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GGBs Soar As Buyback Backfires

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Greece failed to persuade enough of its bondholders to complete the buyback that is so politically mandated by the Troika and so instead of admitting defeat, they have extended the deadline (til tomorrow at 12pm London). Current participation is around EUR26bn vs the EUR30bn target. It appears that more non-domestic investors have participated more than expected and given the buyback's success as a prerequisite for the bank recaps (and next aid tranche), we would expect the rest of the domestic banks to play along - though as JPM notes, they may prefer to hold on to shorter-dated GGBs (as opposed to taking the valuation hit). The bottom line is that the buyback has created an upsurge in price for long- and short-dated GGBs as the 'Greater Fool' theory comes fully into play. Of course, with the Troika making the GGB (and its buyback) now the fulcrum security for Europe's 'break-up' risk, holding out for bigger and better offers seems the game for hedgies at least - there is always the Greatest Fool of EU leaders ready to step in. The paradox, of course, is that the more bonds are being bought the longer the buyback lingers on hopes Greece will keep on bending and keep rising the repurchase price; culminating with these being bought at par and replacing 30bn in old debt with 30bn in new debt. The buyback process has driven prices up dramatically - backfiring considerably on any real gains for the Greek people - but that's hardly the point eh?

 

 

Via JPMorgan:

Media reports suggest the buyback is being extended because participation thus far is running around €26-27bn, short of the roughly €30bn notional target. However, this is not particularly alarming because non-Greek investors are reported to have tendered about €15-16bn, ahead of our estimated breakeven participation rate. Greek banks, on the other hand, have only tendered about €10-11bn and are estimated to retain another €6-7bn which they can tender if needed. Since buyback success is a prerequisite for planned bank recapitalization and a return to ECB repo rather than ELA, we expect Greek banks to tender enough to bring participation to the desired level (around another €3.5bn to get to €30bn notional overall). This will allow Greece and the Eurozone to declare the buyback a success and will unlock Greece’s next €34.4bn loan tranche.

 

 

Updated tender strategy

 

We now know two facts about the GGB buyback. First, participation is running on the low side, which will reduce Greece’s leeway as to accepting offers. Second, Greek banks want to retain some of their holdings, and will likely limit their offers to the minimum needed to meet the overall participation target. The Greek sovereign will likely tolerate this behaviour, since 1) Greece would likely rather fill non-domestic offers if possible, in order to preserve its sway over the GGB investor base, and 2) Greek banks appear to have marked new GGBs at somewhat above market values / exchange prices; tendering would likely cause some marginal writedowns. To be sure, we note that exchange terms do not appear to allow Greece to discriminate between investor type within a particular bond series (Greece will pick a series-clearing price and all offers up to that price will be accepted).1 However, there are 20 different bond series, each of which is a separate auction. Depending on how offers stack up across the series, Greece can discriminate in effect by how it allocates orders across series.

 

We see two ways that investors can benefit from the current situation.

 

First, investors who have not yet tendered should consider tendering long-end bonds at the maximum price. As shown in Exhibit 2, bonds with 15Y+ maturities were still trading well below the maximum exchange price as of Friday 7 December. As we discussed previously, longer-dated bonds (25Y+) continue to represent the best price returns.

 

Second, investors who have made partial offers should submit new, small, additional offers at the maximum price for each particular bond series. If this high-end offer is accepted, it will pull up the clearing price for the entire series (every offer must be filled at the series-clearing price). If this high-end offer is not accepted, old lower-priced offers will still be filled. Although Greece may choose not to hit offers at the maximum price, we view this as a costless option. Previous participation instructions cannot be changed, and one can submit bids in small increments (the minimum denomination to submit bids is €1000). One could also submit new bids at somewhat less than the maximum price to improve probability of acceptance (although with participation running low, we think Greece’s flexibility is limited).

 

Finally, investors who are bullish should retain shorter-dated GGBs (sub 15Y maturity) due to 1) due to strong pull-to-par profile, 2) likely better liquidity vs. longer-dated GGBs after the buyback, and 3) the prospect of eventual OSI in the long term (e.g. 2014). As shown in Exhibit 3, given estimated participation rates, post-buyback investor composition in Greek GGBs is likely to be heavily skewed towards non-domestic investors. This will increase bargaining power and make it more difficult to use collective action clauses (CACs) in future exchanges/restructurings. The voting threshold to use CACs in new GGBs is 75% for the first bondholder meeting and 67% by written resolution

 


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Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

oops....

