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AAPL Slides As The Dow Abides

Tyler Durden's picture





 

UPDATE: In the last few seconds of trading ES jumped 3 points on Buffet comments about Dimon for Treasury and WSJ chatter about Fiscal Cliff progress (ES +4.25pts on day) - and just like that... the gains were gone - the Kaiser Soze market continues...

 

We have officially run out of expletives to describe the volumelessness of the equity trading markets. Today's S&P futures volume was dismal - among the lowest volume days of the year (even including holidays and half-days). Today's range was relatively narrow and while risk-assets in general were highly correlated, there was noise and the liquidity was simply not there. AAPL continued its VWAP-based slide - holding NASDAQ back overall - but with MCD's gains accounting for around half of the Dow's gains on the day (and the S&P getting lifted with every VWAP-driven jerk lower in AAPL), it seems the 'buying' interest was largely absent. Treasury yields ended lower, VIX higher (though well off its highs of the day), high-yield credit practically unchanged, and the USD very modestly lower providing just enough impetus to keep the S&P green on the day (and the month +0.15%). The Industrials and Transports have recoupled at +1.2% on the month while the NASDAQ languishes -0.77% since 11/30. Oil was probably the mover of the day with WTI -0.3% - notably awry of the +0.5% gains in Silver and Oil and +1.1% in Copper. Financials lagged and Materials led as the day came to a quiet end around VWAP with the machines well and truly in charge.

NASDAQ remains anchored by AAPL as the Dow Industrials and Transports recouple on the month. S&P remains buoyed by AAPL hedge unwinds... NOTE: The Dow closed above its 50DMA and 100DMA - but - the 50DMA crossed below the 100DMA in a mini-death-cross

 

For the month, there appears three sector cohorts: Underweight Tech, Discretionary, Materials; Overweight Financials, Industrials; and Marketweight Energy, Utes, and Staples.

 

AAPL dominates the entire trading day as every fund tries to cling to its YTD gains without destroying the market with its unwind - as game theoretical fun continues (we suspect sooner rather than later, the realization of a first mover advantage will take hold and there'll be no looking back)...

 

A shocking lack of stop-runs and dumps in precious metals today as the afternoon appeared dead - for all but WTI which slid from the European close...

 

All-in-all, a pretty quiet day with some noise around the models which reflected a notable lack of liquidity out there. But in general risk all played along sideways today...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: After-hours chatter from Buffett on Dimon for Treasury and WSJ comments on Fiscal Cliff progress pushed SPY up through S&P 500 futures' close - but there appeared to be no follow-through...


 


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Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment jeff314
jeff314's picture

fuck you apple

 

the day will come and it will be fast very fast...

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

AAPL has found support at 520 and is now going to ascend to 550, then 570.

ZH overestimates the number of funds pullling out at this point (much less than ZH pretends) and the whole "DOW rises on AAPL unwinds" meme will soon enough break down.  

Has ZH made a bullish call on anything else than the redneck gloomer prepper staples of PMs, guns, ammo (a new one added to the ZH list through google proficiency), and maybe softs and NG?  Why can't ZH see the technical development of AAP towards a reversal for the rest of the week?  

<crickets>

Or would ZH (finally, after eternity) going long on AAPL go against the pessmistic "drops to zero" meme and maybe upset the "fuck you AAPL" peanut gallery?  Would anyone from that peanuit gallery care to run a company as successful as AAPL for five years or so?  

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WHen you say ZH do you mean just Tyler?

I have told people to spend their dollars since I showed up on everything from WFM to silver.  Currency is dying across the globe.  Buying a talking Elmo for your kid would be a more wise investment than holding dollars at this point.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Mr.  LH.  I do not know who I mean by ZH anymore, because the site is so opaque and anonymous and secretive.  But there is this steady AAPL bashing in the last few months that risks missing important reversals, as the divided yield on AAPL exceeds the 10-year within a comfortable projected growth ratio for little risk of principal loss.  

**

ZH dudes, one must at time challenge the master, and that means the "HYG Tyler" (the highest one of the Tylers, besides the really snarky snide one, who has not made an appearance lately--miss him).

P.S. "HYG Tyler" your daily post morten--would not know how to live without them--is one of the best features of the site.  Keep it up.  Maybe go granular on high yield if you really want to freak out the peanut gallery.  

