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UMich Confidence Plunges, Biggest Miss On Record As Outlook Crashes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

After its biggest miss in four years (following the pre-revision spike to the biggest beat in three years), UMich Consumer Confidence came at 74.5 relative to an 82.0 expectation (biggest miss on record). Hugely down from last month's final print of 82.7, this is the first negative print since July to the lowest since August. Expectations for the future crashed its second largest absolute print on record (-13 to 64.6) to the lowest since Dec 11.  In the typical election year we see a rise in hope and confidence into the election and then a drop off after - it seems we are following that path...

 

 

 

 

 

Average performance of the UMich Confidence data on election years versus this year...

 

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Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:07 | 3042587 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Who needs confidence when you have the con.  

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:12 | 3042621 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

this was the biggest con game in recent history. The UM confidence number I'm convinced was rigged for the president's election. No other number could have been more out of line with reality than this one.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:19 | 3042667 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Wait a damn minute here, everything looked rosy in October...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:32 | 3042743 RobD
RobD's picture

Maybe everyone thought Mitt was going to win and "save" us and therefore the high con number? Or like you said it was rigged, either way we are screwed and maybe the sheep are figuring that out finally.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:37 | 3042772 surf0766
surf0766's picture

You seem surprised...

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:42 | 3042795 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

...not at all. Very predictable from the Chicago political machine.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:07 | 3042588 Stackers
Stackers's picture

2.000 U-Mich students are less confident that there will be a new iphone worth spending their student loan on next year ?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:07 | 3042589 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

fire up those choppers..ben..lol

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:08 | 3042590 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

whoops, that's bad news...sorry, algos aren't programmed to that

 

Eat shit GETCO you fucking ass eating crooks.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:11 | 3042592 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They are all pissed off in Michigan because they are about to be a right to work state. They might actually have to do something.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:31 | 3042738 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Dr. Engali,

Why have right to work?  Shouldn't an employer have the right to have all employees join the union?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 13:28 | 3043142 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Working for a union is working for the government. They just hide behind "companies".

Why shouldn't an employer have the right to fire without fear of repercussion?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:08 | 3042595 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

goes hand in hand with this morning's employment number beat. 

<sarc>

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:08 | 3042596 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

So employment situation "much better than expected", but consumer confidence "much worse than expected".

What is "Baffling with bullshit", Alex?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:08 | 3042602 The Axe
The Axe's picture

no one cares   joke

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:09 | 3042604 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Baffalling me with more BS.. I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WAwuSK36Gw

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:09 | 3042606 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

This indicator is inversely proportional to Smith & Wesson earnings.  Nuff said!

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:17 | 3042653 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

And I am getting a $4.50/share stocking stuffer from Ruger thanks to a special dividend (which just went x-dividend).

Talk of Administration staff meeting with BATF to encourage them to declare semi-autos "destructive divices" will sky-rocket sales in 2013.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:44 | 3042764 RobD
RobD's picture

"Talk of Administration staff meeting with BATF to encourage them to declare semi-autos "destructive divices" will sky-rocket sales in 2013."

 

Is that a joke or do you have a link?

 

Never mind I found it, some guy with "inside" info here is the vid from fox if anyone is interested

 

http://video.foxnews.com/v/2005266599001/

 

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:09 | 3042607 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Hmm.  They finally found the Detroit area codes?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:11 | 3042613 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

After the election they interviewed folks with brains and jobs instead of folks in the ghettos, shockingly they all agreed the US is not on the right path! Contrary to all the reports done pre election in the hoods and ghettos, who said things have never been better living on welfare!

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:11 | 3042622 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

time the market crash then! youve been hoping this mkt to tank since about January,with "chief redemption officer likely to be busy in November" etc...Needless to say the market is about 5% up and 4 weeks away from then.

Man,im gonna also find "rally ends" post from May and Dow about 12,000 if i can/

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:12 | 3042623 bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

time the market crash then! youve been hoping this mkt to tank since about January,with "chief redemption officer likely to be busy in November" etc...Needless to say the market is about 5% up and 4 weeks away from then.

Man,im gonna also find "rally ends" post from May and Dow about 12,000 if i can/

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:14 | 3042638 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They have new rounds of ammo and assault rifles being shipped into Detroit. With that kind of weaponry your bound to have confidence when you go out to get your merchandise.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:28 | 3042722 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

The thing I like most about Fridays on ZH are the comedic posts like this one.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:31 | 3042742 Hohum
Hohum's picture

I think a few ZHers had an orgasm with this number.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 11:35 | 3042750 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Baffle em with bullshit' on steroids, benzo's, and crystal meth from here on out I hope everyone is mentaly prepped for it.

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 12:49 | 3043021 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The UM Con figure has to be one of the biggest cons out there.

Whatever the figure turns out to be, it was done for a reason.

 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 13:45 | 3043203 poldark
poldark's picture

Anyone any idea how much the Fed has printed this year so far?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 13:58 | 3043259 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Wait till the reality of Obama policies set in, there will be pre-emptive firings and retroactive penalties and many more arrests like that Baldwin kid, then guns whipped out on all sides.

Welcome to Syria America, you too have a mafia govt 

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 14:07 | 3043308 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

"Welcome to Syria America, you too have a mafia govt"

 

We have three branches of Govt in the U.S.

The Bankstas, the Mafia, and the Politicians.

Isn't that what the founding Father's set up?

Fri, 12/07/2012 - 16:34 | 3043781 poldark
poldark's picture

Anyone any idea how much the Fed has printed this year so far?

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