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The 11 "Death Spiral" States

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Eleven states made Forbes' list of danger spots for investors including California, New York, Illinois, and Ohio. They warned (and with the cliff it is even more critical), if you have muni bonds in these states - clean up your portfolio; if your career takes you there - rent, don't buy! Two factors determine their list of 'fiscal hellholes'. The first is whether there are more takers (someone who draws money from the government) than makers (the gainfully employed). The second is a state credit-worthiness score (via Conning) based on large debts, uncompetitive business climates, weak home prices, and bad trends in employment. Conning rates North Dakota the safest state to lend money to, Connecticut the most hazardous. A state qualifies for the Forbes' death spiral list if its taker/maker ratio exceeds 1.0 and it resides in the bottom half of Conning’s ranking. See below for the 11 states to avoid...no matter what Bob Toll, Larry Yun, Bob Pisani, or Alexandra Lebenthal tells you..

 

Number 11 - Ohio Taker ratio: 1.00
The battleground state has a fiscal standoff between takers (people collecting welfare, a government salary or a government pension) and makers (private sector employees).

Number 10 - Hawaii Taker ratio: 1.02
Dark clouds over Waikiki Beach: Hawaii has slightly more takers than makers.

 

Number 9 - Illinois Taker ratio: 1.03
Dubious ex-gov Rod Blagojevich personifies what's wrong with this state: Too many goodies promised to insiders. Unfunded pensions contribute to the balance of 103 takers to every 100 makers.

Number 8 - Kentucky Taker ratio:1.05
Twilight in Lexington. People drawing from government slightly outnumber people chipping in with private-sector jobs.

Number 7 - South Carolina Taker ratio:1.06
Riptides on Folly Beach.

 

Number 6 - New York Taker ratio: 1.07
Blackout in the Flatiron district after the hurricane. Manhattan still has a vibrant financial sector. Manufacturing there is extinguished. Causes: taxes, unions, regulations and cheap apparel workers abroad.

 

Number 5 - Maine Taker ratio: 1.07

Casco Bay, Portland. This is a state with a beautiful coastline and a ratio of 107 drawers from the public fisc to every 100 contributors.

 

Number 4 - Alabama Taker ratio: 1.10

Cityscape seen from the Vulcan statue in Birmingham.

 

Number 3 - California Taker ratio: 1.39

California is generous to a fault, at least to state employees and the needy. To private sector employees, who are outnumbered, it is not so hospitable.

 

Number 2 - Mississippi Taker ratio: 1.49

Flooding near Tunica in May 2011. The state ranks second to worst on the list of states burdened by a high ratio of takers (welfare recipients and state employees) to makers (private sector workers). 

 

And The Worst State to live in or lend to is...

Number 1 - New Mexico Taker ratio: 1.53

Wildfire near the Los Alamos Laboratory in June 2011. In our taker/maker ratio, federal employees are excluded from the taker count since their cost is not borne locally. That doesn't save this state from having the worst ratio in the nation.

 

As Forbes advises:

To lend money to California, Illinois or the other nine states perched on the precipice requires a leap of faith. So does buying a house in those locales. Don’t count on a property tax limit to protect your home’s value. If other taxes are high enough, there won’t be any buyers.

 

Source: Forbes

 

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Wed, 12/05/2012 - 03:27 | 3034889 Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

Boehner stated again that he won't raise taxes but will end "certain" tax exempt investor havens. I believe an 11th hour deal will be reached and it will end muni-bond tax havens. Something to look for because the only reason anyone is in a 'taker' muni-bond is for the tax haven they provide. There will be a stampede out of all muni's followed by an avoidance like the great plague.

  Of course Ben's chopper will be there to dump plenty of "aid".  Then we will see gold make it's inflation adjusted adjustment, and eventually by two-fold.

 

   Hey I know you all know where this is all heading at some point, but if muni-bonds are part of the "deal",which is increasingly likely, then this "some point" becomes much clearer.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 05:50 | 3034898 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Looks like an electoral landslide for Obama based on those 11 states.

135 blue electoral votes from the 11 states for Obama.
32 red electoral votes from the 11 states for Romney.

Shock.

Baseless fiat fuels socialism. Buy PMs.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 04:12 | 3034904 besnook
besnook's picture

hawaii is workers' paradise. everyone wants to work for .gov or unions if they can. this correlates with the highest median income in the usa at 67000 with the highest average real estate prices and a booming economy with solid and increasing real estate values in a steady market. why? hawaii imports money from all over the world plus the usa federal .gov. so everyone else pays for the takers and the makers make boatloads of money. it is a model that the rest of the states should envy. of course, if you are poor in hawaii life is not easy

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 06:43 | 3034969 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

GovGuam: the island's largest employment agency (of ethnic Chamorros--Filipinos and outter Micronesians need not apply) which usefully doubles as the mechanism for said Chamorros to embezzle the annual federal stipend.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 05:57 | 3034948 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Stand apart, yet hang anyway.

