The Chart That Keeps Ben Bernanke Up At Night

Tyler Durden's picture


What changed in the last 30 days? Did the world just wake up to the idea that the only way out of this quagmire is a twisted currency war that appears to have re-ignited thanks to Abe's efforts? Something appears to have snapped in the American psyche as the last 30 days have seen the largest physical gold sales on record. Between the search volume for 'bulk ammo' and this, we fear something is afoot and while Congress fiddles as our economy burns, Bernanke going 'back to work' is perhaps what the physical 'horders' are thinking... or maybe they understand, as we noted here, that just as Kyle Bass has confirmed previously, Paper Gold is just like allocated, unambiguously owned physical bullion... until it’s not.


(Source: US Mint)

(h/t Alex Gloy of Lighthouse Investment Management)

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Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:54 | 3027274 smiler03
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Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:59 | 3027309 Schmuck Raker
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I wouldn't call it cherry-picked data.Looking closer, I consider it a significant increase.

Aside from May of 2010, it's the largest MoM increase going all the back to 2005, and before that 1998.

WITH THE CAVEAT: Ignoring increases from months with sales of less than 20,000 ounces.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:16 | 3027334 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

THEN: Adjust for Price, and...well, I  red-arrowed JBallz in the end.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 03:24 | 3027629 e-recep
e-recep's picture

roll back ten years and you'll see the difference. if you can't, you need to see an ophtalmologist.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:41 | 3027061 jballz
jballz's picture

Oh for fuck sake go to the source page and look at the data. These spikes happen all the time.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 01:33 | 3027553 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Especially when you are a teenager with a new jar of Vaseline.  

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 09:04 | 3027776 midtowng
midtowng's picture

If its a reaction to the Obama election, then this spike won't last very long. Anyone surprised by the Obama election leads a pretty sheltered life anyway.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:47 | 3028561 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"anyone suprised by the Obama election"

I don't think it was a question of surprise. I think it was waiting for confirmaton. Maybe you didn't notice all the corporations who waited until they knew it was FOUR MORE YEARS to announce widespread layoffs and the conversion of countless jobs to part-time (less than 30 hours/wk) to escape the ObamaCare mandate tax.

Even Hostess waited until the election confirmed their worst fears to Kill The Twinkie. Oh wait, that was probably Sandy.


Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:26 | 3028521 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

probably just a few lemmings


Sun, 12/02/2012 - 20:42 | 3028627 MassDecep
MassDecep's picture

It would be great to see physical silver sales.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 21:02 | 3028648 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

Total ounces (GOLD sales US Mint) per year, starting with 2000














677,000 as of end of Nov. 2012

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 00:02 | 3028893 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Just until he's finished Dcon.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 05:22 | 3029087 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

Ben Bernanke is the sexiest man alive.

He's even cuter than Kim Jong un.

Peace on Earth.  Good will to men.


Sat, 12/01/2012 - 17:53 | 3026868 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Look, Unicorn.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:24 | 3026924 DosZap
DosZap's picture

First time my huge dealer could not supply Mapes,but did sub another type.

24k,Baby all I care.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:00 | 3026877 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Gold on viagra.  Burrish.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:21 | 3026916 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Planned Event Horizon, right on schedule............

Just what they WANT.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:01 | 3026881 Lagging Indicator
Lagging Indicator's picture

Wow, that's not parabolic or even asymptotic, it's *vertical*

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:13 | 3026898 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

It's singular.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:26 | 3026930 hawk nation
hawk nation's picture


Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:28 | 3027251 tsx500
tsx500's picture

Peter North would be jealous

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:33 | 3027151 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

I believe in PMs as a store of wealth and as constitional money, but why do all the skeptical ZH minds immediately assume data/graphs are based on REAL data when the PTB in high places control what data gets released?  How easy would it be, if by design, to release data like this to accomplish some end?  That is a HUGE jump in AGE sales in a short time, and that information would almost certainly be withheld if there was interest in protecting the dollar (which so many here swear is the case with PM manipulation, myself included).  Let's be as skeptical of data which supports our contentions and beliefes as we are with data that suggests we are wrong.  If this is true, this demand spike, it is possible it is MUCH higher than what we're being told... of course, the opposite may also be true.


I maintain my position that there is significant data points which suggest that there is FAR more above ground gold than official statistics might suggest... if this is true, what better way to rob the wealth even of those who have sought refuge in what they think is a much scarcer resource than is reality?  A final blow to the final resistence against fiat debt notes?  When it is made known that far larger gold reserves and the dollar price plummets and all but the strongest of strongest hands bail out back into the FRNs? 


Okay, my scenario above is a little bit of a stretch, but take the message behind it as the point of this post.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:34 | 3027240 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Even discounting the fabled 'Black Eagle Trust', there almost certainly IS more gold above ground than 'official' estimates:

However... even at the accepted official 170,000 tonnes above gound, there is an annual stock:flow ratio of something like 60:1.

Now, according to a recent ZH article, there is ~85,000 tonnes left in the ground, but ~25% of it is unrecoverable.

So, if we say there could be another ~60,000 tonnes left to be mined, then even at 170,00 tonnes above ground, we're way past 'peak production'... and, if Philip Barton is right and there really are 1,700,000 tonnes, that means there's an even smaller proportion left to be mined....

