Gold ‘Storm’ - Could Rise Sharply Next Week On Fed Say UBS And Nomura

Tyler Durden's picture

Form GoldCore Gold Bullion

Gold ‘Storm’ - Could Rise Sharply Next Week On Fed Say UBS And Nomura

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,697.00, EUR 1,312.55, and GBP 1,058.71 per ounce. 
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,693.00, EUR 1,295.14, and GBP 1,050.77 per ounce.

Silver is trading at $32.89/oz, €25.54/oz and £20.62/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,599.50/oz, palladium at $684.00/oz and rhodium at $1,045/oz.

Gold rose $4.40 or 0.26% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,698.00/oz. Silver surged to a high of $33.259 and finished with a gain of 0.4%.

Gold $/oz, 5 Days – (Bloomberg)

Gold crept higher in Asia overnight prior to selling, then saw initial gains lost. Gold and silver are headed for their second week of declines.

For the week gold is down 1% and silver is down 1.4% in dollar and sterling terms but the losses in euros and Swiss francs are more muted (euro gold and silver is down 0.5% and 0.9% respectively) due to weakness in the euro and Swiss franc.

XAU/GBP, 5 Days – (Bloomberg)

As expected the ECB kept rates on hold at 0.75% yesterday. The ECB confirmed what more realistic commentators have been warning - that the eurozone economy would contract further in 2013. This is leading to hopes for rate cuts by debtors and concerns of currency debasement by creditors.

The US non-farm payrolls data is released at 1330 GMT and this will be critical ahead of the US Fed’s gathering next week. Yesterday’s US unemployment rate at 7.9% shows that jobless claims have fallen back to a pre-Hurricane Sandy range.

UBS and Nomura have suggested that gold could rise next week as the Federal Reserve may announce further easing at the FOMC meeting – on Tuesday (11/12/12) and Wednesday (12/12/12).

Nomura said it is worth considering whether the FOMC will announce further easing to replace so called ‘Operation Twist’. The research house noted that gold remains at the same level as during the October meeting, which suggests gold has not yet priced in any move by the FOMC – creating an opportunity for gold bullion buyers. 

Regardless of whether the FOMC actually eases at this point – Nomura thinks there is a non-negligible probability – gold is likely to rise. Therefore, Nomura expects gold to rise and prices in this probability as the December meeting approaches, just as gold rose when the September meeting was approaching.

XAU/EUR, 5 Days – (Bloomberg)

In a daily note entitled ‘Gold: Calm Before A Storm?’, UBS said today that expectation of additional quantitative easing next week by the Federal Reserve is not priced into the gold market, so any aggressive move by the Fed would prompt a “sizeable response.”

Index rebalancing will also cause gold to be bought, UBS said in its daily precious metals report today.

The rebalancing action this year should be interesting according to UBS as gold is to “be bought this time around as opposed to being sold in previous years”.

The expected conclusion of the ongoing US fiscal cliff negotiations should also elicit a “considerable” reaction from the gold market. 

“The UBS house view, which is in line with consensus, is that a deal will likely be reached in Washington by year-end. Much of gold’s response will depend on the details, and the price move could be quite powerful.”

Gold inches up; headed for 2nd week of losses - Reuters

Buy gold ahead of FOMC meeting – Nomura - etnet

MF Global to pay initial 15 cents per dollar to creditors – The Business Times

Goldman Sachs predicts commodity ‘renaissance’ – Market Watch


MORGAN STANLEY: Here Are 4 Reasons Why Gold Is Our Favorite Commodity For 2013 – Business Insider

On Gold; Morgan Stanley Is Buying What Goldman Is Selling – Zero Hedge

Will the Price of Gold Peak Next Year? - Bloomberg

Japan’s Ill-Fated Experiment With Money Doctoring - Bloomberg

Preparing For Economic Headwinds: Bill Gross's Likes Oil and Gold – Seeking Alpha

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

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GetZeeGold's picture



Shhh....don't tell Goldman Sachs.

johnQpublic's picture

i would like to know how exactly the fed intends to add more 'easing' than it has...

whats more than infinite or to eternity?

EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Refering to paper as Gold is really stupid.

And propagandistic.

The GLD has no Gold, and only serves to manipulate and tether the price of the metal.

You fucking Moron

francis_sawyer's picture

Infinity & Beyond! [the short paper gold contracts... aka 'Other assets' on the Fed balance sheet]...

somecallmetimmah's picture

"The GLD has no Gold, and only serves to manipulate and tether the price of the metal."

It does for 9 out of 10 fucking morons...

