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Claims Drop To 370K, Beat Expectations Even As Unadjusted Claims Soar By 140K In One Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And so the BLS and DOL are back to "seasonal adjustments." Because in a week in which the Sandy effect was supposed to fade, at least on a seasonally adjusted basis, nothing could spoil the party. And sure enough, the headline number dropped from an upward revised (how else) 395,000 to 370,000, well below the expected 380,000. The real story, however, is how the DOL is doing all it can to smooth the noise, because in the week ended December 1, Not Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims soared by 139,678 - the highest since January, to a whopping 498,619. Compare this to the SA number of 370,000, and one can see why in the aftermath of Sandy, it is quite clear that between hurricane distortions and seasonal adjustments, the headline number is completely meaningless. Confirming this was the surge in Continuing Claims, which ripped from 2,835,671 to 3,301,200, an increase in continuing claims of 465,529, or nearly half a million, in one week! But at least the pre-election boost of those collecting extended claims is over, with those on EUCs down by 110K in one week, thereby ending the extended Uncle Sam handout for over a hundred thousand Americans, who will now be forced to seek solace in disability benefits.

Seasonally Adjusted claims below:

And Unadjusted claims:

Source: DOL

 

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Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:47 | 3038914 JasperNewtonDaniel
JasperNewtonDaniel's picture

Sandy, bitchez!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:50 | 3038926 AU5K
AU5K's picture

The story needs to be, "see, everything is ok, if only Republicans would allow us to raise taxes by 4% on 1% of the taxpaying public, all our troubles would be solved"

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:10 | 3038983 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

You bitchez need to start paying our taxes!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:12 | 3038992 CPL
CPL's picture

No more.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:14 | 3038995 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Say it with me "Beating expectations, all... the... way... down..."

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:48 | 3038915 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:48 | 3039091 vato poco
vato poco's picture

WAR IS PEACE

fREEDOM IS SLAVERY

UNEMPLOYMENT IS FALLING

THINGS ARE GOING GREAT!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 11:00 | 3039159 pods
pods's picture

I'll pull out.

Just the tip, I promise!

The ship is unsinkable!

I will not monetize the debt!

pods

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:47 | 3038917 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Where is this increase in the US economy that Goldman decided to put a sell on GOLD.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:01 | 3038955 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Wanna see what is happening in the US economy? Take a look at this chart (hat tip to Mish)...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Even though student debt has increased by 74,6%, total US Consumer debt has decreased by 8.6%...

This chart says it all for an economy that WAS dependent on consumption for 70% of GDP.

Goldman's call on gold? Just talking their book unless they know that Benny is going to raise interest rates to save the dollar. I doubt it.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:19 | 3039006 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Whipsnae:  "This chart says it all for an economy that WAS dependent on consumption for 70% of GDP."

 

That is still consumption. The difference is in services instead of manufactured goods.

 

I didn't read the post from Mish, but I would gather that newly exposed problem is that this new consumption is producing less benefit to the overall economy compared to consumption of manufactured goods.

In other words, we are having great numbers of people getting worthless degrees that aren't able to pay back their loans. These new graduates don't produce anything or a part of the process of producing physical goods the world wants. They are all social workers of various degrees and of various speicialization. The student is the asset (with their education) and we are finding that the student is basically worthless (non politically correct statement). Whereas in most manufactured goods, there is generally a secondary market to sell those goods that aren't selling well in the prime retail market. And if that doesn't work, you sell it overseas to third world markets. Try deporting a liberal with a new BA in philosophy to some third world country!

Liberals have been producing ignorant students in useless fields that have no productive or selling value in America or abroad.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:25 | 3039030 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In other words, humanity is an unstainable ponzi itself.  Same as it ever was.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 14:29 | 3039848 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

unstainable bitchez!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 15:29 | 3040115 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

" humanity is an unstainable ponzi itself "

This. Until we find an economic system that human nature cannot destroy... The 'new' system would necessarily incorporate sustainable growth. If such a thing as sustainable growth is at all possible.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:11 | 3038987 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I read their sell on gold.  The research and charts they provided were transparently nonsense.  Someone came up with than manure in a hurry.  They should have said "just because" rather than embarrass themselves by putting out that report.

The meme is "recovery and raging stocks".  But the truth is "inflation and rising stocks".  It seems politically motivated becasue they are unwilling to state the obvious fact that stuff will not rise due to recovery, but only due to printing.  Bashing gold in the process is just more of the same political clap trap. 

Lloyd got called before the man a week ago.  Before that he was all bearish.  Suddenly, after speaking with Obama, he is all rosey.  So he is doing his part of whatever deal was agreed upon.

The fact is we are going to have a re-run of what happened after the 2009 bottom based on printing money.  I am bullish on stocks and gold both.  I am not bullish on the economy.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:14 | 3038997 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

+1... What Qvarius said

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:48 | 3038918 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Aren't we in the same damn season as last week?

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:06 | 3038971 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Same one that started in 1Q07...

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:49 | 3038920 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Damn it!...

 

We need another disaster for job growth...pronto!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:58 | 3038944 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Snowmaggedon !....coming right up.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:49 | 3038921 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

In other news, it's 8:40 a.m.  Guess where gold is going.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:53 | 3038931 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I don't watch Gold prices anymore since I lost all mine in that unfortunate boating accident.

<I've got to get me a bigger boat.>

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:00 | 3038946 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

I find this type of comment amusing especially whenever you happen to accidently find your lost gold, you'll be taxes appropriately. Better to never admit you had any PM's to begin with and to make sure to all that you deal with that it is totally private - period.

