If Past Is Prologue: T Minus 5 Months Until The Next Recession

Tyler Durden's picture

Just under two months ago we noted, somewhat comedically, that the Fed's researchers were 'confused' that its models (the wonderful DSGE) pointed to 'explosive inflation' given its current ZIRP regime. Perhaps those same PhDs will also be surprised to note that, based on the 44 month average length 'out of recession', that the next recession (as proffered by the NBER) is due to begin March 2013 (though of course, the resolution of the fiscal cliff and a renaissance in Europe will hold off the next recession forever, right?)...


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aymankkhlifat's picture

Boehner speaks now : What is the Fiscal Cliff ? http://stks.co/cF8x 

economics9698's picture

We entered into the recession last July.  The only thing hiding it is the fiat inflation.

john39's picture

apart from a series of fraud induced bubbles... the U.S. has probably been in recession for decades.

insanelysane's picture

Only from the 1970's on.

Sextus Empiricus's picture

Why last July?  Interested to know your rationale for that.

Seriously.  Just curious.  I'm curious about everything.

Essential Nexus's picture

Where did you come up with your name?  I'm just curious about that.

Sextus Empiricus's picture

Sextus Empiricus was a philosophical skeptic from the Pyrrhonian school of thought... late BCE

Questioned the ability to rationally prove anything, since every proof required a proof of the previous proof.  And so on.

economics9698's picture

Industrial production actually peaked a few months ago, real sales have weakened, personal income has weakened, and despite some divergences among individual reports here and there, the new order, order backlog, and employment components of numerous regional and national Fed and Purchasing Managers surveys have also turned decidedly lower.





janchup's picture

Depending on the fund, if you wanted to lose money or merely have lousy returns for the past 3 years Hussman is the guy you should have turned to.

VirtuousTex's picture

There is a good video on Bloomberg with Lakshman Achuthan from ECRI which shows and explains all the big indicators rolling over in July apart from employment.  Lakshman has stated publicly that he thinks a new recession started in July.  A negative GDP print should follow if he's correct.  I think indicators are aggregate: production, sales, income, and emplyoment.

BandGap's picture

We went off the cliff months ago, we just have to watch the gravitation vector take over. As our momentum slows, just how far past the cliff's edge will be evident.

My brother oown a restaurant, inflation started hitting food hard last spring.....and now we'll start to see the bad yields in China show up, forget mentioning the US.

cifo's picture

Now to beginning of March is 3 months, not 5.

Silver Bug's picture

We have never really truly left the new depression. They simply were able to make the stock market go up short term by inflating with fiat money. It's a depression if you lost your job and a recession if your neighbour lost his.



Debtonation's picture

You mean Depression?

CPL's picture

Double plus ungood comrade, you should be with the proper lingo patter or you will find yourself re-educated.

A Nanny Moose's picture

Requesting permission to be afraid

Sextus Empiricus's picture

You mean sh*t-storm clusterf*ck?

FL_Conservative's picture

What's a little stagflation amongst friends?

FLUSA.com's picture

Oooh nice..an Ordinary Recession to look forward to!

docj's picture

Cool! My next salary review is at the end of February - so if this holds I might see a (nominal) increas in my (non-inflation adjusted) salary next year! WOO HOO!

azzhatter's picture

Repeat after me -There is no inflation


Cheers, Uncle Benny

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

recession started in August imho

CPL's picture

August 2002?


Yes I agree.

TruthBeforeAll's picture

Can you spot when the recession began on this chart? http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/us-natural-gas-price-i... Hint... it wasn't Sept 11th 2001. It was when people's gas bills doubled and tripled in the winter of 2000 and they had no clue how they were going to heat their homes if they got another bill like the last one. It was at exactly that point that consumer confidence crumbled. Add Sept 11th to the mix and people lost faith in TPTB to protect their general welfare.

Eally Ucked's picture

Recession started few years back but if you like fudged numbers mostly consisting of gov. spending and fake profits from financial side then maybe you're right.

ptoemmes's picture




Following our September 2011 recession call, we clarified its likely timing in December 2011. Based on the historical lead times of ECRI’s leading indexes, we concluded that, if it didn’t start in the first quarter of 2012, it was very likely to begin by mid-year.

