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The Most Ridiculous Close To An Unimpressive Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With a late-day surge into the green for the S&P 500 futures on (as usual) absolutely no news at all (attributed to MSCI rebalancing) - that crossed the entire day's range in the space of 40 minutes, the Dow managed to just hold 13,000 and close green for the week. There was very significant volume and block size into the ramp as it pulled away from risk-assets as only a month-end move can magically achieve. In the same way as last Friday's close was just remarkably silly, today followed the same path - though we note that rates and credit were outperforming stocks most of the day and provided the target for the late-day surge. Once that target was closed, S&P 500 futures then melted-down around the close and after-hours. Utilities were the big winners on the week (+3.5%) as Financials and Energy lost around 0.7%. Silver crumbled to recouple with Gold (down around 2% on the week) while Copper gained 3%. Treasury yields steepened into the close with the 30Y pushing higher but ending -2bps (while the 10Y was -7bps). What a crazy stop-hunting, algo-driven, VWAP-reverting end to a week of political volatility.

 

It seems our tweet came true - but failed in the end...

The S&P 500 futures up close and personal - just crazy at the close...bouncing off VWAP and unchanged... on huge volume... (h/t @eminiwatch)

 

Equity indices ended the week in the green - though barely for the Dow and S&P...

 

and for the month - the Dow closes red and the S&P just green...Maybe more interesting is the fact that from the close before the election result (11/6) the NASDAQ is unchanged, SPX -0.9%, and Dow and Transports -1.7%

 

with Utilities the week's big winners (and Fins and Energy losers)...

 

And among the financials - only Morgan Stanley managed gains...

 

All-in-all - broad risk assets were not impressed and certainly did not play along into the close but the ETFs across the capital structure provided some support (as HYG was levered up - still considerably rich to its intrinsics)...

 

as is clear below, stocks overshot to the downside on Tuesday/Wednesday relative to crediot but this week's inflows have once again supported the HYG high-yield bond ETF (even as its intrinsics remain flat (lower pane shows the richness of the ETF to its underlying portfolio). The green oval upper right shows the crazy swing higher in stocks at the close today which appeared to be a catch up to HYG - once hit, heavy volume hit HYG and SPY also tanked back down...

 

VIX jumped to 15.87% at the, down on the month but up for the week...

 

Commodities were widely mixed but precious metals recoupled at the end...

 

and Treasuries saw curve steepening to close the week though the entire curve dropped on the week (and 2s10s30s signaled considerably more risk-off than cliff-off)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:27 | 3025044 Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

Assholes.  F'em.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:33 | 3025073 Daily Bail
Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:46 | 3025115 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

owebama is surrounded by tax cheats, hypocrites, and fraudsters

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:59 | 3025151 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That was sweet! I love the Daily Bails slogan...   We watch CNBC so you don't have to...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:34 | 3025264 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

watch it on mute and just make up what they're saying - it's even better that way

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 01:48 | 3025601 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Wake me when trillions of Bernanke bullshit bucks bring it back to where it was over 5 f'ing years ago.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:32 | 3025056 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Houston...we have a problem.  This close was one of the most blatant joke closes I have seen in the last four years.  The troubling thing is...that even a lot of decent sized fund managers are chirping about it tonight.  We may have just hit peak on The Liftatron.  At minimum, this one is going to be very difficult for the fun cops to ignore.  That is...the fun cops who are not porning out every day.

Good grief...and by that I mean "Nice fundamental rally today!"

And as always...thank Obewan Bernanke...for this wasteland you have made for us.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:45 | 3025096 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Check it...SHW was 356,000 to buy MOC tonight...or approximately $56 million coming in at a low end of $153.50.  Check that close...and what happened just after in the AH.  Nice dark pool.

This isn't a market anymore...and it's profoundly sad to see this.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:32 | 3025261 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

There was index re-balancing at the close. Might explain it

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 14:32 | 3026542 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I read that 70% of all trades are now between computer algorythyms. It's scary but highly manipulateable if you are the government.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:31 | 3025064 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    a week of political volatility.