 

Of course now we'll have to tax you on your larger boat if you get one. And the carbon emmissions that boat is leaking, another tax on that!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:04 | 3038968 Rainman
Rainman's picture

And don't forget to short sell you home before Jan.1 or you'll be taxed on your lack of profit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-06/short-sales-of-homes-surge-as-tax-break-to-expire-mortgages.html

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:05 | 3038969 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The single Gold Eagle that I glued to the outbard motor as a good luck charm went down with the ship. I filed a police report.....so there. :>)

<That damn coin was worth more than the entire rig.>

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:19 | 3039013 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I had a bad day too... my 18 ft fishing skiff hit a WW2 anti ship mine... turned the skiff into fiberglass threads and sent me flying a few hundred feet. I was eating a twinkie so was not harmed physically but can't remember where the incident occured...

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:50 | 3038923 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Spanish Covered Bonds = Mercado Español de Cédulas Hipotecarias = Está en Quiebra, those bonds are in default. Be careful asset managers if u have something in your portfolio.

 

Will be more aggresive damaging than subprime crisis, cos all european and US/CAD banks has European Covered Bonds with structures linked to Spanish Covered Bonds, Specially in French Pension Plans, German Landesbanks and Real Estate Funds + Netherlands Pension and Investment Funds + UK Fix Income Funds.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:55 | 3038935 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Let me know when they say that the unemployment has reached 100% and the machines in quatrant 9 and in Oceana have performed flawlessly. Until then I'm going back to sleep.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:56 | 3038938 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

What this says is, once again, retailers are shedding themselves of "seasonal" employees weeks before Christmas even gets here.

Further proof that all "Black Friday/Taupe Thursday/Cyber Monday" does is draw future demand forward.

Oh, and destroys profit margins, too.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 09:59 | 3038951 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

I'm actually shocked ZH is allowed to even exist anymore.  In this age of complete media manipulation, how can They allow a beacon of pure, unadulterated facts to exist?  Stay safe, Tylers.

 

And be careful of hotel maids.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:05 | 3038961 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Careful of your words. There have been many threads on here that have been complete nonsense - mostly by outside contributors.

I'll even take it a step further in some BS posts. I've certainly made a few bad calls but I'm one of the few that will make some calls with explanations or reasoning for my position.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:03 | 3038962 Coldsun
Coldsun's picture

Well the UN is trying to take control of the internet. So we'll see.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 11:24 | 3039260 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I'm not sure why you would be surprised...  Given the anonymity of the tylers, we have no idea to whom "they" are beholden.  I'll posit that asking the question is irrelevant...  so ignore the premise in your thesis and focus on fact finding.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:06 | 3038972 gould's fisker
gould&#039;s fisker's picture

They/we/whomever shouldn't force the labor dept (give me my check and i'll shut up) automotons to even go through the effort of making play charts and other special effects--the laborers should be allowed to simply tell us the number they prefer that particular day without concern of its relation to any other fact, figure or other noun.  Then the administration and all will be happy, and we can go forth hand in hand cheerily to the collapse. Banzai!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:12 | 3038989 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

I went to local car dealers on Saturday to buy a new pickup truck for my company. Although I ended up with what I originally wanted, a Ford F150 V-6, I did stop at the Chevy dealership to make comparisons. A car hauler had just unloaded several new Chevys, and I got to climb in several of them. All had exactly 31 miles on them! When I brought this fact to the sales manager, he was baffled. 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:16 | 3039005 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

He isn't the only one baffled !?

I don't get the punch line, Tide..

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:12 | 3038990 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

In its own way, ZH is just as predictable as the BLS and DOL in that the governmental agency reports are never honest enough, alone good enough to satisfy ZH.

At first it may seem as if ZH is merely an honest broker. But, the risk to its own credibility and reliability comes about because ZH sounds like a broken record.

It may not be essential any longer to impugn the BLS for its weekly upwards revisions, SAs and so on. Just note what they are and move on.

Does ZH know how many people are unemployed? If so, say so. If not, leave it alone.

Enough already.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:14 | 3038999 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Say what?  What the hell fun is that? 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:18 | 3039009 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Because this is fight club, and you ain't in it. ZH is here to open your eyes and your brain, you have to do the hard shoveling yourself. ZH ain't no entitlement program, pilgrim.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:33 | 3039050 gould's fisker
gould&#039;s fisker's picture

Yes, absolutely, anyone who thinks that the govies would make a series of reports come out the way they want is clearly irrational; and besides, if ZH is just playing the same predictable game as the laborites are then the clear lesson is that whatever is going across our screens should not make us think--we are here to absord and mold.  Bend over bitchez! Banzai!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 10:35 | 3039021 Democratic koolaid
Democratic koolaid's picture

Less people are claiming because less people meet the criteria! even if you accidently o.d. on the koolaid. They are not going to hand out pre-charged (GPC)  in New Jersey like during katrina, Christie tried thow with his photo-op.

Same with the official American Unemployment rate at roughly about 8% when its likely 16% or higher. There are many people that dont meet the criteria to get unemployment protection and thus are not counted into  le stat.

 

 

 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:06 | 3039401 edifice
edifice's picture

I think the issue is, the media report BLS U-3 figure, instead of U-6, which includes underemployed and is around 15%. Not that I agree with BLS numbers, mind you--I believe the real figure is somewhere around 20-25%.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 11:03 | 3039167 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Just waiting until January when we learn that Sandy is responsible for X million more Americans leaving the workforce forever.  Participation rate will go sub 60% and unemployment will remain at 8%.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 11:04 | 3039178 Hohum
Hohum's picture

This article is a knee jerk reaction.  NSA claims still down 30K year over year; seasonally adjusted down 13K year over year.  A rise in claims is typical for early December.  Just ignore the seasonal adjustments.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 11:05 | 3039187 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

All bullish,er bullshit.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 11:27 | 3039282 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

CNBC prefers the adjusted flavor

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