Taking Advantage Before Year-End

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

“The substance of the eminent Socialist gentleman’s speech is that making a profit is a sin, but it is my belief that the real sin is taking a loss.”
                  -Winston Churchill
Losses come in two general forms; mistakes and market reactions. While the media concentrates on the equity markets and dividends and puts and calls and all manner of things related to stocks one of the real winners of this year has been the bond markets. The compression has been extraordinary and whatever index you choose will bear this out. Compression as caused by the flooding of the world with money by the central banks is the real cause of this and as we enter the end of the year some thought should be given to your positions. The “dangling participle” here is the obvious; what to do with the money if profits are taken. I can hear some grandmother in the Bronx’s retort; “Such a problem?”
“We give advice, but we cannot give the wisdom to profit by it.”
                   -Francois de la Rochefoucauld
The latest Greek crisis has been resolved for the moment in the way that it always gets resolved which is to give them more money and pile on more debt. The numbers were falsified once again, the rhetoric was another mass of purposeful confusion, the “ifs, buts, thats and the others” were plentiful and Europe made one more mockery of itself but what else is new. The Spanish banks are to be helped economically, 60% of the workforces will be laid off for these troubled institutions, the Spanish economy will worsen, unemployment will rise to 28-30% and all of the EU and IMF projections will look like the fantasies that they are some months out but another round of money is tossed against the wall and more debt added to the stockpile. The game remains the same. Yields are held down in Europe by the brandishing sword of Mr. Draghi as he will “Save the World” and the recession in Europe continues unabated.
“These earthly godfathers of Heaven's lights, that give a name to every fixed star, have no more profit of their shining nights than those that walk and know not what they are.”
                   -William Shakespeare
In America we face our fiscal cliff or perhaps our bungee jump and while no resolution is in sight the one thing that we can hang our hats on is that we will face higher taxes. These may be the ones currently proposed or they may be totally new ones as defined by some sort of compromise. Given this 99% possibility it may be wise and in my opinion it is wise to take some profits now before the end of the year. I would start with bonds that are trading within a hairsbreadth of Treasuries or even through them and redeploy further out the curve in bonds that have some reasonable chance of continued compression. I think the compression will continue as the policy of the Fed and the ECB does not change for some period of time and the flows of money keep forcing the compression. I would look at Municipals versus taxables, I especially like the space in Munis where the credits are “BBB” which is a kind of dead space for many investors in Munis and it can be exploited as the gap here will lessen as people/institutions realize that the yield differentiation between “BBB” corporates and “BBB” Munis is far too wide. I am not talking here about vacant land and the like and you must do the credit homework but decent revenue bonds and G.O.’s in this space are a good bet now in my opinion. You can find many credits now where the absolute yield, forget the tax implications, are vastly better than similar corporate names. Here also, in the case of a reversal, municipalities can raise taxes while corporations could have difficulty making profits.
Finally I suggest taking some profits now because of two common sense principles. The first is that rates are as low as we have seen them in our lifetimes and the markets have a funny way of reversing when you least expect it. The second is that compression has been so great, so magnified by the actions of the central banks, that any slight hint of a change in policy could throw the proverbial wrench into the mechanism. What the markets hand out they can take away and usually in a heartbeat so that sound countenance must be placed upon the advantage that we have been given. It could be taxes, or an unexpected event or politics or the accumulation of debt that changes things but the wise, in my opinion, will take some advantage of our good fortune to date!
“Fortune, that with malicious joy
Does man her slave oppress,
Proud of her office to destroy,
Is seldom pleased to bless.”
             -John Dryden

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Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Even prominent dealer is find Nickel is core of cheap imitation alloy.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Taking Advantage Before Year End = Stocking Up On KY Jelly By The Metric Ton Load, bitchez.

Just 2 examples OF MANY to demonstrate the pain train DEFINITELY INBOUND. Assume the position.

P.J. O'Rourke:

"If you think health care is expensive now, just wait until it's free." 

