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4-Week-Average Jobless Claims At 13-Month High As Sandy Effects Gone

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While any and every bad data point recently has been summarily dismissed by the 'transitory' effects of Hurricane Sandy, it appears in the deepest darkest reality that there is more of a structural trend to this shift than simply a 'blip'. Claims missed expectations and prior data was revised higher leaving the four-week-average at its highest since October 2011 jumping back over 400k. More critically, when we dig into the details on the DoL site, we find some rather disturbing trends that totally dismiss Sandy effects. For instance, according to the DoL, there were 30.6k fewer initial claims in New York Last week - when this higher aggregate data point is supposed to be due to 'Sandy'. FL, MI, and MA saw the largest increases in claims. It seems blaming this trend-break on Sandy is now a non-starter - fiscal cliff front-running perhaps? Election hangover?

 

 

and by state - NY saw improvements so the miss and rise in aggregate claims is NOT a Sandy-related thing quite clearly...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and DoL

 

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Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:50 | 3020058 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

i work on the floor of the cme and 3 more trading desks were eliminated..the finnacial industry just seems to keep falling apart..but it lets my boss and i try to pick up more clents as we are a small 2 man operation..lol

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:06 | 3020123 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

We expect you to act in accordance to ZH rules if you are truly on the CME floor. This means you are to expose the fraud of PM trading and kick Gensler in the fucking teeth when he visits the floor.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:51 | 3020059 vinayjha
vinayjha's picture

DOL of forgetting election is over and now they need to work

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/11/stocks-for-nov-29th-tivo-blox-lz...

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:52 | 3020062 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

When do thet start rumer dropping QE5? Before or after they start QE4?

Schiff/Rogers etc. have to be freakin shocked. If you said we'd be on QE4 they both would probably say gold would be at $2,500.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:53 | 3020069 Jason T
Jason T's picture

revisions.. nothing but up.

 

time to hunker down.. savings rates will rise as job security time is back.  

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:54 | 3020071 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

QE infinity, no numbering required.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:13 | 3020116 dcj98gst
dcj98gst's picture

QE Eternity = yes

Now its going to be QE Eternity at what rate?  

40B of MBS a month now

soon to be 80B

then 160B  

How soon to get to 1 Triillion a month? 10Trillion?

This is the new numbering system that the "rumors" will center around.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:54 | 3020072 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Logical that there would be fewer construction layoffs in NE due to rebuilding efforts.  If only all the unemployed had leveraged their UE benefits and bought the SPX at 667, nobody would need to work anymore, right?  Or if the Fed prints enough money and the SPX goes to 10,000, we can all retire and stay home and food will magically appear at our doorsteps.  Forward, comrades!

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:01 | 3020095 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

" Or if the Fed prints enough money and the SPX goes to 10,000, we can all retire and stay home and food will magically appear at our doorsteps.  Forward, comrades!"

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes.  Someone has to actually plant, grow, and deliver that food and that takes energy.  Indeed, we are the Soviet Union, circa 1987-1989, so what comes next has already been scripted.  Interestingly, GS also profitted from that collapse as well.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:20 | 3020168 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

What happened in the soviet union was a massive devaluation of the currency, overnight.  A few times. They successfully pulled the red money conspiracy. I know people who's family literally burned bags of currency that became worthless the minute it was eliminated. I think there is no way they pull that off here. That is just my opinion.

What seems almost more possible to me than that is the fed comes out, halts all monetary policy at once, failed bond auctions ensue, rates skyrocket. That's the cue for TPTB to finally take the sheep out back and put a bullet in them to save their mighty dollar. We restructure all our overseas debt, and massive, massive reconstruction of entitlements take place. The under 40 crowd will not give a shit because we all knew we were never getting our benefits anyway. Besides they will do it during football season. The 40-55yr old crowd will riot about it, but will just be told deal with it. The 60 plus crowd will get hit the least and will just quietly blame the younger crowd.

Our politicians announce to the world that we have finally taken our medicine, and look forward to re entering the bond markets soon. The middle class takes a complete dump down to the lower class and we complete our move to be a 3rd world country. But the dollar won't be confetti. Oh and by the way, GS etc. were massively short treasuries when it happened (obviously).