James_Cole's picture

The morons are the people who whine about the GLD.

Badabing's picture

8:30 am smack down the only way to stop TPTB is to short @8:00am in mass

GetZeeGold's picture



Before FOFOA and FOA.......there was ANOTHER!


RIP stuck the landing. That's a 10 in anyone's book.

HellFish's picture

Interesting post, details?

GetZeeGold's picture



I present to you a mystery.....a qwest if you will.


Travel to Libby Montana. Inquire as to where the former chief scientist to Lockheed Martin resides. He is not ANOTHER....but he holds something very valuable of his. It's a key of sorts. It's there you will find your answers.


If you're an aspiring cub reporter from Rolling Stone or the WSJ stay away.....unless you want to win a Pulitzer Prise.


You'll need to sources inform me the light is growing dim.


SilverRhino's picture

So WTF is THAT all about? 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Not quite yet. Goldman's got to shake out the last of the weak hands so that they may buy all available (physical) supply at the lowest price possible.

<You'll have to pry my Gold from my cold dead hands.>

Update: That 8:40 am plunge (does the time sound familar?) down to $1,686 just might have done the job.

goldfish1's picture

Goldman Sachs is manipulating the gold price down ready to reverse it later says Jim Sinclair By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money -- Posted Friday, 7 December 2012 |

Orly's picture

The farther the Euro falls against the dollar, the lower the price of gold.

Think about it.


Dr. Engali's picture

Good for us stackers.

Orly's picture

Okay, man.  As long as you know you're in for some serious pain.



Ouch!  That hadda hurt!

tocointhephrase's picture

Just wondering how you found yourself here?

francis_sawyer's picture

As soon as I can afford a salvage operation, I'm sure I'll find that all the gold lost in the boating accident is still the same number of ounces...


Speaking of shipwrecks...

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

When/if the Euro becomes a memory and the Yen becomes a memory the dollar will be under attack by the same forces. What then?

China will back the Yuan with PMs and what happens to MMT? Out the window with the bath water.

"When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover. Because ever since the great tulipmania in 1637, speculation has always been covered by a new paradigm. There was never a paradigm so new and so wonderful as the one that covered John Law and the South Sea Bubble — until the day of disaster." John K Galbraith

Spitzer's picture

You are wrong on your order. the ecb is the hardest of the bunch. they have always had the highest interest rate regardless of how much rioting is going on in greece.  


Bay of Pigs's picture


As I recall, you said to "short the Euro @1.25 with a target of 1.20". Then a few days ago you said the Euro would "rise to 1.36". Now you're flip flopping again?

And btw, I'm not a big fan of GoldCore's analysis either, but trolling the gold threads acting like an idiot won't impress anyone here. 

Orly's picture

It's not a flip-flop.  I suggested to Bruce that it could go there, being that everyone and their brother thinks it is going to $1.19.  But it could go to $1.36 because the Europeans are playing games with the currency that makes the manipulations in gold look like child's play.  The Euro hasn't been at $1.25 since September so it must not have been the other day- but I see your point.  Crazy machinations make for crazy calls sometimes.

Either way, I am not being a troll and I have no one to impress.  When someone is on a 4X thread, I don't bash them.  I take what they say and think about the possibilities.  On goldbug threads, it is just the opposite.  It is one giant club and I ain't in it; meaning that no one here wants to listen to anything converse to their set-in-stone opinion and I don't really understand why.

All you seem to want is a reinforcement dialogue and it bothers you a great deal when someone has a different opinion.  I am sure I am not the only one; just the only one who says so.  No one wants to get called names all the time but it just so happens that I have thick skin.  But it is unfortunate because a lot of people with a lot of great ideas here don't say anything at all because it is not worth listening to all the junk that gets hurled at them all the time.  I can't say that I blame them, actually.

Besides, if one person listens to what I say and we have a decent conversation about it, then it would be worth all the name-calling and viciousness to endure.  That doesn't happen though.  If I am disrupting the fantastic paradigm, then I must be an economic moronic trolling idiot asshole.  Truth is, I work for CIA.

I've heard it often enough.  Maybe I'm starting to believe it myself?


Bay of Pigs's picture

Well, how about debating the facts on a 12 year Golden Bull market then? (soon to be 13).

Different opinions are fine as long as they are valid, but I don't see any good arguments as to why gold is a bad investment (silver either). You want reasons to own gold? How about currency debasement, ZIRP, high unemployment, derivatives, leverage, massive deficits, huge debt levels, COMEX, LBMA and Wall St corruption, lack of regulators enforcing exisiting law, etc....and I could go on and on.

