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UK's Osborne Delays Fiscal Target; Leaves AAA Future In Limbo

Tyler Durden's picture





 

UPDATE: GBP at lows of day - moar QE?

UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne delivered his Autumn 'Budget' Statement this morning and, as Citi notes, while he signaled that the struggling still-AAA nation is on course to achieve its cyclically-adjusted surplus on a rolling five-year horizon; the government now expects that net public debt/GDP ratio will start falling only in 2016/17 - a year later than originally planned. Mr Osborne attributed the softening in the debt/GDP target to growth underperformance in the UK and the Eurozone; leaving Moody's decision in early 2013 on the AAA rating still in jeopardy (the rating agency put the UK on negative watch and warned the coalition government to refrain from abandoning its ambitious fiscal austerity targets). GDP forecasts have been lowered, with a 0.1% contraction now seen this year (from a +0.8% forecast in the March budget). The 2013 and 2014 forecasts are also lowered to 1.2% and 2.0%, from 2.0% and 2.7% respectively. For now, cable (GBPUSD) has rallied back off knee-jerk reaction lows to around unchanged.

 

 

Losing another AAA-rated collateral safe-haven would be a major problem so soon after the EFSF/ESM and with the debt ceiling debacle hanging heavy...

 


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Wed, 12/05/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment tradewithdave
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Lasting Middle East Peace, now available in an easy-to-download video.  Hillary: The Tribute

 

http://tradewithdave.com/?p=13995

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
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We're all fine over here, nothing to see, chip chip cheerio!

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
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Must be working if they're still AAA. Can't really explain it otherwise.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

That TAX THE RICH plan seems to working out brilliantly-

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:07 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I thought Gordon Brown had eliminated boom and bust?

He proudly stood and took full credit for it, so it must be true.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

James Gordon Brown eliminated something but it wasn't Boom or Bust....maybe it was just Hope

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

FFF

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

bla bla fiddled figures bla

bla pensions raid bla bla

bla money bla printing bla.

On monday the UK government announced it was giving tax inspectors an extra £77 million pa, specifically to `crack down` on the avoidance of corporation tax by multinationals.

The following day a spokesman from HMRC (the tax collectors) voiced his confusion at the announcement, stating that it had been agreed with the governmemt that just 5% of said money would be used to investigate multinationals - the rest was for the investigation of `rich people` and small business.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Sounds like Greece's debt target of 120% of GDP by 2014 2016 2018 2020.

(shit, strikethrough doesn't work)

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

No one cares what Moody's says.  Any rules still dependent on ratings will be changed.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
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For all of you American friends.

This country, of which dapper osbourne is its chancellor, has been proven beyond reasonable doubt to be the most corrupt, thieving, self-serving, evil and down right insane in the history of mankind.  We have over here former, current and who knows how many more to be uncovered peodophiles in the highest of jobs, left untouched for god knows how long, a prime minister who equates going after them as "gay bashers", a fourty something overgrown child as chancellor, a fourty something overgrown child as deputy prime minister, a fourty something overgrown child as leader-of-the-opposition and a country on its fucking knees in debt.

If you want to see whats wrong with our collective world, take five minutes and study my country, Great Britain.  It is an immoral, beyond help land of chancers, thieves, and fucking peodophiles.  This is coming your way America, the learned class have no level of which they will not lower themselves.  And to top it off, each and every "hounourable gentleman" our MP's are fucking skimming the fuck out their expenses and sticking it right up the arse of the man on the street.

Great Britain eh?  Take the political class, each and every last damn one of them, and put a bullet in their heads.  The world would be a better place, believe me.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

You have a very elegant turn of phrase sir ! You forgot Kate Middleton's morning sickness though.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
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Yes jack, what about that dole wallers morning sickness?

Five live this morning has updated me every fifteen minutes this morning wether I like it or not.

God only knows why a simple peasant like me would want want to know about an inbred 14th generation whores' child.  But of course without five live I may never have found out......

Every fifteen minutes of course ;-)

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Great. But it's funny these aren't getting any more coverage now.

http://www.showbizspy.com/article/252413/kate-middleton-nude-pictures-a-...

 

 

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Too taboo mate.  And to be fair minded here, after that inbred wills has had its wicked way with the kate, I wouldnt touch her with a stolen dick, never mind me own.

Funny what hatred can do mate eh?

