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Futures Test Friday Highs As Avalanche Of PMIs Begins With China Beat

Tyler Durden's picture


Good is 'good' it seems once again - though we do remember just a few short weeks ago when the world and his pet rabbit were hanging on every word from the Chinese leaders and their next epic embarkation on the stimulus highway. Not necessary now though; as HSBC's China Manufacturing PMI confirms Friday's NBS version that China is 'expanding' once again (though marginally). The highest print for the HSBC number in 14 months - makes perfect sense given the way the world is behaving with world trade collapsing and the mercantilist nation's key customer (that would be the USA) seeing spending slowing. Nevertheless, it's enough to run to late Friday highs in S&P 500 futures and flush out those nascent stops.  We just hope this 'expansionary' print is not a false hope as it was in October 2011... An evening full of PMIs has begun (see below)...



And S&P 500 futures knocked off that late-day spike high...


as EURUSD jerks back up to 6-week highs at 1.3047...


PMI Tracker - 0000ET So Far 9 losers and 19 winners... with 15 now contracting versus 19 contracting last month (we will update as the evening progresses)




UPDATE: ES leaking back off highs...


Charts/Data: Bloomberg

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Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:13 | 3028734 aymankkhlifat
aymankkhlifat's picture

Here are several factors that may have pressured down of $gold and silver prices during the month http://stks.co/gGDe  

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:19 | 3028743 ekm
ekm's picture

I am freaking sick and freaking tired of anybody paying attention to any data coming from Chinese gov or coming from a bank who's business model is based on drug dealing and money laundering.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:26 | 3028759 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

perfect comment

if you exclude the word Chinese

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:55 | 3028766 ekm
ekm's picture


I am freaking sick and freaking tired of anybody paying attention to any data coming from any gov or coming from a bank whose business model is based on drug dealing and money laundering.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:20 | 3028834 prains
prains's picture

a picture is now worth only two words.........  bend over




Mon, 12/03/2012 - 00:21 | 3028907 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“We just hope this 'expansionary' print is not a false hope as it was in October 2011”

Oh mercy sakes, no.. This time is different.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 00:35 | 3028922 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

Exactly, and taking information from the likes of HSBC is even worse than listening to our own "Squid" for investing advice.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 05:59 | 3029098 Dugald
Dugald's picture

But not forgetting of course...the Chinese....

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:19 | 3028745 wchild
wchild's picture



Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:35 | 3028770 ekm
ekm's picture

I'm listening to it right now. 

Thx a lot

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:01 | 3028804 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Me to/ if it's good enough for EKM, then it's good enough for me!

Funny thing is I'm watching that [Leonardo DiCaprio] flick called, " Catch Me if You Can"...

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:06 | 3028811 ekm
ekm's picture

That is a fantastic movie.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:25 | 3028752 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

seems that John McAfee may have given the slip to the  Belizean constabulary


Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:25 | 3028754 woggie
woggie's picture

guess PRC propaganda is back being better than ours.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:31 | 3028764 chump666
chump666's picture

This is what happened this time last year when the PMI prints (late 2011 early 2012) created the 2012 meltup. Oct/Nov correction was stopped in it's tracks after the HFT inspired Obama victory sell off.

A inflation/re-inflation trade that has been constant for over a year is in effect, the DXY has had 4 attempts out of 5 days to break 80.  It just broke it.

Rally on, possibly through to 2013...unless chaos throws a grenade.  Otherwise...

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:34 | 3028769 ekm
ekm's picture


If fits to my own definition of the market:



That's what this is, the Nth effort to lure suckers

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:41 | 3028778 chump666
chump666's picture

Check out the Shanghai index...lol I rest my case.

I hope a guillotine is placed out side the White House and the Fed...in anticipation of a million plus Americans very, very f*cking angry, while they get boned Wall Street gets paid.


Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:58 | 3028796 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The average american has long since forgotten about the stock market.

Madoff did pretty good for what, 20 years or so with his ponzi? He did not have a money printer. What's to say this can't go on for a hell of a lot longer than any of us ever imagined. Or it could all end tomorrow. How fked up is that.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:33 | 3028822 ekm
ekm's picture

It can go as long as Barack Fidel Obama orders the Fed to provide free flow of cash to the primary dealers to buy stocks until............no stocks are left for trading.


However, as I am currently reading Margin of Safety from Seth Klarman, Seth calls this situation as: Roach Motel which I had to look it up, it's "insect trap".

In plain words: Primary Dealers are forced to Get in, but have NO WAYS to get out. Primary Dealers are the ultimate suckers.

My wording is: FORCED BUYING, but I havent' seen any better description than the one from Seth Klarman, and remember, it was writen in 1991.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:12 | 3028823 chump666
chump666's picture

Of course, but, they need only to look at this market and compare it with the factory of the world (China) to know that they are getting super gamed by the Fed/Obama and  Wall Street.  You can't have the producer of consumer products (China) with a market that f*cked up and a market that doesn't produce anything (America) rise; in fact US stocks are (in valuation sense) are extremely overpriced.