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:12 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

People on here hate apple because it is the New York Yankees of the stock market. Also pretty much everyone on here owns gold. It is easy to shown that gold has stomped the S&P to death but apple is one of the few assets that can sneer at gold's performance. So the equity guys pound the table with apple and the gold guys hate apple. In reality it makes no sense. Who really cares about apple. I think the battle of the bubbles is between gold and the treasury market. Only one of them is a bubble. I think most people would agree on which one it is.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

Gold is nowhere near a bubble it's just compensating for inflation. I'd also look at student debt apart from bonds.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think we know where everyone on this site stands regarding gold being a bubble.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Apple "ain't gonna" matter soon when the SHTF and the Golden Horde is coming down your street. 

You better hope you can lay down enough suppression fire or those zombies will eat you.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Spending your life playing first-person-shooters in your moms basement and hoping for a zombie apocalypse to make it all worthwhile in hindsight ain't much a life plan....

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL!

No, I play third-person-shooters.  He shot, she reloaded, it blowed up. 

They saw his 5.56 M856 64GR TRACER rounds coming at them.  They (zombie) died after he shot them with his FAL-FN .308.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 20:00 | Link to Comment michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

Just the fact you used hte FAL-FN 308 as an example is kinda funny... a full auto nearly uncontrollable downrange 308 ? I think that 308 is better left for the sniper rifles (M40 marine sniper for example)... and dont use "it has a lot of stopping power" - cause you need to be able to HIT the target to stop it.. the FN FAL recoil is a pain in the ass.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

:-)

No I get it.  The AR 15 was for supression fire and the FN FAL was for dusting the zombies off.  The FAL is useless in auto.  It is not hugely accurate in semi auto.  Maybe a HK91

What I would really want is Lewis Machine Tool .308

http://www.lmtstore.com/complete-weapon-systems-firearms-guns.html?limit=30

http://www.lmtstore.com/complete-weapon-systems-firearms-guns/308-modula...

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Unless US government gives iphones to every government worker how can Apple compete with Samsung with government backing?

 

this is like Ford vs. Toyota with Japanese government helping out the latter with free healthcare.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:13 | Link to Comment ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Read & cry: the banksters' bank just announced your business is in touch with reality as much as your kids' game of monopoly is. 

At this point, debating about AAPL's (or whichever paper promise) sustainability and future trends is as mature as 40 y/o nerds discussing PC-game strategies. 

Holding onto straws of denial...

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

'The sherpas begrudgingly carry homer simpson up springfield's mount 'murderhorn', when his iAAPL's energized powersause-bar entrepreneurs announce to the world... that the iAAPL's-Powersauce`Mac`OS' is the product of past rotten iAAPL's cores, and shredded Chinese fiat paper-- as samsung... renminbi's a yuan'ing after taste?'  

iAAPL has been corner'd like a rat, period! amzn/ msft/ samsung/ etc., etc.,...     

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

you may very well be right, but why should the hedgies et. Al. be allowed an orderly exit when others will not be?  Are they truly smarter or just better connected?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Sofa King
Sofa King's picture

Nice forecast, sounds like a variation of Cramer's 80-100-120 Rule. 

Can we get some Green Arrows from the bag-holders?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Correct me if I'm wrong, but looking at the cash book Apple has, and the investments its Hedge Fund makes (*cough* Treasuries *cough*), Apple as a company[1] has no real interest in its share price. It's got planning permission for Apple2 space-ship Corporate headquarters (pre-paid for), the iRobots are on order, the new factories are coming (with US Government approval!) and the iPhake 5 launches in March 2013, in time for the New MarketTM and iSNAP.

The US Government, on the other hand, does have every interest in that share price, as if it blows, there goes every public servant's 401k, and shit hits the fan. Thus, it's going to be FED backed.

 

 

I admit, I'm not a ninja-graph-precog-reader, so those squiggles could mean a whole lot of "death crosses", "nun bloomers" and "muffin beaters" that I can't read...

 

So, please tell me how I mis-read that one.

 

[1]Note: Apple probably isn't the company you think it is. It's an ideological future-based gambit; there's a reason it mimics cult-like indoctrination and behaviours, and it's members get Knighthoods. *Spooktastic*

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:01 | Link to Comment opnwhlracer
opnwhlracer's picture

I own AAPL Jan 480 puts. I am ahead on them nicely right now. I suspect they will go in the money soon. Weekly charts have a screaming sell signal.  Hold on.....gonna go grab some popcorn.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

AAPL? Other stocks?  Naah, I´ll be buying gold soon!

