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Market Drops As GOP Rejects Obama's "Uncompromising" Fiscal Cliff Offer
Markets sold off earlier today when Boehner commented that "no substantive progress had been made" in the last two weeks, only to recover quite rapidly. The 'rejection' is now in full context as the WSJ has just reported the terms have not changed (or compromised) at all since we first discussed them two weeks ago. A $1.6tn tax increase (upfront), $50 billion economic stimulus, and most importantly (we suspect guided by the miscreant hand of Geithner) the removal of the need for congressional approval to raise the debt ceiling. Overnight futures are down 5-6 points pushing towards Boehner's intraday lows. This should throw a little light on exactly where the negotiations stand (nowhere) and how willing each party is to change and bring hope to the table for compromise (not at all). With DC this far apart still, the game for the next few weeks is not to solve the fiscal cliff but to avoid getting the blame for the cliff-dive.
We can't help but feel like this being Geithner's pet project that a) it is doomed, and b) the angle is all about the debt ceiling. He has already publily commented that we would be better off without that 'check and balance' - but of course in reality all that means is that the nation is free to spend at will theoretically (as if there were a limit now). Perhaps it is a subtle signal that (as we have pointed out) the debt ceiling debate is actually even more important than the fiscal cliff and maybe (just maybe) Timmy G has run out of deferred pension tricks up his sleeve to cover the gap.
Via WSJ:
President Barack Obama made an opening bid in budget talks with Republicans that calls for a $1.6 trillion tax increase, a $50 billion economic-stimulus program and new power to raise the federal debt limit without congressional approval, a broad set of demands Republicans viewed as a step back in talks to avoid looming tax increases and spending cuts.
The proposal, offered by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner as he made a round of meetings with congressional leaders in the Capitol Thursday, calls for increasing tax rates on incomes over $250,000, a one-year postponement of looming spending cuts in defense and domestic programs, and some $400 billion in savings over 10 years from Medicare and other entitlement programs.
The details of the proposal were described by congressional GOP officials. Earlier in the day, after GOP leaders met with Mr. Geithner, they made plain they didn't like what they heard.
"No substantive progress has been made in the talks between the White House and the House over the last two weeks," said House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), who also spoke to Mr. Obama on the telephone Wednesday night.
...
The White House offer in some sense amounts to a formal start of the negotiations, which could take many twists and turns before any possible deal is consummated. The White House didn't have an immediate comment.
...
Mr. Boehner's tone was a change from earlier this week when he said he was optimistic a compromise could be reached...
"All eyes are on the White House, the country doesn't need a victory lap, it needs leadership," Mr. Boehner said at a news conference in the Capitol. ...
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They will make a bargain in the 11th hour. It will contain tax increases that billionaires won't have to pay due to tax loop holes, cuts to programs such as Head Start, and it will have no impact on the debt issuance from the UST. Until then Congressmen will day trade the wild swings their mouths bring forth.
No way!!
indeed....what is monday? the first day of the december trading month is what...and you can be almost as sure as shit that a weekend deal will be in the headlines whether there is any substance or not....make sure to buy ES calls late friday if markets are down.
They better not remove the Congressional approval requirement, I've gotten fond of watching the farcical circus of debt ceiling increases.
Masochist!
Why do we need a debt ceiling when we don't have budgets?
I think we have seen the last budget ever. That was over three years ago by the way.
Budgets? Inalienable rights? Who needs all that shit anymore?
Who goes to jail if the federal government illegally spends beyond the debt ceiling?
If you say it too loud...?
You do now.
At this point, I only care to see them do whatever it takes to hasten the demise of that which is unsustainable, and immoral.
They won't cut Head Start. They need to start training kids in government values as early as possible; as cognitive dissonance rises, so does the failure rate of behavioral conditioning. Getting them early helps shape the brain to mroe comfortable accommodate that dissonance.
I used Head Start as an example because they've already cut Head Start. Imagine that, Neo-Liberals, your President cut Head Start while bombing the shit out of Libya.
And somehow they can't see that he's the same fucking guy (albeit slightly better spoken) than Shrub.
A slightly better reader.
Archer would make a better president!
No shit. Remember his brief, unsuccessful dint as a pirate king? He wouldn't even raid ships because small business owners would be ruined by the loss of their vessels! Can you imagine Obama letting them off?