Say huh?  No one's done shit.  That's pretty typical, really.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:42 | 3025065 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

The Fed+Crimex manipulating the stock market and destroying small traders. What else is new? Under the corrupt Obama administration crime does pay, while regulators sit on their hands watching porn and waiting for the chance to get well paid Crimex job.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:37 | 3025273 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

i don't think they're sitting on their hands watching porn...yaknow what i'm sayin'???  i honestly think the best job in the world would be to have employment as a regulator - constantly doing research / investigations and not finding anything wrong - everyone is so full of integrity there's no graft, corruption or law breaking going on...absofuckinglutely shameful

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:33 | 3025070 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I'm sure this will make the casual observer want to get right back in.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:33 | 3025077 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

Reverse Darwinism at work.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:34 | 3025078 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

When you look at the 5m chart, you see that they pushed it in the last 10m ; and on the last bar of the week, they sold the shit out of the market..... 7.2mm shares on the SPY ; it was already too late for retail to do anything... perfect time for the hedgies to hit the sell button.  After some heavy buying into the close... they still couldn't hold the close above yesterdays at 4pm

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:36 | 3025082 magpie
magpie's picture

What downgrades will the weekend delight us with

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:41 | 3025097 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

ESM cut to Aa1 - Moodys

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:43 | 3025101 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Wonder what China will say when the US is going to a goldstandard. 2 trillion in gold backed dollar debt.

Ka-ching?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:45 | 3025104 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Facebook and Zynga to end close relationship

"Facebook and Zynga have amended an agreement that gave the games developer strong access to the social network's one billion users."

"Zynga's share price fell by 13% in after-hours trading following the news."

"Recent figures suggest 80% of Zynga's revenue comes from Facebook users.

In an email to staff in October 2012, Zynga founder Mark Pincus said the company would close its Boston studio and consider closing studios in the UK and Japan as part of an "overall cost reduction plan"."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20554441#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_sour...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:52 | 3025132 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm still of the opinion that all of those click, click, clicks in Farmville generated fake ad revenue for Fakebook.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-08-01/facebook%E2%80%99s-ad-mo...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:42 | 3025286 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

it's not necessarily the click, click, clicks, look up the term 'refresh impression', the display advertising sector is so full of fraud it's disgusting - did you know that when you pay for advertising on a network and a page loads, even if the ad is below the fold that is counted as an 'impression'.  

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:47 | 3025296 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Advertising has always been a scam, though.  Honestly, it's amazing they've adapted as well as they did to the whole Internet thing.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:50 | 3025302 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

it's not necessarily the click, click, clicks, it's the counting of 'refresh impressions' - essentially when suzy home-maker is playing farmville and engrossed in what a delightful gaming experience she is having, all along, banner ads are automatically refreshing every 15 or so seconds charging advertisers for impressions - these things start to add up and at a high enough CPM, cha-ching.  funny thing is that suzy home-maker doesn't really see any of the ads because her attention is elsewhere.  the display advertising sector is so full of fraud it's disgusting - did you know that when you pay for advertising on a network and a page loads, even if the ad is below the fold that is counted as an 'impression'.  

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 13:45 | 3026498 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Yeah, but advertising has always been a scam.  Once the innerwebz came along, people started demanding PROOF that an ad was being "seen."  No one expected that kind of demand when they were putting teevee ads on the air, or painting billboards by the side of the road. 

It's always been about selling an unknown quantity--the advertiser made his living by overcharging for something he never promised to deliver.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:43 | 3025105 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

leave it to the CME to keep thigns running smoothly..

nothing changed from this 1960's video on Futures trading 101 -Vintage - Futures Trading 101 | Video |http://hedge.ly/ShMHqo

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:45 | 3025114 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

US stock markets = FUBAR

Thanks to ZH for profiling what a joke the markets have become.  It seems as long as the markets are manipulated upward, the "regulators" and their whoremasters don't care...

FUBAR

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:55 | 3025138 arkm
arkm's picture

I thought the ramp in the close was about Rehn's words

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:37 | 3025274 RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

No, my dog tweeted he was adding his Kibbles 'n Bits allowance to the ESM.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:15 | 3025175 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

We all know the bond market will be final KABOOM, but this is really torture. Sometimes I feel like we are the only ones scratching our heads and completely dumbfounded by what we are seeing. But I always tune into guys like M. Faber and J. Rodgers for consolation and moral support. Its good to see these guys saying and feeling exactly how we are. Otherwise I think I would need to be put in the nuthouse.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:18 | 3025214 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Not to worry.  I post comments from the nuthouse all the time. 

