Chart Of The Day: Jobs "Additions" By Age Group Reveals The Scariest Picture

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the GETCO algos care only about one thing: the headline NFP number derived by the establishment survey, the reality is that in November this number was strictly a divination of seasonal adjustments (which resulted in the typical for November 1.2 million "gain" in jobs), as well as who knows what other Sandy-related adjustments which the BLS has not broken down, the reality is that a more granular dig through the jobs data reveals a far uglier picture, especially for those in the prime working demographic between 25-54. This has been a sensitive issue for the pundits as ever since the arrival of the Obama administration, all the job gains have gone in the 55 and older job category as we now see age outsourcing, while jobs in the 55 and lower age group have imploded. Sure enough, the November data, when seen through the prism of the Household Survey's age distribution, is frankly horrendous.

First, what that granular data shows is that instead of a 146K gain in November, there was actually a drop of 114K jobs when broken down by worker "vintage." But where it gets simply stupid, is that of the 4 age group buckets (16-19, 20-24, 25-54, and 55-69), the biggest gainer continued to be America geriatric work force, which added 177 jobs. As for that key segment of the workforce, the 25-54? Jobs here declined by a whopping 359K in November. And this is good news?

 

And the really scary charts: cumulative jobs gained or lost in the 55 and under, versus 55 and over age groups. In case it is confusing, since Obama became president, 4 million jobs have been added in the 55-69 age group. Everyone else? Down 3 million!

The same as above but broken by all four age cohorts:

Since Obama became president, over 2.5 million jobs in the 25-54 age group have been lost.

Welcome to the Recovery.

Source: BLS

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Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:17 | 3042649 aston
aston's picture

I have some problems (after visiting the link provided) to understand the Nov number (359) for the 25-54 age group. Where to you get that. Any math ? someone can help ?

i have age group 25-54 +94 while over 54 +31

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:42 | 3042752 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

177 + 62 + 6 - 359 = 146 ...

The Tylers don't do the arithmetic, they simply report it.

87.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:17 | 3042652 Prison Justice
Prison Justice's picture

You didn't hear?  Walmart has been hiring new greeters en masse.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:20 | 3042672 granolageek
granolageek's picture

This meme is one of ZH's best.

 

For instance, that chart shows that the people in the 16 year age range  of 54-69 got a hair more than 3 times as many jobs as people in the 5 year age range of 20-24. If you financial geniuses divide 16 by 5, what number do you get?

 

Thanks ZH for the chuckles on a slow day at work.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:23 | 3042689 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

And you can what? Infer something about the distribution of actual ages from the widths of the age ranges?!

Please return to STAT 101.

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:37 | 3042767 granolageek
granolageek's picture

I happen to know out of band  that it's roughly the same. 54-69 is the leading edge of the boomers, and there are a sh*tload of us. Demographic cliff and all that.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:45 | 3042807 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It's hard to miss you guys...what with the billions in Medicare Part D deficits you shovel down your corpulent triple-chinned throats.

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:32 | 3042745 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Hey dumbass. What about the even larger group losing jobs? your ability to read charts is in serious doubt. 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:39 | 3042782 granolageek
granolageek's picture

Different chart, dumbass.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:31 | 3042952 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

No, I can read just fine. It's your interpretation of the information that is incredibly stupid. 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:20 | 3042673 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

If the older group doesnt work who is going to pay for their kids I gadget and data service?

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:21 | 3042678 babylon15
babylon15's picture

Tyler, can you also put up a graph of jobs created by sector?  All the jobs created are part time jobs in areas like fast food chains.  These 55-69 year olds are not getting jobs in high skill areas that require degrees.  They are taking jobs at fast food chains.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:25 | 3042686 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Bahgdad Bob just showed up on my screen proclaiming, "there is no unemployment!  We have crushed the Great Unemployment and sent it fleeing under the greatness of our superior economicness!  Krugman Akbar, Krugman Akbar!!"

 

 

Fucking. Empire. of Lies...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:29 | 3042731 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Bahgdad Bob?

Does he work for CNBC or Bloomberg?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:54 | 3042830 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Bets handle on ZH Clint.  Every time I see one of your posts I get a chuckle.  Well done mate for giving out smiles.