Unaffordable Cost Seen for Some Under Affordable Care Act

...The landmark health-care law, which survived the threats of repeal and a Supreme Court review, now confronts another hurdle: living up to expectations. As the administration spells out the details, many uninsured will be surprised at how much they will have to pay. It may involve “very substantial amounts,” and “there still will be a significant number of people who can’t afford health coverage,” said Ron Pollack, head of Families USA, a consumer group that backs the law.


A family of four earning $75,000 will pay $7,125 in annual premiums and as much as $8,333 in co-pays and deductibles, according to a preliminary estimate by the Kaiser Family Foundation. A single 40-year-old earning $30,000 will pay $2,509 in premiums and as much as $3,125 in cost sharing. For a 60- year-old making $40,000, the amount will be $3,800 in premiums and up to $4,167 in out-of-pocket costs, according to Kaiser.

Do you see? All those Everest, Pajamascollegeconnection.com & University of Phoenixicans, who are extended-extended-unemployed or making minimum wage will be covered, families will catch that much needed "break," and seniors will rejoice! Those MANDATORY premiums and co-pays are only equal to an approximate 212% of most peoples' net-negative savings/extra cash!!!

Many more will go on welfare. Everyone will be doing it! Why pay 20% to 30% of your income in mandatory premiums and co-pays (at a time when the net cost of basic necessities for many who do still work wipes out their income and then some)?

All the coolest kids will go on welfare (not Galt):

Go on Welfare


No wonder the insurance companies "capitulated." How unselfish of them. A 40 year old will be forking over around 1 out of every 4 dollars they work to earn just for medical premiums and co-pays, and will be PENISlized if they don't "voluntarily comply"...that's, like, a totally awesome deal.



Unemployment Benefits Cost: $520 Billion

In case the "subtlety" of that headline and its import were lost on any/some, that's 1/2 trillion  in BernanxBux expenditures for what most deem to be a "relatively minor component" of the U.S. Budget.

Welcome to the recovery, BITCHEZ!

Oquities's picture

take profits now because $100,000 in cap gains taxes will soon go from $15,000 to as much as $23,800.  take profits now because taxes on $100, 000 in dividend income will soon go from $15,000 to as much as $39,000. 

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Pre-1982 pennies: lots of copper but labor intensive to sort

Nickels: easy to sort, currently little metal value premium

Silver Eagles: high-ish premium, but precious w/ speculation potential

Gold Eagles: My choice!

FeralSerf's picture

Pre-65 silver coins have little metal premium.  A 1964 quarter will still, like in 1964, buy a gallon of gas or a decent hamburger.  They may very well become the people's money in the not so distant future.

The Kleptocrats will be much more interested in eagles than '64 quarters.

zerozulu's picture

99%er taking profit! Its unpatriotic and will be considered terrorist.

Mark Carney's picture

<-----short FB now

<-----short FB now and get balls ripped off

Lin S's picture

Not sure what to do with my IRA.  I took about 18% out already and was set to stop there, but I worry.

I am thinking about taking another 10%+/- out before year's end - am I being irrational if I do?  Irresponsible?  Reactionary?  Prudent?

Please advise ('cause I am very torn about what to do), and thanks for any help.



FeralSerf's picture

Jim Sinclair says to take it all out if you want access to it.  It's better to pay some tax and have the rest left over than let it get swallowed by a new federal program instituted to make sure you don't "lose it" to some bullion dealer.

MachoMan's picture

The problem with all of these situations is that they're only answerable in retrospect...  so, I'd focus less about the trading profit/opportunity cost issues and focus more on your emotional needs.  If you are worried about the money sitting in your IRA AND you have something to purchase with that money that would make you feel safe (no longer worry), then do it...  However, do not fall into the trap of withdrawing the money because you are worried about what to do with it and then worry about what happens with the withdrawn money or assets that you purchase with the withdrawn money.

