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S&P Regains 50DMA As Bonds/Stocks Rally Post-Europe

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Early macro data that was mixed (retail sales, Kansas Fed, Claims, some GDP ugly) saw stocks limp a little off the overnight hope highs but once the day-session opened in the US we were off to the races with stop-runs galore triggered by Boehner (down), Reid (up and down), Schumer (up) as the fiscal cliff idiocy hangs Damocles-like over every algos trigger finger. Treasuries largely ignore the afternoon schizophrenia - trending lower in yields as once Europe closed the USD drifted lower and bonds and stocks were bought in a 'we-heart-USA' style. High-yield credit had outperformed in the mid-afternoon but stumbled a little - notably after news of the SVU PE deal failed to fund. Commodities had a good day in general though we note that Gold/Silver is at its lowest level in nearly nine months as Silver has significantly bounced off its spike lows this week. Gold and stocks continue to recouple with the latter more volatile but the anchoring on VWAP and spike-to-stop-run swings are making the intraday behavior of equity indices become a little more farcical by the day.

 

S&P 500 futures had quite a day...

...closing back above its 50DMA

 

Post EU Close - USD drifted lower and Stocks and Treasuries were bid...

 

and across the capital structure ETFs (HYG outperformed, TLT was signalling more weakness and VXX and SPY clung to one another)...

 

Commodities continues to push higher...

 

but Gold/Silver is now at near nine-month lows...

 

So while all the chatter today will be about the political swings - the real 'regime' shift was a major decoupling after Europe closed... on weakness.

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 


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Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

boehner rises one day, next day limp

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Martdin
Martdin's picture

You know, I heard there's a pill for that.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Sad news: the great President and Statesman George H. W. Bush is near death in a Houston hospital.

This loss would be incalcuable.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

another one of your Keynesian theories? 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Let's hope it's fatal.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

. . .

"would be"?

It's not like the dude isn't gonna die..  Just one person in a family of great usurpers of American freedom. His throat should have been cut through with a rusty spoon by a penniless starving child in Iraq. Fucking head of the CIA's heroin cartel. It will take a 1000-page book to document all the traitorous crooked dealings of the "Family of Secrets". Flush that turd already, the world will be a better place.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

the sad face of oligarchy america; now hooked on the Jill Kellys  of this world to get a hard on. All lost in the decay of  post consumption hi-drama of uncontrolled over-spend. It looks like the Oligarchs are getting ragged; bewildered, tired and dissipated in insurmountable debt; if only the fiat pump could never stop, like the fount of eternal youth in promised land of home of brave.

Yes we can kick the can! 

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 ECB, the bank of  " forebearance"/ Send us your shit and we will finance it!

   Long live MarK Carney!  Merve the Swerve is juxtapost!

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

“Fiscal Cliff” – Increasingly Likely & Desirable?

http://investmentwatchblog.com/fiscal-cliff-increasingly-likely-desirable/

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL! Wow...so according to this article they have to come up with $600 billion...conclusion is basically it will be taken out of precious metals, and then all will be well and 'back to normal"?  

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Russell 2000 on fire the last few days.  

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Do to the GREAT strength of the USA market, cough cough! You know---THE great housing boom that has stopped falling---for now.

Humans may be no smarter than dumb algos?

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess pumping in $85 billion a month under MBS has to show some kind of lifting effect.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

It's apparant that some asshole in the whitehouse ok'd spending $700M to ramp up the market last night because they knew that boner would piss all over negotiations. They probably ordered todays pathetic market action.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Once again/ GOD Bless Tyler!

 He makes it real. His crew is awesome!

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

I hear that stocks are gonna crash with the US$, the euro. I even hear that oceans will rise above mountains and that terrorists will kill us all if I don't take my belt off before boarding a plane. I also read stories that try and explain how computers think. And then I fucking spend time on a message board to write messages that some won't read and most won't understand. And all that makes me feel good inside because I feel so much smarter than 'experts' for taking care of the people I love without bulshitting the world.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

OMG...not the 50 day moving average.

That's even worse than the 51 day moving average!  And don't even get me started on the 52 day moving average!