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment notadouche
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Would've been better off with Ozzie Osbourne as chancellor.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment smacker
smacker's picture

Why don't you tell us what you really really think of Britain? You know, get it off yer chest... ;-)

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

:-)

Hahaha its snowing like hell up here, cheers for the laugh....

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

This is shaping up...possibly...to be capitulation day in gold.  All my charts will be focused there today.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
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Deficit to fall from 7.9% to 6.9% of GDP this year, and to continue falling to 1.6% by 2017/18 equivalent to a borrowing forecast of £108bn this year to £31bn in 2017/18.

By my calculations this is going to increase Debt to GDP by c. 20% by excess spending of around 1/4 trillion pounds.There is no financial crisis this year. Unemployment and the actual level of GDP is higher than it was in 2008/2009.

The ONS in its November 2012 statement showed Public sector net debt was £1,068.8 billion at the end of October 2012, equivalent to 67.9% of gross domestic product (GDP). This means that Debt to GDP will increase to c. 90% of GDP in the next four years, if the "optimistic" OBR forecasts are valid, which most people doubt. We are sinking more and more into debt and should cut public expenditure and/or increase taxes by at least £80 billion a year TODAY! UK GDP = ? 1.6 trillion so cut spending and increase taxes by 5% of GDP

Looks suspiciously like a worse position than the US. The UK thinks that there are hundreds of billions of pounds to piss up against the wall forever.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Office of Budget RESPONSIBILITY???

Now theres a fucking oxymoron.......

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

I was an oxymoron once. Now I have taken my ill-gotten gains, do no work and pay zero tax or "national insurance". As far as I can see, this government and Labour are supporters of mobocracy and welfare voters dominate to maintain deficits. Looks to me the nation is scared to take on welfare bludgers, rather like giving in to terrorists hiding behind hostages (legitimate welfare recipients). Place is growing the 5% who will slit your throat OR not slit your throat if you gove them a benefit cheque.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Good for you 2009,

Meet your like minded friend in me, I still work, but not as you would know it.  If you know what I mean ;-)

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Fear not lad,  Canucks are sending you one of our brightest to fix up your country. After all he has set us all up for a real ass fuck once interest rates start to rise. I'm sure he should be able to lead your sorry lot to wonderous prosperity.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

let me know the percentage of canadians who can no longer sit down and we can see how this compares with Merv the Swerve and guage future haemerrhoid creation rates via "gap" analysis.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Cheers mate!!

Now thats fixed, I'm off for a pint.  Smashing.....

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

In the new normal, debt bubbles are not an issue, and should under no circumstances be investigated. or the responsible held to account.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment smacker
smacker's picture

"...welfare voters dominate to maintain deficits. Looks to me the nation is scared to take on welfare bludgers"

Correct. It was all spelt out here:  http://aracari.warpmail.net/Misc/DM-53%25-homes-are-burden-on-state-bene...

Dependency on the state is no accident...

And here is why Scotland will NEVER vote for independence:  http://aracari.warpmail.net/Misc/DT-nine-in-ten-Scots-live-off-state-pat...

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

I think 10 Angels can dance on a pinhead and my forecast is as good as yours. I also think it will rain at 9am on 5th June 2018.......do you have a better take on the weather that day ?  George Osborne is a 41-year old with no experience of anything but being the son of a rich man who - like so many - thinks political office is a performing role simply in a theatrical sense. It is increasingly clear that there will be NO CHANGE, NO SOLUTION, NO IMPROVEMENT under the current political system which is solely concerned with preserving the Status of the People who Brought You This Disaster. Having lost your life savings you are now invited to invest your lives with these Shysters

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment smacker
smacker's picture

Yeahbut...we must give credit to Osborne/Cameron & Co for getting away with increasing state spending, thereby increasing the annual deficit/national debt whilst fooling the citizenry and markets into believing that we are immersed in austerity. Textbook economists wheeled on to TV News programmes are all Lefties and haven't got a clue what's going on. They just grunt and bleet when they're told to.

The ones being royally screwed are savers and those coming up for retirement, wanting to buy an annuity, ie people in the age group 50+.

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

both Boris of London and Nigel of Porridge say this Cameron government is socialist and softy on Eurozone.

So, its time to hand the keys of London to the biggest Oligarchs in town; whatever their creed or breed, there is only only rule : we wash whiter than the White House does! 

 

Wed, 12/05/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Ya know if you keep extending the dates out...those pensioners keep on dying...he might have a point....or have it right...lol..more kidney pie sir????

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