Burrish! (as General Yamashita might have said)

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 23:04 | 3027410 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I don't care how much might be out there yet to be mined.
I care at white price it can be mined.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 09:18 | 3027786 _underscore
_underscore's picture

BigJim - isn't this a false dilemna/red herring though?  If it gets to the stage where some CB/govt/agency/whatever/  even starts to suggest that there's 10x more available and/or above ground gold than we think, then what does that say is going on in that moment? The context will be near-SHTF or currency collapse - and who would believe a word of what they said at that point?

The old saw about 'how do you tell if a politician is lying' (ans: their lips move), will be true about their statements about gold by that point (if it isn't now, in the general populace's mind).


Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:31 | 3028531 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

sure there could be gobs of 'Black gold' ...except every thoughtful review of that topic I've read says that that contention is BS...anyway Larry Summers seems to believe in the manipulation of the POG to control the dollar's value through Gibson's paradox....control the POG and keep the dollar value (relatively) high...

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:25 | 3027243 bushwarcrime
bushwarcrime's picture

well said, if I was a deviant central banker it's what I'd do to fleece the sheeple, hard to admit as a stacker though

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:21 | 3027344 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Huh. China would really be bummed.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 23:42 | 3027453 Oracle of Kypseli
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The scenario you're describing can only happen (if ever) if you own more gold than dollars. At 65% dollars to 35% gold as an example, no matter what happens to the price of gold, you can't loose a lot even if gold drops to half, (highly unlikely). But if gold goes the other direction because of a whiff of high inflation, gold price is going to overshoot exponentially, as it usually does.

I am not sure if many own PM's at this high ratio.


Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:41 | 3028867 sampo
sampo's picture

Dollar or kg- or face value -wise?

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 02:21 | 3028998 Oracle of Kypseli
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Dollar value

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:02 | 3026883 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Don't say it

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:05 | 3026887 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

What ... Gold Bitchez ?!

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:32 | 3026941 oddball
oddball's picture

Fuck Bernak?  Fuck him and the Fed too!

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:43 | 3026960 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke is just doing what the good book of economics tells him to do.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:49 | 3026971 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

And following tradition...

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:44 | 3027179 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Thats why they built Fort knox, so us domestic terrorists would have some place to store our GOLD

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 04:47 | 3027657 e-recep
e-recep's picture

traditions says moneychangers fucketh the masses whenever and wherever they could.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:05 | 3026888 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

Allow me to preach to the choir:  I've not understood why gold hasn't skyrocketed since the election.  Not that Romney would have been any different, but Obama's re-election guarantees another 4 years of $1.2+ trillion deficits.  In the words of pre-insane Alan Greenspan:

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:08 | 3026890 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Lag in gubbermint kleptocrat reporting?

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 00:25 | 3027486 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The fiat dollar relationship to gold and silver is absolutely bogus.

It is suppressed and manipulated every which way to Sunday in a paper market that could not possibly be unwound without the paper valuation of physical assets (which they do not have) skyrocketing exponentially.

This means that the present sham of a market cannot act as an actual discounting mechanism.

The “market” discounts a synthetic and suppressed value of real assets that the system needs to maintain in order to keep control and avert chaos.

Their (financial syndicates and political lackeys) policies do not follow GAP, their math does not work in the real world and the fact that they keep secrets and will not force audits, disclosure and public scrutiny is all you need to know..

except for the fact that one day something will discompose their contrived equilibrium.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 01:52 | 3027575 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

These numbers are for November right?  It would seem then that people HAVE been piling into gold since the election...since these AGEs are coming from a fixed gov't program where they can only raise the price based on spot...I mean, since the gold blanks have already been purchased, AGEs sold from the mint wouldn't drive up the spot price, right?

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:29 | 3026935 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Allow me to preach to the choir: I've not understood why gold hasn't skyrocketed since the election.


Easy,can u spell M_A_N_I_P_U_L_A_T_I_O_N?............soon they will not be able to manipulate it any longer.

Very Soon.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:05 | 3027319 beachdude
beachdude's picture

Easy,can u spell M_A_N_I_P_U_L_A_T_I_O_N?............soon they will not be able to manipulate it any longer.

Very Soon.

How soon?

Bring it, already...

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 04:49 | 3027659 e-recep
e-recep's picture

kondratieff wave theory says "before 2020".

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:31 | 3026939 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

There is a sale going on.  It isn't advertised.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 00:26 | 3028912 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Water, I think there are several reasons gold does not take off. First, is that there is  large expectation that Obama and crew will wreck the economy and return us to recession and deflation. Second, Europe could crash and do the same. Third, as individual countries in Europe begin to default, bond prices in the USA will continue to rise as one of the last safe harbors in the world. All three work against gold.

Gold would rise on expectations of default or monetization of debt. Otherwise, the demand for dollars will stay strong.

That's my take.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:08 | 3026891 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That yellow line going parabolic, is absolute sweetness>

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:08 | 3026894 aymankkhlifat
aymankkhlifat's picture

An ex here .. How much volume should you trade?  

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 18:10 | 3026895 Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

The rich cashing out of stocks and moving into the "tradional store of value"?

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