This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: Ready For The Apocalypse?

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,

I am not really a doomer. But I do think that societies and individuals that do not prepare for the worst (and hope for the best) are needlessly endangering themselves. Tail risk events happen. An MIT study earlier this year predicted that the global economy would collapse by 2030.

A new national survey by National Geographic and Kelton Research finds some interesting results:

Which cataclysmic movies do Americans worry might come true?

7% of Americans think the Planet of the Apes might come true? Really? 30% of Americans think that the events of Roland Emmerich’s 2012 might occur?

And how prepared do Americans think they are for such events?

But in reality — in terms of what people have actually accomplished — few people seem ready for anything:

9% of people have alternative power sources? 21% have made some attempt to grow their own food? Only 43% have a spare supply of drinking water?

Not prepared at all.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:38 | 3025086 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Ah, an example. Shouldn't he then serve as a complete, perfect example by being the guest of honor at a necktie party? Then we'd have a classic tale with a moral and a pleasant ending.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:20 | 3025625 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

given the current perpetuation of the duality paradigm, I'd say Corzine plays his role well as "Evil" - but trying to sort out his oppostional meme, that's where it might get sticky. . .

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:52 | 3025134 zapdude
zapdude's picture

...but we know how the story ends, and it is an infinitely good ending. 

However, surviving with your body and soul intact to the end will be the greatest test mankind will face.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:09 | 3025144 RichardP
RichardP's picture

Satan is real ...

The Hebrew word translated as satan in the Old Testament is a common noun (not proper noun, therefore not capitalized) which means accuser or adversary (both personal and national) in Hebrew.  The Hebrew word is properly translated as "the satan".  Jesus used the word "satan" in the New Testament, but it was the same Hebrew word defined here.  Referring to someone as "the satan" is the same as saying the accuser or the adversary in English.  Note that the Greek word translated as devil in the New Testament means slanderer or defamer.  It also is a common noun rather than a proper one.  Referring to someone as "the devil" is the same as saying the slanderer or the defamer in English.  When Iran calls the United States the great satan, they are giving an example of this point.  They are calling the United States the great adversary, not the snake from the Garden of Eden.

Much of what has been written about satan and demons from Plato to Dante's Inferno has more in common with Greek mythology than with anything actually said in the Bible.

The concept of the satan is only mentioned four times in all of the thousands of years of the Old Testament time period.  The concept is mentioned only slightly more in the New Testament.  Whatever the satan actually is in the Bible (a person; an office), the satan is actually not that big of a deal in the Bible.  From a Bible perspective (rather than from Plato's or Dante's or Milton's perspectives), the satan is powerless to do anything without asking permission from God.  (Read from Job 1:6 and from Luke 22:31 for proof.)  I take three things away from what the Bible actually says about the satan:

- He cannot touch humans without permission from God;

- Regardless of who (person?) or what (office?) the satan is or is not, when given permission from God to trash Job, he did some pretty powerful stuff with the weather.  Whoever occupies the position of the satan in the Bible may not be the man of Plato's and Dante's writings, but he has some awsome abilities to influence the weather and other things and inflict some serious damage.

- If God gives the satan permission to trash the (people) (economy) (geography) of whatever nation you live in, he (God) would have a reason for doing so.  If that is the case, how is "finding God" and "accepting the atoning sacrifice of Jesus" going to change anything?  God has given satan permission to trash your living space for a reason.  It's not likely you will have any defense against that, "saved" or not.  Unless bringing you to God was the reason God gave the satan permission to trash you in the first place.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:32 | 3025260 Satan
Satan's picture

Pleased to meet you...hope you guessed my name...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:24 | 3025632 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

but what's puzzling, is the Nature of the game. . .

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:26 | 3025740 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

i tell you baby, you're to blame

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 23:29 | 3025835 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I give easement and rest now to thee, dear man.

Come not down the lanes or in our meadows.

And for thy peace I pawn my own soul.



Sat, 12/01/2012 - 13:14 | 3026454 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

"vanity & happiness are incompatible"


Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:13 | 3027016 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

That is why most men...are surprised to see that which they let go by so unregarded and unenjoyed was
precisely their life, was precisely that in expectation of which they lived. . .

