line of WTC 1 at 2/3 of free fall and which never decelerated though many floors were being 'crushed'?  You know, just like how a car keeps accelerating through a school bus when they collide (sarc).

Ever use a hammer?  Ever notice how the hammer head decelerates when you hit the nail requiring several blows?

Cynthia McKinney stood in and asked tough questions of Rumsfeld when EVERY other member of Congress was wetting themselves.

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:51 | 3017681 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, the most "interesting" and "coincidental" part of 9/11 is the records which "unfortunately" went up in fire, not only in WS7 but ALSO in the Pentagon.

I mean, getting rid of one set of embarrassing/criminal data is one thing, but two out of two... we must be talking odds in the billions?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 13:06 | 3017728 chubbar
chubbar's picture

I've followed 911 issues for quite a while and even I was surprised at some of the dots they just connected on the video I posted above which just came out. Please watch it if you are interested in this topic.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 13:09 | 3017741 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

My favorite part was while the planes were busy vaporizing steel buildings, the FBI was able to identify a turrist by his unscathed passport, found at the crash site.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 13:21 | 3017808 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...and that, despite none of the black box recorders allegedly ever having been recovered.

uh-huh.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:06 | 3018653 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Well excuss me but that intact passport was the only blackbox required to see America frisked of everything. 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:59 | 3018282 vato poco
vato poco's picture

OK. I get that. Cynthia Mckinney is a foaming-at-de-mouff fucking loon, and I would no more listen to her theories on.....well, anything....than a hardcore lefty would listen to a Limbaugh program. Fine. Gotcha. Super.

But.

Whether you think The 9-11 Official Story is Gospel or Bullshit, would *strongly* suggest y'all take a look at Chubbar's youtube link. It's _not_ Cynthia Mckinney/Alex Jones/Boogeyman stuff - and if even just 5% of it is true, it's well worth your time. I'll leave any questions that might arise, such as, "Why didn't I see *any* of this stuff on TV, even once??" to y'all.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:58 | 3017534 Orly
Orly's picture

Cui bono?

Thanks for the link.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 18:37 | 3018731 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

fuck those clowns downvoting this

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:28 | 3017437 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

from twitter to the shitter.......

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:43 | 3017484 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

There is an app for that....

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:56 | 3017522 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Hate to break the news to you, but the Twitter counter represents "Global" usage.  The Empire of the future is the Empire of the mind.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:19 | 3017604 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

What exactly is Twitter?

And I probalbly am wrong, but isn't Bernank doing 45 billion in MDS and 40 Billion in twist per month?

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 16:24 | 3018343 eddymunster
eddymunster's picture

Damn Cloyd didn't make the list?

 

https://twitter.com/CloydRivers

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:44 | 3017423 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Glad you beat me to it I was just going to mention this...

As usual it was "unexpected" but "priced in".

 

Also DB is being sued over MBS.

 

Get ready for a 200 point reversal on the good news.

 

Does the Housing Sector Really Help Grow GDP?

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/does-the-housing-sector-really-help-grow-...

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:25 | 3017424 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Housing recovery" myth deflated.   What next? 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:31 | 3017445 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Media reported unemployment over 10% (real unemployment over 25%).

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:47 | 3017494 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Nope. That number is based on a formula that is baked in such a way as to be self correcting. It's so simple, but most don't grasp it. It's even talked about from time to time, but seemingly as nothing more than to rub the noses of the who understand the number in the shit that they created.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:56 | 3017524 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Potemkin villages everywhere.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:56 | 3017523 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Nope, they just blamed Sandy

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:58 | 3017537 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

What's next? GDP revised down. Inflation revised up. Consumer confidence down. Food stamps up. Consumer debt delinquencies up. Consumer savings down.

But, on the bright side, gun sales continue to climb.

Buy bullets, bitchez.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:21 | 3017611 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

"Inflation revised up"

Doubtful. When you exlude the volitile food, energy, housing, transportation, apparel, education, and recreational segments, you will find inflation to be quite tame, no matter what happens to the rest of the data.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:26 | 3017427 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

We are selling our house. No one is coming to look at it. If we wanna give it away we could, but I will just reno the fucker into a multi-family for Hector and make money that way. Fuck you "New Normal". 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:07 | 3017567 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

This is what I'm seeing in my town.  

My nextdoor neighbor has had his house up for sale for most of this year; not sold yet and I haven't noticed anyone stopping by to look.  I got a call from a realtor saying that someone was interested in buying my house (not currently for sale) because it's a duplex (currently single occupancy; me).

