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Ugly Chicago PMI Best Captured By Respondent: "The Economy Really Seems To Be Hanging On A Thread"

Tyler Durden's picture


Just like yesterday's atrocious second Q3 GDP revision needed at least 1 minutes of work (so about 60 seconds more than most algos are willing to put into it) before the true gist of the economic data ugliness could be truly captured, so the true story in today's Chicago PMI - usually a critical advance indicator to the Manufacturing ISM (except lately of course: under central planning any historical correlations make no sense) - only appeared into view following a more than cursory glance.

Sure enough, while the headline number printed above 50 for the first time since August, 50.4 to be specific, missing expectations of a 50.5 increase, yet up from 49.9, the bulk of this was driven by the most illogical driver: i.e. Prices Paid, which directly correlates with collapsing profit margins, printing at a 16 month high - inverse deflation is everywhere these days it seems, while the all critical New Orders plunging to the lowest since June 2009 or 45.3 from 50.6, and finally inventories declining from 49.6 to 47.1: which makes sense after as disclosed yesterday it was inventory accumulation in Q3 that accounted for 36% of US economic "growth." What good news there was was in Production, Backlogs and Employment: the same Employment we have been told to ignore in all other data series due to the impact of Sandy.

But perhaps the best summary of the economy are the following bolded statements from the Chicago PMI respondents:

  • The economy really seems to be hanging on a thread. I do not think that upward price movements can be sustained at a time when real growth is questionable.
  • Business sales been slowing throughout the year, and continue to slow, but now at an increasing rate, becoming very alarming.
  • We are officially swamped and doing everything we can to get our machines out this year....some will bleed into 2013, but we will make up a large portion of our yearly revenue in Q4.
  • The fiscal cliff looms over us as our biggest customers are defense contractors. Can't see how increasing taxes on job creators will solve this problem, only growth will.
  • Hospital inpatient census rates are reducing - cost reduction initiatives are manadatory.
  • Several large orders continue to 'pend' but several smaller orders have kept our backlog up. Next year still looks very promising.

Finally those who enjoy predicting overall economic strength based on the New Orders less Inventories indicator, we have some bad news:



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Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:11 | 3023576 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"The Economy Really Seems To Be Hanging On A Thread"

A spider web of corruption, decits, lies and private/public denial.

<Precisely because of this maybe our future holds a crumble rather than a collapse.>

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:23 | 3023619 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

"Several large orders continue to 'pend' but several smaller orders have kept our backlog up. Next year still looks very promising."


Who is responsible for this liar?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:34 | 3023659 CH1
CH1's picture


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:39 | 3023671 Looney
Looney's picture

The Fiscal Cliff circus is just a distraction, a masterfully crafted Goebbels-like propaganda, so when the Poop hits the Propeller both sides can blame each other. If Romney were elected, we would've seen exactly the same show.

The STRING the whole thing is hanging on is rotten and can't hold this shit any longer. Even if they, by mistake, suddenly "solve" the Cliff, they would need to make-up something else very quickly, so they can blame the collapse on it.


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 13:38 | 3024118 SeanJKerrigan
SeanJKerrigan's picture

Interesting theory.  I do think that most of DC is still delusional and doesn't understand the possibility of collapse. At the same time however, there are some higher thinking oligarchs who are looking ahead.

I'm not sure however that blaming each other is the best solution from a tactical point of view. The whole point of the two party system is to divert public anger back into the system and to prevent "solutions" outside of their control from being presented.

Splitting the population's anger between Ds and Rs might serve the individual politicians in the short term, but it forces people to begin to embrace more extreme solutions and this could destabilize the power structure as it exists. (Read this analysis on Nazi Germany to see what I mean.)

As of this time, they are pretty confident in their level of control however, so what you say is possible.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 14:54 | 3024398 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Cut the thread already and lets get it on.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 14:34 | 3024327 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Remember, the C in CPMR stands for Chicago.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:24 | 3023622 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Goldman called, they want their thread back.  With interest.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:44 | 3023691 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

and the dow is............up a tick in green! 



Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:24 | 3023844 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



"The Economy Really Seems To Be Hanging On [government borrowing]."

There, fixed that for you.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:11 | 3023580 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

someday the truth will matter..but not

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:28 | 3023644 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Dow up 25 pts.

The fact that it hangs on to a thread is bullish!

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:12 | 3023582's picture

Who can make such a strong thread????

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:12 | 3023585 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:13 | 3023587 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Time to bring this fucker down.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:15 | 3023590 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

job creators, that's a laugher! in china maybe, here nothing but layoffs and executive bonuses. they should be executed for treason.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:55 | 3023989 chet
chet's picture

I do love it when people in the government contracting biz talk like they're John Galt.  No more taxation!  But grow the defense budget!