It is only in the microscope that our life looks so big. It is an indivisible point, drawn out and magnified by the powerful lenses of Time and Space.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:39 | 3025759 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

do you know the way to bombay?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 23:13 | 3025813 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I got yer bomb bay

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:54 | 3025465 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Satan is the emergent hive-mind of the oligarchy and their paper Beast.  Evil has reached a critical mass of interconnectedness and become sentient.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:52 | 3024904 walküre
walküre's picture

No, hadn't considered that but considering many Americans identify with Honey Boo Boo and unable to even spell apo .. a po calyp ... a  po   ca  lyp  tic .. there apokalybtig

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:15 | 3025181 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"Has anyone considered the possibility that some people do not prepare for a"post apocalyptic world" because they simply do not want to live in such a place and thus, would rather just die and be done with it?"

And many realize that when everyone else is dead or dying there'll be plenty for them so why worry or run around fighting.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:30 | 3025407 forwardho
forwardho's picture

When was the last time you almost drowned? The strongest drive in a human being is self preservation. You may think NOW that you could not go on in that situation. When it hits you will pop a 10 yr old if you think it will keep you alive. A human in its natural state is a very, very ugly creature

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 08:08 | 3026174 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

I believe it was Sun Tzu who said, "A man trying to save his children is the second most dangerous kind of man;  the most dangerous man is the one trying to save himself, because he shoots the other man's kids first".

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:16 | 3024748 zapdude
Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:11 | 3024984 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture



Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:16 | 3024749 formadesika3
formadesika3's picture

<<Only 43% have a spare supply of drinking water?>>

The question was "Which of the following have you ever done to prepare for a potential catastrophe?"

That was probably for Y2K. Remember Y2K?

The % that is currently preparing their own source of water is actually 9%, further down the list.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:17 | 3024752 cygamaczer
cygamaczer's picture

This is how its going down.


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:19 | 3024757 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Southern californians are prepared.  They have 10 million water storage recepticals just one flush away, up in Nor-cal.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:51 | 3025131 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

That's what they think. When the action really heats up us Nor-Cal'ians plan on flushing half as often and only for brown stuff. I pee in the garden already just out of spite.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:14 | 3025196 RichardP
RichardP's picture

Pee for too long and you'll have no garden to pee in.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:21 | 3025227 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Does that keep cougars away?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:08 | 3025351 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Only if you make it a habit of not putting the seat down....

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:30 | 3025637 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

hahahhhahahah, plus many!


oh, and compost toilets guys, start now.

or the old:

if it's yellow

let it mellow

if it's brown

flush it down!

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:38 | 3025658 flyingcaveman
flyingcaveman's picture

Attracts more cougs and keeps the deer away.


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:21 | 3024765 unirealist
unirealist's picture

Water is the big one, the immediate one.  After that, food.  But food is easy to buy and store.  Water is not.

And then comes fuel.  Lots of people will be literally freezing to death in the winter after an economic collapse.  Hard to store fuel, even if you can afford to.

But here's the thing: even if you cover these necessities, your neighbors and friends and extended family won't.

And you can bet on this, that as their own needs grow dire, they will come to believe that they have a right to "share" whatever you have worked so hard to put aside for the crisis.

They'll accuse you of "hoarding."  And whatever gov't still exists will call "hoarding" a heinous crime.

So it is important to store up supplies not only for yourself and family, but also for the small cadre of killers you will have to employ for security guards.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:34 | 3024811 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

but also for the small cadre of killers you will have to employ

I thought thats what the 1/10 ounce silver rounds were for :)

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:56 | 3024927 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm at a loss trying to understand the difficulty of storing water.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:13 | 3024990 viahj
viahj's picture

my townhome complex recently just drained our 2 acre lake by six feet to put in a fishing pier, and we're still techically in a drought....pissed me right off.  that is my source for filtration and fish...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:29 | 3025053 Hi Ho Silver
Hi Ho Silver's picture

It's not difficult, it just requires maintenance. Algae is a bitch.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:25 | 3025240 css1971
css1971's picture

Shelter first, then water. Even without fuel you won't freeze to death if you have a house and some blankets, even if it gets down to -30C outside. In winter without heat though water is just like any other rock. Wood stores in a wood pile no problem. Don't waste fuel on producing heat or light, or charging your iPad. Fuel's for transport.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:02 | 3025698 Seer
Seer's picture

My neighbors (and I) are fine.  I have no need to worry about them.