Here in town, people are converting their homes into rental units and then moving on.  Pretty soon, maybe the entire population of southern Mexico will be renting in various towns here in el Norte.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:51 | 3017680 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Viva Los Bitchez!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:15 | 3018159 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

Not "New Normal," just fundamentals kicking in.  Home prices started rising in 1996 (especially in California) and then went on a tear after 2000.  That was a mania, not normal.  If housing price don't reflect what current salaries can afford (Max. house price = 3 times income) then they are too expensive.  

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:26 | 3017428 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Welcome to Ømerika!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:33 | 3017452 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Huge tax increase Jan-1-2013 will make US NEGmerika (worse than zero).

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:33 | 3017450 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Bouncing along the bottom like a carp eating shit.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:38 | 3017466 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

What will the carp eat when we starve to death and quit shitting?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:34 | 3017453 venturen
venturen's picture

But I read today that housing is driving the economy....hmm?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:37 | 3017461 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The ditch the economy is driving in is really bumpy.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:23 | 3017625 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

It's not the ditch, but rather the broken axle that makes the car bounce along. However, the ride will be much smoother with great acceleration once we go over that cliff.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:17 | 3017595 CH1
CH1's picture

But I read today that housing is driving the economy....hmm?

Ah, but it is...

The zombies are getting new home improvement loans and taking them to the mall!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:35 | 3017454 docj
docj's picture

Gee, another post-election downside "surprise". What a freaking shock.

Gad, I find it difficult to believe just how gullible, stupid, and easily manipulated as a society we've become.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:42 | 3017481 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Not a recent phenomenon. We've been using FRNs thinking it is "money" for a long time. Hell, what % of our population attends church regularly? At least that number is trending down.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:20 | 3017607 CH1
CH1's picture

At least at church they get an hour or two to think about weightier matters than Miller Lite, Dancing With The Stars and the home team.

At least that's what used to happen in churches.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:22 | 3017620 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

It has taken a lot of years and hard work to turn a once independent, hard working, ambitious people into a bunch of nanny state, brain dead parasites.

Its a real lesson in psychology.  It would be fascinating if it wasnt so tragic.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:36 | 3017458 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Propagandobama.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:39 | 3017472 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

50% believed it.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:38 | 3017468 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

bullish for homebuilder shares imo

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:46 | 3017491 adr
adr's picture

People actually buying homes would probably be the only bearish thing for homebuilder stocks in the new normal.

If people bought new homes, there would be no reason to build more because they would already be living in one.

Yes, that is the logic of today's market.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:38 | 3017469 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Any published number that is based on a projection that uses a formula is propaganda. Even the later revised number is likely a lie, but the first one, pure propaganda. I'd bet that the numbers were reasonably accurate as the debt bubble grew somewhat naturally... The whole system was based on a lie, but the numbers likely supported the myth. But peak credit was the game changer. A line in the sand that should tell everyone to not believe anything. That is where we are today. Best you can do is look at the harder to fudge numbers: food stamps, BDI... Prices in the super market after accounting for package shrinkage.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:39 | 3017470 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

can someone explain me this 1% pop market reaction? I don't understand shit anymore...

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:44 | 3017483 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

FOMC.

You are welcome.

 

 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:00 | 3017545 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

would it be safe to say the Fed just decided to "invest" some freshly printed money in oil and stocks on behalf of the American people?

strange, I thought market was ready for a 2% sell-off right before that pop came... I must be wrong

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:39 | 3017471 adr
adr's picture

No they wouldn't lie to keep the Fraudnabler In Chief in office. Can't be true.

What's next, we find out Obamaclaus doesn't exist? What are the children going to think when they don't get phones under the holiday tree.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 14:11 | 3017957 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

People will believe in Obamaclause until he runs out of other people's money. Once the Obamaphones stop working and the SNAP cards stop working, the moochers are going to be angry.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:40 | 3017473 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

I wonder how long it’s going to be before banks start self-dealing their foreclosed home inventory among themselves to drive up home prices and the apparent strength their balance sheets? (you buy mine, he’ll buy yours, I’ll buy his, etc.) Hey, they did it with MBS and got away with it, why not real homes too?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:46 | 3017492 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Works for the SPY, why not housing as well.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 14:14 | 3017968 Kasperfx
Kasperfx's picture

Thats actually the business model in play right now.