If your worry is abnormal, then it may drive you to be irrational...  we have no way of knowing.  However, given your brief description, it seems to me that you're firing on all cylinders so to speak.  I would focus much less on whether the investment is "good" per se, given whether it will be good is largely outside of your control and amounts to little more than a dart throwing competition.  My suggestion is to choose a vehicle that will allow you to continue a similar purchasing power in a new currency regime and/or that provides considerable utility to you and your family.  All will have value.  Best of luck.

odatruf's picture

I agree with Macho's take on which aspect worries you and whether you'd actually 'solve' that problem.

But you didn't give us enough info about your situation vis a vie taxes as well as any early withdrawal penalty to make an informed decision.

in 2010, I took a chunk of my 401k knowing I'd pay taxes on it plus the 10% penalty in order to buy a business that I knew would more than offset that loss. Since I had little reportable income that year, the actual cost to me wasn't much more than the penalty plus whatever I miss on the account's growth going forward.  So far, the ROI on the business has been a multiple of that cost.

But that isn't always going to be the case.


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Are you saying that a bird in the hand is worth a hundred in COMEX?

CPL's picture

"We're advising all of of our top tier business class client to go long sharp sticks and flint rock."

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Because lower tier population is long pitchfork and brandish torches, maybe is advise also go long on fortified castle installation!?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"A bunker mentality is not a bad thing to have for certain people of means." - Warren "Swimming Naked" Buffoon Buffett

CPL's picture

Who actually owns a pitchfork anymore?  That would require a working population that farms rather than play farmville.  March with a cheap chineses wood pressed brooms lighting the way with an iPad app.


The castle angle is sort of interesting though. 




Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Russia is still make pitchfork! 1960 factory quota set for number of fork, so some is 6, 7, even 12, but all fork is sharp for ass of politician!

GubbermintWorker's picture

I prefer Russian made Saiga rifles.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

But most is ship to Syria and Iran. Maybe can buy from North Korea?

zrussell's picture

Is the fiscal cliff (tax hikes) affecting tax year 2012?

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It might.......it might not. It's all part of the grand illusion....er...."compromise". They could make certain tax hikes etc radioactive retroactive.

<He who owns the Gold makes the rules.>

CPL's picture

You already know the rule of govenrment.  The first time it was mentioned is where it's retroactive to.


Which would take us to 2009.

SheepDog-One's picture

Any taxes are of course retroactive....any cuts will of course not 'take effect' until 10 years from now and will never actually happen.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

"It will never happen"

But is fun watch theater!

buzzsaw99's picture

Greed is good. [/Gordon Gekko]

SheepDog-One's picture

Take profits now while the FED casino is still paying out....soon that may not be the case.

UGrev's picture


<-Nothing Burger


I called Jan 1 back in september ..  122 days .. 


place your bets.. 

Jason T's picture

what january 1st?  tell me!!!!  What happens??


UGrev's picture

The big KA-BOOM.  Read the article I linked to.

Yen Cross's picture

 Taking advantage of "Indentured Servitude" No Thanks, ( fuck off/ beat it)   I saw this shit storm back in the 80's<






youngman's picture

If you are just starting to make your decisions...you are too late

TruthInSunshine's picture

What about those who chose not to play the game in the 1st place?

HAL, answer me. Can you please at least open the pod bay doors?

GoinFawr's picture

I don't recall choosing to be born onto a planet with other people living on it, so I have no responsibilities to them that raised me. (yeah Dad, you heard me- j/k)

Obligation is the bane of freedom!


Seriously though, I sincerely wish you the best of luck in realizing your dream of toll sidewalks, privatized air, and EPA-less laissez faire tap water. 

Hope you and yours been saving your pre-1966 pennies and boning up on your electromechanicalstructural engineering, organic chemistry and microbiology Phd's! Bonne chance renaissance man!

Darkness's picture


buzzsaw99's picture

It is my absolute intent to hold the line on taxes. Jon Corzine

Yen Cross's picture

 Buzz you are spot on! It's the middle of the night, and I'm going to pull some moar charts!