As far as "fuel" goes, plenty of wood... fossil FUEL is another story (none of it, and esp now with gasoline being laced with ethanol, stores worth a crap).

And, actually, the NUMBER 1 fundamental is SHELTER.  "Shelter" means shelter from the elements.  Find yourself tossed overboard (there goes that gold!) and you'll be wanting shelter MUCH more than food or water.

Water, of course, is needed before food.  Fortunately I'm not at any loss here either.

When thinking about security I'd advise having a good dog (or two, or however many if you can feed them).

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:23 | 3024769 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Good read in "Gundlach sees Kaboom ahead".

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:24 | 3025233 walküre
walküre's picture

Yeah, well Grundlach's vision of Kaboom and my idea of prepping are not compatible. From the article:

He recommends buying hard assets: Gemstones, art and commercial real estate are high on his list. And DoubleLine has been buying the stocks of Chinese companies, U.S. natural gas producers and gold-mining firms because it considers them to be bargains.

Gundlach himself has amassed a contemporary art collection of about 100 pieces, with works by Jasper Johns and Franz Kline. The money manager drew on abstract painter Piet Mondrian's double-line style for the name of his firm and its geometrical, crosshatched logo.

Gundlach, who correctly predicted the subprime mortgage disaster, has a proven record as a prognosticator -- and the performance numbers to go with it. At his former firm, TCW Group Inc., his Total Return Bond Fund (TGLMX) earned an annual average of 7.9 percent in the decade ended in November 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Does he suggest we should load up on CRE as safe havens when the shit hits the fan? Why? Because retail space and office towers will get squatted in? Where's the logic? And contemporary art of relatively unknown entities such as Jasper Johns or Franz Kline? Really? Maybe to whack someone over the head when they're intruding into my house?

Grundlach doesn't seem to have a clue of what is coming.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:04 | 3025704 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, as soon as I read his recommendation for CRE he lost all credibility.  These people still think that we're going to come back around and start up this silly game again- we're NOT!  When The Kaboom hits we'll have entered another dimension, one that actually places a BIG emphasis on True fundamentals (Food, Shelter and Water).

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:25 | 3024774 mckee
mckee's picture


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:26 | 3024777 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

this is funny stuff:

  -  8% of people feel they would die after just one day with the supplies they have on hand.

Hell you should at least be able to survive 3 or 4 days on nothing, maybe longer.  drink your own piss if you have to.  start killing zombies and eat them too


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:54 | 3024918 unununium
unununium's picture

Either 8% are idiots or 8% are saying F-U to the survey.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 20:10 | 3025494 Matt
Matt's picture

Or 8% have a medical condition which will result in death within 24 hours without treatment.

Or some combination of the three.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:05 | 3025162 css1971
css1971's picture

I reckon I could survive a month on water alone. Some Americans I've seen.. A year, maybe more.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:14 | 3025193 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture


I've read that a little body fat can take us a long long way, without food, for a long long time, but we have to have water. Hard to drag enough water with us to walk out of whatever hellhole our neighborhood becomes, though, or out of our state, or out of our country. If anyone's near water, stay, and fight for it.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:42 | 3025283 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

A month is pushing it, but you might be able to. Two weeks is "safe" for most, between 2 weeks and 2 months is where death gets just about everyone.

It's not just a question of stored calories, though--even the fattest people will start passing out after a few weeks because protein depletion causes the real problems.  And it doesn't usually take long after you've been unconscious a few times to decide that lying down for awhile isn't such a bad idea.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:10 | 3025714 Seer
Seer's picture

And on top of everything add in environmental stresses.  Pick up a bit of dysentery and things will get pretty miserable: kind of hard to expend energy looking for food and water when you've got it.

"And it doesn't usually take long after you've been unconscious a few times to decide that lying down for awhile isn't such a bad idea."

MOST deaths due to widespread upheavals happen this way.  Folks head out down the road and collapse on that road.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:26 | 3025244 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    you should at least be able to survive 3 or 4 days on nothing

That totally depends on the environment with regards to dehydration.  3-4 days in a cool part of the world, sure, but not in Tucson.

