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Is That As Good As It Gets For US Macro?

Tyler Durden's picture


Much has been made of the rise in relative positive surprises in US macro data as a support for the equity market (even as bottom-up earnings and outlooks suggest otherwise). This has as much to do with macro-strategists overly-emotional downgrades and upgrades as the data itself (in all its manipulated glory). However, four times in the last six years, the macro surprise index for the US has reached two-standard deviations above its mean - and each time has marked a top in macro surprises. Just this past week, the US macro surprise index reached two-standard deviations from its mean once again - and while bond markets have started to reflect that reality (as we noted here), the rest of the market appears not to have got the message that, perhaps, this iss as good as it gets this cycle around.


Upper pane - Citi US Economic Surprise Index (and 50DMA)

Lower pane - 3 month rate-of-change and two-standard-deviation level


Chart: Bloomberg


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Mon, 12/03/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

One could conclude from this that the "analysts" who make these predictions merely follow the market and have no fucking idea what they are doing.  But surely they make their huge salaries because of their great productive contribution to society.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 20:57 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Economy ? Who cares about the economy? Didn't you hear? Kate is expecting .... And it could be twins! Isn't that just freaking awesome!?

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:11 | Link to Comment Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

I DID we know who the father is?

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

Never heard of her.   Does she present something on CNBC? 


Oh sorry, re-read your post - she's expecting something - that rules out anyone in the 'financial press'

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:05 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

Your Gold Ain't Gonna Save You, But Your Dollars Will

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:17 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"so when congress starts to get it's fiscal house in order"

 - chartistfriendfrommars

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 23:10 | Link to Comment Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Maybe in the Bizzaro world, then we can call superman to save the day

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Social mood more frugal and conservative? Did you pay any attention to the election ? Americans say they want the government to spend less as long as they don't touch their piece of the pie. The dollar is toast, just like every other piece of fiat crap you measure it against.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:23 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

REVOLUTION – 2011 time capsule.


Two days ago, the central planners hoped to agree on the American fiscal cliff looting program. Exhumed bodies who deterred think tanks and Bank of International Settlements propaganda are underway. NSA DNA profiling is being determined to shave off banking anti-force. Pope has given green light on microchipping peasants.


/winks.. Wecome to the fucking News

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment ebailey5
ebailey5's picture

Prince Will--double shot of my baby's love

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

Just Crossed the 500 DMA too....
Strategies... ?

Yeah... I know, Besides... Gold Bitchez...
What about proptection from Sarin???

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment stockscooter
stockscooter's picture

Tyler, I wish you could do an expose on the California Municipal bond market.  It took a big hit today.  Investors got 10 days of fear for the price of one.  It just had a pseudo blow-off top, as seen in the weekly chart here....          I can forsee cuts affecting unemployment rates starting here and then spreading to the public sector. 


Mon, 12/03/2012 - 23:39 | Link to Comment sunny
sunny's picture

link does not work

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 00:33 | Link to Comment Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

remove the extra spaces at the end

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 23:09 | Link to Comment IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

From what I am seeing, North American manufacturing material demand has fallen off a cliff in December. Numbers to come out later ... but it is dead as US manufacturing companies try to balance their inventories with fading demand.

We'll all just take December off, eh?

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 03:25 | Link to Comment Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Its sidewinding 1970's action

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