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Chart Of The Day: The Wageless, Savingsless US Consumer
For a country in which the consumer is responsible for 70% of GDP, one wonders: without savings and without wages where will this "recovery" we hear so much propaganda about and which every investment bank this week went all in on (just like they did in the end of 2010 only to admit their error 4 months later) come from? Because every now and then it helps to step back from the trees and observe the forest. Behold: the forest.
Oh wait, we know where growth will come from: inventories
Source: Bloomberg Brief
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Don't be stupid. Most of the population of the USA doesn't have anywhere to grow their own food, and if they had access to the land, they wouldn't be able to afford to pay the taxes to keep it for subsistence farming.
Our biggest problem is our loss of morals - EVERYTHING stems from that.
Yeah well you know the old saying "lead by example". When everything is stacked against you some people have the tendency to just say fuck it. The US is led by the biggest group of crooks and terrorists on the planet and you expect it's children to behave differently? I'm not advocating anything, it's basically a monkey see monkey do situation and the word moral and gov't have never gone together as far as I can recall.
I'm with you, I'm just saying why we are where we are. Govt evolves to evil, the Founders knew this, hence the American Revolution & resultant Constitution. Not perfect, but the best thing that has ever happened for mankind in all of history. People can be divided into 2 camps: 1) those that pray for others 2) those that prey on others. The balance has tipped over to #2 unfortunately.
The first Great Depression in the 30´s people still had morals...not now....people used to say thank you ...not now...they demand it and they will steal it from you and kill you for it...the new morality
My parents grew up in the great depression. They were 2 of the greatest people I knew. Priceless was their unconditional love & support, the absolute best thing a kid can have, and is what I'm giving & teaching my kids. We did not have much money, but I had the best childhood one could have. No video games, no iPhones nor iPads, no computers, no satellite/cable TV with 500 channels of info-junk & trash. And gold was still money, barely. Fast foward 40 years and we land right in the middle of Gomorrah.
So what you are saying is that there is a chance that everything will turn out OK? Maybe one in a million, but a chance, right?
"So you're saying there's still a chance."
Lloyd Christmas.
Draghi: Crisis has shown we were living in a "Fairy World"
~Via the Guardian's rolling coverage.
Response:
As a child I was told never to play inside a fairy fort because the fairies might get angry and put a curse on me. [from Evil Fairies of Ireland]
the socialist take on this:
- first corporations made lot of savings at the first stage of the crisis by cutting wages
- through complacency, they redistributed these savings to shareholders to make the shares go up (at least partly because of the liquidity tsunami)
- now we have the consequence: erosion of the consumer base, re-leveraging by households to keep buying, negative top lines for corporations
=> cash flows diverted from workers to shareholders, rewarding of capital instead of work, and corrupt politicians disguising this policy as solidarity with the poorest. But outside of strongly diminishing cash flows to equity holders, there is no way to keep on going for long before a re-recession with both households and corporations with nil savings, decreasing top line, and nowhere in sight to cut cost without cutting output.
So, what you're saying is, when people make less money they save less money. Brilliant.
OF COURSE SAVINGS RATE IS HIGHEST IN 1980!!
Imagine this....not a CD (although I would have tons of them at 15%+) BUT BUYING LONG BONDS IN THE LATE 1970S....You have a rate that will never be seen again, the teens!!!!
Ok....NOW.....YOU HANG ONTO THESE BONDS....AS THEY DETERIORATE IN YIELD AND POP IN PRICE....UNTIL THE BOND MATURES!!
That is a sore dick...you cannot beat it!!! A fortune in interest and capital appreciation while you wait....
GONE ARE THOSE DAYS....INTEREST SHOULD BE OUTLAWED.....IT'S SUCH A FUCKING JOKE
Outlawed = send armed thugs to threaten or to physically force any interest taking into black market.