Much of the USA has relatively easy access to water, though.  Most folks just need a purification system.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:26 | 3024781 q99x2
q99x2's picture

My angel spirit shall guide me.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:30 | 3024796 BattlegroundEur...
BattlegroundEurope2011's picture

Don't worry 'cos FEMA has your back.....and your family in a "camp"

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:31 | 3024801 libertus
libertus's picture

The Limits to Growth model was interesting until you ask to see it. Dennis Meadows and Jay Forrester don't share well with others so it was next to impossible to see the assumptions behind the model. Great idea, but lack of transparency really lowers the ligitimacy of any process. Interesting stuff, but Doomer Porn as far as I am concerned. 

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:42 | 3025099 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

When did the Club of Rome??? or whatever it was publish it's 'Limits of Growth' end of the world diatribe? Around 1970, wasn't it?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:14 | 3025722 Seer
Seer's picture

What part of finite planet don't you (two) get?

Show me ANY population that can multiply without end.

It's a mathematical FACT, perpetual growth in a finite realm is impossible.  Those who don't comprehend this need to be on the short bus out of here.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 05:25 | 3026120 RichardP
RichardP's picture

... perpetual growth in a finite realm is impossible.

Seer - infinite growth in a finite world is impossible, but only if nobody dies.  You say, show me any population that can multiply without end.  The answer is any population can multiply without end.  Why?  Because of death.  If deaths equal births, no population growth will occur.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 10:44 | 3026293 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

There were some interesting studies done on animal populations given

unlimited supplies in a controlled enviroment.

Mother nature dealt harshly with them.Finite resources weren't the only constraint

Wish I could remember the name of the study.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 05:05 | 3027663 RichardP
RichardP's picture

Read something on rats recently.  Don't know if it is the one you are thinking of.  A researcher put a defined number of rats into a large outdoor enclosed pen.  Mostly what sticks in my mind about what I read is that, in short order, the rats broke up into social groups of 12-15 rats (if I'm remembering the number correctly).  Whatever the number, it was roughly consistant across all rat groups, and was fairly small.  That stuck in my mind because, in management studies, the optimal span of control is touted as approximately 12-15 subordinates.

Found it:

"... he began a 28-month study of a colony of Norway rats in a 10,000-square-foot (930 m2) outdoor pen. Interestingly, even though five pregnant females over this time-span could theoretically produce 50,000 healthy progeny for this size pen, Calhoun found that the population never exceeded 200 individuals, and stabilized at 150, similar to the Dunbar number. Moreover, the rats were not randomly scattered throughout the pen area, but had organized themselves into twelve or thirteen local colonies of a dozen rats each. He noted that twelve rats is the maximum number that can live harmoniously in a natural group, beyond which stress and psychological effects function as group break-up forces."

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:33 | 3024807 Flakmeister
Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:34 | 3024812 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

RE: Question 10 -- 8% of the people could not survive "less than one day" with current provisions on hand.   What morons. 

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:39 | 3024844 eaglerock
eaglerock's picture

8-10% of the population will not survive when Hostess closes down.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:00 | 3024950 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Drove by a Hostess bakery this morning, noting how strange it was not to smell any bread baking.

A friend who worked there in HR has shown the place twice now, and states there are supposedly 110 interested buyers.

She is only working until the place is sold, and had to take an 8% pay cut to do so. The executives who got the bonuses? No pay cut at all.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:27 | 3025248 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Alcohol withdrawal can be brutal.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:11 | 3025609 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Not to mention lack of one's favorite TV program.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:16 | 3025726 Seer
Seer's picture

Think about the hospital population.  Think about those who depend on machines to keep themselves alive (no, not iCrap users!).  And there's likely going to be MANY who just freak out and die of heart attacks.  That 8% number may not be all that far fetched.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:48 | 3024829 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

At least point to the original article, giving link traffic to a rag like popsci is frowned upon, even in Reddit where this exact topic trended two days ago. (Nudge Nudge). The original Smithsonian article is from April.

Always cite original sources (Graham Turner, 52 pages, lots of nice graphs at the end), esp. where ad revenues and so on are at stake. The graphic you should have used in your article is this one. Note that the report was published in 2008-2009, not "last year".