11 + 39 = 50 states in a death spiral.

The United State of Fed.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 06:24 | 3034960 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Independent Guam!

(Let the whole dole-fattened society finally learn to swim on their own again! (Not to mention regain some dignity.))

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 07:46 | 3034994 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 Shallow article.

The ratio of unemployed may be an indication of the MISERY index,

but it does NOT explain why there are the "death spirals".

The wealth disparity is due to an UPWARD transfer of wealth and concomitant power.

Are the "makers" to include banksters and war merchants? Is the world's number one prison industry part of the "makester" economy? What about the factory foods industry? Nor should the health fraud insurers and big pharma go unmentioned.

 

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 07:54 | 3035002 Under construct...
Under construction...'s picture

Interesting metric. But I moved from NY to SC a few years ago and believe that this study does not differentiate between types of "takers." There is a world of difference between the massive pubic assitance I saw in NYC and such "takers" as the folks at Shaw Air Force base, Fort Jackson, and all the retireees here in SC, amny of whom also work part time.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 08:36 | 3035045 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

Let me see if I have this straight. Private sector employment is given the label "makers" and other forms of compensation, benefit or support is given the name "takers"?

And this is an article deemed worthy of publication?

I call BS on this propaganda.

If private sector employment is so sacrosanct, superior and important, why, then, was America's manufacturing base allowed to be removed, destroyed and given away with no thought of requiring replacement private sector jobs?

I can answer that. The private sector does not create jobs any moreso than the public sector does. And, as we know, the private sector more readily destroys jobs than creates them. In a profit system, the cost of labor is always and ever viewed as something to be lowered.

Look, bitchez, the private sector is hostile to jobs, opposed to paying higher wages, and batshit crazy when it comes to forking over benefits.

The article is a horrific exercise in deceit.

:-(

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 12:33 | 3035955 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

If private sector employment is so sacrosanct, superior and important, why, then, was America's manufacturing base allowed to be removed, destroyed and given away with no thought of requiring replacement private sector jobs?

I can answer that. The private sector does not create jobs any moreso than the public sector does. And, as we know, the private sector more readily destroys jobs than creates them. In a profit system, the cost of labor is always and ever viewed as something to be lowered.

Look, bitchez, the private sector is hostile to jobs, opposed to paying higher wages, and batshit crazy when it comes to forking over benefits.

The article is a horrific exercise in deceit.

 

Testify brother.... !

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 21:28 | 3037829 WAMO556
WAMO556's picture

Let me guess..... Your a fucking taker. Pisses me off that I have to pay taxes so that some dumbshit can sit around on his ass playing with his dick. It's a GIFT!!! Because you sure as shit didn't work for it. I am ALL for indentured servitude. You don't work but you get a check from the government.... YOUR ASS IS MINE!!

BITCHES

And if you don't like that...too efffing bad!

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 08:57 | 3035071 Keyser
Keyser's picture

In the immortal words of Dean Vernon Wormer, "Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son."  The question is, just how long do they expect the rest of us to keep paying for the multi-generational welfare recipients to keep pumping out kids they don't want in order to receive a hand-outs from the g'ment?  I know, it's a rhetorical question. 

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:49 | 3035452 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

This is the USA?

I live in central Florida. There was article in a local paper recently that described a young struggling unmarried couple's hardships. The young woman became pregnant, but her doctor recommended abortion due to a severe genetic condition the unborn child had inherited. The woman refused and gave birth anyway. The child just turned one and had a nice party. I have no problem with this. People are free to make their own decisions in life. However, here is where I start to get quite annoyed. Neither parent has a job or insurance. The child's doctor bills have run into the millions of dollars. All paid by taxpayers. The icing on the cake is the fact that the parent's are living off THE BABY'S SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY CHECK!!!

WTF!!!!

Young unemployed citizens take note (if they haven't already)! Why work when there is money to be made with unprotected sex!

More babies = bigger check.

Kiss the USA bye bye.

Now, where did I put that passport of mine?

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 19:38 | 3044316 Bon Hagar
Bon Hagar's picture

By next Tuesday, Michigan will be more than likely a Right To Work state! (R) Gov. Snydar had side stepped the issue until the unions declared war.

Interesting times indeed...after 8 years of Jennifer Granholm's incompetence, Michigan's not on this list!

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