UK's Osborne Delays Fiscal Target; Leaves AAA Future In Limbo
UPDATE: GBP at lows of day - moar QE?
UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne delivered his Autumn 'Budget' Statement this morning and, as Citi notes, while he signaled that the struggling still-AAA nation is on course to achieve its cyclically-adjusted surplus on a rolling five-year horizon; the government now expects that net public debt/GDP ratio will start falling only in 2016/17 - a year later than originally planned. Mr Osborne attributed the softening in the debt/GDP target to growth underperformance in the UK and the Eurozone; leaving Moody's decision in early 2013 on the AAA rating still in jeopardy (the rating agency put the UK on negative watch and warned the coalition government to refrain from abandoning its ambitious fiscal austerity targets). GDP forecasts have been lowered, with a 0.1% contraction now seen this year (from a +0.8% forecast in the March budget). The 2013 and 2014 forecasts are also lowered to 1.2% and 2.0%, from 2.0% and 2.7% respectively. For now, cable (GBPUSD) has rallied back off knee-jerk reaction lows to around unchanged.
Losing another AAA-rated collateral safe-haven would be a major problem so soon after the EFSF/ESM and with the debt ceiling debacle hanging heavy...