If you are poor and the stock market rises, that's Wiemar right there.  Most people will get that.



Mon, 12/03/2012 - 04:33 | 3029057 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Many investors don't have a very clear idea as to how much of that great Chinese production either owned by or contracted to US corporates.  There is much more profit for Apple in FoxCon's producion than FC profit.  That is true for many of the valuable products made in China.  This supports margin in the US.  It's the input price squeeze that is most risky for US  equities. Oh, crap I just started looking at the SNORG tees add again.  Better get some sleep....

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:40 | 3028772 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Hard to imagine the logic here. But let me take a shot. If the fiscal cliff is going to be gone over that would mean more Bernanke printing. That can be the only reason the dollar continues to slide. Now imagine the long term consequence of this action. How can the market can go higher from here is beyond me because the US is looking at another credit downgrade if printing more money is the answer to the fiscal cliff.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:52 | 3028790 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

agree but 3/4 of the "markets" gains in last 3 yrs was made by the night thefts like tonight...

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:54 | 3028794 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

The credit downgrade hasn't happened yet, and likely isn't priced into the market, but eventually it will be. Until then, play the game.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:04 | 3028806 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

The "market" can go infinitely higher from here in terms of fiat, but in terms of gold or other commodities, that's not happening in the foreseeable future.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:16 | 3028827 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Not if and when the US credit ratings gets hit again.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:23 | 3028841 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

That's assuming that credit ratings prevent currency debasement.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:38 | 3028863 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Great comment/ heaven forbid the moment of enlightenment!

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:46 | 3028782 chump666
chump666's picture

HSBC hahahahahahah

China is a corrupt/debt ridden, behemoth dump and we have so much faith in their PMI, just check out that super rally:



Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:54 | 3028785 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This train to NOWHERE, is on full retarded , El Capitan is dead at his helm, " ridiculousness"... 

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:59 | 3028797 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What a bunch of bullshit.

What a bunch of cotton candy.

Fuck the markets, fuck China, fuck the FED.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:08 | 3028812 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

when bonner and obama open their mouth next the market will retest friday low. when they close their mouth the market will go higher, and on and on. The market is a joke.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:14 | 3028825 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

it will go on as long as people are complicit with interest rates. at some point witn the market grinding higher people will demand higher rates. with the debt ballooning at the same time there will be an endpoint. 20 trillion? 30 trillion? It's coming. Timmy knows it too. but he is still begging and pleading to lift that ceiling.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:28 | 3028846 OptionNinjaNYC
OptionNinjaNYC's picture

"The Matrix is a system, Neo. That system is our enemy. But when you're inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters. The very minds of the people we are trying to save. But until we do, these people are still a part of that system and that makes them our enemy. You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inured, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it."

I rest my case.

Hail the suckers.


Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:32 | 3028852 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

And yet the one country that should be up on this news is hovering near 52 week lows.  Looks like not even China believes their own number.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:35 | 3028858 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Chinese. Keynesian  always wong.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 23:44 | 3028869 ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

Interesting, it was just occurring to me as I was scrolling down the list that all this macro-economic and micro-economic knowledge that is constantly being transferred from country to country with such efficiency as the internet allows may result in a more robust and coordinated recovery than ever before (should there be one). Perhaps this is a universal sense of awareness coming to life on a level which up to this point has been only been maturely manifested in things like facebook and internet forums, etc. Yes, the neurons are connecting, in my opinion. The ability to tap the will of the worldly mind via the internet will lead to globally acceptable resolutions, by the merit of their derivation.  This might not be skynet, it is more like "people-net", but it is the future and I welcome it.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 01:15 | 3028959 bobthehorse
bobthehorse's picture

China's got to be the biggest myth out there.

The China Myth.

Yeah.  More poison dogfood.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 07:46 | 3029155 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

zfinx, who do you absolutely trust?? the program, the operators, the vote cast on diebold, the BLS, FBI,CIA, NSA?

tapping the will of the world while the elite sit on thier thumbs and add no control ?? I trust none of it. people -net is a laugh..try Netted People. or Jail net.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 00:32 | 3028920 chump666
chump666's picture

some bids coming in on the USD, that and the Shanghai should be freaking out people ( this time last year start of the PMIs it began to rally - somewhat).

Bulls could be slapped down if that get all euphoric next few weeks.


Mon, 12/03/2012 - 01:10 | 3028955 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Chump you will get a dip when Asia(Australia New Zealand) closes/ not China and Hong Kong... Then Europe will ramp up for 4-5 hours and sell off just in front of the New York open...

  Bernanke doing his EURO preservation programe.... OIS lending for insolvent Spanish banks<

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 01:06 | 3028952 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

China shipyards Jan-Oct. new order fall 45% on year, according to Association



Mon, 12/03/2012 - 02:39 | 3029006 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

TRUTH/ goodjob Cheap Bastard

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 05:00 | 3029076 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 risk F/x has to go up before it goes down/ It's a crazy trade

   I'm looking at multi hour charts. The euro is bid over 1.30/ It's pathetic

   Gotta hold off on the risk trade/

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