  GDP by PIG, and ECB Balance sheets!

buzzsaw99's picture

All we're doing is passing our savings on to our client base. Bernie Madoff

odatruf's picture

Last year, my company delayed revenue till after Jan 1 and paid for as many expense as possible before the end of the year in order to defer as much tax costs as possible. This year, we will be flipping that around and putting as much in profits on the 2012 books as possible.


Mrmojorisin515's picture

i like this guy, but it kinda irks me that he only screams fraud and such with regards to europe

JosephConrad's picture

This is pure prattle! The 'Fiscal Cliff' disappears when students holding unrepayable student loans DEFAULT EN MASS. It disappears when E.U. nations DEFAULT on their FRAUDULENT Derivatives Debts and remove the licenses of OR IMPRISON Third World Debt Collecrtors). Only when citizes of the U.S. and the E.U. REfUSE TO REPAY fraudulent CDS's of all shapes and sizes does the U.S. & international economy return o soemthing remotely relatd to normally. In addition, INDIVIDUAL LEADERS of WALL STREET BANKER 'THEFT CARTERL' MUST BE IMPRISONED for at least 3-5yrs. and forwever denied participation in the financial marketplace.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, the 'fiscal cliff' ONLY appears and becomes an issue at the end of every year? Utter nonsense. But the prior 11 months debt wasnt a problem at all and they loaded as much as they could....all just a puppet show for the morons.

odatruf's picture

It's like having to fund the decennial census through an emergency appropriation, because they couldn't see it coming...

madbraz's picture

The suggestion to shift to Munis is terrible - munis have rallied non stop for 2 years.  The yield on 30yr AAA muni paper is 2.56% right now, 24 bps lower than 30yr treasuries - a massive bubble, if you ask me.  The yield for that 30yr muni has fallen some 172 bps in one year, it's in fantasy land.

LT Treasuries are the best bet.

Zap Powerz's picture

Fuck these assholes that want more of my money.  I pay enough already.  I pay more than my fair share.  I pay way more than I consume.

Here is an idea.  Make the 47% that dont pay taxes START paying taxes and leave those of us who already pay taxes alone.  Fuck the freeloaders.  Make them pay their fair share.  Put their skin in the game so they give a shit how money is spent.  If they dont start paying then they should NOT be allowed to vote...ever.

Im sick of this cuntry.  Im sick of the freeloaders (both the poor and the super rich fucks that dont pay shit because they are well connected to the govt teat).

If you cant stand on your own two feet and survive without govt assistance then fuck you with a sharp rusty object.

Have a nice fucking day.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yes I'm not holding my tongue for 'politeness' any longer at all either....fuck em all in this clownshow, and if someone doesn't like it well then fuck em double!.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"If you cant stand on your own two feet and survive without govt assistance then fuck you with a sharp rusty object."


I agree, but those companies with fat government contracts might not, and I hear that some of them are pretty well armed.

GoinFawr's picture

"If you cant stand on your own two feet and survive without govt assistance then fuck you with a sharp rusty object."

Mittens called, he wants his campaign slogan back.

 Does that include everyone under the age of 12? Or over the age of 80 who was forced to pay into social security every single paycheque of their producing lives? How about anyone who is in prison on wacky tabacky charges?  Do you direct this hate at maimed and disabled veterans that were drafted into service too? Are you some sort of eugenicist, or just a Logan's Runner?

I know, I know, you're gonna be 19 for the rest of your life, and the moment you popped outta your momma you hit the ground running,  and never looked back or took nuffin' from nobody.

"Some folks are born silver spoon in hand,

Lord, don't they help themselves, y'all.

And when the taxman comes to the door,

The house look like a rummage sale.

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no millionaire's son, no no.

It ain't me, it ain't me, I ain't no fortunate one, no."-CCR

That said, your final bankster solution makes me go a big rubbery one. We're all Frogmarchists now. Say, aren't we going to need some o dat abhored ol 'gubmint assisstance' to get the prosecuting we want done  a'rolling? Or are you suggesting that if we drop the facade of public oversight of the legal system and just let the banks fund private courts outright they will put themselves in prison out of the decency derived from their own skeevy little hearts?