For it is it is a glorious thing to be a pirate king.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ7SVMVrick
Or perhaps more in the style of the Crimson Permanent Assurance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc61tCfPXMk
Taller and better looking.
Title I funding was cut severely THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION.
Head start has proven itself to be effective and well worth the cost. The statistics show that kids who go through the program do better in every way. It's definite benefit for society and a fuck of a lot cheaper than incarceration, there really is no downside. Of all the things to cut, one of the most shortsighted... not to mention its a teeny part of the budget. The rationale for cutting it is motivated by conservatarian ideology, not common sense.
No amount of indocrination is going to save those responsible from the wrath of the youth when they figure oout just how badly they have been screwed over by their parents and grandparents generation.
Hush Michelle...I hear the pitter patter of Sasha & Malia's feet in the hall.
(Lock the door)
Haha, what a tool... All you young idiots voting in the savior of redistribution will learn...and it will be all on your head. You voted to continue the overspending and the cronyism and the endless wars and the abrogation of civil liberties. Boomers have done NOTHING comparable to the blowing up of America that will be accomplished by their votes for Obama.
Good luck, hope you like living with your choice...'cause he sure wasn't the choice of the majority of those over 50.
No, that was the 11th hour, and tomorrow will be the 12th, and final hour of patience, with the GOP. The only option is your choice of which dive to take, the swan, or the barrell roll, or the straight dive, take your pick.
yeah, but someone needs to remind the bulls(hitters) that the community organizer won't be running for president again and, given that, I suspect the secret sevice has probably stopped making visits to S&P.
Right...this will keep the FED from slamming the futures.
I guess it doesn't hurt to ask for the max.
Fucking congress is useless so why not ask to dissolve it and el presidentie can do whatever the fuck he or she wants. I don't hope it comes to POTUS raising the ceiling. What a FUCKTARD
If repubs don't do the right thing here it all over for anyone that earns a living.
They'll roll over.
"the country doesn't need a victory lap, it needs leadership" - which of this group of ass-clowns on either side of the isle will be able to provide said leadership mr. boner?
None of them will lead. Obama is deliberately setting things up so that they will go to all hell and the Republicans will take the blame. He did this out of the gate when he first got elected (poisoning any hope of cooperation with GOP lawmakers) and is following the exact same script now. Can you not see the pre-positioning? #My2k
Your assessment is exactly right and "leadership" is in short supply inside the beltway.
By design.
Puppets can sing and dance, but have no faculties outside of their strings.
When the press is on your side, you are never to blame.
That's a clown-question, bro!
What do the repubs have to lose, watch the economy crash and burn under Obama 2.0 and see a repub pres in 2016. how easy is that?
Like teens in the weight room they have to look tough.
Boehner is full of beans. Enough House repugs will defect to pass it. Keep talking out your ass Boehner.
And the motivation to do that is what with election past?
don't kid yourself. both parties and their owners love a big spending gubbermint
Ah right, but whats the motivation for repubs to sing cumbaya with the dems? Just becuase?
it is already happening: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/28/cole-defends-position-on...
Defect? To what? No alternative is going to get to the floor. Boehner can prevent that.
watch and learn
Everything here looks good for holding gold.
Morsi is not alone........
I have been hosed 2/times on the risk trade! I see a weekly breakout/ I'm tired of breaking even!
With Russia close by, no, it's Israel playing cyber warfare ready for the big one Iran. Warm up was Palestine which was a 'bombing run', now this. So next, will be the strike on Iran. How many western embassy officials are left in Iran? Apart from local support staff?
Counting down to war, after Jan fiscal cliff nonsense which only HFTs are trading off i.e most hedge funds are out of market.
Gore enforcing his patent...no more "spontaneous demonstrations" for you!!! ;-)
I'm convinced Geithner has a personality disorder. The guy has no ability to recognize how he screwed up and leave things alone. Instead he pushes on to try and make this house of cards work. Removing the debt ceiling approval by Congress is a terrible idea.
Please don't think I'm defending Beavis Geithner, but he's just a treasurer, a glorified accountant. His job is to kiss his boss's butt and keep the books. He's nobody.
they're all employees, bottom up, top down.
and we all know employees do what they're paid to do, by their boss.