The Limits of Growth report is well known, and I suspect a very hard sale on ZH, and is known to have some problems in its assumptions (esp. in regards to exponential growth & to what trends it's applied to). However, the Smithsonian tracking is generally correct, with one coda: the paranoid ravings of people fearing "Agenda 21" are a joke, and the solutions that are being tried are done without much funding.

If you read the current UNFPA report on activities, you'll see that spending (p35) is shockingly low from the USA, and overall is just short of $1 billion. Not $1 trillion, a mere billion. I'm sure most here will see just how paltry a figure this is. Private Capital (Bill Gates etc) can actually out-spend them in terms of dollars, and in Africa, does so.


"According to the 2010 Revision, the world population is expected to hit 10.1 billion by 2100, reaching 9.3 billion by the middle of this century. Essentially all of the growth will take place in less developed countries and will be predominately among the poorest populations in urban areas.

Between 2011 and 2100, the population of high-fertility countries, which includes most of sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to triple, passing from 1.2 billion to 4.2 billion. During the same period, the population of intermediate-fertility countries, such as the United States, Mexico and India, will increase by just 26 per cent, while that of low-fertility countries, which includes most of Europe, China and Australia, will decline by about 20 per cent."


The UN's goal for population is 2.1 children / woman, which is basically a stablising figure. There's no plan for everyone to go Japanese; that's entirely an emergent property of their societal choices. You know, that whole working 24/7, both partners working model (or in Japan, the "who the heck knows the weird is strong there" one).


Oh, and if you think the "Limits of Growth" paper is scary: you really need to wake up. The more recent and accurate ones really blow it out of the water.


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:49 | 3024894 harami
harami's picture

All 'limits of growth' are self-imposed.  Rich people are tired of taking care of all the poor, inbred retards littering their planet.

Eugenics baby.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:23 | 3024962 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

When someone posts me a blog with a nice video that doesn't explicitly tell me who they are, and who they're funded by, well, I want to know more.


Domain name: overpopulationisamyth.comRegistrant Contact: Population Research Institute Joel Bockrath () Fax: 1190 Progress Drive Suite 2D Front Royal, VA 22630 US Administrative Contact: Population Research Institute Joel Bockrath ( +1.5406225240 Fax: +1.5406225240 1190 Progress Drive Suite 2D Front Royal, VA 22630 US

Well, the "Population Research Institute" isnt headed by Joel, it's headed by a Steve Mosher.

“They were crying, begging for mercy and praying for their dying children. It’s one thing to think about abortion in the abstract, but when you see a baby at seven-months gestation, it’s a baby — truly one of us,” said Steve Mosher, now the president of the Population Research Institute, recalling that fateful moment.

“It was as if the pit of hell opened up before me. All of the rationalizations were swept away by the brute facts — the humanity of these babies and their killing. I instantly realized that an abortion was the taking of a human life, and I became pro-life.” [source]

According to the Los Angeles Times, Mosher successfully lobbied the George W. Bush administration to withhold $34 to $40 million per year for seven years from the U.N. Population Fund, the largest international donor to family planning programs. The decreased contraceptive services fueled continued global population growth.


He also turns up here as "Well according to a superb and profound piece of investigative journalism by Patrick Courrielche at Big Journalism, he's the eminence grise of the Climategate leak.", although that could be mere coincidence. [On reflection, 90% sure just a mis-step there, although the astroturfing / funding sources lead to the same pots of cream]


A little more digging, and I spot he's hot with the Catholic Church as well, and well connected in Evangelical circles. Ahh, so the circle is complete. I'm hardly convinced: A fundamentalist hard-core Pro-Lifer who lobbies for Bush vrs. Scientists. Where's the evidence Mosher? I'm not seeing him doing any real science. Then it gets scammy: he hasn't actually registered his "population research institute", and the REAL PRI is a Penn State institution. So, he must be running it as a charity.



2010 $1.25 million total funds, director paid $114k. 100% Astroturf, gets 1/5 stars and if I dig a little harder more than likely up to its eyeballs in stuff like The Family.


So, yep, totally legitimate and not a scam compared to a UN department. Baaaaallocks. Top tip: next time you attempt to astroturf a topic, don't do it. Fucking disgraceful: and what's worse is that a) you believe it, b) you think I'd believe it, and c) you'd think that ZH wouldn't instantly sniff the air of decay around your banal propaganda.