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I know how much you love gold (and platinum) but if I may advise to keep silver in your thoughts during your next purchase  :)

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I hope AAPL loses every fucking dime.....

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Buffet just needs to fucking piss off already.  Him and Munger are long fucking overdue worm meal.  fuckers.

 

As for Jamie Dimon, i just bought more physical, so eat fucking shit asshole.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

agreud. just die already bitchez.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Buffet needs to take another bath while talking to that CNBC chick.  Someone walks in and throws a hair dryer or toaster in his fetid bath water.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Gut feeling on him is that he's NOT some savy investor and it'll all come out after he's gone.

Just a product, an image to market to the American public that being a bag holder of stocks for decades is the key to wealth.

Fuck it all indeed.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

yeah besides there are plenty of "hedge" funds now that can take the place of buffett and pretend they're actually adding value.  When was the last time you saw a high profile hedge fund actually hedging something?  My money is on the hedge funds you never hear about....or will.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

well, if you define "savvy" as finding a successful family businesses where the founder dies, the estate/family is subject to a 50% death tax, the family doesn't have any liquid assets and is forced to sell the business to pay the tax on the business, and ol' Warren swoops in like a vulture to pick at the firesale carcass, then yes, he's "savvy".

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

I would love to see Mr. Buffet forced to mark his BRK shares to market and pay taxes on the capital gains every 10 years. I mean, it is only fair right?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

If you want to invest in Apple let it be the type you can eat

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

we don't need no steenking volume

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Buffet is like a dog on Dimon's leg.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

They should put Charles Manson in at State.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment The Master
The Master's picture

Well, considering Regina Benjamin is currently Surgeon General, I wouldn't say that your suggestion is that outlandish.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

The Dude abides, man.  The Dude abides.

 

Asian Americans is the proper nomenclature.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

The chinaman is NOT the issue here,

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

I can get you a toe.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

Jamie Dimon for Treasury Secretary? HAHAHA! Laughs all around!

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment HoaX
HoaX's picture

I almost choked on my coffee as well reading that.

 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

SNAAPL  EBT Card   .....    Government program where poor people can invest in America !

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Can someone post a DOW volume chart showing average daily volume tracked over the past few years?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Nasdaq and ES have been wobbly for several sessions/ The Roaches are running out of places to hide their losses...

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Now build another floor under today where tomorrow we can add on another 5 points in pre-market and never go red all day, of course.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

"We have officially run out of expletives..."

have you tried referencing Roman Moroni yet?  "You lousy cork-soakers. You have violated my farging rights. Dis somanumbatching country was founded so that the liberties of common patriotic citizens like me could not be taken away by a bunch of fargin iceholes... like yourselves."

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Santa is, as usual for any December, in the driver's seat.  Expect a stair-step climb before Christmas, with the biggest step up upon announcement of fiscal speed bump compromise.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 18:28 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Crowded trade on the Dow is about to be pulled, funny in the old days traders used to gauge S&P movements. Now it's NASDAQ weakness and Dow strength + HFTs on MA's (with no volume) + gold sells +oil sells + futures crunched down 1% on the Dow (but Asia HAS to sell hard), DAX has gotta blow (Europe is so overbought it's alarming) = a potential 10% to 20 % wipe-out.  The 4% in Nov was nothing.

The cliff won't set it off.

 

 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

ppffffbllllddffftttttttt

That is all about you can say about this market anymore. Eventually bullshit just can't get you any further in a conversation and it just ends.

We are about at that point. The masses collectively say fuck it, I'm out.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment DeficitAlchemist
DeficitAlchemist's picture

Buffet the ex-capitalist seems to have become Obama's outrider for 'Moral tax direction' and 'Illuminati degenrate nominations' for high office, the latest is 'Moby dick Dimon' aka 'can't spot The mammoth Blue whale on the trading floor' Tw*T .... (He also of, it will cost us $2Bn hole.. later for it to be over $9Bn+ in unwinding).. Buffet, since snorting the AIG 'Pay them par' magic marching dust on his GS investment, seems he can't piss in his pants fast enough to do governments bidding.... SELL OUT does quiet seem to cover it.

 

PS easy to vote for taxes for the rich when you poay yourself $100K and roll up collossal corporate dividends only then to say you pay less tax then your secretary.. then volunteer to pay frikkin more you Cnut!

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