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Preview Of The Key Events In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The upcoming week is comparatively less loaded with policy events, though the ongoing fiscal cliff negotiations in the US remain one of the key developments to follow. Important is also the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where Goldman and everyone else now expect the Fed to increase their monthly asset purchase target under the QE3 program to $85bn per month, up from $45bn per month; this will keep the pace of asset purchases constant after the Operation Twist expires at the end of December, as Zero Hedge predicted the day QE3 was announced. There are is a handful of other central bank meetings in emerging economies (Russia, Indonesia, South-Korea, Philippines, Chile) although consensus expects no change to the base-rate in most cases. On the data front industrial production numbers for October will be released around the world including in the Euro-area, US and China. We also get the US retail sales number and December flash PMIs for the Euro-area and China.

The Week Ahead

Monday December 10

  • Russia MPC: We and consensus expect the overnight auction-based repo to remain unchanged at 5.50% from November.
  • Also Interesting: Japan GDP, Turkey GDP, Sweden IP, France & Italy IP, Italy & Spain GDP, Czech CPI, Norway CPI, China Trade Balance, Israel MPC Minutes.

Tuesday December 11

  • US Trade Balance (October): Consensus expects -42.5bn for October, a slight worsening from -41.5bn in September.
  • Indonesia MPC: Consensus expects no change to the reference rate currently at 5.25%
  • Also Interesting: Turkey CA, Hungary CPI, Japan Machinery Orders.

Wednesday December 12

  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (October): Consensus expects 7.9% up from 7.8% in September
  • US FOMC Meeting: We expect that the FOMC will increase the monthly QE purchases to $85bn per month from $40bn per month to keep pace with the purchases under the Operation Twist program which expires at the end of December.
  • Also Interesting: India IP, Germany HCPI, Euro Area IP, UK employment growth, Israel trade balance, Russia trade balance, Mexico IP, Brazil monthly GDP.

Thursday December 13

  • South Korea MPC: Consensus expects no change to the 7-day repo rate currently at 2.75%.
  • Philippines MPC: Consensus expects no change to the overnight borrowing rate currently at 3.5%.
  • US Retail Sales (November): We expect 0.6%mom, Consensus expects 0.5%mom, up from -0.3%mom in October
  • BOJ Tankan (December)
  • Also Interesting: Swiss CB meeting, Poland CA, Spain HCPI, Czech CA, Italy HCPI, Poland CPI, Brazil Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims, Chile MPC

Friday December 14

  • US CPI (November): We expect 0.26%mom, consensus expects -0.2%mom down from 0.1%mom in October
  • US IP (November): We and consensus expect 0.2%mom up from -0.4%mom in October
  • Also Interesting: China Flash PMI, Japan IP, Euro-area Flash Manufacturing PMI, Euro-area CPI, Israel CPI, Argentina CPI, Mexico MPC Minutes, India Wholesale Prices.

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

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Sun, 12/09/2012 - 21:40 | 3047631 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

FOMC on Wednesday is the main market event for the week.

QE4 on the way. PMs to the moon Alice.

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 21:44 | 3047638 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Keep stacking my brothers...keep stacking.

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 21:48 | 3047643 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The week Be Hind... Long $ and short CNBS!

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 22:16 | 3047671 chump666
chump666's picture

Hope so, watching the crowded trade on the Dow and sell on the Nasdaq.

Beast might rally into 2013

Hey my Silvio Berlusconi bet is coming true, look for my old posts re: Berlusconi awaiting in the wings...just like a true dictator.

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 22:29 | 3047688 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

long $. Even the weekly chart is looking bid/ I'm shorting risk. Berlusconi and his bunga bunga parties are just a distraction.

 European Government Bonds | European Government Bonds Yields

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 07:43 | 3048170 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I already shut off Bloomberg TV this morning as one of the babes was gushing about how the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7% and the economy added a gazillion jobs in November.  

DOES BLOOMBERG TV BELIEVE THAT PEOPLE THAT MIGHT VIEW THEIR CHANNEL ARE THE SAME VIEWERS WATCHING REAL HOUSEBITCHES OF WHERE EVER???

Giving CNBS shot at moment but I am sure this CME guy will say something stupid.

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 22:16 | 3047673 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i will be watching events in the Gaza Strip very closely...as well as Egypt and Syria. It appears the Camp David Accords are on the verge of being completely shredded "on the ground and permanently" the (negative) implications of which simply cannot be over-stated. There will be no "novus ordo seclorum" over there. I will also be watching for any "noise" out of France. I like "noise from France and her people." And of course i will be watching the dollar and oil...with an expectation that the dollar will start coming under EXTREME pressure. "Forward" indeed. "to the Front?" is my only question.

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 22:27 | 3047686 chump666
chump666's picture

War will be the rage in 2013.  But the USD and oil should be bid together.  It's equities that will be thrown to the wolfs, more so Europe and Asia: overbought to US markets.  The Fed could front run war with a massive increase in buyups, the QEinfinity IMO was the front run to all out war in the middle east.

The market needs decent volatility to make some cash in it, so, we might see wild swings on all fronts.

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 22:24 | 3047682 jumblies
jumblies's picture

A new attack submarine, HMS Audacious, has been commissioned by the Ministry of Defence in a contract worth £1.2bn.

£1.2bn for a submarine that will make 3000 jobs. That's 400k per job which, over 10 years, is £40,000 per job per year. Of course, in 10 years 40 grand won't buy you a bag 'o pork scratchings, but for now it's at least a Sky subscription.

HMS Audacious? Outrighteous? Outrageous? Austerity?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20660519

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 22:29 | 3047690 chump666
chump666's picture

As long as they keep making this stuff http://www.pussers.com/

damn fine.

Sun, 12/09/2012 - 23:57 | 3047844 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Coming week: MFRJ.  More f'ing ramp jobs.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 02:54 | 3048054 Who is John Galt
Who is John Galt's picture

Hmmm. Sell Gold on the FOMC news? Buy back in after the market selloff / margin call mania?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 03:45 | 3048074 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Another $45 billion per month in eternal printing? That ought to worth 450 dow points to the upside. Wait, is it 1 dow point for each $100 million or each $10 million in monthly printing? Someone please ask the chief accountant at jeffries.  

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 04:51 | 3048105 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

SELL European Insurance Companies.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 07:01 | 3048155 4exNinja
4exNinja's picture

Hilarious to see some Americans accuse China of devaluing their currency when that has been the US's strategy for years...

 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 15:00 | 3049226 dadichris
dadichris's picture

I know right - the US devalues their currency and then accuses other nations of "starting" the currency war LOL

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