Time taken to debunk:18 mins. Where do I send the bill?


[also - the paper I linked in my first post was actually the working draft, not the final release, so is missing some content / graphs. Link cock-up there, oops]

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:27 | 3025043 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

We need more people like you around here....

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:30 | 3025059 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Not sure if an ironic joke, given the downvote that came with it ;)

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:11 | 3025187 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Voting at the Hedge is like voting in an American election; not worth the effort but sometimes fascinating to see the outcome...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:49 | 3025679 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

kickin' it olde skool ZH, just like I remember it.

have a gratuitous upvote to even the score - and yes, they matter not - and voting was added later, at the Great Shift, when the Captcha floodgate was opened. . .

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:30 | 3024971 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I just love it when someone states that any collective has a "goal."

Words on fucking paper, written by individuals who may or may not believe what they write.

Besides, if you get the idea accepted that there should be a goal, it isn't very far to go in order to "move the goalposts."

I agree with your opinion of popsci, though.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:24 | 3025735 Seer
Seer's picture

"The UN's goal for population is 2.1 children / woman, which is basically a stablising figure."

Problem is, is that we've been cranking up life expectancy.  Further, things still run a while after being turned off/down.  The total population count will continue to drift upwards for some time after any stabilizing "replacement" number has been achieved.

Nonetheless, it's a certainty that population numbers will peak.  And, I suspect that the makeup of the world's population will trend toward younger people since it'll be a significantly more physical world.  Things might get really dicey if there's a big plague that hits the younger generation.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:37 | 3024834 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Wow, this shows that at least (and almost certainly far, far more) of the American public are truly complete morons.  NASA uses the movie Armageddon as a training tool.  The highest "score" is identifying something like 170 separate scientific errors.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 20:20 | 3025507 Matt
Matt's picture

The question is not whether you think Bruce Willis will lead a team of oil rig operators to save the world from an Asteroid.

Do you think, in the next 25 years, there is any chance of a large asteroid impact? Now, unless the survey comes with instructions or there is a person on hand to answer your questions, it is up to the person answering the survey to decide what a major asteroid impact is. Are we talking only Global Mass Extinction, or does it count if it hits a major city?

Nearly everyone understands that Hollywood movies are not 100% accurate representations, but the core threat from each movie can be real, on a smaller scale. If movies were completely realistic, they would be documentaries and far fewer people would watch them.

On this standard, The Day After Tomorrow already happened with Sandy. 

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:38 | 3024835 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

60-something % chance of a hurricane.  People are tools.  In 25 years, the odds are close to 100%.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:18 | 3025621 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

That depends on where you live.  Montana seldom gets hurricanes.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:31 | 3025748 Seer
Seer's picture

Years ago I was picking out "safe" places.  One that I had locked on to was well inland.  I was shocked to see that a tidal wave had impacted part of the area in modern times: it was on a big lake, triggered from a massive landslide.  I wasn't planning on being on/next to that lake, in which case it was moot for me, but it drove home the point that no place is entirely safe and that all sorts of disasters are lurking out there.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:41 | 3024857 AON
AON's picture

There is only one thing you need.  One thing only.


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:41 | 3024858 Silverballs
Silverballs's picture

I'm thinking children of men or something very similar

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:36 | 3025754 Seer
Seer's picture

Was surprised that there'd been no mention of this movie up until now.

While this is quite possible we should understand that there will be phases.  I don't believe that any scenario is going to persist.  I also don't believe that any scenario is going to hold true everywhere (and especially at the same time): not 100% that is; whether it's 99% or 9% is totally unknowable.

Prepare for the "transition."  Prepare to come out "the other side" where you'll end back up in a day-to-day (semi) routine.  What future life are you going to need to put energy toward...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:42 | 3024863 TroyPDX
TroyPDX's picture

How long would you survive on what you have in your home... less than a day is at 8%? WTF? You don't need anything at all to last 24 hours except maybe shelter if it's really cold. Have we become that damned soft as a country that nearly 1 in 12 of us don't think they can live a day on their own?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:37 | 3025275 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Obviously there are different ways to interpret that, but it is worth mentioning that there are a lot of old folks around who depend on very complex networks of assistance.  How long would any of the lifers at a "retirement home" last if the employees stopped showing up?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:45 | 3024871 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

LOL at the 7%......but then again how are we defining "Apes"?    ._o

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:54 | 3024919 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

For movies I did not see Fi..., FC,,, - uhh you know that movie that shall neven be spoken that this blog is based upon?



Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:01 | 3024949 kralizec
kralizec's picture

25 years!  Bwuuuhaaahaaa!  Optimistic fools!

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:28 | 3025051 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Serenity ... and fire with both eyes open.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:29 | 3025055 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Worst case scenario...

I got a doghouse and an automatic kit for my ar15.

Bring it on.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:36 | 3025272 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Keep an ax handy anyway. You shouldn't waste ammo defending against zombies when you can cut they heads off with an ax for nothing.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:39 | 3025761 Seer
Seer's picture

Energy ain't free.  Swinging that axe will require spare calories to burn.  Need to do a cost analysis on ammo vs. calories to swing axes.  Oh!  And you're likely going to be moving around a lot more chasing the Zombies around, so add in calories for moving yourself about.

Sometimes I just want to be one of the ignorant.  This stuff makes one's head hurt...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:30 | 3025062 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

2001: A Space Odyssey .....That's how it will end.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:10 | 3025183 woggie
woggie's picture

the beast is on the gobble
and all that matters is we're all headed for it's belly

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:37 | 3025276 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Google bombing is old skool.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:46 | 3025772 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

nice chemtrails

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:19 | 3025217 matsoR
matsoR's picture

There are many people with weird scenario's prepping, as can be seen in the first season of doomsday preppers.

This guy that served in 'nam actually stocked food for 15 years and according to him the value has risen by 400% nice investment there, huh.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:41 | 3025281 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

So he's going to actually sell all that now? Doesn't that you know defeat the purpose just a little? And if he's not planning on selling it then the monetary value is of zero (0) importance and will never be realized. Right?

Now I think about it, it's going to be really hard eating those MREs when you know that each one is worth $200 on the street. I mean seriously, all kinds of fuckers would rather die than think about eating a $200 meal alone in a bunker at the end of the world.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:43 | 3025769 Seer
Seer's picture

And when the MREs run out, then what?  The stores magically re-open?

You're going to have to be a hunter-gatherer or a farmer, take your pick.  Oh, I suppose you could be a marauder, but keep in mind all that ammo that's out there.  Again, folks need to think more than one step...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:24 | 3025235 malek
malek's picture

There are a few things not everyone can do:

Grow my own food, own livestock:   I have no space to attempt that

Plan an Escape Route, Run Escape Practice Drills:   Pretty useless if you live in the middle of a densely populated area, and your greatest threat is a massive earthquake that will likely interrupt almost all roads

Develop my own power source:   No space to put a generator, also would need to store massive amount of fuel for it. But I invested in car chargers for all important items, so as long as I have some fuel in the tank I'm good...

Everything else I have.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:36 | 3025421 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

where the hell you live, a rented attic?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:26 | 3025243 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Unfortunately a very likely "worst case scenario" will also see collapse of all the "invisible infrastructure" we so love, and which makes everyone's life so comfortable.

No power to run the circulating and coolant pumps in all those nuclear reactors (which still produce tens of kW heat even when "shut down")?? No power to maintain safety containment systems in the Chemical Industry? No power to run the pumps and other processes in water management services (particularly wastewater), no formal healthcare (and this includes the invisible hand of disease surveillance)??

Will we be able to bury the dead? Or will we have to abandon the Metropolitan lifestyle completely, leaving the dead to rot, and probably contaminate the water supply? Consider the population bloom probability for the real survivors - rats and mice. Maybe time to read up on the symptoms of Listeria monocytogenes infection too??

Want to "see the future" simply look at what has happened to isolated comminities in the past. It's called disease, and we'll all be reminded that we too are "lunch" for quite a few other life-forms (viral, bacterial and protozoal). With antibiotic resistance very much in the World's headlines these days times could become very interesting very quickly, especially for high-density communities.

Just consider - in this disorganised environment, just ONE uncontrollable power reactor fire will release a suffient nuclide inventory to depopulate tens of thousands of square miles for a very long time. How many decades - old power reactors are there in the US ?? (and since the industry is very much "profit-led", just how many corners are being cut on "uneccesary safety" right now, in order to improve "the Bottom Line"?).