I heard a guy on the radio like this.  He and his wife were longtime armed forces employees, recieved their training and education and so on from the military.  Now they're both in the DC area selling their expertise back to Uncle Sam as contractors, making well over $250k (he says).  But the guy is talking like he's some sort of master capitalist complaining about taxation.  You mean taxation to pay for the government which has supported every aspect of your professional life and now pays your fabulous "private sector" salary?  I just can't take those types seriously.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:15 | 3023595 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They better hurry up with that war.... reality might start to set in with the sheeple that we are fucked.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:30 | 3023650 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Which war? I've lost count...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:17 | 3023601's picture

My TV is really about to crap out...should I buy a new one now or wait till January?  Oh what did you say?  This isn't Clark Howard's site...shit balls

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:24 | 3023624 Monedas
Monedas's picture

My last CRT TV has been making crackling sounds when I turn it on for a couple of months .... then poof it went dead .... is that the picture tube, a gum wrapper fuse or the power supply .... or just break it open and sell the copper coil around the CRT electron gun ?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 16:54 | 3024916 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Just make it's plugged in and start poking a screwdriver around through the air-holes in the back.  That'll often fix that sort of thing.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:25 | 3023633 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

When it comes to electronics, free is a good value.  Whatever you can get for free or next to nothing should be better than good enough.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:36 | 3023665 CH1
CH1's picture

Whatever you can get for free or next to nothing should be better than good enough.

Funny how often that's true these days.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:17 | 3023603 squib
squib's picture

I know we are only '4 years in'...but I'm getting economy/financials/BS fatigue.


I still love unicorns though.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:44 | 3023692 nantucket
nantucket's picture

oh yo yo yo....oh oh oh....ooooh oooh ooooh ya ya ya ya yaaaaah

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:19 | 3023606 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

Quik - some one roll out a central banker or a politician to fluff the markets...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:19 | 3023607 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

The thread is tied to a stick that's propping up a box of whoop-ass. 

An analog that predicted 1421 in April, 1288 in June, and 1472 in Sept is signalling 1290 in January.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:26 | 3023639 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

That analog and I must be siblings, 'cause that's where I see the S&P within the next month.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:23 | 3023834 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

Damn.  I shoulda called you instead of doing all that charting!  Here's hoping we're both right.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:19 | 3023609 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Did you hear about the currency trader who was crucified on a cross of yen ?  

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:20 | 3023611 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

Yes, yes....bow to the masters or all hope is lost!</sarc>

"The fiscal cliff looms over us as our biggest customers are defense contractors. Can't see how increasing taxes on job creators will solve this problem, only growth will."


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:23 | 3023621 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

Bullish.Sorry,Tyler.You must wait for another "bearish" data to be short on and get stopped out (again,and again).

Up,up,up.Yesss.Blame it on algos this time.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:25 | 3023628 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

The market is going to TANK!!!

Wait...update...shit it's up again.  That's odd.  I thought they would give up today.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:32 | 3023652 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

When they finally do a deal on the fiscal cliff then it will tank. At that point the market will realise that higher taxes and spending curbs are not bullish for stocks. Oh and because the shorts will no longer be worried about some dumb politician giving the algos the horn, which then smash the Dow 200 points higher in minutes.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:33 | 3023658 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I wrote that one down!

Thanks.  I'm gonna be RICH!!!

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:51 | 3023682 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Lol. I wouldn't bet on it. Everybody loses on the markets now apart from the machines! Those things hoover up people's cash faster than an online casino.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:40 | 3023679 CH1
CH1's picture

The market is going to...

Once again, THERE IS NO MARKET. All is manipulation, all is theater. In the audience sit all the 401K sheep.

Use your fiat to buy real, unregistered, valuable things.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:27 | 3023641 Madcow
Madcow's picture

Can't Geithner just call up Zuckerburg and figure out how to issue "Sudden Stop Prevention" bonds by monetizing social commerce in the clouds - ?? 

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:28 | 3023645 The Axe
The Axe's picture


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:28 | 3023647 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Dow up, of course.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:30 | 3023651 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And what perked this up from the last bottom?  And what is about to happen again?

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:31 | 3023654 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

the dawn of the planet of the apes, we have nothing but button pushing monkeys telling us that everything is great while slinging shit at the american people! problem is that not only are they shitting on thier nose, the sheep are leaving their mouth open.  

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:33 | 3023656 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



The economy is hanging on a noose. 

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:40 | 3023672 Monedas
Monedas's picture

This whole inverse pyramid of lies, that is our economy, can be traced back to the mother of all lies .... "I did not have SEX with THAT woman !"

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:42 | 3023685 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Wrong.  Our economic condition goes back to the real mother of all lies:  "Sadam Hussien has WMDs"

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:52 | 3023722 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

wrong, you have to go back a little more than that to a big nose fellow and a tape player.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:35 | 3023913 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

Gotta catapult the propoganda...

