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Gallup Finds Unemployment Rate Soars Follwing Presidential Election

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two months ago, there were various prominent pundits who were furiously mocked and ridiculed by those whose job in the media it is to mock and ridicule, for suggesting what most know: that economic data is widely nuanced, massaged, adjusted, goalseeked and outright manipulated by various political interests. That someone would feign outrage by this allegation is laughable at best (and sorry, the "too many people were involved to keep it a secret" excuse is now absolute rubbish following the confirmation of Liborgate, yet another conspiracy theory until it became a conspiracy fact), yet all the "serious" outlets of insight did just that. Now that the election is over, for one reason or another "unnuanced" normalcy is about to strike back with a vengeance, as soon as tomorrow with the official release of November jobs data. And if the just released Gallup unemployment data is any indication, the amount of outright goalseeking by the fine folks at the BLS was nothing short of startling. Because after recording an adjusted unemployment rate of 7.4% in October, the November unemployment rate, based on a random sample of 29,308 adults, soared by a whopping 0.9% in one month to 8.3%, the most since the Great financial crisis itself! And furthermore, at 8.3% the unemployment rate is now the highest since May. Is it time yet for all those sellsiders to admit they were wrong weeks after producing beautiful pitchbooks of how 2013 will be "different this time" and the economy will soar? Or should we wait a few weeks first?

The unemployemnt rate per Gallup:

Gallup's take:

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with approximately 30,000 Americans throughout the month -- 67.2% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. Last year, the government adjusted the November rate upward by 0.5 percentage points.

 

It is unclear what caused the increase in the unemployment rate in November, although some experts speculate that it was caused by jobs lost as a result of superstorm Sandy. It is also possible that lackluster holiday hiring is to blame.

 

Although the increase in the unadjusted rate in November is a sharp contrast to the 0.9-point decline seen in October, November's 7.8% rate is still tied for the second-best unadjusted unemployment monthly reading of 2012. However, on an adjusted basis, November's rate is the highest reading in six months. Looking at year-to-year comparisons, seasonally adjusted unemployment is down from 8.9% in November 2011.

As for U-6 (underemployment)...

Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.

 

Gallup's U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.

Finally, as so often happens in the New Normal, take anything you believe and flip it. Which is why if objective reality is precedent, expect the BLS to announce yet another improvement in the unemployment rate, increasingly more often notices of major layoffs of blue chip companies notwithstanding.

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Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:46 | 3039514 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sandy is the new Bush.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:47 | 3039515 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Steer clear of that sandy bush.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:49 | 3039525 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Also that organ grinders monkey.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:59 | 3039559 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

So, we went from a natural disaster to a national disaster.

Cue the Mayans!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:05 | 3039580 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

Detroit auto workers are busy.

They are producing cars faster than folks can buy them.

All good...

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:13 | 3039597 Vegamma
Vegamma's picture

Recovery Winter?

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 14:18 | 3039787 economics9698
economics9698's picture

The BLS has a few more SA in them.  It’s all paper.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:25 | 3039641 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Channel stuffing isn't just for autos.........    plenty of games being played to make numbers look better than they are.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:56 | 3039702 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

They should have parked all of that channel stuffed inventory on the Jersey shore for Sandy to destroy. Someone was sleeping at the wheel.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:51 | 3039535 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Sage advice.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:52 | 3039540 adr
adr's picture

Eeewww, all I picture is Banzai's Spearmint Rhino Hillary photo. Damn that guy and my photographic memory.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:49 | 3039519 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Boehner, McConnell, Cantor, etc. ... you get the idea. There is never a self admission amongst this crew. Never.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:13 | 3039600 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Obama will blame on the Cliff, evil republitards

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:23 | 3039633 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

That's it! The Fiscal Clavin. The one that has no fucking clue what it's talking about, but refuses to STFU.

 

(Someone out there remembers Cheers, I hope)

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:57 | 3039706 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Obama is similar to your wife, never wrong or responsible for anything.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:52 | 3040641 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

One more nail in the US economy coffin.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:50 | 3039527 realtick
realtick's picture

What's really wild is how closely correlated the rate of governement borrowing is to the UNRATE:

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/11/higher-unemploy...

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:50 | 3039529 adr
adr's picture

It is unclear what cause the uptick in november.

Ahh ha ha hah haaaaah, good one Gallup.

End of the six month improvement was a great line as well.

I'm sure there must be one smart person at Gallup that can figure out the unemployment rate never actually dropped during the campaign season, just an increase in data manipulation.

I think anyone that believes data from the BLS or reports it as fact should be added to the guillotine line.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:07 | 3039578 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Wanna know what caused the uptick in unemployment.  After the election, small businesses lost all hope that Obamacare would be repealed. 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:13 | 3039598 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

They lost hope...PERIOD

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:42 | 3039680 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Hope.. Change you can believe it... Progress...