No interest = you value a car in 10 years exactly the same as the same car right now. No penalty whatsoever for uncertainity of the future, you will absolutely not change your mind over these 10 years. Only if you have 0 time preference natural rate of interest is also 0.
I dread the day that some stores go "all chip" and eliminate the check out clerks.
If you want to save huge$ on your grocery bill I have some tips for you:
Buy lots of stuff that is too large to put in bags like dog food, water etc all at once.
Don't offer to take it out of your cart. Tell them to scan it. Don't help them.
Pick the most tired and hungover looking cashier you can find. If they fuck up and miss stuff look for this cashier next time.
I've saved as much as $100 on one trip using these techniques.
I only use this method at large, global asshole outlets not any smaller operations, what are left of them.
OT. There goes the gold beat-down!!! Right on time.
8:20?
Make dat money...........
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
....and spend it on gold. It's on sale!
If you're short we've got some torn Victoria's Secret panties from Black Friday you might be interested in.
I think we are on the same page.......
And you're expecting fireworks on friday during a shopping season? Not going to happen. Spend what $ you have left everything is A-ok.
well, when the term recovery means to you only bankers and fellow 0.5% who are all about the market then there is a recovery. if you really want to destroy the economy but help your friends, you add more qe so you have inflation and wages drop but markets are maintained. It's why bernanke and the fomc needs to be put on trial for economic crimes against humanity and receive appropriate punishment. there realy needs to be an economic crimes against humanity crime for the world court. Why is it only violent death. same should apply to environmental crimes. these folks belong in labor camps
first world man without a safety net!
Like in Greece today. These men cannot even go and fend for themselves in the wilds as there are no more "wilds", it all belongs to the Oligarchs.
Don't worry, soon there will be huge increased consumer spending --- on FOOD...
http://www.squidoo.con/food-shortages
I got busy on Black Friday spending! Bought some more of that heavy barbaric relic, atomic number 79...
Silly goldbugs! It's spending that matters. If ony govermnet gets bold enough in ecouraging it we will surely be out of this mess and into hyperinf... I mean into sustainable growth and full employment.
There is likely to be ongoing softness in wages and savings moving forward, making increased stimulus in the form of quantitative easing an attractive strategy to help ensure robust recovery.
Thanks Ben!
I'm sure glad you have our backs. The only beacon left in these darkest of times. Really, thank you.
The Beard hath spoken! Let it be done!
The best thing we can do is to continue telling everyone they are screwed by the Jews or the bankers or the elite or someone who can be credibly proclaimed the oppressor. It has worked beautifully for the black americans. I mean afterall, why would they even try given their obvious persecution. And for everyone else, the worst thing that could happen is that a large number of people would actually go out and try to compete. Want to see even more of a wealth gap, just tell everyone to quit because they just can't win. The easiest way to win is to make your opponent think he hasn't a chance.
With limitless money handed out to bankers who play with HFT all day and work on their mega-bonuses, who needs to consumers? The only need for "consumers" is to pass any losses onto.
There is no way we get to be a type 1 planet on the Kardashev scale,
we are stuck at 0.
(warning, the following is Theoretical physics, roll one if you got some)
http://www.wimp.com/humanrace/
BUt we can get to level 8 on the Kardashian scale with a few more vacation photo shoots.
boingggggg!
Boehner vs. Reid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkiJDw1Kung (Best Bugs Bunny Ever !!)
This calls for austerity in the USA! The burden to pay off bank debt must be foisted onto the people at this time of them having no wealth at all. The casino must survive.
Maybe all consumers should just go on strike for a week. We should start a national month of "Non-Consumption". The National Holiday for the 99%'ers.
1. No Video Games
2. No Cars
3. No Ipads
4. No Phones
We could bring the 1%'s to their knees real fast if we just stop buying stupid shit we don't need.
It would be funny to watch the economic numbers reported the following month. There'd probably be no change and then everyone would realize how really rigged the game is.
Never going to happen... At least, not without being forced to do so. Don't worry, the coming hyperinflation will take care of everything.
