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These Funds Are About To Get Creamed If The Nexen/CNOOC Deal Fails

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In just over one hour the Canadian government will hold a press conference on the troubled Nexen/CNOOC deal: a deal that will make or break many M&A merger arbs or 2012. And judging by the algo reaction in the past few minutes, i.e., the complete collapse in NXY stock, the deal is off. So who is about to get crushed? Below is a sort of all hedge and mutual funds who added the most NXY stock in Q3, i.e., those who decided to pick pennies in front of a steam roller in hopes the Canadian government lets the deal through, with far more downside than upside if said assumption fails. All we can say is: Oops Paulson.... Again.

 

Quite intriguing flash crash (down over 16%) which just happened to coincide with the 200DMA - perfectly normal...

 

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Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:48 | 3043842 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Don't worry, it's just paper.  What's the worst that can happen?

 

Hell, even better, JPM is on there, and that's someone else's paper.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:02 | 3043893 malikai
malikai's picture

By someone else, you mean yourself via taxpayer backstop infinity, no?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:03 | 3043900 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Guesses as to who the next MF Global will be?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:54 | 3044054 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

How many canadian politicians are limited partners in these firms who bet on deal going through.

 

Did Ann Romney  sell her horse and bet on this deal via roth IRA account?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 18:13 | 3044104 malikai
malikai's picture

She's got quite a lovely horse. Here he is in action.

http://i.imgur.com/yY55O.gif

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:02 | 3043898 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

JPM up 3%....

....so the question is, who will be Corzined this time?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:17 | 3043947 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

Your avatar looks a bit like John Mauldin..

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:27 | 3043976 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe this time it will be the big one.....all 401K/pensions get Corzined overnite.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:13 | 3043924 CPL
CPL's picture

The Ontario Teachers Fund Pension Plan.

 

If they fuck up....lol...people fall out of helicopters in Borneo when they fuck with them.  OTFPP is the worlds largest.  There is no larger or better funded plan anywhere.  Nor more serious about their membership and their money.  Think the Hell's Angels and the TO Jamacian posse don't use their investment and divestment services?

 

Let's hope nobody fucks up then.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:42 | 3044015 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Buddy of mine made ~$500,000 on Bre-X....

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:54 | 3043847 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

But but but, Canada is different! (this is what every fellow Canadian tells me)

And I hope this deal fails. Fuck China taking over Canada's businesses.

In other news, China intelligent ``investments``...

http://news.sky.com/story/1022194/china-flattening-700-mountains-to-buil...

China Flattening 700 Mountains To Build City

Yeah, let's forget that tens of millions of apartments and dozens if not hundreds of cities in China are already empty... but eh as long as the slaves work, they don't revolt, amiright?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 18:06 | 3044092 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Wouldn't it be a smart move to let the price on that housing fall so that it became affordable to great mass of people? Why build it and then keep it out of reach? Doesn't make sense.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:52 | 3043856 JeremyWS
JeremyWS's picture

Don't worry VWAP will save them.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:56 | 3043858 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

It's a tough call for the Canadian government. The ideology of the governing Conservative Party is strongly against government ownership of their own national resources and in favor of private sector control. When the 'private sector' in this case turns out to be the Chinese government... well... you just know something (or someone) has to give.

Gentlemen... the envelope(s) please...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 20:56 | 3044508 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

kind of like Chinese with bunch of worthless US Treasuries.

 

or Japanese buying over inflated New York high rises just to lose it all and US bought it back.

 

If Canadians are smart, then they wouuld sell natural resources at super hype prices, then years down the road, buy it all back at fire sale prices.

 

there is no private or public when it comes to natural resources...it is always state-corporations by few elites....states to protect monopoly ownership, corporate to privatize profits.

 

chinese may own it, but when they overpay for assets, they are the losers. especially on Canadian inland which Canadian government can easily confiscate

 

US tried to do it with Citibank and Lehman. flip it to rich asians before ugly truth is revealed.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:53 | 3043859 gdgenius
gdgenius's picture

Ha....Paulson...figures...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:55 | 3043873 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

DE Shaw in NXY as well.   What an ugly unwind if this deal does not go through.   

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:59 | 3043879 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Pennies picked up in front of steamroller... Millions of bucks...