Sorry Orly, but your opinion doesn't change the facts. If people can't save because of ZIRP and currency debasement, they have to invest in something that holds value, and gold fits that bill. So bashing gold is not only wrong, it's stupid.


Orly's picture

It's also an easy-money, risk-on trade.  That's all I'm saying.  When the easy money is taken away (perhaps as soon as next Tuesday...), then the gold price will suffer.  I wouldn't get all caught up in the "apocalypse" of it all.

Bay of Pigs's picture

Take away? New QE is set to start and ZIRP is here to stay until 2015. 

What are you talking about?

Orly's picture

Yay!  We get to talk!  That's nice, actually.  :D

What I am talking about is that it is possible that Dr. Bernanke will not buy up MBS from the major banks or less of it than anticipated.  It is also possible, in fact likely, that the announcement of QE will have been priced into the market already.  Remember, that's what happened with QE4 or whatever it was last time as the half-life on that QE as it regards equities was like fifteen minutes.

It could be that the Fed may come in and buy other paper besides MBS from the banks, mainly because the giant mortgage originators, Wells and JPM, have already said that even if 10-year rates go lower, they are not going to pass the savings on to the customer.  They said that they would eat the increased margin for themselves because a 3.48% mortgage should be good enough for anyone, even though they're getting the money basically for free.  The Fed has to know this and adding more possible debt to the equation when the beneficiaries of said policy have stated that it won't do J6P any good at all is probably not a policy they would want to pursue.  They'll probably do something really unconventional and more radical.  I haven't a clue as to what.

This approach would be a disappointment to the equity markets and would have a negative impact on the "wealth effect" that the Fed is so keen to enable, having more people then pull out of stocks and go into bonds.  Maybe they move into gold, who knows.  What they should realise is that a negative impact on stocks and a positive impact on bond yields would bring down the Euro and Pound (both rallying like mad this week for some unknown reason, as are German bunds...jus' sayin'...), which would then adversely impact the price of gold, as it relates to the pricing mechanism of the DXY.

With the gold price tumbling, it would beget more selling from the weak hands and a vicious cycle would ensue in that market.  Caution would be in order here.


Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Orly you were telling Chump you had 1.24 in your crosshairs and expected it to go to 1.20.  Chump told you it would go to 1.10 and you said something like, "Yay!"

Then after the euro hightailed it the other way you want it at 1.35?  You got whipsawed on your trade.

I know what it is like to think one thing and then watch it go another way, but I just look for times to buy silver bullion, you trade FX.  When my price doesn't hit I sit back and when it does I buy.  WHen you are wrong your leverage crushes you.

Orly, I am sorry, but I don't know how you are still solvent after watching your trades get monkey hammered over the years.

And on gold, you have no understanding of the fundamentals of the market.  You have no understanding of any market that relates to gold, as evidence in the fact that you think Bernanke will devalue the dollar 30% and that the dollar will still be viable as the reserve. 

Orly's picture

Yes, yes, I remember.  He said to $1.10 (no way...) and, "I said I'm going to be rich!  Making that Chump change, at least for a little while."  Ha! This was a much longer-term outlook, though, as we were talking about the SPX retreating to 880.

As to getting monkey-hammered, it is really all about money management, as it is everything else.  Position trading, obviously, doesn't work in these markets anyway, when Draghi can come out and say, "Anything it takes..." and the Euro rallies 300-pips.  Basically daily scalping is all you can do nowadays.

And I didn't say I think Dr. Bernanke was going to devalue the currency another thirty percent!  Man, alive!  What I said was that the value of the dollar is basically seven cents of what it was in 1913 but this was done on purpose.  Being that our Debt/GDP ratio is still "only" about 100%, it wouldn't kill us if we had to knock two more cents off that figure.  That must be where you're getting the 30% figure.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes that is my figure.  And my math is correct.  2 cents off of 7 is 30%.  You are assuming that the dollar can drop 30% and that the dollar would still be a viable currency on an international basis.  If the dollar depreciates by that amount since oil has an inverse relationship to the dollar we would get a perminent spike in gas prices.  This would crush GDP.  Then our GDP/Debt ratio would be much higher.  This would wreck havoc on the faith and credit of the UST market.

Now our bonds are not selling without more QE, the same QE that pushed the value of the dollar down to begin with.  This is a vicious cycle Orly, one that economics will not be able to walk away from in the form we now know it.

Spitzer's picture

Bad for the last few sheep into the dollar bubble.