My 'savings' rate went up if you consider the taxes I pay savings. State went up 67%, property taxes up .2% on home able to be sold for 40% less, Federal up 3% for me given my mix of deductions.
Sucks to be too poor to be in the top .5% that pay low % taxes, and too rich to not have to pay taxes. Meh, middle class is fucked no matter how you figure it.
"Right on Brother" .... The middle class in this country is everyone except the 1%'ers. There is no middle any more....it's 1% vs 99%
You will be able to add Federal gas tax going up shortly. It's a wonderful life.
The chart of the day is always this one: real disposable personal income per capita.
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DPI-Monthly-Update.php
Should be updated any day/minute now.
It is not good. People are making less now than before the recession. And 'we' have a metric assload more debt, mainly politely hidden under carpets and such. Net-net, we are fucked. Thanks Goldman Overlords, and once again, fuck you.
But it seems the majority has decided to just go down partying with the ship. I see lots of brand new ties at work all of a sudden.
Jim, it is amazing isn't it, but haven't we all been programmed/edumacated since the 50's or 60's to not ask too many questions and not attempt to think analytically? To do so makes you a troublemaker/malcontent/terrorist/extremist. Now we see the results.
If we had no hand outs, We'd have no bucks at all, gloom... dispair...and agony on me.
All long term unemployment benefits expire Jan. 2nd. OWS will become a force in America in 2013.
Inventories are going up. If you include the dooms day preppers stock piles.
Yeah, for the 1 in 10,000 who put anything away. The real preppers, who own a year or more per person in food, and maybe some precious metals, are probably in the range of 1 to 100,000. It's going to be interesting, when this thing impodes.
I don't see how that is a good thing. Try to make sense, to the later list you have to add "live in the middle of nowhere".
Either way those 99.999 will come to get your cookies and trust me you won't last long, a couple of days if you manage to pass the "first night" and your body doesn't default on you.
Build more MCD's , Jack in the box and BK and solve the problem. Amerikans enjoy stuffing their faces with crap upon crap.
This web site scares the crap out of me - and I'm not a consumer of the MSM drivel. 401ks are not safe, banks are not safe, so WTF is my best course of action? I can't convert to Gold - I lost my ass in silver even though I'm holding it in hopes of it making a comeback. But seriosly, Tyler, instead of posts about how shitty everything is - how about an article that rank orders investments in light of the coming collapse?
The reverse heirarchy of needs will always be monetized, regulated then taxed, and eventually be taken by force of government.
Some are just a bit ahead of others.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-11-29/nationalizations-take-fr...
Another way to look at it is to stay diversified and adjust your return expectations down to zero real over say ten years.
You only get to keep what YOU put in. If you are lucky. All the eggs will be nibbled at or gobbled.
Personally I have had enough. Debt paydown and cash only (well, a few clinks before that horrid boating accident).
Paper kills. But ironically, cash may be the brand of paper that kills the slowest.
I might be able to help with that:
LIST:
1. Food storage
2. Weapons and Ammo
3. Items for Bartering
4. Toilet paper
I could go on, but you get the idea about my list these days.
30% APR credit cards made for times like these.
I'd like to see a chart of the YOY change in wages relative to the YOY change in the Fed balance sheet. That will make it REAL.
(also, I see 'BloombergBriefs' in the notations - is Uncle Mike launching a new apparel line? if so, please count me out)
Don't worry, the "Job Creators" will save us. Just look at what they have been doing since 08'... oh, wait, never mind.
Money with zero maturity is like 13.7 trillion, so there is a lot of money sloshing around out there. The FED doesn't want that money to move around thus = infation so the big scare is on to keep it hidden in your underwear draw. Unfortunately, a lot of that is in shadow banking vehicles that have no gaurentees.
the beast is on the gobble
and all that matters is we're all headed for it's belly
http://youtu.be/ntmthFyaYzY