Reliable survival of "You and Yours" is going to need a LOT more than the ZH reliance on "Gold, Guns'n'Ammo" mindset.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:04 | 3025343 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Should, just in America, we lose our ability to replenish our food supplys. Estimates of loss of life exeed 100 million in 30 to 60 days. Those millions are not going to just lay down and die. They will do their best to make sure no one gets out of here alive. A starving mob is a terror to behold. Lets all give thanks to the govt for having the foresight to buy 1.5 billion rounds of 40 cal/JHP to help people along, that they might not have to suffer.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:55 | 3025468 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:54 | 3025780 Seer
Seer's picture

Too much Rambo.

Fact IS, most people DO lay down and die.  One need only look at all those folks who are displaced from wars to see their exoduses.  Up until know there's usually been some place to go to where many people can take refuge in a more peaceful setting.  This won't be the case with the big Kaboom.

Sure, there WILL be an initial shoot-em-up here and there, pilferings and so forth, but this stuff will burn itself out as it takes more and more energy to get essentials.  Cities will go up in flames and wipe out a lot of stuff that could otherwise be consumed (buying people a few more days).  And people will then go where?  Suburbs, where they'll find a ton of... "collectables" and entertainment shit.  The trek continues, the steps slow down...  I wouldn't count on roads staying passable.  In people's haste to evacuate you'll get all sorts of people who fuck up hitching the wagon to the cart- one overturned cart blocking just one lane will pretty much gum up the works.  For those that manage to make it out to the countryside, well, you're going to be covering a lot of distance, and if you don't know where the stashes are you're likely to just exhaust yourself looking.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:57 | 3025478 twh99
twh99's picture

Why are these idiots thinking that since the Mayan calendar is ending the world is ending?  Where in any of the writings, ziggurats, etc of the Mayans is that detailed.  NOWHERE.


The people prophesizing the end of the world based on a calendar ending should have been predicting the end of the world each and every year.  I mean the year always on December 31st doesn't it!  Surely that means the world is ending?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 20:35 | 3025528 Matt
Matt's picture

The Calendar rolls over to; marking the end of the 13th Baktun. This means that according to our understanding of the Mayans' creation story, the world began ~5135 years ago. However, the last "world" supposedly lasted 13 Baktun and was destroyed, so it is suggested that this "world" may end at the end of the 13 Baktun as well.

Since we know that the world is more than 5000 years old, we know that it doesn't literally mean the destruction of the entire planet.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:56 | 3025782 Seer
Seer's picture

"Since we know that the world is more than 5000 years old, we know that it doesn't literally mean the destruction of the entire planet."

With ice ages (the Big Till) it resembles that.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 13:39 | 3026487 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Matt: "Since we know that the world is more than 5000 years old, we know that it doesn't literally mean the destruction of the entire planet."


Comment: A view not expressed often regarding your personal survival. In other words, you die during severe circumstances so to you, the planet is destroyed, to you the world, the universe is gone. Thus we could have massive loss of life, the world goes on, but for thousands, millions, maybe even billions, the destruction of their life is the destruction of everything, including the planet.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 14:30 | 3026539 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Then don't believe it. I'm living my life to the fullest for the next 3 weeks. The mayans were smart dudes. We're probably all gonna die. Only divine intervention and a miracle will save us now.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:36 | 3025655 hairball48
hairball48's picture

I can go a year+ without buying food and basic necessities...and I expect it may come to that for me.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:59 | 3025789 Seer
Seer's picture

Have you tested this out?

Given the uncertainties that exist I'd find it hard to be so certain of your claim (or of anything that sounds so absolute).

Suppose it works out that way, then what?  Have you planned  for the next phase?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 21:51 | 3025683 10mm
10mm's picture

2030 collaspe,that will make me 65"FUCK YOU".

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 13:42 | 3026491 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Given the state of the USA or even the world, it might be the government saying, "So you are 65. FU. Keep on working and pay your taxes."

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 23:32 | 3025847 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Taking a step back:

Why now are they conducting such a survey?

According to the US' finest 535 and their headline data, everything is rainbows, unicorns, and skittles.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 10:50 | 3026296 mendolover
mendolover's picture

As long as this alligator who's back we're living on doesn't move around too much, who gives a shit?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!