This is for sure somehow significant due to the roundness of the number and the ease of understanding!

Signed,

Naive Dumb Ass

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The only thing not up in the brave new farsical world of endless money printing....gold and silver.

What a complete joke.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment tawse57
tawse57's picture

So this much talked about and much anticipated DOW/NASDAQ crash that is going to take 10% minimum off stock prices - but loads of people say 20% at least and perhaps even 30% - WHERE THE FECK IS IT???

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right...its 'after the election' now....we heard for a whole year all the pumping of it all was just 'for the election'...now thats over and $600 billion has to be 'come up with' and still all we have is magically rising markets? From 1 fantasy novel plot line right into the next!

BTW, -10%, big deal!

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment tawse57
tawse57's picture

Yep, I agree - a 10 percent correction would be nothing. It would not even take us back to late Summer.

All these doomers were saying this time last year that the markets were about to crash 20 or 30 percent and what happened - they rose and rose. Now a 10 percent 'crash' would be nothing.

But here are the doomsters writing again about the crash always just around the corner, always going to be tomorrow... Where was the DOW last Nov and Dec and where is it today? Where will it be next Nov and Dec?

I have been a big bear for several years now and I have been completely and utterly wrong on the DOW and NASDAQ. Time that us perma-bears woke up to reality.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Remember it's bonus season. Ponzi Street always gets to transparently play up the markets to line their pockets in December. And everyone that thinks the Fed is invincible uses the Santa rally to buy their stupid holiday shit.

The Fed and the markets are FUCKED. They don't have a clue what to look out for. Whenever you slip or drop something, that moment is past. When the ponzi blows up, it's going to be like the moment after you hit your hand with a hammer or cut yourself. You think, "SHIT, why was I doing it like that? I should have known better." As it will be with the financial system.

They'll panic and drop to their knees begging like 'a Paulson'. I wouldn't buy the S&P over 400 points, that shit ain't got no clothes. When the big-boys get hit (i.e. all the 'cloud' bandwagon corps) - BLOOD will be running on Wall Street. Fuck you Geithner, fuck you Bernanke, and double-FUCK YOU Dimon. (and toss in all the globalist CEOs worldwide - Merry Fuck You Christmas!!)

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Solon the Destroyer
Thu, 11/29/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

whoever is running that FB HFT argo is sure to get a hefty year-end bonus.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

yes, because somehow Facebook figured out how to monetize mobile without actually doing anything. Facebook has passed the four year mark of being cool.

Cool has about a four year shelf life. What was cool four years ago can no longer be cool, because those that made it cool have moved on, and the new blood making the next thing cool can't pick what was cool before, because it isn't cool to retrend.

In all seriousness that statement is 100% true. Look at MySpace, about a four year run of real popularity and then Facebook came out. iPhone peaked with the iPhone4 and then the GalaxyIII started to take over. The youth define cool, because honestly adults don't really care because they have to worry about real bills. The trendsetters in High School can only set a trend until they graduate. Then the next wave comes in. Apple was lucky that they had the iPhone to replace the iPod just as it was starting to age.

Hollywood figured this out with the old standard of five year series. The first year builds a base, if it lasts you have about four good years before suport starts to wane and you overstay your welcome.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Exactly!!!

I'm just wondering if Marissa has four or five more Alibabas to sell?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 00:43 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

Excellent analysis and very cool, seriously. I think the iPod is probably the most overpriced (as they all are) Apple product.

Thu, 11/29/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Apparently horse trading on The Hill is a tradeable event...not that the New York media would ever say that. Obviously all us plebes will have to wait for the hard copy to see the result. The "upper crust" (aka the Government people worried about their constituents...which might be you and me...who knows) are busy trying to maintain a stable source of funding for the fiscal...is it year? Quarter? (Insert your "ha, ha" here) there is no doubt this discussion matters for The Street...beats me why. I've never been in a position to...ahem..."arbitrage regulators." I'm sure the fur is flying fast and furious tho! (Cue to 20 "VIP's" fast asleep and "in charge.") the only thing I'll be watching for is AN agreement...not THE agreement.

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