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Equities End At High-Of-Day; Oil/FX/Bonds Not So Much

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The technicals were in charge today as S&P futures coiled around VWAP early on, tested lows, then pushed to highs (coinciding with the 50DMA) - ending the day-session in the green. Low volume and low average trade size suggest this was not the pros filling their boots and the lack of enthusiasm among Treasury traders (despite a very late day ramp higher in yields), FX traders (EUR weakness dragged USD back to Unchanged on the week), and Oil (ending the day -2.9% on the week) didn't fill us with fear of a next leg higher (for now). Gold and stocks traded tick for tick most of the day as the precious metal toyed with $1700 again and HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) also recoupled with SPY (stocks) all day (shifting richer to its fair-value). Of course, AAPL is the name of the day with its death spiral, VWAP save, and VWAP reversion amid gigantic volume - but low average trade size (to close +1.5%). VIX ignored equity strength and closed +0.15 vols at 16.6% (very close to where it opened).

 

The Dow is the only US equity index in the green for the week with NASDAQ lagging still...

 

and the Russell continues its dump-and-pump coiling action...

 

and VIX remains bid relative to stocks - as it appears the main flow came in at month-end (red arrow)...

 

Correlations across risk assets broke down before the US open and it seemed that Gold and Stocks were the playmates of the day while Bonds, USD, and Oil trailed along the other direction...

 

ETFs (left - SPY vs combo VXX/HYG/TLT) in general tracked each other very closely in their oh-so-synthetic way - but cash risk markets (right) were not playing along with equity excitement...

 

Stocks and high yield credit recoupled after yesterday's falling out...

 

FX markets saw EURUSD give all its gains back and then some to drag the USD back to unchanged against a broad basket of the majors...

 

Copper dumped some of the week's gains but it was Oil that was the biggest loser with Gold and Silver making modest gains (though lower on the week - interesting given USD unch)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: AAPL's VWAP round-trip...notice that today's VWAP close was perfectly in line with yesterday's close around $540 (coincidence eh?)

 


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Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

Well we know how tomorrow will end....

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

With a steaming pile of bullshit on top.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

green, and it will live in infamy

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment French Frog
French Frog's picture

Do you?

If so, please do tell (seriously)!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

The sun will go down,  darkness wil envelope us,   some time later the clock will tick over into a new day

(that's my bold prediction anyway)

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Central Planners seem desperate to have all assets up in price (except oil) heading into the New Year.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

To what end?  The election is over.  Has the date for the next takedown been decided?

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

While 2013 Is Shaping Up To Be An Absolutely Hellacious, Things Are Getting Worse, Fast.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/while-2013-is-shaping-up-to-be-an-absolutely-hellacious-things-are-getting-worse-fast/

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

fucking mental day. What the fuck is all this big red EUR, DX green, SP green, supercharged bid DAX, Green bonds

Is it me or is this some crazy shit?

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Liquidity tightening, but in a non human trading environment you got supported ranges with slight meltups.

It is pitiful to watch, human momo traders are looking more and more pathetic everyday.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

It will be interesting to see how the algos react to the NFP number tomorrow.  It could be a pretty weak number.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Stocks are magic. I like that my wife's 401K is temporarily profiting from magic.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Gun sales still booming. SWHC just reported.  Raised guidance for 2013.  Announced stock buy back. Record Fiscal 2nd Qtr.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/smith-wesson-holding-corporation-reports-2...

Yes, I own shares of SWHC.  Guns and ammo are what people are buying.

Got Guns???

 

 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Frastric
Frastric's picture

AAPL will be punished tomorrow, whenever such levitation and volatility occur you know payback is coming shortly...

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment St1ngrayTheStag...
St1ngrayTheStagflationist's picture

The reason for AAPL's recent punishment is obvious. Cook has indicated he wants (under Californian/American pressure) to move production of Apple (back) to the U.S.

And somehow I feel that no 'decadent' John Smith will fold those funny iPhones together for the same wage as Lee Wu.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

the equity "market" gets more broken every day seemingly... like an unbalanced washing machine in spin cycle right before it breaks

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 22:52 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

fuel and drink prices are in a total free fall. it really is quite amazing to see. i've been talking about being in the middle of an energy revolution for years now...and it appears to finally be happening. "the election is over and the Luddites lost. Again." the...ahem..."liquidity potential" when land prices continue to power higher while energy prices collapse should be lost on ... well, let's hope everyone. obviously "all eyes on ObamaCare"...this thing is PRICEY...but with interest rates this low "the Cadillac option" is ON THE TABLE. I'd also be long a big increase in the minimum wage...and quite possibly maybe even jobs in general! i would predict the United States will become a net oil exporter quite possibly as soon as six months from now depending on how bad worthless Detroit wants to fight for the American people's hard earned pennies...at least the ones we are still allowed to keep. a car that can get a thousand miles to a gallon? "I'm sorry, what's the problem again?" and no, i don't want it to cost more than $4,000 US new. and yes i do want it with a million mile warranty.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 00:54 | Link to Comment kwtneo
kwtneo's picture

the pump and dump isn't random - it's tied to the fed buybacks this week....

http://market-thots.blogspot.com/2012/12/its-11am-new-york-time-do-you-k...

 

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