:-)

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:24 | 3042694 Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

The younger cohort gets left behind again I see, no surprise there really.  In an environment where the economy were doing poorly and unemployment were high one could understand how people would stay in the workforce longer, especially after taking a net loss on their wealth leading up to retirement.  Unfortunately, propaganda says otherwise about the economy.... unemployment is falling and we haven't even entered a new recessions (according to those whom know better than we), let alone having ever left the "great recession".  So what is it than?  Younger people increasingly being left behind in the workforce and by the time they are able to fill positions by their retiring counterparts, their skills have deteriorated significantly from years of pushing shitty food through a drive through window or swiping credit cards in a checkout lane at many of our fine American retailers?  By then, then worker to retire ratio will sit around, 2:1?  Add to that we'll mostly likely be somewhere around $1.5 trillion in student debt accumulated.  Not to mention a national debt clearly over $20 trillion (lets just keep those interest rates down a bit longer until its someone elses problem) in a country who's infrastructure that has drastically degraded from years of neglect.  (I could go on but its all too depressing). Sounds to me like the boomers said we're taking it all... We'll have it all, and once we're retired, you can keep paying for us... Whoever came up with the term ageism had it all wrong, this is obviously generational warfare.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:36 | 3042761 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

It's a tactic as old as time-divide and conquer.  Don't fall for their generational warfare meme.  We don't have the luxury of quarrelling amongst ourselves.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:34 | 3042695 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Even the idea of retirement will be a memory of an abberation ,enjoyed by a very few for a

short period in history.

Work till you drop is the  reality today  for most ,as it always was.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 13:55 | 3043249 Seer
Seer's picture

Been saying this for years.

I've dropped the very notion from my mind.  Aim low, it's easier to "succeed" :-)

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:25 | 3042703 shutterman
shutterman's picture

sadly, I have gotten used to working part time. How in the hell did I manage to get up 5 days a week for all those years?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:26 | 3042705 UnRealized Reality
UnRealized Reality's picture

Leave it to our great leaders again. If they didn't destroy interest rates seniors wouldn't have to work. The one thing that keeps seniors out of work is interest on their nest egg.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 14:02 | 3043282 Seer
Seer's picture

What a brilliant idea!  We can ALL stop working and live on "interest!"

Don't you get it?  Don't you get that "interest" and growth are both tied to borrowing from the future?

Yup, cash in and then sit on it.  Get money from that future growth and horde it!  I cashed in on the housing bubble; not big, but what I got wasn't meant to sit on- I'm applying it toward producing food: I think that I owe the future generations something meaningful; call it my insurance (hedge) against them taking me out back and shooting me.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:27 | 3042711 aston
aston's picture

IS IT ACCURATE ?

IWent to the BLS SITE (LINK PROVIDED BELOW THE ARTICLE)  and i still don`t get the math to have the Zero hedge numberS.

Could explain ? How do you get this STRANGE result.

MINE ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT. HOW TO GET THAT ?

HELP PLEASE

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:33 | 3042747 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

An easy place to pull the data is the St Louis Fed: aged 16-19 (source), aged 20-24 (source), aged 25-54 (source), aged 55 and over (source)

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:13 | 3042903 ekm
ekm's picture

Brilliant

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:12 | 3043925 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Yeah - The Fed.  They would never lie.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:41 | 3042989 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Further analysis is always welcome.  You got different results?  Throw 'em up here.  Let's compare.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:28 | 3042718 SanOvaBeach
SanOvaBeach's picture

I got mine!  Have a nice day!  ps. there is a sale on Alpo at Walmart.............

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:28 | 3042719 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

The locusts protect their own...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:40 | 3042785 Cortez
Cortez's picture

Lazy workers get paid the same as hard workers.  At one point in time, hard workers got raises and bonuses.  Now everyone gets the "lean times" bs from employers.  The elderly workers didn't get the text since they are still complaining about how that cell phone is so darn complicated.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:27 | 3042944 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Shows how fucking dumb you are, This oldster wrote about 1/2 of all the software that handles the cell phone network call switching - globally.  What have you accomplished lately, you fucking whiner, besides diddling yourself whilst running your facebook app? 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 14:11 | 3043323 Seer
Seer's picture

While clearly superior to whining and diddling and facebooking, I'm still not seeing this as being of long-term value.

This oldster is clearing land and making it produce food.  I've got the aches and scars to back it up.

Thomas Jefferson wanted to be remembered most for being a farmer.  I'd like to do the same.

Powering people rather than gadgets.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:39 | 3042973 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:41 | 3042791 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

We need to redefine employment so we can be more honest in these reports.  Playing Xbox all day may be low paying, but I think it should be counted as a job.  I tried to put this in Bernanke's suggestion box.  But, he clenched up. 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:57 | 3042841 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Bullish for Microsoft and Activision, and Duracell and Eveready (those wireless controllers eat batteries, let me tell you).

The hi-def. flat screen at 1080p is the bomb, and for the full experience you'll need a good recliner.

Off to play Mass Effect 3 multiplayer (oh, bullish for Cumcast too).

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 14:13 | 3043340 Seer
Seer's picture

Until credit completely dries up...

But... how fitting of an end is it? to end it all with an entertainment bubble collapse?  It's ALL been smoke and mirrors, it's ALL been virtual.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:43 | 3042797 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

Don't worry, The powers that be have employment ready for the young folks. (See: Carrier off the coast of Syria\WMD's in Syria) Hint: False flag soon, to get you flag waving, and killing the enemy!