I think that is the backup plan if the 7-10% inflation plan starts to unravel. But it is easier to just inflate quietly as long as they can.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:31 | 3020244 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Real inflation (especially if one considers health care costs) is already running above the central bank's 7-10% plan.  This is what I am saying, it is already failing.  The real problem here is that, despite what other "creditor" nations may be saying, this is happening all around the planet (the world is printing, period) as the underlying energy that can be delivered to the planet for real growth has flatlined since 2005.

 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:33 | 3020257 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you man.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:55 | 3020076 Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

Bernanke's second term ends on January 31 2014. Good news

If Dudley takes over for 8 years this would probably guarantee the hyperinflation that we have seen being steadily created. Bad news

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:01 | 3020106 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I've always assumed it was William Dudley telling Bernanke what to do anyway.

Hes the guy sitting as Chairman of the Committee on the Global Financial System of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:10 | 3020142 Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

Bay, I tried to watch a few of his interviews a while back in preparation of what was to come.

Scary that there is a worse debaser on this Earth than Bernanke. We are talking about a walking, talking, printing drone. No other plans, ideas, strategies. Just printing money in a vacuum.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:58 | 3020079 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Bullish for housing and more massive zero down NINJA loan handouts to perpetuate the House of Cards.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:57 | 3020083 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

their misses are getting worse.  instead of the typical 2-3k weekly increase we've all grown to know and love, its now coming in at 6-8k per week.  can we blame the fudging of data on sandy as well?

 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:39 | 3020278 Taffy Lewis
Taffy Lewis's picture

It's all rosy - says Bloomberg:

"Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease as Sandy Effect Dissipates"

All of those weekly decreases raised the 4 week average to over 400k (405,250).

The sheeple are comforted that we are moving forward and in the right direction.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:56 | 3020084 knukles
knukles's picture

What jobs?

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:59 | 3020091 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The election is over....we no longer need jobs.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:59 | 3020092 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

It's all Nixons fault. Go ahead have the press release and start the blaming game.

Yeap the fools who voted for the crap over and over and over only to be bent over.

 

 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:29 | 3020233 northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

LOL!  Great post, the sad part is it's true. 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 13:44 | 3021051 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Fock dat.

If they hadn't televised the Nixon/Kennedy debates, Nixon would've won that election and we'd probably have taken a pass on the whole Veetnomm thingie.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 09:59 | 3020096 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

The election is over, the real work is now done.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:00 | 3020097 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Royal Bank of Canada reported less than stellar results in part due to Sandy. What BS.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:00 | 3020099 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the maggots don't need usa workers or euro workers they can just sell their china-made shit in china and keep all the profits for themselves. good luck with that plan.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:02 | 3020110 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Indeed buzzsaw.  I will also be asking for gold in exchange for my soybeans from now on.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 11:14 | 3020391 Curt W
Curt W's picture

The US only has about 4% of the world population, There are plenty of people to sell the cheap crap to.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:01 | 3020102 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Like all reality, this news, too, will be dismissed!

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:06 | 3020125 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

After long hours of observation I have come to the conclusion that this administration just sucks. My new theory states that this is all being done on purpose. There is no other way that all of this shitty production could be. The answers are SO simple, but they continually fuckass everyone. 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:08 | 3020134 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It doesn't matter as long as investors believe in the numbers. 

The US has the best song and dance show. Madoff proved it works. When you have Bernanke and the fed's unlimited money machine worthless money is as good as gold if everyone continues to believe. 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:14 | 3020167 semperfi
semperfi's picture

The election proved one thing:  Americans don't want jobs - they want free money (govt checks).  GAME OVER.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:51 | 3020319 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Mob rule?  better get your tribe in order.  Same as is ever was.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:55 | 3020337 Taffy Lewis
Taffy Lewis's picture

It says so on the front page of www.benefits.gov: "Learn about FREE MONEY..."

No joke.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 10:24 | 3020201 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

But yahoofinance says claims have fallen and futures are pumped. Who should I  believe? LOL.

There's no way these stupidfucks are going to be able to hold all this shit together and be able to implement global gobble.

I don't buy into the "they did this on purpose" argument.  It's blowing up in their faces is what's happening and we're going to pay dearly for it.

Looks like I better get the chicken house running.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 11:52 | 3020549 Oleander
Oleander's picture

Shaws supermarkets, and thier parent company,  laid off workers in Mass. They are closing stores. I am surprised they are not using the Twinkie Defense to explain the increases. 

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