But we also made it clear at the time that you wouldn’t know whether or not we were wrong until the end of 2012. And so it’s interesting to note the rush to judgment by a number of analysts, already asserting that we were wrong.

So, with about a month to go before year-end, what do the hard data tell us about where we are in the business cycle? Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. This is because, in retrospect, three of those four coincident indicators – the broad measures of production, income, employment and sales – saw their high points in July (vertical red line in chart), with only employment still rising.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/ecri-sticks-with-rece...

RopeADope's picture

I see you are a comedian. The U.S. has been in a recession for the past 12 years straight.

chart_gazer's picture

only the the middle and lower class 


"...we know from Fed and IRS data that the past decade has seen a modest gains in the top 30% of all earners, bigger gains in the top 10%, very significant increases in the top 1.0%, and enormous gains in the top 0.1%".

and for corporations, do you call this a recession?


wake up america.

RopeADope's picture

That is just hyperinflation hiding in the bank accounts of the top 1%.

MachoMan's picture

Actually, once set in motion, it's the punitive nature of the cantillon effect...  and all of the money never sits there forever...  it's trickling out as a few of the colluders break the pact in secrecy.

chart_gazer's picture

and corporations.  what is the bullshit that obama was going to be hard on corporations?


_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

I didn't woke up until 2008 but I did always have a feeling that we never really recovered from the 2001 recession. Go figure.

The Gooch's picture


RopeADope's picture

What do you call the performance difference between compounded obfuscations and compounded problem solving?

docmac324's picture

I'm calling it the week of 2/11/13.


A Nanny Moose's picture

Stupid Bowl weekend would be far more opportune timing.

Dr. Engali's picture

That's an excellent point you made there!

Poetic injustice's picture

With recent inflation, every point now should look like ...

I am Jobe's picture

Screw the term limits. Hanging Time is next.

azzhatter's picture

Never ending recession has already begun. 30 years of credit expansion with destruction of productive capability will do that to ya.

Dr. Engali's picture

Again we never left the depression that started in 2000.We had a dead cat bounce as we work or way downward ,but the collapse has continued it's downward trend again.

El Tuco's picture

Yes we are on course although I think it will be accelerated.



I tell folks if you want to invest in the future make sure you and your kids know how to plant a garden, butcher an animal, shoot a gun or crossbow.

The good times aren't here forever.

Iam Yue2's picture

Friday 15th March, Cheltenham Gold Cup Dày in the UK. History shows a strong correlation between traders attending race meetings and seismic ground breaking events.

Bastiat009's picture

Very very few of the predictions on this site have come true, especially when timed. I will not believe this one even though I believe the economic situation in the US and in Europe and in Japan is dreadful.

Sextus Empiricus's picture

Spend a year or so at the university and you'll find that the Ph.Ds and those receiving them learn a very narrow interpretation of their craft, continue in that direcition, and then get a job out of school.  From that point on, many of them cease to learn anything and, like most people, just talk about what they already know for the rest of their lives.

They think themselves to be very intelligent, but too often they only know one side of the coin they claim to own.  Sometimes I find it UNBELIEVABLE that economists can be so dim-witted (I didn't even do economics in school, I just decided to do everything).  But then again, they make it up the rungs of the ladder by doing what they are told and being good at what they already know.  Too many know and are taught the wrong things.  It's just that once you're making a fat paycheck, why learn anything new? 

Just keep the system you know going as long as possible because if it collapses, you have no other skill.

Vashta Nerada's picture

No, the recession will be declared next March, only because they are called retrospectively.  As was noted above, we entered in July.

NoDebt's picture

Recession and Inflation need to be renamed, is all.  Too old fashioned.

Recession will now be called "Unique Opportunities".

Inflation will now be called "Bigger is Better".

And monetizing debt will now be called "Increasing Liquidity".  (Oh, wait.... that one alread is)

It's all about messaging, people.  Messaging, I tell you!