_underscore's picture

The value of the euro (or even survival, in its current form) is a complete red herring, vis a vis the value/cost of gold in dollars.

It's only a factor, WHILST the euro is seen as competition  for the dollar. Currently, the Euro forms part of a tri-partite play: gold, dollar, euro - you can bounce from one to another

& make money trading - but only because the euro is still (relatively) strong.

If the euro plummeted, or even morphed into a 'southernEuro'  - what would that imply?

The re-ermergence of a DM area and/or the promotion of the Yuan to competitive status (for reserve currency as some point, too..) with the dollar.

 Dollar would then become the 3rd best looking horse in the glue factory.


bushwarcrime's picture

Always pumping gold on a Friday, payday, it seems no?

Don't get me wrong I'm a stacker but wary of the official line.

BlackMagician's picture

Funny how precious metals vs paper (HERE IN THE WEST) is normally/consistently met with suspicion...(IN THE EAST) it is the opposite...just an observation. Buying gold on payday vs savings account at .000001%...would it be so bad?

EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

If you wait until Monday the price is on average always a little higher. I buy on Fridays

lunar's picture

...funny - the more they praise it, the more gold gets hammered - so sit tight on your bullions.

GetZeeGold's picture



Go eat some AAPL bitch.


Don't let the fear of the debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff mar your short term judgment.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

SE Asia, India, Mid East began accumulating physical PMs long ago and prior to any 'Fed announcement about further easing'.

The same entities plus now central bank buying will put increasing pressure on the paper gold brigade.

When China has accumulated sufficient gold (in China's estimation) and announces that they are backing the Yuan with gold, what then MMTers?

francis_sawyer's picture

They'll be labeled an 'axis of evil' nation...


Actually ~ there's a very high tech system that the Israelis & US government have spent trillions on to predict the next wave of 'axis of evil' countries... Here's a picture of the prototype...


Silvertrader's picture

Gold has been in consolidation mode for quite some time now. We should be close to a new break out op the goldprice. I usually trade gold and silver, gold's smaller brother. More volatility means more potential profit. So let the good times begin!

edb5s's picture

8:30 AM smackdown, right on cue!

edb5s's picture

And we're back up to where we started!  Perfectly normal efficient market activity.  Nothing to see here.  I'm sure nobody is making money off of this (every morning).

cranky-old-geezer's picture



Bernanke et al have 100 yrs of (fail) history on their side.  Gold bugs have 5,000 yrs of real history on their side.

Fine, let gold be just a commodity.  But it's the preferred commodity for storing wealth away from banker printing presses.  Not the only one, but the preferred one.  Even bankers prefer it.  They know what their printing press does to THEIR paper currency.  They just hope sheeple don't.

cranky-old-geezer's picture



Btw, I read on wiki where Zimbabwe finally abandoned their currency, using USD now, in frightfully short supply down there.

Funny thing, wiki says Zim govt has to pay as they go now, can't print currency anymore, can't borrow either.

See, printing your own currency eliminates all fiscal restraint.  And we saw what happens eventually when govts can print currency at will.  Hyperinflation and currency collapse. 

"Keeping score" with debt paper on the asset side is just an accounting gimmick. 

Best question Ron Paul could have asked Bernanke:  How much is one of your FRNs worth today compared to 1913?

Answer: about 1 cent, maybe 2 cents.

DavosSherman's picture

CEO of Barrick saying, effectively, ‘gold extraction isn’t really economically feasible at these levels.  New supply isn’t going to come on until at least $3,000 (gold).’  ~Ben Davis King World News


Everything else is noise.

Orly's picture

Please don't hold your breath waiting for it.

Spitzer's picture

Is that a copy and paste job from when gold was at a lofty $1027 ?

I remember that high...It stuck for quite awhile.

BigJim's picture

Supply is largely irrelevant when the annual stock to flow ratio is 60:1... the chief determinant of price is the leveraged 100:1 paper market. When that goes... watch out above.

But I'm not holding my breath for that either. Too many boys have cried wolf on that one in the last 5 years. When it finally does happen I suspect it will be as a thief in the night.

Hmmm. Maybe THAT'S what Jesus was talking about - the breaking of the COMEX.

James_Cole's picture

"CEO of Barrick saying, effectively, ‘gold extraction isn’t really economically feasible at these levels.  New supply isn’t going to come on until at least $3,000 (gold).’  ~Ben Davis King World News"

Hilarious coming from a company thats buying up explorers and just about to open a 3bln operation in DR. 

Every old gold mine on Earth is being opened back up.

$3000 what a joke.