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Solvent?

Insolvent.

 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

Insolvent

 

While Greece extended the deadline for completing the buyback until tomorrow, it was never in danger of failing. The Greek banks only tendered €10bn in bonds and are still holding €7bn. They will surely tender a portion of these holdings to unlock the next tranche of aid.

You see, the aid is meant for them. The lion's share will be used to recapitalize these same banks. Of course, their recapitalizations needs have changed. The bonds are being carried at 100% of par value plus the value of the income stream from interest payments, but now the banks will only receive about one-third the principal and forgo future income. Now, the banks will require more capital. 

The buyback wrangling is not the issue. Greece's economy is in a free-fall, and it will probably need a 4th bailout before German elections. Europe will continue to be interesting next year.

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/12/06/greece-will-require-a-4th-b...

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment ApollyonDestroy
ApollyonDestroy's picture

no no No No NO NO NOOOO

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The meltdown that began in 2008 resumes now, after dozens of trillions of (mostly) borrowed from the future USD, €, ¥ & RMB were fired in order to save the TBTF banks and allow those who own the governments and regulators the opportunity to buy & sell, often repeatedly, the very equities and bonds that would benefit from the fiat hot beef injection.

Italy is too big a development to ignore, so they can't, and won't ignore it (then comes France). It makes Greece + Spain look relatively minor in comparison.

And then....there's that who China + Japan thing...

Oh wait, I forgot that The Bernank is announcing the Fed will buy more bonds this week. Disregard what I said, for this will surely solve the macro and micro economic sepsis. /sarc

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

"They" are going to try a lot harder from here on out.

If they guess the flow rate to "combat" illiquidity wrong ... which it always is ... Well ... Flow rate to the Moon.  ALice

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"market" green...it doesn't fucking matter.

 

Fuck you Bernanke, you fucking TBTF sucking, printing cock wipe

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's over.

Equity markets are about to tank, the media will erroneously blame fiscal cliff talks for this, as reality actually catches up to how badly the global economy is crumbling.

December 10, 2012 10:20 a.m eastern standard time

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

TIS, don't you have trust that the Santa rally will arrive to wipe all our little troubles away? 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Santa Claus was suffocated in a mountain of fiat.

Weihnachtsmann ist tot, Hündinnen.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

Don't bet on it.  If 2012 proved anything, it's that the central bankers and politicians will do ANYTHING to prevent public panic and capitulation.  They will continue to believe Krugman's Keynesian fantasy that's it's possible to spend our way out of debt.  So, in my opinion, unless you see a Black Swan event that rattles consumer confidence beyond what the propaganda can handle, you will just see a continuation of what we've been seeing....scewed statistics, lying politicians, and complicit media (notice not one headline about the record number added to welfare roles).

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

"Greek banks appear to have marked new GGBs at somewhat above market values"

I.e. par !;o)

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment bluehorsesandal
bluehorsesandal's picture

This Christmas Santa will be resting from exhaustion. It is tuff to rely on EBT card on Thanksgiving to buy Christmas’ gifts…

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Josephine29
Josephine29's picture

I enjoyed the critique of all the "cunning plans" that have somehow left Greece with ever more debt that I read earlier.

In essence what Greece has to do is explained well by these lines from the song Hotel California.

Last thing I remember,

I was Running for the door

I had to find the passage back

To the place I was before

Last year I pointed out that this was a rare view.

I do not recommend this lightly as there are many costs and risks in such a move and I realise that there are hundreds if not thousands of commentators who reject the very idea.

As I wonder about how much they all must regret that, as after all the economic collapse that they predicted post-devaluation has occurred on their watch so to speak I issue the same challenge this year. Greece needs to devalue and default if she is to have a chance of recovery.

What Greece certainly does not need is any more of the “cunning plans” which have hit her in 2012.

 

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/greece-should-stop-the-cunning-plans-and-instead-default-and-devalue-this-christmas/

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

GREEK NEO-NAZI PARTY HQ GOES KA-BOOM, ANARCHISTS TAKE RESPONSIBILITY

http://submedia.tv/stimulator/2012/12/10/greek-neo-nazi-party-hq-goes-ka...

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Did nobody tell the Troika there are rules to every game?

even the games they thought they had made up themselves

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Biter bit.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!