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Manufacturing ISM Plummets To Lowest Print Since July 2009

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for the 3rd Recovery (or is that 4th?) in the current depression: following the Chicago PMI which posted a solid beat on horrendous internals, today's Manufacturing ISM came in just as expected, at least by those skeptical of all the sugar high economic data the US population was spoon fed in the past few weeks. At 49.5, the headline PMI print was the lowest since July 2009, the biggest miss to expectations of 51.4 in 5 months, and down from 51.7. Also, as most know, as sub-50 print indicates a contraction in the manufacturing space, usually a precursor to overall recession. Particular data points of note: Employment down from 52.1 to 48.4; New Orders slide from 54.2 to 50.3, and in the worst news for GDP Exports declined, Imports rose and Inventories plunged - which was to be expected after a huge inventory build up in Q3 pushed GDP much higher in the period. Expect even more downward GDP recessions on today's ugly data. Finally, while the bulls would love to blame the collapse on Sandy, it was not mentioned anywhere in the release and the ISM's Holcome said just one respondent even mentioned Sandy in the release, which means the manufacturing reality will only get worse as the full impact of Sandy is internalized.

Lowest print since July 2009...

 

 

and lowest employment sub-index since Sept 2009...

 

The respondents are hardly optimistic about anything:

  • "Economy is very sluggish. Production is down and orders have slowed considerably from Q1." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Conditions still appear to be positive for continued growth in sales." (Machinery)
  • "Business is steady, but not much more than that. We are in a lull." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "The principle business conditions that will affect the company over the next three or four quarters will be the U.S. federal government tax and budgetary policies; the impact of those policies is not yet clear." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
  • "Differences between first half of year and remaining half are very dramatic, growing to a peak in the middle of the year with a gradual decline since." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
  • "Seeing a slowdown in request for quote activity." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "The fiscal cliff is the big worry right now. We will not look toward any type of expansion until this is addressed; if the program that is put in place is more taxes and big spending cuts — which will push us toward recession — forget it." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Seeing a slowdown in demand across markets." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • "East Coast storms delayed some shipments." (Primary Metals)
  • "Global economic uncertainty still seems to be sticking around which is not necessarily making things worse, but it is also not making things better from a demand standpoint." (Chemical Products)

Source: ISM

 

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Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:16 | 3029590 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

jISM Bitchez!

 

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:18 | 3029591 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We manufacture stuff?

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:20 | 3029601 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

reality.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 12:21 | 3029815 Manthong
Manthong's picture

No problema..

Plenty of high protein iPads coming from China.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:22 | 3029610 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Manufacturing is sooo 20th century. I thought we can produce products by downloading them from our iPads?

Cause according the Fed and financial "markets", the scarcity problem has been solved and economic calculation is merely a hobby these days.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:25 | 3029623 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Dollar bills.

And burgers.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 12:45 | 3029908 midtowng
midtowng's picture

We manufacture federal reserve notes. That's all you need these days.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:18 | 3029593 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

how about some qe4..lol

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:19 | 3029596 docj
docj's picture

Shocking - another post-election bad data print. Unexpected, of course.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:38 | 3029660 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Notice how the market strangely is ramped a day or hours before what is obviously bad news. Once the news is released you can see the supercomputers fighting to keep the market from tanking. That this is allowed to happen should be shocking to everyone.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 12:11 | 3029769 asteroids
asteroids's picture

I predict that the market will mysteriously ramp Thurs or pre market Fri. The jobs number will be terrible, but the market response will be "well controlled".

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:21 | 3029603 Cman5000
Cman5000's picture

I'm sure they will blame Sandy for this also ...

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:25 | 3029622 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I knew a Sandy once...

but back than, she was nothing more than a breeze in the sack...

 

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:23 | 3029614 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Graphs are like a box of chocolats...

you never know what you gona get...

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:26 | 3029630 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Hmm, don't know about that one - all the government sponsored ones look the business but once you bite into them - taste of shit.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:23 | 3029616 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pump....aaaaand dump.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:31 | 3029644 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

only transitorily

market going back to green

 

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:42 | 3029670 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Speaking of dump... the morning coffee lossened things up pretty good.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:24 | 3029617 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

This should send the S&P 500 up 20 points

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:27 | 3029632 Rainman
Rainman's picture

yup...Mr. Efficient Market is all green

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:34 | 3029652 youngman
youngman's picture

Germany and France are at year highs....Hmmmmmm...lol

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:36 | 3029656 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

This data release has caused the Spy to find support while causing precious metals to sell OFF!! Without question, regardless of profit or loss - Any person trying to play this market should be institionalized. There's more integrity selling (and smoking) CRACK!

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:26 | 3029628 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

OT:  Just wanted to give a shout out to the liberal gun haters/mentally retarded/we hate guns club.

Heres a clue.

GUNS DON'T MAKE DECISIONS, PEOPLE DO..

 

So, now yall fuck off.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:28 | 3029635 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

About time for Timmah and Uncle Shalom to make an appearance on the debt ceiling issue for moar diversion from the real problems.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:29 | 3029638 realtick
Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:31 | 3029643 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Is this the little 'hump' GS was talking about before the growth spurt in 2013?

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:32 | 3029645 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

BUT BUT Dudley said this morning QE infinity was working.

#wealtheffect4evr

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:42 | 3029671 mr1963
mr1963's picture

When does BLS get hauled before congress to explain their rationale? Will do zero good, but at least this country could pretend to care when its government manipulates an election.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:43 | 3029672 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

This isn't possible!

We are in recovery!

Green shoots!

Mustard seeds!

If only you believe it will happen!

(/sarc)

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:46 | 3029681 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

There is no place like Rome!

There is no place like Rome!

There is no place like Rome!

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 11:54 | 3029707 EZT
EZT's picture

Dont worry, its a bull flag formation...!!!

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 12:05 | 3029747 spartan speculation
spartan speculation's picture

and theres the reason why the euro/usd will go higher. Ben will print more money for bonds on the 12th. 

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 12:19 | 3029802 djsmps
djsmps's picture

Business headline from latimes.com

Manufacturing sector slips in November; Superstorm Sandy to blame?

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 12:53 | 3029934 sbenard
sbenard's picture

To quote a local 10-year old:
"That's sooooo unfair!"

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 13:02 | 3029958 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

Next stop SPX 1290 around the end of the year according to an analog that has called every major turn since April (so far...)   This isn't the big one, but it'll feel like it.

https://pebblewriter.com/at-last-2/

 

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 13:04 | 3029964 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

So much for the 3rd Recovery (or is that 4th?)

....63rd, actually.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 15:42 | 3030468 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

I am expecting the data to pick up again (possibly briefly) in October 2016

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 16:17 | 3030566 spartan speculation
spartan speculation's picture

next stop is 1500/25 not 1290. we live in an economy controlled by central banks and they will print more money next week to buy bonds. 

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