And now Forward!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:59 | 3039714 Freddie
Freddie's picture

True.  A lot of small businesses and bigger businesses will probably close after Christmas.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:30 | 3039652 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Or is it just the inevitable outcome of the let's-see-how-long-we-can-hold-this-beachball-underwater effect ... or a combination of those and other nefarious tricks designed to paint as much make-up as possible on that ugly pig called "Reality"?

I'm going with combination myself.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:50 | 3039533 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

The world's stock markets enjoy high unemployment.  It means high productivity and high profits. BTFD.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:52 | 3039538 Jason T
Jason T's picture

just in time for a huge tax hike.

 

I quit bitch!  working in the gulch.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:52 | 3039539 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

YOU didn't make that unemployment level jump!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:18 | 3039616 Blazing Saddles
Blazing Saddles's picture

Somebody else made that happen

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:54 | 3039544 semperfi
semperfi's picture

ShadowStats  ~23%

Tyler, how about the ZH-stats for all such things: unemployement, inflation, GDP, debts, etc...  ???

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:54 | 3039546 Buzzworthy
Buzzworthy's picture

And even 8.3% is too low.  For example, an estimated 48.4% of male black americans are unemployed.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:27 | 3039646 inevitablecollapse
inevitablecollapse's picture

well, obviously we need some more legislation in the vein of affirmative action implemented, and NOW.  this is completely unacceptable...or it could be that # (which i didn't verify) is perfectly happy receiving their monthly disbursement from uncle sam, with your name, my name and the names of millions of other working americans taking up the 'from' line

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 17:51 | 3040636 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Reparations bitchez.  Reparations.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:39 | 3039670 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Unemployed indicates a willingness to find work when none exists. A good portion of them CHOOSE to loaf the mule all day on welfare, drink fo'tees and cry the blues about how whitey is holding them down. That doesn't really qualify as unemployed.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 14:07 | 3039738 Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

And your scientific analysis comes from where?

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:57 | 3039550 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

A Hawaiian vacation will be needed to sort things out in a meaningful way...

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:44 | 3039684 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Yeah, that election campaigning on our dime - while he was supposed to be doing the work that we elected him for - is grueling. Man needs a break after that and nothing spells break like a multimillion dollar Hawaiian vacation at the expense of the taxpayer. I think his round trip flight alone is well over a million. Then he will return next year after the fiscal cliff drop  just in time to throw the Republicans under the bus for the extra $300-1000 that will come out of the middle class' monthly paychecks... and of course the MSM will shill for him and blame those evil republicans. What a joke this nation and its people have become.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:58 | 3039555 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Where have all the investigations gone?  "MF" Corzine, Fast and furious, Benghazigate, College application recordgate...  Was Stalin part black?

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:02 | 3039563 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

On the same stack with the CFTC silver "investigation".

Four years running... 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:05 | 3039579 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Nah, they shredded that one already.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:03 | 3039570 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Once the Selection ended, DC settled into its three-month party routine (well, other than the dramatic facade they call "The Cliff!").

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 14:32 | 3039861 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

No, but I am sure Spielberg's Lincoln is.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 12:59 | 3039558 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Can't wait for all of the holiday sales associates to be released from their jobs at the end of December.  Participation rate will go sub 60%.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 14:42 | 3039561 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Oh, but it´s all OK.  The Americans DID vote for Obama!  So they will get what they wanted.

Cheers!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:01 | 3039562 TroyPDX
TroyPDX's picture

It's getting harder and harder to distinguish the 'real' news from The Onion News satire. 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:04 | 3039575 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

That's because you've applied the satire label to the wrong side of the equation.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:02 | 3039564 Karlus
Karlus's picture

I wonder what Jack Welch would say about this....oh thats right, he is racis

 

/sarc

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:02 | 3039567 clagr
clagr's picture

I am shocked. Totally suprising-------------------NOT!!!

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:03 | 3039573 pods
pods's picture

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

 

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:04 | 3039576 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Just wait until after the holidays and all the hopeful retailers stare at their receipt tapes in total dismay. The reality will be felt from Cali to Maine and the jobs of 100's of thousand seasonal workers will be terminated. There is no can left to kick, we are entering the final countdown... Thanks Ben, Timmay and all of our incompetent leaders in the Government for destroying any chance America had just to protect your casinos and cartel members.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 14:26 | 3039831 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

It won't be reported.

Fake numbers will be rolled out to show retailers had a successful season.  Same as the unemployment numbers and most of the statistics and charts that they roll out.

Question:  If we know they are cheating with some of the stats, why believe they are honest with other numbers they issue?

These people have an agenda and they are confident in their ability to BS the public 100% of the time.

And btw, the housing market is rebounding, taking the recovery to new levels.

Thu, 12/06/2012 - 13:10 | 3039591 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Unemployment hasn't changed much.  The reporting is what's changing.

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