 

Fed/Banks hand out cheep Fiat money to cooperative  so called institutional buyers to buy to show inflated prices and play hot potato with to make the markets look like it has some activity and upword gaines with hopes the general public will start to buy in to. 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:42 | 3017480 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

whats the word I'm looking for, oh yes it's FUBAR! now lets all go out and get some I-Crack!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:45 | 3017488 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

this market will bath salt your face off

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:47 | 3017495 pocomotion
pocomotion's picture

As the American consumer goes, so goes America!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:02 | 3017551 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

When America sneezes the World farts.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:51 | 3017503 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Well, if Harry Reid was short @ S&P 1405, then John Boehner is long @ S&P 1388-ish.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49993099

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:53 | 3017507 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Does fucking Boehner have some spx buy orders! The market spikes (100 points) on some bullshit obscure remark from that assclown over the fiscal cliff!

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:59 | 3017541 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

oh, is that what it was? I thought it was reaction to homes report HA - wouldn't surprise me

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:07 | 3017559 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Boehner says something about the President and the Democrats "getting serious about spending" and the market rallies?

This is a pop-fly into foul territory, or an imcomplete pass, and suddenly it's a game changer?

HFT algo comprehension heuristics need a lot of work; suggest connecting "get serious" with "about spending" from a Republican to trigger a sell versus a buy.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:13 | 3017583 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Oh come now. That would be unethical. His wife and kids have the call options.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 15:37 | 3018222 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

+10K for "assclown"

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 11:58 | 3017532 Chmee
Chmee's picture

October Home Sales Revised. Yeah, Sandy's fault.... I kinda doubt five lost days of sales would drop the real numbers to only 29,000.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:03 | 3017555 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

maybe the algos think that once sales drop to zero, the new home sales will become negative and considered as home buys, which is positive... no?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:08 | 3017570 wisefool
wisefool's picture

If you knowingly roll the 5 digit odometer in an automobile over, and sell the car as is, you did not technically, unethically, roll the odometer backwards. 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:09 | 3017574 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

What's the half-life of "Sandy's fault" anyway?  Six months?  A year?  "Katrina" was about 18 months, and "Bush's fault" apparently still survives...

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:00 | 3017544 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Cue Leisman vs. Santelli, round 86 in their 259th rematch.

"You dont know how to do math Rick. The NAR has smart people like me that aparently need to do it for you." 

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:01 | 3017547 DavidC
DavidC's picture

And twenty minutes later, the the Dow has rallied over 100 points.

DavidC

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:33 | 3017650 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

make that 160

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:01 | 3017550 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Economists will revert back to their Econ 101 for a brief moment and claim that this must mean prices are higher.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:07 | 3017566 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

What's 20,000 home among friends?

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:11 | 3017579 news printer
news printer's picture

You've heard of peak oil—the idea that the globe's easy-to-get-to petroleum reserves are largely cashed, and most of what's left is the hard stuff, buried in deep-sea deposits or tar sands. But what about peak phosphorus and potassium?

Are We Heading Toward Peak Fertilizer?

http://goo.gl/wpS6O

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:18 | 3017596 Acet
Acet's picture

Silly Tyler, if you do a little bit of technical analysis on the first chart you can immediatly spot the upwards slanted trend line. It's obvious that the housing market is recovering and at it's current breath-taking pace we'll be back to 2005 level of New Home Starts in about 50 years or so.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 12:38 | 3017661 edifice
edifice's picture

The housing bubble has followed the "classic bubble chart" almost perfectly. Anyone with two firing neurons knows we're just in the dead-cat-bounce of the correction phase.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 13:25 | 3017819 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Similarly, we didn't fail to anticipate and prevent a terrorist attack on an American consulate on 9/11, until after the election of course.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 13:58 | 3017917 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Seriously, which propaganda is it that can be trusted?

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 04:54 | 3019685 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I watched all those new zero-down houses beibng sold in 2006-2010 at $100 psf.

 

When people started to default prices dropped and they "walked away" or were foreclosed, prices dropped to $75 psf.

 

In September many dropped to $50 psf and now the market is flooded with boxes at $45-$48 psf!

 

Concurrenctly, builders are busy adding over 6,000 new houses to the area. I don't see house prices stabiulzing for years to come. All RE is local is true and there are a few pockets where the "Aliens" are buying, but those areas are tiny compared to the 99.9% rest of the nation where prices are still falling and there is little job recovery.

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