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Bloomberg's 'Fab Five' Spending Signals Suggest Slump Soon

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the foundation of our economy now one of gluttony and excess (at all costs), the significance of the slowdown in consumer spending in the latest GDP data cannot be underestimated. As Bloomberg Briefs notes, real consumer spending fell 0.3% in October, and is only 1.3% above year-ago levels - the US economy has a propensity to slip into recession any time the 12-month pace of real consumer spending falls below 2.0%. Their so-called ‘Fab Five’ indicators of discretionary spending took a notable turn for the worse in October. Dining out fell 0.4% MoM in October and is only +1.5% YoY – its slowest pace since April 2010. Spending on cosmetics and perfumes fell 0.04% in October, continuing the negative trend from its peak registered in the summer of 2011. Spending on women’s and girls’ clothing slumped 1.8% in October, following a 0.1% decline in September. Casino gambling fell 1.6% in October, while spending on jewelry and watches fell 0.1% in the same month. All-in-all, the consumer's balance-sheet-recession continues...

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg Briefs

 

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Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:39 | 3033084 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

what people have to actually use the stove now??..lol

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:41 | 3033092 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Going long on wood stoves is a clever trade.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:46 | 3033111 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Microwaves.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:24 | 3033234 CPL
CPL's picture

Maybe for scrap to sell it back to our masters.  We've all been royally fucked.  Copy, save the file as HTML and read it.  Everything appears on paper to be folded under the MDAX index from now on.  I was wondering where the puppet strings were. 

 

Here they are.

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/19617/000089109212003962/00008910...

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:01 | 3033158 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Throw some gun sale charts in the mix..

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:18 | 3033215 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

Crykie ! My wife just bought an M-4 carbine. I hope it's the state of the country and not me pushing her to buy a semi-automatic assualt rifle.

Better check my behavior, just in case.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:50 | 3033306 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Maybe check yer life insurance policy for recent changes to "beneficiaries"...

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:39 | 3033086 edb5s
edb5s's picture

FORWARD!

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:53 | 3033137 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Last command given by Lord Cardigan as he advanced in the now infamous Charge of the light brigade, Bacalava Russia. A suicidal calvery charge against emplaced artillary. Seems fitting in our current situation.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 00:31 | 3034746 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

balaclava (or balaklava)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balaklava

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:40 | 3033088 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I wonder if my grandparents were worried about slipping into a recession during the depression. I should have asked them but I never knew I would be living a dystopian nightmare.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:52 | 3033317 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

lol!  The notion that we should be worried about slipping into a recession is like worrying about expired persons slipping into a coma.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:43 | 3033102 Cdad
Cdad's picture

This is EXACTLY how the market crack up began at the end of 2007.  Who is anyone on The BlowHorn [CNBC] kidding with their nonstop bullshit stream about how stocks are cheap and a "buy"?  I do believe it is simply time to short the crap out of COMCAST shares, as management there obviously believes that the old BlowHorn model is still working fine, and Average Joe is a moron...never mind 2 years staight of fund flows out of these ridiculously broken markets.

Will the criminal syndicate Wall Street status quo just die already?  Thank  you.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:48 | 3033117 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Just wait, someone will use this as an example of how well we've been "muddling through."

Ain't dead yet!

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:48 | 3033123 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Financial repression has consequences. By '15 this will look like the gilded age.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:49 | 3033125 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

Clearly no need to worry here because once the fiscal cliff deal is done (which is only minutes away), the US economy is "poised to take off" and disposable income will skyrocket. And on top of that next week Benny B will start creating an additional $45B of wealth every month. Hooray!

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:56 | 3033142 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Guess the restaurants open in the Goldman Sachs building during Sandy didn't cut it.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 14:56 | 3033147 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I am betting Bloomberg might just be able to find an increase in spending as it relates to pharmaceuticals dealing with depression, as well as booze. Just a guess though.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:01 | 3033156 gjp
gjp's picture

Sounds like a good reason to buy AMZN.  Actually, the sun rising in the East is generally a good reason ... makes as much sense as anything else I can think of and it's got better correlation with actual results.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:01 | 3033159 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

“The five marks of the Roman decaying culture:

Concern with displaying affluence instead of building wealth;

Obsession with sex and perversions of sex;

Art becomes freakish and sensationalistic instead of creative and original;

Widening disparity between very rich and very poor;

Increased demand to live off the state.”

- Gibbon

 

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:02 | 3033160 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Fuck these fucking bullshit markets.

 

 

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:06 | 3033172 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

When discretionary spending slows on gifts that get you laid, it's hard times...

 

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:13 | 3033199 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All I see in those numbers are that US women are too fat to get asked out on dates to casinos.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:19 | 3033220 BraveSirRobin
BraveSirRobin's picture

A date at a casino? Really? Is dinner at Denny's included in that?

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:43 | 3033284 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

These numbers indicate that; yes, dinner at Denny's is included.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:31 | 3033248 flattrader
flattrader's picture

and the men too fat AND bald...so why bother?

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 17:31 | 3033590 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Small feet and small tallywhackers.

We all know nothing grows in the shade, snack kings!

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:46 | 3033297 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

I own a consumer discretionary biz and we had our biggest event of the year this past weekend. Lowest revenue we've ever brough it during this event - including 2008 and 2009. Pretty scary and telling IMO.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:53 | 3033323 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The recession started in....

a) 2008

b) 2000

c) 1971

d) 1933

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 16:02 | 3033339 akak
akak's picture

The answer:  e) 1913

Or, just possibly, f) 1865

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:55 | 3033326 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

"Spending on cosmetics and perfumes fell 0.04% in October"

 

Come on that's nothing ! 0.04% !!!! I don't see any doom there

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 16:42 | 3033454 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Math is a cruel mistress.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 15:56 | 3033329 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look the problem is just poor aspirational role models for the sheeple: Tell them that they too can party like a Kardashian if they open their wallets big and wide and shop. On credit.

Tue, 12/04/2012 - 22:10 | 3034336 illyia
illyia's picture

Okay, let's start with the original quote:

 the significance of the slowdown in consumer spending in the latest GDP data cannot be underestimated.

Now, for clarity's sake, eliminate what does not matter in this sentence.

the significance cannot be underestimated.

I so-o-o can underestimate the significance... by flipping to the next article. Swish - significance underestimated.

I think you meant that you cannot overestimate the significance.

Further or farther, then or than, time or space, reality or fantasy... whatever. It is only the symbolic form of communication through which all Our Ideas Are Expressed... whatever...

I am probably overestimating the importance here.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 15:09 | 3036621 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

      Further or farther, then or than, time or space, reality or fantasy... whatever. It is only the symbolic form of communication through which all Our Ideas Are Expressed... whatever...

<hffffp>...dude...that's so like out there man....here...

(Seriously though: yanno education in English is a waste of money and all.  You needn't be literate for some rich guy to find a way to make a buck off your labor.)

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 03:09 | 3034881 nastaking
nastaking's picture

SKYTABS V700D Tablet PC sales have declined in the U.S., helping iOS regain the top spot among smartphone platforms sold in the three-month period ending in October, according to the latest research from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech

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