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:36 | 3025271 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

See you there!

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:19 | 3025209 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

F#ck it! Time for some liquid refreshment to dull my senses.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 18:36 | 3025254 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Wow. Totally NOT unexpected. Like I posted before, not much happening either way. Don't be surprised by an attempted ramp up in equities for a day or so, but this is a great opportunity to establish short positions or increase them. But make sure you don't over expose yourself for such a short squeeze as I just mentioned. Things going almost exactly as suggested weeks ago.

 

Once  again, I note that I totally blew a call for a market melt down this year. I don't hide from my mistakes or bad calls. But since I put on my short positions at these lofty prices, called the rally back up, I've done really well. If I were to surmise at this point, I see the same action over the next week or so followed by a Santa Claus rally which again will provide another great opportunity for short positions above 13k on the Dow.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:05 | 3025345 ekm
ekm's picture

As I've alwasy said, this casino is 'news proof'.

News have no effect, none whatsoever on the the market, zero, zilch, nada.

 

The reality is that the Primary Dealers have become the greater fool and have only one option left:

Push the buy button with Fed's money until the casino runs out of chips (stocks).

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 00:49 | 3025446 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Throw all those "maternal disappointments" in one of your industrial "Air Conditioning" units!

  That was a complement EKM ;-}

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 19:53 | 3025464 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

So what to change as the only guy right...and right all the time I might add...in a site that is not only wrong...but wrong AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN. Hmmmm. Heres's one: "time to like Facebook?" Scary, isn't it Mr. Bear guy? "That kid's a billionaire and the best we can all do here is extol the virtues a shiny, non-interest bearing (dare i say it?!!!) DEPRECIATING asset?" I know, I know..."he's Mr to along to get along and everyone thinks he's weird"...but go ahead...EVEN TRY and play my game BITCHEZ. .... Don't even know where to start do ya? Didn't think so. My only regret is not acting LONGER than I actually do. Not let us ponder the TRUE definition of insanity shall...no, it's not mouthing off while aspiring to be nothin more than poor as shit. NOPE! It's actually BELIEVING that a gold standard really IS possible here...what with trillion dollar deficits, mega entitlements on the way, a brand spanking new war on Syria and who knows what else via a via "the bailout brigade." THAT my friends is the TRUE definition of insanity. "And methinks I'm starting to warm up to the idea" actually....

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 20:42 | 3025551 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

"but go ahead...EVEN TRY and play my game BITCHEZ."

OK, but I think I need about 37 beers or so help make sense of your post.  Just sayin.

"Don't even know where to start do ya?"

Given the lack of clarity of whatever it is that you are trying to purport, I would agree that it is indeed difficult to know where or even what to start.

 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 01:40 | 3025987 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

His HFT bot escaped into his browser.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 22:04 | 3025703 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The SP500 weekly still shows downside.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-marginally/

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 05:30 | 3026123 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

Wanted to read your link but there is a subscription popup blocking it.  Oh well, I tried.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 00:31 | 3025911 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

UM, UM...Excuse Me, Excuse Me...Good commentary, MY MAIN MAN!

 

I LUV YOU MAN:) 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 05:28 | 3026121 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

I took this to be short covering at the close.   However I am open to other explanations.  My short portfolio was doing great until that close.  Will stay short into next week.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 14:07 | 3026521 ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

if last week held at the 50 to short load and ramp to throw off shorts and give weekender something to chase/you could have a trade

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 06:52 | 3026139 dcb
dcb's picture

I wish they still published the prop desk data, because yeah, things are really fishy again. zh exposed the manipulation yours ago with the data, and now it's non public!!

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 08:04 | 3026172 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

John Hussman weighs in: "Our estimates of prospective stock market return/risk, on a blended horizon from 2-weeks to 18-months, remains among the most negative that we’ve observed in a century of market data."

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121126.htm

 

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