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:48 | 3042811 realtick
realtick's picture

The Debt Ceiling - Sealing Our Fate To Become Japan http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-debt-ceilin...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:52 | 3042823 Cortez
Cortez's picture

I think those that grew up in middle class america in the 70s 80s and 90s had everything they wanted and needed.  Now as adults they aren't living at the same standards as they were accostomed to.  But the realization is this: Their happiness didn't decline because they had less money and things. 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 13:03 | 3043048 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Less money, less things for things like....food, gas, mortgage money, health insurance money...   

This country is not getting cheaper to live in.

Do the math:  Cost people $60K a year, minimum to live a middle class life in an urban or suburban area as an independent over 25 year old adult ....  

-Live to 85, that's about $3.6 million you'll need, after tax or almost $5 million pretax.

-Work for 40 years, making the average of $50K/yr, you make $2 million --- that leaves you $3 million short to fund a long life!

Even if you make $100K a year, you're still a million short.

If you only live to 70, you're still short.  

And all this BEFORE factoring inflation, which we all know is going to increase much more than wages.

 

Not as easy as saying Happiness doesn't decline because of not being able to afford less things.  

Most people I know worry a lot these days and should.  

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 14:51 | 3043481 Seer
Seer's picture

Good analysis.  It clearly points out how unsustainable it all is.  And I'll wager that it's FAR more unsustainable higher up: the higher they are the farther they'll fall.

If it cheers anyone up, roughly 2/3 of the world's population lives on $3/day or less. (yeah, it's all relative, just trying to do what I can to make it not so dour)

I think it more wise to seek to stabilize to a lower level than to try and claw upwards against all those who control most of everything and are doing everything they can to hold on to their elevated positions: the majority of these folks won't be successful.

Play your future as a glider pilot.  We're ALL returning to earth.  Attempts to escape will be futile; it'll mean hitting the boosters, draining the fuel, and then finding that gravity still exists AND your vehicle/plan doesn't do "glide."  Oh!  And there are NO parachutes!

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:40 | 3043807 Blankenstein
Blankenstein's picture

This is why almost all housing is overpriced.  The NAR needs to be brought up on racketeering charges.  

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 18:35 | 3044150 Seer
Seer's picture

Or perhaps the currencies are WAY depreciated?

One thing to purchase/possess a home, another thing to be able to maintain it.  I'm figuring that the maintenance angle is going to become a bigger and bigger burden/load as all key things like food and energy ramp up in cost.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:55 | 3042838 paulbain
paulbain's picture

 

 

 

Actually, Tyler Durden, this news article is much more interesting, at least to me:

A study by the Center for Immigration Studies concludes two-thirds of the net increase in employment since President Obama took office has gone to immigrants and illegal aliens. The analysis calls into question the wisdom of bringing in more than one million new legal immigrants each year.

See more here:

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/news/november-1-2012/study-two-thirds...

-- Paul D. Bain

PaulBain@PObox.com

 

 

 

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 20:51 | 3044506 Seer
Seer's picture

Well, if one were an xenophobic dick I suppose that it would be more "interesting."

Listen you fucking losers, it's fucking going down, doesn't fucking matter who is getting what "jobs," "jobs" that are really about working FOR TPTB.

So, if the article is more interesting to YOU then maybe should take it and run off into a corner somewhere, and stop trying to hijack this thread.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:59 | 3042849 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It is strange that the older I get the farther I can jog. I'm up over 15 miles at one time now. When I was younger my knees used to act up so much just going for an hour that I wasn't able to run for 10 years. It has to be GMO or hormones in the beef. That is why I think the NWO got it wrong to pick the new generation for the world takeover. The old fucks are going to be real M'Fers to try and topple.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:53 | 3043029 edifice
edifice's picture

Oh, I don't know... Everyone (old and young) are obese... 2/3 of us, anyway... It won't be that hard to topple this country.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 20:54 | 3044511 Seer
Seer's picture

This is what the livestock industry does, fatten 'em up and then slaughter...  I'm figuring that TPTB are working with the space aliens to raise their food supply on their next stop-over...  Sigh, I won't be food, which means I'll be slave material.  Heads you lose.  Tails you lose.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:05 | 3042867 QuantumCat
QuantumCat's picture

Baby Boomers doing what Baby Boomers do best...  spreading everyone elses wealth around and taking care of themselves.  I can only hope they live long enough to see the consequences of their actions, not that they would collectively care.   

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:29 | 3042958 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Baby boomers spreading THEIR OWN FUCKING wealth around.  Sorry the administration hasn't gotten around to redistributing enough of our wealth to you yet.  Sucks to be a parasite, doesn't it?

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