(which is not the popular lie, the tax'd payer)
He was the head of the New York Fed...who couldn't master Turbo-Tax software...somehow.
He's a fucking tool and everyone knows it.
Personality disorder?
He's a fucking sociopathic demon.
Wake Up - Shumer (S:NY)needs 86 billion to repair NY and NJ - he can only get from the House. The tables are about to turn. What a pathetic story this all is.....................
Funny how "Rise Above" looks a lot like "Kicking the Can"
CNBC pushing Rise Above is like cigarette companies decrying smoking. What a fucking joke, deck chairs on the Titanic.
Sorry boys, you are all fucked. Too late now. All your paper wealth is about to evaporate. Physical Stuff the only protection
No debt ceiling. Yeah, that is the ticket.
The dominos keep falling.
Weimar Amerika.
Doesn't this mean the Dubya temporary tax-cuts go away come Jan 1st?
Both sides must be drooling at the idea...obviously, everyone in Congress WANTS to raise taxes, they just don't want anyone to THINK they want to raise taxes.
How are we going to pay their salaries if we don't start generating some more revenue?
I'm not falling for the 3rd headfake! Risk wants to sell off/ Ill catch the buy stops getting hit!
Yo Yen,
Sell off early December? Or a end month messy closing of books? Re: Hedge funds holding a sh*t load of USDs hence the DXY not being too bearish.
Futures just took a hit.
We will take a turn down but inflation is massive and no matter what euro bears, dollar kings, and meth addicts say, we won't see a collapse in the stock market again. The dollar is likely to be the next thing to go (that or another like currency) and even if cash runs from one fiat currency to another the confidence will be lost in the structure of the system.
Fiat will spiral out of control. What will happen to bonds? Stocks? It won't matter when the underlying price is kept in an investment that has lost faith and confidence.
That is still aways out. Look for 12,700 on the DJ, 1.275 eur/usd to be tested during the next couple weeks. PMs will likely remian in the channel they are currently trading.
They will make a last minute back room deal to continue talking about the debt.
In the mean time they will raise or remove the debt limit so they can once again be happy and continue to spend like drunken sailors.
Everyone should know the routine by now. The have start worrying about their next re-election campaign which is much more important to them.
if they eliminate the checks and balances on the debt ceiling obummer will tell uncle warren to have the US upgraded to AAAA. so it's all good.
Uncle Warren wants Dimon for Treas. Sec. that tells you all you need to know about Buffet and Dimon.
When are these criminals going to be prosecuted?
Elliott Spitzer where are you?
I am fed up. Was laid off 2 months back, husband was laid off last month. He actually made the most this past year, about $74K - BUT the take home was $42K. Not all of that is Fed of course, we have FICA, union dues, state, city, county, retirement, FUTA, planned savings, and I think I'm missing a few. There is something wrong when take home pay is 60% of what you would normally earn. I'm applying for food stamps (SNAP) out of spite - with 3 kids the $630 monthly is $230 more than I spend a month and I will turn the extra in to rice, lentils, beans and other long term storage.
It's too hard to escape the system. Unless people stop paying taxes and these crazy "fees", nothing will change. It's impossible for the lowly hourly slave to opt out of getting taxes taken out of the paycheck. This revolution will be up to the business - more jobs for cash or barbarous relics would be a start.
SNAP:
A family may have liquid resources (cash, checking accounts, stocks, bonds, etc.) of up to $2,000. With one or more family members who are disabled or age 60 or over, the resource limit is $3,250.
Benefit Determination
If eligible, the amount of benefits received is determined by household size and adjusted gross income after these deductions:
- http://dss.sd.gov/images/bullet.gif); margin-bottom: 6px;">a standard deduction.
- http://dss.sd.gov/images/bullet.gif); margin-bottom: 6px;">a 20 percent earned income deduction.
- http://dss.sd.gov/images/bullet.gif); margin-bottom: 6px;">a deduction for dependent care.
- http://dss.sd.gov/images/bullet.gif); margin-bottom: 6px;">a limited deduction for medical expenses for elderly or individuals who are disabled.
- http://dss.sd.gov/images/bullet.gif); margin-bottom: 6px;">a limited deduction for excess shelter care expenses.