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:38 | 3023926 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Wrong again, it was, "I am not a crook" ~ Nixxon

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:44 | 3023686 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The real Santa Claus could come down and cancel Christmas and it still wouldn't fucking matter. The markets would rally hard that day and everyday until the middle of Jan. It's just that time of year when the dumbest of the dumb money is the biggest player.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:00 | 3023754 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

santa makes his own toys and just gives them away. that does zero for bogus gdp #s so in effect you are correct.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:44 | 3023693 venturen
venturen's picture

Next leg is based on the FED making direct purchases from retail stores and throwing the stuff in the ocean!

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:32 | 3023894 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

One of the great stories in LA corruption history involved GM, Firestone, Standard Oil et al doing just that with very popular and efficient trolley cars back in the 40s. They bought em and dumped them in the Santa Monica Bay.  Reportedly happened in NY, Baltimore, Newark, San Diego, too. 

Of course, back then they knew how to handle such criminal behavior:

"The court imposed a sanction of $5,000 on GM. In addition, the jury convicted H.C. Grossman, who was then treasurer of GM. Grossman had played a key role in the motorization campaigns and had served as a director of Pacific City Lines when that company undertook the dismantlement of the $100 million Pacific Electric system. The court fined Grossman the magnanimous sum of $1."


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 15:57 | 3024660 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

You are the first person since I was little who has ever mentioned the destruction of the "rapid" transit in LA.

I remember crossing Venice Blvd with it's divided hwy. There was two tracks down the middle of the street traveling from the beach to downtown. I never saw a trolly but I do remember the easement quickly being paved over with asphalt.

And this is what was removed.



Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:48 | 3023708 jldpc
jldpc's picture

Oh rare joy - Now here is the really good news - Shumer (D:NY) needs an immediate $86B to repair NY & NJ - and he has to go the House to get the money approved - from guess who? Think 2013 budget hole; and it was not even mentioned by the Obama team yesterday in their wish list - mostly ignored by the markets so far. Buttttttttttttttttttttttt...................... it will take priority........................and now you know why the FED commentators yesterday and today are talking up the FED buying up MORE, lot's more Gov debt next year. And we all know what that means!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Higher stock prices at some point ----- so do not give up all hope for the market (the country yes; hell the Chinese will loan it to us won't they? or maybe the Europeans now that the Euro is going up again. I love heavy drugs in the morning - makes it all so reasonable and predictable. Hell if we legalize weed and tax the shit out it - the deficit will disappear in a matter of months - no drug war expense, much higher tax receipts, and tens of thousands criminal murdering mexicans will need to find real work. Pass the Jack - it's a good day and looking forward to XMAS after all.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:50 | 3023713 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Nothing a little printing won't solve.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 11:51 | 3023718 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Cheer up!

Christmas Bonus Season approaches.

With QEternity, this could be the best bonus season ever.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:01 | 3023757 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

without a doubt

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:09 | 3023775 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Michele's WH Christmas tree is a war memorial .... complete with a brigadier general's star on top .... no connection to Jesus of Nazareth can be discerned !

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:48 | 3023781 homonohumanus
homonohumanus's picture

I think the thread is a resistance to further thalassocratic measures/actions from the masses, or the beginning of an opposition on the matter.

Thalassocracy supports no exception, hence yesterday note from Obama, some people or groups might be plotting a flase flag operation to allow NATO to resume its business "as usual".


Either way, worse for us morality aside, they start to acknowledge that in fornt of Russian and China and the raising convergence of interests within the BRICS they can't push that much further without having to deal with risks and consequences they are not sure they can control.


Edit for the non US residents, here is an advertisement for the Navy that barely shy aways from what it is all about: thalassocracy.


Edit 2 for the ignorants:



The term thalassocracy (from Greek language ??????? (thalassa), meaning "sea", and ??????? (kratein), meaning "to rule", giving ????????????? (thalassokratia), "rule of the sea") refers to a state with primarily maritime realms—an empire at sea, such as Athens or the Phoenician network of merchant cities. Traditional thalassocracies seldom dominate interiors, even in their home territories (for example: Tyre, Sidon, or Carthage). It is necessary to distinguish this traditional sense of thalassocracy from an "empire", where the state's territories, though possibly linked principally or solely by the sea lanes, generally extend into mainland interiors.

The term can also simply refer to naval supremacy, in either military or commercial senses of the word "supremacy". Indeed, the word thalassocracy itself was first used by the Greeks to describe the government of the Minoan civilization, whose power depended on its navy. Herodotus also spoke of the need to counter the Phoenician thalassocracy by developing a Greek "empire of the sea".[/quote]


Fri, 11/30/2012 - 12:16 | 3023807 Monedas
Monedas's picture

It's all coming down when the PIGS hit the BRICS wall !    

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 17:51 | 3025130 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Yes. Or when the bond market decides to come down from its all time highs to finally park its fat ass on the final bubble. No matter which comes first. Each will be the catalyst for the latter.

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 13:03 | 3024009 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

It's called recession

Fri, 11/30/2012 - 14:14 | 3024244 DeadFinks
DeadFinks's picture

The only way to keep making look like it's not recession is to continue massive government spending.  Remember, it's not how you feel, it's how you look.

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