Co-Located Bloomberg terminal [& cognizant recognition capabilities]... PRICELESS...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:00 | 3043886 ekm
ekm's picture

National Post here is talking about "secret service"involvment.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/12/07/ottawa-expected-to-announce...

 

Extract:

Canada’s spy agency raised a red flag on foreign investment by state-owned firms in its annual report earlier this year.

Though CSIS didn’t name specific countries or companies, it said certain state-owned enterprises have pursued what it called opaque agendas or received clandestine intelligence support for their pursuits in Canada.

Harper has said the Nexen-CNOOC deal “raises a range of difficult policy questions.”

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:02 | 3043891 President Palin
President Palin's picture

Dear Canadians,

Learn Mandarin.  You'll need it.  Your emperor will speak soon.

Sat, 12/08/2012 - 09:53 | 3045309 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Dear Amerikans

Learn Russian cause you are there now

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:10 | 3043916 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

O/T but you have to watch CNBS right now/ Santelli is licking his chops!  Chung is pretty good... He's equating the fiscal cliff to "bungee jumping"... I love it!

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:13 | 3043926 beatus12
beatus12's picture

thanks for posting this news but everyone here

is already guessing this is a done deal, of course

Harper is making the announcement sometime

after 4 for obvious reasons - the country is so

angry about this but we are so powerless, but heh

america welcome to your new oil masters as

Li-K. Sh's China Imperial Bank of Commerce

as well as Goldman in downtown Calgary are

thought to have been instrumental in all of  this

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:15 | 3043930 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

There's never been a better time to buy that British Columbia or Toronto house, eh?

- CAR (Canuckistan Association of Realtors)

 

*For a limited time, Re/Max Canada is offering an autographed Wayne Gretzy Jersey with the purchase of an existing home.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:19 | 3043951 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 lulz TIS/ And a free "Heart Monitor"...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:26 | 3043973 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Doesn't matter how many get creamed, it's always good news to the robots.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:31 | 3043986 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I thought the preferred NXYPRB was always a better play....

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:43 | 3044018 walküre
walküre's picture

NXY AH +11.5%

deal is completed. no muppets apply please

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:46 | 3044030 Darkness
Darkness's picture

PLS keep us updated on the sit. 

 

- Blackberry message from Paulson to all his analysts. 

 

Me: DUDE, ARE YOUR SERIOUS??

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 17:51 | 3044044 beatus12
beatus12's picture

I don't how this is connected exactly but Glencore's

takeover of Viterra was suddenly approved this

morning by the China Ministry of Agriculture after

a long stall, rumors have it, China would not

approve until Harper said yes to Nexex deal,

Can you imagine, ending the Wheat Board illegally

that was built by the pioneers with their bare hands,

because it was a deemed staterun, only to

have the oilsands given to a communist military

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 19:32 | 3044235 Enemy101
Enemy101's picture

Harper's lookin out for us- Our only real risk is if the wet noodle left get elected again. That would be a well and truly disaster, communist china influenzing weak left canada.

 

(In any case, why would we sell them the company once when they can just buy our oil forever?) It's not like we want foreign countries coming in and buying our most profitable FV assets. Imagine canada going yeah, lets buy all the casinos in vegas!

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 19:40 | 3044321 Venerability
Venerability's picture

Tyler,

The OTHER group of Shorts about to get creamed are those in Bombardier.

It is a widely held suppostion that the price the Harper government extracted from China for the Nexen approval is promises in blood for big Bombardier orders very shortly up the road, including, perhaps, a substantial C-series order.

Wait and see. 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 21:36 | 3044595 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

And now? They're rich.

Sat, 12/08/2012 - 09:56 | 3045311 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

No actually we've been rich all along, but , unlike you idiots driving whacked out hummers we saved our money for a day like today when we buy your assets for 4 cents on the dollar and then rent them back to you for 2 bucks a dollar.

See - it's all so simple.

Ancient CHiense proverb:

When you flash arounfd like a peacock you get shot by hunter.....

gung hoy fat choy is just another stupid dictator we will fleece....

Sat, 12/08/2012 - 00:17 | 3044959 Northern Lights
Northern Lights's picture

Nay-homa lang loy, gung hey fat choi!

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