Pre-Screening ToolTo help determine if you are eligible for SNAP benefits, you can use an online pre-screening tool provided by USDA Food and Nutrition Service.
I wonder if liquid includes the gold "lost" in the sunken boat?
If you don't tell them they don't look. Pretty simple actually. I have a friend whose wife was having health issues, his contract job was bringing in diddly at the time, and money was running low, and she was on non pay sick leave.
He has a paid for truck worth around $20k, she had a paid for accord worth 15k. Don't put those down, or the paid for four wheeler, etc. The workers that hand these out don't give a shit. You act like it is thier money, they are paid to give away money.
Same with USDA home loans and anything else, they don't check the checking accounts you don't put down.
FUCK this shit. The idiots are in charge. It's over.
You would be crazy to think this was scripted.
Taxes up, tax revenue down, January 1, 2013
Collapse by 2014?
Can we just completely ignore the Republican Party's claims of fiscal conservativism if they approve an unlimited debt ceiling?
Only if you're a donkey. Now, if you're an elephant, then, yes. Then again, if you live in a blue state probably yes. However, if you have a zip code in a red state, no.
Or, you could just not give a fuck.
They really don't deserve to be an elephant, more like porky the pig. An elephant will not cross an unsafe structure, as in a bridge. These GOPer's will head full trot off an unfinished bridge.
They know they can't solve this, much less in a couple of weeks (that's particularly funny, a couple of weeks). No, they are studying the masterful Euro-putz never ending gangs fab-gabathon on how to perpetuate a rolling fubar'ed bankruptcy cleptocratic mock-legislative (stone dead) body with leadership touting a relatively tiny bitty tax raise as the magix elixir. Keep it rolling on, raise that debt limit and spread the happiness around.
No debt ceiling?
Reid also wanted to tie the debt ceiling in with all this fiscal cliff stuff.
That's a tell.
Now the negotiations can get fun.
It's all one and the same.
double entry.
Down 4 ES handles!!!!
Here comes the flush!!!
It almost gave back 60% of the GAINS for the day!!!
How about we cut through the all the bullshit and institute a flat rate, no loophole , 25% tax rate. Wouldn't that effectively lower the middle class rate by about 5%, and raise the rate on the upper class by about 10% and end all of this bickering about fairness in the process? Its not like it will make any difference anyway in the grand scheme of things.
What do you think, my fellow ZHers?
A picture of a Shit would be more fitting, Huh Tyler's?
I couldn't care less how this "fiscal cliff" thing is going, we know what the outcome will be, lots of senseless debate, debt ceiling raised (or eliminated), small tax increases here and there, and a shitload more spending, same as last time, rinse and repeat.
Especially in the current dysfunctional market environment, it amazes me that you ascribe any given market movement to a specific driver such as Obama being "uncompromising" in the bogus cliff "negotiations." C'mon, this type of "analysis" is what one can expect from local tv news muppets. ZH readers are beyond this type of pure speculative bullshit, aren't they?
Lets see, Boehner says we want to make a deal. Obama says he wants to make a deal. The market rallys on politicians words and promises. A "deal" will be made non-the-less at the last minute. Tax incentives will be going away as part of it. Obama tried last year to end the tax haven status of municiple bonds. Bernank said, after there was some speculation by certain prognosticators that there would be a deluge of municiple bond defaults, that the municiple bond market demand will always be strong because of the large number of conservative investors.
How strong will it be if the tax exempt status is removed, which Boehner says is on the table? These fools do not understand that the demand is strong for these bonds only because of the tax haven. Once remove, look out below. I hope these fools do end the tax haven. One way or another this mother is going to go down hard eventually. Ending the tax haven will bring this fiasco to an end and we can finally finish the badly needed reset. Gold will then make it's true inflation adjusted adjustment . . . and then some:)
Jimmy was head of the NY FED for crst's sake, right in the middle of the 08 bail outs..call jim jim what you will, he can spend OPM better than a ex wife of DonaldTrump. of course he wants no limits to his spending..
for those who see it a compramise for tax incr..remember DHLS took that money and bought the millions of rounds of ammo..TSA used it for more pediophile's to molest your children in public..EPA stopped energy jobs..we need much smaller gov..as in R Pauls vision of no over seas military bases w across the board cuts.
More tax,more FEES,more inflation.My creditors will not get paid,oh well.